Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season

[YippieKaey]

Yes, I am of course speculating on his interest among other teams around the league. I think the speculation is supported by some evidence though. I think Matthew Tkachuk’s emergence as a true superstar in Florida this year would drive up Wilson’s price because superficially they are similar players. Contracts handed out to guys like Ryan Reaves and Miles Wood also hint to me a high level of interest in players like Wilson. And ultimately most of the higher ups in hockey now played in a more physical era and probably see more value in what Wilson brings despite the numbers suggesting he’s not extraordinary.

Again do you think Toronto would say no to a Nylander for Wilson swap straight up? I don’t. That’s the type of move MacLellan likely isn’t open to given his comments to the media about Wilson’s availability despite it being an overpay in my estimation. And that probably explains why there aren’t any credible trade rumors swirling about, on top of the Capitals typically being tight-lipped about such things.

They're not though. Tkachuk is a super skilled playdriver with absolutely elite scoring, AND a mean streak. Wilson is a decent to pretty good two way forward who hits and fights.

 

[twabby]

They're not though. Tkachuk is a super skilled playdriver with absolutely elite scoring, AND a mean streak. Wilson is a decent to pretty good two way forward who hits and fights.

And that’s why I added the superficial qualifier!

 

[Jags]

Regarding Wilson: I’ve never suggested he’s bad and that’s the reason they should trade him. I’m suggesting he’s good but that his perceived value around the league could return a younger player

This is the same song you used to sing all the time. You just swapped the word "Carlson" with "Wilson" and added some bullshit to the melody. You know, kinda like Vanilla Ice did with Under Pressure, if Under Pressure sucked.

I don't enjoy your deep cuts. They're too introspective and negative. Carlson's overvalued, Wilson's overvalued, defensemen don't improve after puberty...

I like your more upbeat stuff. Play the one where we can get Hertl, and that same one where you changed the name to Marner, and that same one where you changed the name to Pettersson. They're not good songs and you sang them waaayyy too much, but at least they were dreamy and hopeful.

Play the hits, twab.

 

[twabby]

This is the same song you used to sing all the time. You just swapped the word "Carlson" with "Wilson" and added some bullshit to the melody. You know, kinda like Vanilla Ice did with Under Pressure, if Under Pressure sucked.

I don't enjoy your deep cuts. They're too introspective and negative. Carlson's overvalued, Wilson's overvalued, defensemen don't improve after puberty...

I like your more upbeat stuff. Play the one where we can get Hertl, and that same one where you changed the name to Marner, and that same one where you changed the name to Pettersson. They're not good songs and you sang them waaayyy too much, but at least they were dreamy and hopeful.

Play the hits, twab.

Those Carlson and Fehervary takes are aging pretty well TBH. Who knows, maybe I’ll be wrong about Wilson (not bloody likely).

 

[Hivemind]

Keep being you, @twabby

They should have traded Carlson when there was a good opportunity to replace his contributions via free agency, and they should be trading Wilson at this inflection point for the franchise given his upcoming contract.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

All Fever (or any D) needs to do is have one improved season to blow that crackpot theory out of the water.

I hope it’s Twabby’s boy Sandin who finishes this argument with a season where he improves on last year’s performance. Fever should be able to improve also if even minimally.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Those Carlson and Fehervary takes are aging pretty well TBH. Who knows, maybe I’ll be wrong about Wilson (not bloody likely).

You should clarify all those “takes“ before you start taking credit for things…



…and are you saying an extended Wilson is going to suck Ovechkin’s last few years?

 

[twabby]

You should clarify all those “takes“ before you start taking credit for things…



…and are you saying an extended Wilson is going to suck Ovechkin’s last few years?

The takes are:

1. I don’t think Fehervary is going to amount to a quality top 4 option and that his development is pretty much over at this point.

2. Not trading John Carlson for a haul and signing someone like Dougie Hamilton several years ago was a mistake. Dougie loves museums! DC has great museums and lots of them!


With regards to Wilson I think he’s likely going to fall off hard, probably starting in the 24-25 season but maybe next year. The contract wherever he signs will be a mistake since I believe it will be in the 8 x $7.25M range, and will lead fans to discuss how to get it off the books in the front half of the deal as we are currently discussing with players like Kuznetsov, Mantha, and Backstrom. Not trading him when the time was opportune (i.e. now) will been seen as a huge missed opportunity.

