Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season

[Roric]

Doesn't boston need a new C now with bergeron gone?

 

[Ridley Simon]

Doesn't boston need a new C now with bergeron gone?

I’d take DeBrusk and Carlo. Will add some futures w Kuz.

Please and thank you

 

[um]

Hockey is also such a random sport that even if you have big spenders it's no real guarantee of success. Half the teams make the postseason and once you get in it becomes kind of a crapshoot depending on factors like a hot goalie, injuries, how the referees feel like on a given night, and so on.

A luxury tax would be a much better alternative.

Hard to call it a crap shoot when the same teams are winning or coming close year after year.

Any team can win a round, no one is fluking a cup win.

 

[twabby]

First off, I think Strome was and is a terrific pick up for the Caps. Second, IDGAF about these Czech guys one way or the other.

But what's fascinating to me is the idea that "Impact" is somehow an objective measure. You decided long ago what you consider to be "impactful" and have gauged players according to that wholly subjective metric ever since while also treating "Impact" as a universal variable. But it's not. For instance, you regularly suggest that Wilson isn't an impact player even though franchises have restructured their rosters based largely on needing to gameplan for Tom. To me--and to trams and fan bases around the league--Wilson is a hugely impactful player. He's not just some sort of Reeves-light; he's a difference maker whosecoaches and teams actively account for when facing the Caps.

By contrast you say Nylander is an impact guy. I don't disagreem He's a gamer and clearly a guy teams think about when strategizing for the Leafs. But do they think of him differently than any other really good playmaking1/2W? I doubt it. (And I think Nylander is a terrific player.)

Impact isn't always in the numbers.

I’m not the one who decided GAR models were useful. Their creators did. They showed how reliable these models are predicting future performance and what the flaws are with these models. I’m much more willing to accept the results from models that are rigorously tested and are transparent when they miss.

Regarding Wilson: I’ve never suggested he’s bad and that’s the reason they should trade him. I’m suggesting he’s good but that his perceived value around the league could return a younger player who has either proven to be more impactful according to objective models, or has a much higher ceiling according to prior impacts. I’m also suggesting that he’s likely to enter a decline (if he hasn’t already) as most players do as they enter their 30s. I’m also suggesting that I’d much rather the Capitals not be the ones on the hook for an 8 x $7.25 million contract (this is my official estimate if he re-signs, take it to the bank!) for a declining player.

I can’t emphasize this enough: I don’t care what fans think of players and their impacts. I have no reason to believe that the Capitals fanbase here or elsewhere is any more able produce a fair evaluation of Tom Wilson than Chicago fans were in producing a fair evaluation of Dylan Strome. I think fans are naturally going to have a blind spot when it comes to Wilson because of all of the entertaining shenanigans he does.

If the argument is that other teams don’t gameplan for Nylander then how is that anything but another point in favor of targeting him? He’s shown clear high-end offensive impacts throughout his career. If that somehow flies under the radar to opposing teams then great, he should be even more productive!

 

[DWGie26]

I’m not the one who decided GAR models were useful. Their creators did. They showed how reliable these models are predicting future performance and what the flaws are with these models. I’m much more willing to accept the results from models that are rigorously tested and are transparent when they miss.

Regarding Wilson: I’ve never suggested he’s bad and that’s the reason they should trade him. I’m suggesting he’s good but that his perceived value around the league could return a younger player who has either proven to be more impactful according to objective models, or has a much higher ceiling according to prior impacts. I’m also suggesting that he’s likely to enter a decline (if he hasn’t already) as most players do as they enter their 30s. I’m also suggesting that I’d much rather the Capitals not be the ones on the hook for an 8 x $7.25 million contract (this is my official estimate if he re-signs, take it to the bank!) for a declining player.

I can’t emphasize this enough: I don’t care what fans think of players and their impacts. I have no reason to believe that the Capitals fanbase here or elsewhere is any more able produce a fair evaluation of Tom Wilson than Chicago fans were in producing a fair evaluation of Dylan Strome. I think fans are naturally going to have a blind spot when it comes to Wilson because of all of the entertaining shenanigans he does.

If the argument is that other teams don’t gameplan for Nylander then how is that anything but another point in favor of targeting him? He’s shown clear high-end offensive impacts throughout his career. If that somehow flies under the radar to opposing teams then great, he should be even more productive!

