Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season

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CapitalsCupReality

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Hockey is also such a random sport that even if you have big spenders it's no real guarantee of success. Half the teams make the postseason and once you get in it becomes kind of a crapshoot depending on factors like a hot goalie, injuries, how the referees feel like on a given night, and so on.

A luxury tax would be a much better alternative.
You’re making the case against yourself. If it’s so random….better off not blowing that money with silly expensive overspending. The owners saved themselves from themselves with the cap.

Looking at the NBA model, the only teams that go into the luxury tax are championship level teams that built organically. The tax is still rather prohibitive and teams actively make moves to avoid it (OKC trading Harden comes to mind), but it's more used to help teams retain talent than it is to "buy a championship".
KD to GS wasn’t just that? To retain a true big 3 you probably have to overspend eventually. NBA had 9 teams paying a luxury tax bill.
 
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usiel

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Looking at the NBA model, the only teams that go into the luxury tax are championship level teams that built organically. The tax is still rather prohibitive and teams actively make moves to avoid it (OKC trading Harden comes to mind), but it's more used to help teams retain talent than it is to "buy a championship".
Seems like the latest NBA cba is putting the sleeper hold on the super teams which 'should' help.
 

koalabear9301

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You’re making the case against yourself. If it’s so random….better off not blowing that money with silly expensive overspending. The owners saved themselves from themselves with the cap.


KD to GS wasn’t just that? To retain a true big 3 you probably have to overspend eventually. NBA had 9 teams paying a luxury tax bill.
KD to Golden State was only possible because the salary cap jumped up by $24m that offseason due to new TV deals (player's association had the option to have that cap increase be an additional $5m year over year, they voted to have it all take place that offseason). Would've never happened under normal circumstances.

6 of those teams that paid the tax were building around core players they drafted/developed and signed to extensions (Denver with Jokic and Murray, Boston with Tatum and Brown, Dallas with Luka, GSW with Steph/Klay/Dray/Poole, Bucks with Giannis and Middleton, and Phoenix with Booker). Even the ones that got there by attracting marquee free agents got those free agents in the first place by organically building competitive rosters beforehand. LeBron and the Lakers are literally the only exception here.
 

usiel

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I don't see any reason to change ho the NHL works re: CBA/salary cap.

I do tend to be more on the owner side as long as the talent is distributed across large/small market teams. Not because I'm a fan of the super rich. As far as the players they are ultimately simply entertainers. They lived in a blessed time of history that they can play an athletic game and earn generational wealth.
 

RedRocking

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I have yet to see a compelling argument for a change in the NHL.
To me the best argument for having a soft cap is keeping contending teams together longer. As has been pointed out, teams like the Warriors and the Nuggets are able to keep teams together that were built largely through the draft. If you’re able to keep strong teams together, it creates better rivalries, and allows for fans to develop love/hate relationships with perennially successful teams (e.g., Yankees, Lakers). Like it or not, these factors always benefit and generate interest in sports leagues.

Putting our fan biases away - imagine if TB didn’t have to keep jettisoning players from its Cup teams. Or out West, if the Avs wouldn’t have had to immediately dismantle a tremendous Cup team. A soft cap at least allows for that possibility. Teams can decide if they want to pay a very steep price to go that route.

We want to see best on best battling for championships. Parity is all fine and good - until you end up with this year’s lopsided SCF. Hockey’s inherent randomness already provides a good deal of parity. Further knee-capping well constructed teams, or teams that have to pay superstars makes the best matchups even less probable. I’d rather see years of McDavid vs MacK, for instance, on great teams battling in WCF - it’s good for the game.

As we have seen, the soft cap in NBA (which is getting tighter under this new “apron” scheme) doesn’t automatically mean owners are willing to pay the luxury tax. Even in big markets. There was significant gnashing of teeth in these parts over signing Draymond to his new deal, and they still might eventually have to move Klay to lower their luxury tax burden. It really only makes sense if you are winning team looking for more shots at titles. So I don’t think we’d necessarily see every big NHL market habitually going over the cap. Heck, it may even help some Canadian teams which have to pay a premium for FA’s as it is.

The super team issue in the NBA has less to do with the cap structure, and more to do with player empowerment - guys forcing their way out of situations. That mindset hasn’t happened in the NHL yet - maybe Eichel will inspire McDavid to want out in 2 years…who knows.
 
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g00n

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I'm not sure what part of "50% of revenue to each side" people don't understand.
 

twabby

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Nylander near the top on both shot creation and playmaking metrics that were built on A3Z microstats. Hockeyviz also has Nylander as an above average shooter and “setter”. No Capital cracks either list except Kuznetsov at #38 in playmaking.

Nylander is still the guy MacLellan should be aggressively targeting if they want an impact player for the next several years.
 

StephenPeat

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Over 20 years ago we gave Jagr a $10mill contract. You cant say its OK Ovie and Sid still make less then that. Now do all the other sports salaries since year 2000... its criminal what the owners did to hockey players.
You’re not thinking correctly. Does Jagr get that contract with a Salary Cap in place? That’s precisely why it’s necessary.
 
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StephenPeat

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So ~5 teams can overspend? Hard pass.
We all know it would be one team and they’d still manage to lose every year.

That’s what makes hockey more interesting than other sports, you can’t just buy success.

The thought of that teams hats/jerseys becoming as ubiquitous as Yankees hats is going to make me vomit in a gas mask.

That aside, a luxury tax is a horrible idea in hockey. The Salary Cap is already flawed, a luxury tax is an acquiescence to those flaws and a candid agreement to actively exploit those flaws to the maximum to the detriment of the sport itself.
 
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YippieKaey

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I get the allure of having a league full of superteams. But that costs money and owners will want a cap.