 

[koalabear9301]

If I thought there was a serious chance at us competing for a Cup with this roster then I'd be on-board with extending Wilson and dealing with the eventual decline whenever (how I felt when we signed Oshie for 8 years), but nothing about this team's play over the last 5 seasons tells me that's worth it juxtaposed to how much we could get back for him.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The takes are:

1. I don’t think Fehervary is going to amount to a quality top 4 option and that his development is pretty much over at this point.

2. Not trading John Carlson for a haul and signing someone like Dougie Hamilton several years ago was a mistake. Dougie loves museums! DC has great museums and lots of them!


With regards to Wilson I think he’s likely going to fall off hard, probably starting in the 24-25 season but maybe next year. The contract wherever he signs will be a mistake since I believe it will be in the 8 x $7.25M range, and will lead fans to discuss how to get it off the books in the front half of the deal as we are currently discussing with players like Kuznetsov, Mantha, and Backstrom. Not trading him when the time was opportune (i.e. now) will been seen as a huge missed opportunity.

Ahh yes…the imaginary Carlson motherload…and Fever won’t improve…noted.

The Wilson prediction is mundane. Everyone falls off. I bet he produces just fine the next 3 years if he’s got quality linemates.

 

[twabby]

If I thought there was a serious chance at us competing for a Cup with this roster then I'd be on-board with extending Wilson and dealing with the eventual decline whenever (how I felt when we signed Oshie for 8 years), but nothing about this team's play over the last 5 seasons tells me that's worth it juxtaposed to how much we could get back for him.

Exactly this.

They did the right thing essentially flipping Orlov for Sandin this past TDL. The logic was sound: Orlov despite being a very good player and key to their success in the past has likely peaked and was looking for a raise. Maybe that would make sense if this was a team that was right there competing for a Cup, but they instead opted to go with a younger and cheaper option that could help them now but also in the future without an expected decline.

I’d hope they apply this same logic in deciding what to do with Wilson, who will almost certainly be looking for a raise and term.

The Wilson prediction is mundane. Everyone falls off. I bet he produces just fine the next 3 years if he’s got quality linemates.

Why sign a guy to a huge deal if he needs quality linemates to look the part? Shouldn’t he be the guy driving the results, making his teammates better, and producing regardless of his teammates if he’s going to get an expensive long-term deal?

 

[Hivemind]

If I thought there was a serious chance at us competing for a Cup with this roster then I'd be on-board with extending Wilson and dealing with the eventual decline whenever (how I felt when we signed Oshie for 8 years), but nothing about this team's play over the last 5 seasons tells me that's worth it juxtaposed to how much we could get back for him.

Not only how much they could get back, but also how much Wilson's next contract will likely handcuff this team. We already have multiple retirement deals in place for players on the wrong side of their aging curve, adding another one will only restrict the team's ability to field a competitive roster even further.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Why sign a guy to a huge deal if he needs quality linemates to look the part? Shouldn’t he be the guy driving the results, making his teammates better, and producing regardless of his teammates if he’s going to get an expensive long-term deal?

What this “huge deal” you’re predicting?

All good players aren’t only guys who can carry a line by themselves. Some guys are the surgeon and some are the scalpel.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If I thought there was a serious chance at us competing for a Cup with this roster then I'd be on-board with extending Wilson and dealing with the eventual decline whenever (how I felt when we signed Oshie for 8 years), but nothing about this team's play over the last 5 seasons tells me that's worth it juxtaposed to how much we could get back for him.

Ok so first, let’s forget the option of a selloff….Ted won’t allow them to start a mass auction and not at least try to surround Ovechkin with any good talent they can.

Now what do you do with Wilson? What if 5 or 6 years is is the term? Long enough to transition to Wilson as Captain and shepherd in the new group?

It’s either hockey trade or he resigns IMO.

 

[HTFN]

Those Carlson and Fehervary takes are aging pretty well TBH. Who knows, maybe I’ll be wrong about Wilson (not bloody likely).

You pinning the entire "defensemen don't imrpove after 22" thing on Fever is kind of weird when Carlson defies the thesis. Can't have both takes at once.

 

[Hivemind]

You pinning the entire "defensemen don't imrpove after 22" thing on Fever is kind of weird when Carlson defies the thesis. Can't have both takes at once.

Does Carlson? His strongest defensive seasons were the earliest in his career. His point totals improved later in his career, but they improved very much in line with increased powerplay opportunities after Green (plus Shattenkirk & Wideman) left.

 

[HTFN]

Does Carlson? His strongest defensive seasons were the earliest in his career. His point totals improved later in his career, but they improved very much in line with increased powerplay opportunities after Green (plus Shattenkirk & Wideman) left.