The thing about Wilson is that he brings so many intangibles beyond fancy stats. That probably limits his ceiling in terms of comp and AAV hit, but his skill set is very unique and to your point he may be overvalued by others meaning a good haul for us.

I too worry about yet another anchor contract, but we are feeling a lot of pain right now with OV, Backstrom, and Oshie all of whom have huge contracts at an old age. That is a lot of old guys on bad contracts, but that was the decision that was made after the cup. That problem largely goes away once those three are gone. This makes me worry much less about a long term contract for Wilson (and only JC74) will be trailing along. We’ll be younger everywhere else as we go through the re-tool / transition.

 

[twabby]

The thing about Wilson is that he brings so many intangibles beyond fancy stats. That probably limits his ceiling in terms of comp and AAV hit, but his skill set is very unique and to your point he may be overvalued by others meaning a good haul for us.

I too worry about yet another anchor contract, but we are feeling a lot of pain right now with OV, Backstrom, and Oshie all of whom have huge contracts at an old age. That is a lot of old guys on bad contracts, but that was the decision that was made after the cup. That problem largely goes away once those three are gone. This makes me worry much less about a long term contract for Wilson (and only JC74) will be trailing along. We’ll be younger everywhere else as we go through the re-tool / transition.

There needs to be some discussion of the tangible benefits Wilson brings and why his inclusion on the team going forward on a long, expensive contract is preferable to the alternative.

I keep hearing things about how teams have to specifically gameplan for Wilson but how has that really manifested in recent postseasons?

Carolina played their game and eventually won the battle of attrition against Washington. Wilson certainly had a good series but can we really say his inclusion altered Carolina’s gameplan at all? They knocked Oshie out of the series on a dirty hit so deterence certainly wasn’t a factor. They were relentlessly aggressive all series so Wilson’s physical game didn’t really seem to alter much either.

The Islanders completely dominated the Capitals from the start. Can we really say the Islanders suffered at all because Wilson was on the opppsition? Similarly Boston controlled the series against Washington and showed no signs of worrying about Tom Wilson. Florida was a mulligan because of the ACL injury, though I do think it’s noteworthy that Washington played its best series since 2018 and that was while Wilson was on the shelf.

The Rangers may have thrown a hissy fit at the time when Wilson ragdolled Panarin but they also followed that up with a trip to the conference finals the following year and are a consistent playoff team now. And Pittsburgh’s recent puzzling moves driving them into the ground like trading for Granlund, playing Jeff Carter way too many minutes, and overspending on guys like Bryan Rust have little to do with Tom Wilson.

There are downstream effects to having Wilson on a long inefficient contract. Being unable to sign good free agents, being unable to extend your own good players to long-term deals and being forced to bridge them, and making trades to improve the team prohibitively expensive. Yes other bad deals will be off the books soon but why sign a deal knowing it won’t age well unless the contention window is right now?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Bottom line, Tom Wilson is one of their few good top-6 players. They need more of those, not less.

I don’t see a trade without us adding (probably a lot) where we get a better player back.….then you have to think to what benefit…..is one guy minus all the addons to Wilson going to move the needle much? guessing no…..

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I’m not the one who decided GAR models were useful. Their creators did. They showed how reliable these models are predicting future performance and what the flaws are with these models. I’m much more willing to accept the results from models that are rigorously tested and are transparent when they miss.

Regarding Wilson: I’ve never suggested he’s bad and that’s the reason they should trade him. I’m suggesting he’s good but that his perceived value around the league could return a younger player who has either proven to be more impactful according to objective models, or has a much higher ceiling according to prior impacts. I’m also suggesting that he’s likely to enter a decline (if he hasn’t already) as most players do as they enter their 30s. I’m also suggesting that I’d much rather the Capitals not be the ones on the hook for an 8 x $7.25 million contract (this is my official estimate if he re-signs, take it to the bank!) for a declining player.

I can’t emphasize this enough: I don’t care what fans think of players and their impacts. I have no reason to believe that the Capitals fanbase here or elsewhere is any more able produce a fair evaluation of Tom Wilson than Chicago fans were in producing a fair evaluation of Dylan Strome. I think fans are naturally going to have a blind spot when it comes to Wilson because of all of the entertaining shenanigans he does.

