Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season

[twabby]

Didn't see this answered. Was it 8yrs for Carlson after the Cup win in 2018?
Oshie's 8yr deal was in 2017, as was Kuzy's.
Backstrom's deal in 2020 was 5yrs, which seems to be the max Gmbm is handing out these days (DK, Strome, etc).

Re: Tom Wilson, we can assume he's probably getting 5yrs at most like everyone else. That would put him at 34yrs old for almost all of his final year.

I hope we're not pissing our pants over that.

Why would Tom Wilson accept a contract term that would put him at 35 when it ends? It would be incredibly risky for Wilson to let himself to re-enter the market as a 35 year old with his mileage and the 35+ contract rules for his next deal instead of just cashing in now and securing his 30-37 year old seasons with a max term deal, which I have no doubt someone will pay him. It’s why I have no doubt that if Wilson is re-signed it will be for the full 8 years, maybe 7 years.

If GMGM says 5 years is all he’s comfortable giving out then that’s fine, but if he’s also serious about not letting Wilson walk then I think he’s going to have to give him a much higher AAV to compensate. Close to $9 million AAV would be my guess in that case. No thanks to that.

 

[g00n]

Why would Tom Wilson accept a contract term that would put him at 35 when it ends? It would be incredibly risky for Wilson to let himself to re-enter the market as a 35 year old with his mileage and the 35+ contract rules for his next deal instead of just cashing in now and securing his 30-37 year old seasons with a max term deal, which I have no doubt someone will pay him. It’s why I have no doubt that if Wilson is re-signed it will be for the full 8 years, maybe 7 years.

If GMGM says 5 years is all he’s comfortable giving out then that’s fine, but if he’s also serious about not letting Wilson walk then I think he’s going to have to give him a much higher AAV to compensate. Close to $9 million AAV would be my guess in that case. No thanks to that.

This is just your biased opinion. Here's mine: I seriously doubt Wilson demands 8yrs or else he walks. I think he has more connection to this franchise than that.

And I don't think he asks for 9M/yr unless the cap increases greatly. That nearly doubles his cap hit and would put his salary in the top 35-40 AAV throughout the league.

We'll probably know by the TDL. If the team is out of it again it will be Orlov 2.0. TW will either have an extension or be traded to a contender for a massive TDL desperation haul, depending on his willingness to fit within Gmbm's seeming 5yr contract limit.

That said, if he can score at a 30 goal clip and continue to mindf*** the entire NHL I wouldn't mind 9M/yr for 5yrs. Not at all.

 

[twabby]

This is just your biased opinion. Here's mine: I seriously doubt Wilson demands 8yrs or else he walks. I think he has more connection to this franchise than that.

And I don't think he asks for 9M/yr unless the cap increases greatly. That nearly doubles his cap hit and would put his salary in the top 35-40 AAV throughout the league.

We'll probably know by the TDL. If the team is out of it again it will be Orlov 2.0. TW will either have an extension or be traded to a contender for a massive TDL desperation haul, depending on his willingness to fit within Gmbm's seeming 5yr contract limit.

That said, if he can score at a 30 goal clip and continue to mindf*** the entire NHL I wouldn't mind 9M/yr for 5yrs. Not at all.

Wilson entering this year without an extension or being traded is probably the worst scenario possible. A TDL trade guarantees no significant roster player would come in return. And it would also give Wilson a ton of leverage to just test the UFA waters the closer they get to next offseason. I think they need to have a decision made one way or another by the beginning of training camp.

I don’t think Wilson will get $9 million AAV but that’s also because I don’t believe he’s going to take a short-term deal. I’m sure Wilson wants to stay in DC and loves it there but there are business and family considerations as well. His agent is going to be in his ear until the moment he’s signed. It’s possible Wilson just takes less than he could get elsewhere but is he really going to risk not having a NHL job at age 35? Seems highly unlikely to me.

 

[um]

Wilson entering this year without an extension or being traded is probably the worst scenario possible. A TDL trade guarantees no significant roster player would come in return. And it would also give Wilson a ton of leverage to just test the UFA waters the closer they get to next offseason. I think they need to have a decision made one way or another by the beginning of training camp.

Yep. And another stinker season for the Caps may hurt Wilson's bond with the current Caps, not many UFAs sign up for rebuilding teams unless they are overpaid. I'd rather get that top line player now, rather than draft picks in March.

