Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season

[Langway]

I’m going to root for Michkov. And Leonard. And everyone else. I hope they all have a good time and that they all win.

 

[Hivemind]

re: Michkov
the strange thing was him saying he really wanted the Flyers (not going to look up the quote but similar to that)

Does PHI have some great rep in Russia or something that we don't know about? Seems bizarre to tout PHI who seem destined for more suckage in the foreseeable future; is he a Torts fan? does he crave the Wiz Wit? inquiring minds...

Oldheads will remember the 1976 Flyers-Red Army game, in which the CSKA team refused to take the ice against the Broad Street Bullies after Kharlamov was injured. So the franchise has a profile in Russia. Plus, they're generally one of the more recognized NHL franchises internationally, with 50+ years of history and name recognition, playing in a large East Coast city, and with a pretty notable brand (the "Broad Street Bullies" plus Gritty). The Capitals are still the most searched NHL team in the Russian-language-speaking portion of the world, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Flyers were in the top 6 or 7 teams known over there.

 

[um]

I don’t see any misunderstanding here….


“Yes, there was no desire to be in Arizona,” he continued. “There wasn’t at all. [Some kind of insider said], that it was deliberately started, that Matvei Michkov [wanted to go to] Washington. Matvei Michkov did not want to get into Washington. This desire was mutual.”

That Scout mouthing off probably didn’t help.

 

[um]

I’m going to root for Michkov. And Leonard. And everyone else. I hope they all have a good time and that they all win.

Twabby is our Marge Simpson

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Boyd?

If Patches is healthy and productive he is probably the most coveted UFA winger at the deadline. If he’s back to some semblance of his normal self his contract is extremely valuable. The only thing that would limit his return is he controls where he goes but hopefully he’d work with the front office on that if push comes to shove.

I think Dowd is a replacement level player and can be replaced with a Hershey player. Might as well cash in on him and get a pick.

 

[Rayquaza64]

I think Boyd is a replacement level player and can be replaced with a Hershey player. Might as well cash in on him and get a pick.

who is boyd?

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

who is boyd?

Dowd***

no idea how I got his name that wrong lol

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Meh. Leonard seems to have much more character than Michkov.

 

[HTFN]

I think Dowd is a replacement level player and can be replaced with a Hershey player. Might as well cash in on him and get a pick.

That's wrong. That's, like, very wrong.

Dowd might currently be the best bottom 6/4th line C in the league, practically no contest.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

That's wrong. That's, like, very wrong.

Dowd might currently be the best bottom 6/4th line C in the league, practically no contest.

And a $1.3 cap hit 2 years. He should be a player contenders want and easily traded Im not sure we have much use for Dowd in 2024 and 2025

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

That Scout mouthing off probably didn’t help.

Maybe he really is an asshole?

 

[HTFN]

And a $1.3 cap hit 2 years. He should be a player contenders want and easily traded Im not sure we have much use for Dowd in 2024 and 2025

There's a ton of use for him unless the team's top 6 becomes anything other than a liability at even strength. The things that are keeping the Capitals "okay" are the fact that their 4th line/bottom 6 and D aren't as bad as the sum of the team's parts.

If they want to retool for anything resembling competitive they can't strip that foundation for parts, they just need to fix what's actually broken and that's not the bottom 6 right now. If anything, Dowd is carrying a tremendous defensive load because none of the top 6 centers can be counted on to do anything but get completely cratered out there (except Strome, I guess, who I forget about sometimes but isn't a stalwart either).

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I think Dowd is a replacement level player and can be replaced with a Hershey player. Might as well cash in on him and get a pick.

Dowd, not Boyd, is one of the best 4Cs in the league. He’s one of the better defensive centers in the league. He’s probably worth more to the team by way of an extension than he is in a trade.

 

[HTFN]

Dowd, not Boyd, is one of the best 4Cs in the league. He’s one of the better defensive centers in the league. He’s probably worth more to the team by way of an extension than he is in a trade.

It's honestly insane. He was like 5th on a list of defensive centers by fancystats in a recent tweet I was trying to find, and one of the only bottom 6 guys to make it. He's in a specialized role and doing exceptionally, and I've been a fan of his general tools ever since he showed up. The eye test and stat tests line up fully to me, he's got talent above his role but plays the role perfectly (and isn't so talented he's being wasted, it's more like just being an elite version of the role)

 

[Brian23]

I think Dowd is a replacement level player and can be replaced with a Hershey player. Might as well cash in on him and get a pick.