If the argument is that other teams don’t gameplan for Nylander then how is that anything but another point in favor of targeting him? He’s shown clear high-end offensive impacts throughout his career. If that somehow flies under the radar to opposing teams then great, he should be even more productive!

For a guy who loves numbers, you throw around this highly subjective “perceived value around the league“ thing an awful lot.

You did it for Carlson, now Wilson. Where are all these GM’s lining up to overpay?

 

[g00n]

I can't wait for Twabby season to be over

 

[twabby]

For a guy who loves numbers, you throw around this highly subjective “perceived value around the league“ thing an awful lot.

You did it for Carlson, now Wilson. Where are all these GM’s lining up to overpay?

Yes, I am of course speculating on his interest among other teams around the league. I think the speculation is supported by some evidence though. I think Matthew Tkachuk’s emergence as a true superstar in Florida this year would drive up Wilson’s price because superficially they are similar players. Contracts handed out to guys like Ryan Reaves and Miles Wood also hint to me a high level of interest in players like Wilson. And ultimately most of the higher ups in hockey now played in a more physical era and probably see more value in what Wilson brings despite the numbers suggesting he’s not extraordinary.

Again do you think Toronto would say no to a Nylander for Wilson swap straight up? I don’t. That’s the type of move MacLellan likely isn’t open to given his comments to the media about Wilson’s availability despite it being an overpay in my estimation. And that probably explains why there aren’t any credible trade rumors swirling about, on top of the Capitals typically being tight-lipped about such things.

 

[Calicaps]

I’m not the one who decided GAR models were useful. Their creators did. They showed how reliable these models are predicting future performance and what the flaws are with these models. I’m much more willing to accept the results from models that are rigorously tested and are transparent when they miss.

Regarding Wilson: I’ve never suggested he’s bad and that’s the reason they should trade him. I’m suggesting he’s good but that his perceived value around the league could return a younger player who has either proven to be more impactful according to objective models, or has a much higher ceiling according to prior impacts. I’m also suggesting that he’s likely to enter a decline (if he hasn’t already) as most players do as they enter their 30s. I’m also suggesting that I’d much rather the Capitals not be the ones on the hook for an 8 x $7.25 million contract (this is my official estimate if he re-signs, take it to the bank!) for a declining player.

I can’t emphasize this enough: I don’t care what fans think of players and their impacts. I have no reason to believe that the Capitals fanbase here or elsewhere is any more able produce a fair evaluation of Tom Wilson than Chicago fans were in producing a fair evaluation of Dylan Strome. I think fans are naturally going to have a blind spot when it comes to Wilson because of all of the entertaining shenanigans he does.

If the argument is that other teams don’t gameplan for Nylander then how is that anything but another point in favor of targeting him? He’s shown clear high-end offensive impacts throughout his career. If that somehow flies under the radar to opposing teams then great, he should be even more productive!

interesting.

1. never once did I mention GAR.
2. you make my point for me: Wilson's contributions are merely "entertaining shenanigans" but not "Impact"
3. of course teams gameplan for Nylander, but largely as they would for any high quality offensive winger, vs as they would for an x factor type of player

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yes, I am of course speculating on his interest among other teams around the league. I think the speculation is supported by some evidence though. I think Matthew Tkachuk’s emergence as a true superstar in Florida this year would drive up Wilson’s price because superficially they are similar players. Contracts handed out to guys like Ryan Reaves and Miles Wood also hint to me a high level of interest in players like Wilson. And ultimately most of the higher ups in hockey now played in a more physical era and probably see more value in what Wilson brings despite the numbers suggesting he’s not extraordinary.

Again do you think Toronto would say no to a Nylander for Wilson swap straight up? I don’t. That’s the type of move MacLellan likely isn’t open to given his comments to the media about Wilson’s availability despite it being an overpay in my estimation. And that probably explains why there aren’t any credible trade rumors swirling about, on top of the Capitals typically being tight-lipped about such things.

Yes…..

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

So for Wilson, what is the package we would take I would probably want 2 first rounders from a top team and if it’s a up and comer like Buffalo, I would take one.