Especially because I think this team is one mediocre Ovechkin season away from collapsing into lottery territory. Ovechkin can't carry this team alone anymore. Kuzy was supposed to be that guy, but here we are.

 

[g00n]

So we're now at the point we want to trade 29 yr old RW1 unicorn because we're afraid of the potential last 3 years on an imaginary deal and we want a replacement top liner instead.

This just sounds like people who want to trade Tom Wilson because reasons.

 

[Vilica]

So we're now at the point we want to trade 29 yr old RW1 unicorn because we're afraid of the potential last 3 years on an imaginary deal and we want a replacement top liner instead.

This just sounds like people who want to trade Tom Wilson because reasons.

I think a bit of this is colored by the long-term contract we already gave out to a fan-favorite RW that covered most of his 30s in TJ Oshie. At the time Oshie signed, before the 17-18 season, Ovechkin had 4 years left on his 13yr deal and was going into his age-32 season, Backstrom had 3 years left on his 10yr deal and was going into his age-30 season, and Kuznetsov was about to sign his 8 year deal, and was going into his age-25 season. If that was the competitive landscape in which Wilson was about to sign his deal, nobody would be clamoring to trade him going into the last year of his deal, just like nobody was trying to trade Oshie before 16-17.

Oshie's contract has been fine through 6 years (when he's been healthy), and he's aged relatively well. The last two years of his contract are still going to be painful. Based on the Oshie contract, we were undoubtedly prepared to compete for the first half of his contract, and we don't seem to be in a similar spot for Wilson.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Orlov wanted 8 years and what did he end up with the Canes. I wonder if he wishes he took the Caps offer before the trade.

2 years...

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Friendly reminder that Brooks Laich once said that NHL players don't just suddenly go from being solid to suck, its always an undisclosed injury behind those big drops in performance, that NHL players play through injuries far too often that impact their performance, and fans don't always see these things. It checks out.

We've all discussed the "Kuzy don't care" theory plenty, but I for one and expecting a nice bounce back season from him under Carby.

They may end up having to hold onto him but out of principle I would like to see him moved. Not big on keeping players around who don’t want to be here and who put an embarrassing effort in to end the season.

 

[um]

So we're now at the point we want to trade 29 yr old RW1 unicorn because we're afraid of the potential last 3 years on an imaginary deal and we want a replacement top liner instead.

This just sounds like people who want to trade Tom Wilson because reasons.

I just want to enquire if Nylander or other top line players are available for Wilson. I’m not into giving Wilson away for futures.

And I don’t understand why Wilson has this untouchable label on him, especially given where the Caps are right now.

 

[twabby]

So we're now at the point we want to trade 29 yr old RW1 unicorn because we're afraid of the potential last 3 years on an imaginary deal and we want a replacement top liner instead.

I'd alter the "3 years" and make it "7-8 years" but yes you pretty much have it nailed down.

 

[HTFN]

I just want to enquire if Nylander or other top line players are available for Wilson. I’m not into giving Wilson away for futures.

And I don’t understand why Wilson has this untouchable label on him, especially given where the Caps are right now.

You will never know, though. If the Caps have kicked the tires on Nylander, you and I both know they might want Wilson back. There's either a deal there or there's not, and right now there's not, so like...

what report are you expecting to see? Trade markets don't work that way, you don't know if it's happened or not.

 

[um]

You will never know, though. If the Caps have kicked the tires on Nylander, you and I both know they might want Wilson back. There's either a deal there or there's not, and right now there's not, so like...

what report are you expecting to see? Trade markets don't work that way, you don't know if it's happened or not.

I don't know why you are brining up reports. I'm just responding to posters who don't think its a good idea.

 

[HTFN]

I don't know why you are brining up reports. I'm just responding to posters who don't think its a good idea.

Because the premise of your post is that you want to have the team inquire, i.e. just make rough talk, about what the deal structure would look like and the failure to make a deal happen doesn't mean that the inquiry wasn't made.

For all we know they want Wilson+++ and it's a joke phone call worth hanging up on immediately. It seems like nothing happened because nothing happened but you don't know where they were testing the waters, or how hot that water got before they had to pull out.