You can think that but you are unequivocally wrong. He's an insane value as a 4C, arguably the best in the game and has well preformed past his contract.

 

[Todos a la Calle]

Nic Dowd is an example of us having some good pro scouting. TBH he tends to surprise me with how much he scores for a 4C.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I had no idea Dowd was such a fan favorite.

 

[HTFN]

I had no idea Dowd was such a fan favorite.

fan favorite is a gentle escape for you, but it's not even that.

What got cut out of the screenshot: these are the best bottom 6 centers, in an article more centered around top 6/minute munching all-around centers, but threw a bone to those guys who just see limited minutes.

In the limited minutes crowd, not only is Dowd the best but he's one of the only guys who plays a complete game and isn't selling out just to play D, or physically incapable of anything else. He's a good player, they should keep him.

Who are the NHL’s best shutdown centers and why are they so valuable?

In an era where it's never been harder to defend, high-end shutdown players are uniquely valuable. Who are the NHL's best defensive centers?

theathletic.com

 

[HTFN]

I was hunting for a tweet I saw just a few weeks ago listing the best defensive forwards in the NHL with no limiting parameter, though I don't know what metric they were using, and Dowd was one of the only bottom 6 players on a list of traditional Selke candidates and came in like 5th or 6th.

Dude plays defense, and does it exceptionally well. Caps fans should honestly count themselves phenomenally lucky to see the team transition from the Gordon-Bradley line to Beagle running things to Dowd stepping in and also killing it. They've had a lights out fourth line for the last decade+

 

[Kalopsia]

Fun fact I discovered while taking a closer look at Dowd’s numbers: since we started getting offensive zone start percentage data in the 09-10 season, there have only been 59 individual seasons where a player got fewer than 20% OZ starts (min 40 GP), and amongst those there have only been three instances where a player scored more than 20 points in the process. All three are current or former Caps, and two of them were on last season’s team.

Boyd Gordon in 13-14: 8-13-21 with a -15 in 74 GP on 17.9% OZ starts

Nic Dowd in 22-23: 13-12-25 with a +6 in 65 GP on 16.4% OZ starts

Garnet Hathaway in 22-23: 13-9-24 with a +5 in 84 GP on 17.8% OZ starts

I think Caps fans have been kind of spoiled for 4C’s going from Gordon (his best years with the Caps were pre-OZ start data) to Beagle (just missed the cutoff with 22 points on 26.5% OZ starts in the Cup year) to Dowd. Guys aren’t supposed to be able to take massive defensive responsibilities and still routinely chip in 20+ points. I know this board appreciates Dowd, but after looking into the context we should probably be making a bigger deal of the season he just had. The fact that he didn’t get any Selke votes is a travesty.

Edit: hit post and immediately saw HFTN’s comment pop up where he’d essentially already written my last paragraph, ha!

 

[um]

Maybe he really is an asshole?

Maybe, we shall see.

 

[Hivemind]

I like Dowd. I think he's an excellent fit for his role, and he's certainly out produced his contract.

But I also would be in favor of trading Dowd rather than extending him. Doesn't have to happen this year, but it certainly can be considered if someone is willing to make an appropriate offer.

It doesn't seem like it since he only got to Washington after the Cup, but Dowd is already 33 years old. And he just had his best two years of his career. This is very likely to be the high water mark for Dowder, and it doesn't make sense to pay for a level of play he's very unlikely to maintain at ages 35+ on his next contract. Cash out on the best years of Dowd's career, don't pay for the decline.

Not to mention, this team isn't going to hinge upon its 4C anyway. The difference between Nic Dowd and a replacement-level 4C isn't going to change this team's fate. Just like with Hatheway, 4th liners come and 4th liners go. They're often fan favorites, but there's a long line of fan favorites before and after each of them. Before Dowd we had that Jay Beagle guy. And before him we had Michael Latta, Matt Hendricks, Jeff Halpern (2nd stint), Dave Steckel, and Boyd Gordon. Michael Latta is the only real questionable one of that bunch, and even he wasn't that bad. Next worst would be a former team captain on the tail end of his career. Beagle and Gordon were both excellent role players, on par with or better than Dowd in various respects. Hendricks and Steckel weren't as well rounded, but both had a place that made sense on the team (Hendricks as energy, faceoffs, and shootouts - Steckel was faceoffs, penalty killing, and slowly lumbering in Crosby in the Winter Classic). It's easy to find new 4th liners out there, we've churned thru plenty both internally and externally over the years. They're largely replaceable parts (even when they over-achieve). And we also have a glut of Center prospects at the moment, all contending for roster spots. It certainly wouldn't be the end of the world to see Protas develop as a 4C.