If Buffalo offers 2 1st rounders I run and say yes

But I think it’s more likely we see Willy get an extension

 

[HTFN]

Yes, I am of course speculating on his interest among other teams around the league. I think the speculation is supported by some evidence though. I think Matthew Tkachuk’s emergence as a true superstar in Florida this year would drive up Wilson’s price because superficially they are similar players. Contracts handed out to guys like Ryan Reaves and Miles Wood also hint to me a high level of interest in players like Wilson. And ultimately most of the higher ups in hockey now played in a more physical era and probably see more value in what Wilson brings despite the numbers suggesting he’s not extraordinary.

Again do you think Toronto would say no to a Nylander for Wilson swap straight up? I don’t. That’s the type of move MacLellan likely isn’t open to given his comments to the media about Wilson’s availability despite it being an overpay in my estimation. And that probably explains why there aren’t any credible trade rumors swirling about, on top of the Capitals typically being tight-lipped about such things.

100% yes they'd reject that as a 1 for 1.

That's one area where your perspective is warped, the other is assuming Nylander's acquisition would translate because of his rate stats instead of accounting for the fact that he's maybe the 3rd, 4th most dangerous Maple Leaf and easily one of the most dangerous Capitals. If a team can budget defense towards somebody they will.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

So for Wilson, what is the package we would take I would probably want 2 first rounders from a top team and if it’s a up and comer like Buffalo, I would take one.

If Buffalo offers 2 1st rounders I run and say yes

But I think it’s more likely we see Willy get an extension

No…..if forced to, for young, close to ready/ready prospects….at least one. Futures do nothing for now…

 

[Marshall]

I can't wait for Twabby season to be over

It's "Wet, Hot twabby Summer".

 

[twabby]

100% yes they'd reject that as a 1 for 1.

That's one area where your perspective is warped, the other is assuming Nylander's acquisition would translate because of his rate stats instead of accounting for the fact that he's maybe the 3rd, 4th most dangerous Maple Leaf and easily one of the most dangerous Capitals. If a team can budget defense towards somebody they will.

I’m not sure I agree. Just as a sort of sanity check, I looked at the thread @AlexBrovechkin8 started about a Wilson for Nylander swap in the trade forum:

Proposal: - Tom Wilson to Toronto

I’ll preface this by saying I don’t want Wilson moved and hope he retires a Capital. I watch hockey to be entertained and Wilson is one of the most entertaining players to watch, at least in my opinion. That said, it’s summer and not much is going on, and he’s entering the final year of his...

forums.hfboards.com

The responses in general were rather warm? Maybe a small add on Washington’s end, but the value was generally about right. Given HF’s tendency to say “no this deal stinks lock the thread!” the fact that that proposed deal had a somewhat ok response leads me to believe I’m at least in the ballpark with a straight Wilson for Nylander swap. Extensions would likely have to be in place for it to work I suppose, but the framework seems fair enough.

To outright say that deal is 100% rejected is a bit suspect. I don’t trust HF posters to fairly gauge a trade offer, but I do trust league trends and I do trust GMs weighing intangibles very heavily. I stand by my assertion that a Wilson for Nylander trade would be accepted by Toronto at least. Probably not Washington of course, which is a shame.

It also brings me to the point I mentioned earlier: if Nylander is Toronto’s third or fourth most important player and whose stats are largely a product of the team he plays on yet they still wouldn’t trade him straight up for Wilson, what does that say about Wilson’s actual value? Why is he then worth re-signing for what is likely to be a bloated contract that will look regrettable sooner rather than later?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Wait, so if Wilson isn’t overvalued by at least this one Team he’s not worth resigning? Lol…

 

[WanderingCapsFan]

So, August is tomorrow. And that's close to September. And September is right before October, when hockey begins.

So..........we're really close to hockey!!

 

[HTFN]

I’m not sure I agree. Just as a sort of sanity check, I looked at the thread @AlexBrovechkin8 started about a Wilson for Nylander swap in the trade forum:

Proposal: - Tom Wilson to Toronto

I’ll preface this by saying I don’t want Wilson moved and hope he retires a Capital. I watch hockey to be entertained and Wilson is one of the most entertaining players to watch, at least in my opinion. That said, it’s summer and not much is going on, and he’s entering the final year of his...

forums.hfboards.com

The responses in general were rather warm? Maybe a small add on Washington’s end, but the value was generally about right. Given HF’s tendency to say “no this deal stinks lock the thread!” the fact that that proposed deal had a somewhat ok response leads me to believe I’m at least in the ballpark with a straight Wilson for Nylander swap. Extensions would likely have to be in place for it to work I suppose, but the framework seems fair enough.