As a european, it's really cool seeing homegrown talent, from the city the team is in, join the elite team and win championships. It (along with lower ticket prices) also likely explains the more enthustiastic fan support in most european leagues.
 
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twabby

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Offseason doldrums so have some more numbers. Andy and Rono are a pair of Czech guys who do their own analysis. Apparently Andy works in the Czech league so he’s at least somewhat qualified.

The major weaknesses of Dylan Strome as described by Blackhawks fans were that he was poor defensively and in transition, and that he was carried by players like Kane and DeBrincat. These assertions weren’t supported by the numbers before last year, and they aren’t supported by the numbers now. He’s a very good player. Maybe not a 1C on a contender but a strong 2C on one.

Strome is a great example of why I think focusing on attributes such as skating or size instead of looking at impacts is a big mistake. In particular I think speed is overemphasized right now and teams should be looking to exploit this by targeting players who might not be the greatest skaters but show excellent impacts. Strome was one of these players and Washington is benefitting greatly because of it.
 

HTFN

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Offseason doldrums so have some more numbers. Andy and Rono are a pair of Czech guys who do their own analysis. Apparently Andy works in the Czech league so he’s at least somewhat qualified.

The major weaknesses of Dylan Strome as described by Blackhawks fans were that he was poor defensively and in transition, and that he was carried by players like Kane and DeBrincat. These assertions weren’t supported by the numbers before last year, and they aren’t supported by the numbers now. He’s a very good player. Maybe not a 1C on a contender but a strong 2C on one.

Strome is a great example of why I think focusing on attributes such as skating or size instead of looking at impacts is a big mistake. In particular I think speed is overemphasized right now and teams should be looking to exploit this by targeting players who might not be the greatest skaters but show excellent impacts. Strome was one of these players and Washington is benefitting greatly because of it.

I think it more just goes back to the Carbery quote from his hiring about speed vs. pace, and some fans don't fully get that.

Bad footspeed but great reads and linemates with quality zone entry skills makes it hard to tell who is carrying the load (but fans are often obnoxious and binary about these things instead of seeing 3 players working together). Ultimately it's all still about understanding and executing your role, and Strome's is to move the puck and make the line work.
 

Hivemind

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Strome is a great example of why I think focusing on attributes such as skating or size instead of looking at impacts is a big mistake. In particular I think speed is overemphasized right now and teams should be looking to exploit this by targeting players who might not be the greatest skaters but show excellent impacts. Strome was one of these players and Washington is benefitting greatly because of it.
I interpret slightly differently.

Focusing on attributes like skating and size can matter, they just don't matter more than results do. And, more importantly, the fan eye test scouting report is the least reliable of all. Fans are notoriously terrible at grading defense, and they're even spotty about grading raw attributes (being unable to separate skating speed vs pace, only judging skating speed on plays where a player has a full head of steam as opposed to more typical plays, etc).
 
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HTFN

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I interpret slightly differently.

Focusing on attributes like skating and size can matter, they just don't matter more than results do. And, more importantly, the fan eye test scouting report is the least reliable of all. Fans are notoriously terrible at grading defense, and they're even spotty about grading raw attributes (being unable to separate skating speed vs pace, only judging skating speed on plays where a player has a full head of steam as opposed to more typical plays, etc).
And at that point there are so many factors. The team's breakout structure and zone entry strategy matters, whether forwards are getting quality touches from their defensemen to make transition plays with any chance of success, etc.

When things like that change from team to team, it's not always simple. Like, speed and transition is important but if you're the only fast transition force on your team you just end up beating all your linemates up the ice and getting funneled into coverage situations, like Vrana would do. Making reads and filling lanes accurately can make up for foot speed a lot of the time if the pace is there. I'm only guessing but I think the smart money says Strome got a lot better outlet support in Washington than he had elsewhere, which gave him time to be successful in turn.

Just about every passing sport recognizes the object can move faster than the people playing the game, and quality teams nearly always embrace that.
 

Calicaps

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Offseason doldrums so have some more numbers. Andy and Rono are a pair of Czech guys who do their own analysis. Apparently Andy works in the Czech league so he’s at least somewhat qualified.

The major weaknesses of Dylan Strome as described by Blackhawks fans were that he was poor defensively and in transition, and that he was carried by players like Kane and DeBrincat. These assertions weren’t supported by the numbers before last year, and they aren’t supported by the numbers now. He’s a very good player. Maybe not a 1C on a contender but a strong 2C on one.

Strome is a great example of why I think focusing on attributes such as skating or size instead of looking at impacts is a big mistake. In particular I think speed is overemphasized right now and teams should be looking to exploit this by targeting players who might not be the greatest skaters but show excellent impacts. Strome was one of these players and Washington is benefitting greatly because of it.

First off, I think Strome was and is a terrific pick up for the Caps. Second, IDGAF about these Czech guys one way or the other.

But what's fascinating to me is the idea that "Impact" is somehow an objective measure. You decided long ago what you consider to be "impactful" and have gauged players according to that wholly subjective metric ever since while also treating "Impact" as a universal variable. But it's not. For instance, you regularly suggest that Wilson isn't an impact player even though franchises have restructured their rosters based largely on needing to gameplan for Tom. To me--and to teams and fan bases around the league--Wilson is a hugely impactful player. He's not just some sort of Reeves-light; he's a difference maker whosecoaches and teams actively account for when facing the Caps.

By contrast you say Nylander is an impact guy. I don't disagreem He's a gamer and clearly a guy teams think about when strategizing for the Leafs. But do they think of him differently than any other really good playmaking1/2W? I doubt it. (And I think Nylander is a terrific player.)

Impact isn't always in the numbers.
 
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