His best defensive seasons were his earliest because of his deployment in the "Niskanen Orlov" role, and having Alzner right there with him as a strictly defensive defenseman.

Carlson hasn't changed for the worse, and you failing entirely to note the offensive plus is something to take into account.

If anything, this is another case of "young blood, get out there and handle it" while their legs are still fresh and their clout isn't enough to demand a different role. They did great, but would you truly want that over a 70+ point defenseman? How much of that is on the partrner and the line identity they can take as a result?

If we flip this "defensemen don't improve over 22" idea how many of Carlson's best years have been wasted on playing defense?

 

[Ridley Simon]

Keep being you, @twabby

They should have traded Carlson when there was a good opportunity to replace his contributions via free agency, and they should be trading Wilson at this inflection point for the franchise given his upcoming contract.

“They should”. And then “they should”. Massive Eye Roll.

Same old song and dance from you, big dog. You are always better than everyone else, including the guys that won a Cup.

But you have most of us on ignore, so that you can walk amongst the roses and smell them at your leisure.

I’m not lumping him, with you @twabby. You stand for your beliefs and taken on all comers. Always been impressed with that. Your little buddy Queen Bee can’t seem to handle that, so it will always be you…. Way way way above that.

Keep on keeping on Mr Twabs. Regardless of your arguments, you do them justice by always “standing up” for them. Unlike your — seemingly — partner in crime, the Queen Bee

 

[twabby]

You pinning the entire "defensemen don't imrpove after 22" thing on Fever is kind of weird when Carlson defies the thesis. Can't have both takes at once.

No I’m not. I’m also not saying 100% of defensemen don’t improve over time. I’m saying that on average defensemen don’t improve after their early 20s. There will be some that improve. Rasmus Dahlin is a good example of this. There will be some who only get worse. Tyler Myers is a good example of this. Many will just stay relatively constant. John Carlson is a good example of this: his GAR impacts have in general remained constant since his rookie year, minus one outlier year in 18-19.

But on average, improvement doesn’t happen after age ~21.

With regards to Fehervary my only claim is that there is no reason for me to expect any improvement from him. The statistically most likely scenario is that this is who he is: a third pairing guy who is out of place in a good team’s top 4. Give me a compelling reason that he in particular will buck the trend and I’d of course reconsider my projection of him, but nothing about his first few years in the league has been out of the ordinary.

 

[HTFN]

No I’m not. I’m also not saying 100% of defensemen don’t improve over time. I’m saying that on average defensemen don’t improve after their early 20s. There will be some that improve. Rasmus Dahlin is a good example of this. There will be some who only get worse. Tyler Myers is a good example of this. Many will just stay relatively constant. John Carlson is a good example of this: his GAR impacts have in general remained constant since his rookie year, minus one outlier year in 18-19.

With regards to Fehervary my only claim is that there is no reason for me to expect any improvement from him. The statistically most likely scenario is that this is who he is: a third pairing guy who is out of place in a good team’s top 4. Give me a compelling reason that he in particular will buck the trend and I’d of course reconsider my projection of him, but nothing about his first few years in the league has been out of the ordinary.

But do you not see how that is ultimately just an amalgamation of every player to ever exist and have some questions about that?

It's not a trend, it's a flawed model.

 

[twabby]

But do you not see how that is ultimately just an amalgamation of every player to ever exist and have some questions about that?

It's not a trend, it's a flawed model.

Yes it is a model based on every defenseman. That’s the whole point.

I mean I guess I don’t know how to proceed if this is the argument you’re making. You’re arguing against some very foundational ideas of mathematical statistics by saying that you can’t use trends from a population to project the behavior of another member of that same population. I don’t know how to respond to this, much like I don’t know how to respond if you said 1+1=3 other than to say you’re wrong.

 

[RedRocking]

“They should”. And then “they should”. Massive Eye Roll.

Same old song and dance from you, big dog. You are always better than everyone else, including the guys that won a Cup.

But you have most of us on ignore, so that you can walk amongst the roses and smell them at your leisure.

I’m not lumping him, with you @twabby. You stand for your beliefs and taken on all comers. Always been impressed with that. Your little buddy Queen Bee can’t seem to handle that, so it will always be you…. Way way way above that.

Keep on keeping on Mr Twabs. Regardless of your arguments, you do them justice by always “standing up” for them. Unlike your — seemingly — partner in crime, the Queen Bee

Ah yes, Mr. Twabs - he’s not the hero this forum deserves, but is the one it needs during the summer.

So we'll hunt him. Because he can take it.