To outright say that deal is 100% rejected is a bit suspect. I don’t trust HF posters to fairly gauge a trade offer, but I do trust league trends and I do trust GMs weighing intangibles very heavily. I stand by my assertion that a Wilson for Nylander trade would be accepted by Toronto at least. Probably not Washington of course, which is a shame.

It also brings me to the point I mentioned earlier: if Nylander is Toronto’s third or fourth most important player and whose stats are largely a product of the team he plays on yet they still wouldn’t trade him straight up for Wilson, what does that say about Wilson’s actual value? Why is he then worth re-signing for what is likely to be a bloated contract that will look regrettable sooner rather than later?

Because teams are individuals with particular needs and structures. Nylander being a superfluous piece in Toronto doesn't make him primed to ascend to superstardom. Wilson being a piece they desperately need doesn't make the Capitals not need him.

Wilson's actual value is that he's doing it right now, no ifs or projections, against top lines and pairings as a result of his deployment with a lot of PK time. Nylander is... not.

 

[DWGie26]

Because teams are individuals with particular needs and structures. Nylander being a superfluous piece in Toronto doesn't make him primed to ascend to superstardom. Wilson being a piece they desperately need doesn't make the Capitals not need him.

Wilson's actual value is that he's doing it right now, no ifs or projections, against top lines and pairings as a result of his deployment with a lot of PK time. Nylander is... not.

Agree with his value is right now. One of the big things Wilson does is open the ice for OV. He scores (secondary on OV line), he chases the puck into the corners (and wins), he is hard to handle in front of the net, he is a top notch penalty killer, effective in bumper spot on the PP, and he is a leader of men. That is before you get to bone crunching hits and fighting (which he does a lot less of). The Ryan Reeves are a dime a dozen. The Wilson are far and few between.

Back to the he does it now. Caps are interested in two things over the next three years. Being competitive with an eye at another cup (not likely this year) and fielding a team that helps elevate OV to 895. Wilson is a critical piece to both of those things now. And yes, I purposely put hits and fights as the last things. We’ll see less of that as Wilson ages because of all of the other high end attributes.

Would @twabby feel differently if we could sign him to a 4 year deal? I would like that but it is going to cost >$8M per year. Wilson of course would prefer a long term 8 year deal. I don’t have an issue with this because I think he will age better than many think as he matures his game and we’ll need his leadership skills as we transition to youth.

 

[trick9]

Lost in all of this is the fact that while you can make an argument that Wilson's next contract is going to be a poor one, it's that the very same thing is likely for Nylander. His initial ask from a non-contender would certainly be over 10m AAV. There are 4 wingers in the NHL with a cap hit above 10m. Those are Pastrnak, Marner, Huberdeau and Panarin. 3 of those players are on a different tier than Nylander and Huberdeau is universally seen as a brutal mistake signing already. That's not a boat i want to sink on. Nylander would also be 28 before his new contract even kicks in so you'd be paying until 36 to a guy who relies a lot on his speed to produce.

I'm not saying Nylander is crap. Just saying that if we were to trade Wilson then it's rebuild time because our entire leadership core is done quickly after that. Ovechkin remains but Oshie and Backstrom are on their last legs already and Nylander is the opposite of a leader. If we were to trade Wilson then there is no point targeting guy who is about to get overpaid as an UFA but rather young cost-controlled player that will be of some use to us when we eventually are good again.

I'd be fine with keeping Wilson.

 

[usiel]

So, August is tomorrow. And that's close to September. And September is right before October, when hockey begins.

So..........we're really close to hockey!!

Roughly 46 days till rookie camp...50 for main.

 

[g00n]

You can't argue the value of a chassis with people who only measure components by horsepower. But try and race without one.

 

[The Instigator]

Doesn't boston need a new C now with bergeron gone?

The whiplash of going from Patrice Bergeron to Evgeny Kuznetsov would likely hospitalize half of Boston.