 

[Raikkonen]

Oshie was injury prone long before current Wilson's age

I would not compare their situations

 

[Random schmoe]

I think there is sufficient data to create a trend. But more importantly I think there is sufficient data to deny that the trend is steady improvement throughout the 20s as many have suggested before. That trend is not suggested by the data at all.

GAR tries to account for everything on-ice. Hockeyviz’s model actually tries to control for coaching effects as well. They’re not perfect, but nothing ever is.

For the record Twabby you've used the terns "improve" and "develop" interchangeably, and those are not necessarily synonyms.

Also, what these models measure are not improvement or development. They are pure statistical measurements. A player's GAR/GSVA/whatever may change up or down based on numerous factors that have little to do with their 'improvement' or 'development'.

I don't have access to much of these advanced stat options historical data, but I'm guessing Erik Karlsson's numbers were better in the 2022-23 season than they were in recent prior ones. Did he start 'developing' again? No, he just got further past his injury and his offensive numbers were better. (He was still a disaster defensively.)

If you were to say that "Per the model, on average, an NHL defenseman has their peak <insert stat here> before the age of 23" it would be accurate.

 

[Brian23]

RIP Twabby.

 

[Langway]

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

RIP Twabby.

No expert on worth in the NHL but I’d rather have Wilson on my team than not.

 

[DWGie26]

I like this move and contract a lot. Less AAV than I expected. Less term than i expected although 7 years is a lot. As the Cap goes up this will look like a very good deal. And we need him for culture, skill, and intangibles. Well done GMBM.

 

[895]

I like this move and contract a lot. Less AAV than I expected. Less term than i expected although 7 years is a lot. As the Cap goes up this will look like a very good deal. And we need him for culture, skill, and intangibles. Well done GMBM.

It's less term and less AAV than expected? What on earth were you expecting? 8x8m?

 

[JayBeagleFanAccount]

It’s actually baffling how the nostalgia of 2018 has completely ruined this team. Every player on that squad that has been extended by bowel movement has been given an albatross contract and thanks to that we have no roster flexibility and this Wilson deal just adds to the pile. Why is Wilson being described as a “player who helps you win” when this team is obviously not going to be winning shit for years. It’s time to move on from these overpaid bums and get some new blood on the team and in the front office.

 

[Ridley Simon]

It’s actually baffling how the nostalgia of 2018 has completely ruined this team. Every player on that squad that has been extended by bowel movement has been given an albatross contract and thanks to that we have no roster flexibility and this Wilson deal just adds to the pile. Why is Wilson being described as a “player who helps you win” when this team is obviously not going to be winning shit for years. It’s time to move on from these overpaid bums and get some new blood on the team and in the front office.

Seriously sir — if this team “is obviously not going to be winning shit for years”, then why do you care!?

Wilson is a fan favourite, is a truly good power forward, is extremely entertaining to watch, and is a leader of men.

Why all the angst?

 

[JayBeagleFanAccount]

Seriously sir — if this team “is obviously not going to be winning shit for years”, then why do you care!?

Wilson is a fan favourite, is a truly good power forward, is extremely entertaining to watch, and is a leader of men.

Why all the angst?

because he stinks and it’s awful asset management, why are people celebrating a terrible deal? The goal of a team in the NHL should be to win, not sign terrible deals because the fans like the player.

The way fans talk about Wilson is actually so funny, since you can’t actually pinpoint when he does well (not a lot), they make up platitudes like says he’s a good leader or “hard to play against”, this deal is just terrible and it a perfect summation of everything wrong with bowel movements strategy. If i was a fan of a rival team i’d be laughing my ass off at the caps right now.

 

[kicksavedave]

If i was a fan of a rival team i’d be laughing my ass off at the caps right now.

Every sane fan of rival teams wish they had TW on their side, so, this is wrong.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

because he stinks and it’s awful asset management, why are people celebrating a terrible deal? The goal of a team in the NHL should be to win, not sign terrible deals because the fans like the player.

The way fans talk about Wilson is actually so funny, since you can’t actually pinpoint when he does well (not a lot), they make up platitudes like says he’s a good leader or “hard to play against”, this deal is just terrible and it a perfect summation of everything wrong with bowel movements strategy. If i was a fan of a rival team i’d be laughing my ass off at the caps right now.

“He stinks”…