(Or, you know, twilight Backstrom as 4C and PP1...)

We let Beagle walk at the right time, and immediately filled his shoes with Dowd. It's fine to let Dowd go and fill his shoes with the next guy up.

 

[HTFN]

I like Dowd. I think he's an excellent fit for his role, and he's certainly out produced his contract.

But I also would be in favor of trading Dowd rather than extending him. Doesn't have to happen this year, but it certainly can be considered if someone is willing to make an appropriate offer.

It doesn't seem like it since he only got to Washington after the Cup, but Dowd is already 33 years old. And he just had his best two years of his career. This is very likely to be the high water mark for Dowder, and it doesn't make sense to pay for a level of play he's very unlikely to maintain at ages 35+ on his next contract. Cash out on the best years of Dowd's career, don't pay for the decline.

Not to mention, this team isn't going to hinge upon its 4C anyway. The difference between Nic Dowd and a replacement-level 4C isn't going to change this team's fate. Just like with Hatheway, 4th liners come and 4th liners go. They're often fan favorites, but there's a long line of fan favorites before and after each of them. Before Dowd we had that Jay Beagle guy. And before him we had Michael Latta, Matt Hendricks, Jeff Halpern (2nd stint), Dave Steckel, and Boyd Gordon. Michael Latta is the only real questionable one of that bunch, and even he wasn't that bad. Next worst would be a former team captain on the tail end of his career. Beagle and Gordon were both excellent role players, on par with or better than Dowd in various respects. Hendricks and Steckel weren't as well rounded, but both had a place that made sense on the team (Hendricks as energy, faceoffs, and shootouts - Steckel was faceoffs, penalty killing, and slowly lumbering in Crosby in the Winter Classic). It's easy to find new 4th liners out there, we've churned thru plenty both internally and externally over the years. They're largely replaceable parts (even when they over-achieve). And we also have a glut of Center prospects at the moment, all contending for roster spots. It certainly wouldn't be the end of the world to see Protas develop as a 4C.

(Or, you know, twilight Backstrom as 4C and PP1...)

We let Beagle walk at the right time, and immediately filled his shoes with Dowd. It's fine to let Dowd go and fill his shoes with the next guy up.

I think the above posts indicate why Gordon and Beagle shouldn't be listed as "just quality guys", the Capitals have made a lot out of their 4th line in the Ovechkin era (potentially because his lines can't carry any of that load). When the Caps' internal options ran low they went out and acquired Dowd, I don't think that's a coincidence.

There is no next guy up unless they have another pro scouting acquisition in the wings right now. I'm not saying extend Dowd but it's not anywhere near as easy as you say to just keep rolling the 4th line with new contributors. Pro scouting worked hard to keep that line strong.

 

[Hivemind]

I think the above posts indicate why Gordon and Beagle shouldn't be listed as "just quality guys", the Capitals have made a lot out of their 4th line in the Ovechkin era (potentially because his lines can't carry any of that load). When the Caps' internal options ran low they went out and acquired Dowd, I don't think that's a coincidence.

There is no next guy up unless they have another pro scouting acquisition in the wings right now. I'm not saying extend Dowd but it's not anywhere near as easy as you say to just keep rolling the 4th line with new contributors. Pro scouting worked hard to keep that line strong.

I think there's both internal options (Protas) and external options.

You mention the Caps internal options running low, but they had a natural center who had just helped them win the Cup playing on the wing in their bottom six when they brought in Dowd. I'm not saying it was a mistake to bring in Dowd (I don't think it was), but there's certainly a hypothetical "what if" to consider if they had just let Chandler Stephenson develop as the team's 4C rather than locking him out. We could absolutely do the same with Protas now.

As for external options, stuff can still change before free agency next year, but a name I'd throw out there as 2024 UFA is Teddy Blueger. Dude has faced similarly steep defensive loads for several seasons, done well in them, and is a quality PKer on top of that. Plus he just won a Cup with Vegas.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

For internal options I just have a gut feeling Sutter is ready and we don’t want to block him like a lot of other young players.

We could have CMM Protas Lappy and Sutter NHL ready.

Sutter is 23 years old 6’4 plays the same role as Dowd. Has training from a hockey legacy family just won a minor league championship and plays a position of need.