Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season

[usiel]

Dowd debates in early July hurry up WFT training camp.

 

[HTFN]

I think there's both internal options (Protas) and external options.

You mention the Caps internal options running low, but they had a natural center who had just helped them win the Cup playing on the wing in their bottom six when they brought in Dowd. I'm not saying it was a mistake to bring in Dowd (I don't think it was), but there's certainly a hypothetical "what if" to consider if they had just let Chandler Stephenson develop as the team's 4C rather than locking him out. We could absolutely do the same with Protas now.

As for external options, stuff can still change before free agency next year, but a name I'd throw out there as 2024 UFA is Teddy Blueger. Dude has faced similarly steep defensive loads for several seasons, done well in them, and is a quality PKer on top of that. Plus he just won a Cup with Vegas.

That "what if" is that they get way less defensive impact and arguably squeeze their top 9 for playing time to suit Stephenson, or else he moves on anyway because opportunity was a key part of why he left to begin with, and don't suit their cap structure by keeping him at all.

 

[Hivemind]

That "what if" is that they get way less defensive impact and arguably squeeze their top 9 for playing time to suit Stephenson, or else he moves on anyway because opportunity was a key part of why he left to begin with, and don't suit their cap structure by keeping him at all.

Not sure what you mean by "opportunity was a key part of why he left to begin with" - the Capitals traded him for a 5th round pick. He didn't chose to leave, the Capitals blocked him at 4C with Dowd, acquired Hagelin to take his 3/4LW spot, and then traded him.

I'd much rather have him squeezing the top 9 for playing time than giving him away for nothing. He could accelerate the Eller replacement process at the very least, if not the Kuznetsov replacement process if he breaks out in the same way he did in Vegas.

Also, Stephenson is a good defensive player.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Some posters never err on how “they would’ve run” the team. We’d have 6 Cups by now if only the Caps had followed their logic all along

 

[twabby]

I think it’s neat that we’re accepting RAPM stats as it pertains to Nic Dowd. RAPM is the basis for xGAR on Evolving Hockey and controls for context such as teammates, opponents, zone-starts, and score-state among other things.

I look forward to having productive discussions that include RAPM, GAR, and other context-controlled statistics as it pertains to other players as well!

 

[Marshall]

Sigh. The same arguments over and over, just switch the player every couple of weeks.

 

[HTFN]

I think it’s neat that we’re accepting RAPM stats as it pertains to Nic Dowd. RAPM is the basis for xGAR on Evolving Hockey and controls for context such as teammates, opponents, zone-starts, and score-state among other things.

I look forward to having productive discussions that include RAPM, GAR, and other context-controlled statistics as it pertains to other players as well!

They’re only backed by Dowd being an obvious boon every time we watch him, which I realize is a foreign concept.

If you could see the graphs as they’re being made, it’s like that but more exciting (I know, right? More exciting?!)

 

[zappa4ever]

xSigh... RAPM
xLOL, so many xFancy xStats

I wonder how this one is reverse engineered to produce what they want

Anyone have the list of the 75 factors and how they're weighted to produce this one?

I was going to make a +/- joke then I looked this up and...
it's a +/- stat!?!

Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus

 

[twabby]

Anyone have the list of the 75 factors and how they're weighted to produce this one?

Grit
Heart
Tenacity
Experience
Character
Leadership
Pugnacity
Jam
Sandpaper
Glue
Sacrifice

There are about 15 other factors that go into the RAPM stat but I can’t recall them all offhand.

They’re weighted however you want to! That’s the beauty of the stat. You can say anyone is good or bad!

 

[Lou Sassole]

I was hunting for a tweet I saw just a few weeks ago listing the best defensive forwards in the NHL with no limiting parameter, though I don't know what metric they were using, and Dowd was one of the only bottom 6 players on a list of traditional Selke candidates and came in like 5th or 6th.

Dude plays defense, and does it exceptionally well. Caps fans should honestly count themselves phenomenally lucky to see the team transition from the Gordon-Bradley line to Beagle running things to Dowd stepping in and also killing it. They've had a lights out fourth line for the last decade+

Down has an underrated shot too.

 

[pman25]

If McMichael really does claim a top 9 spot and we still have Strome, Kuznetsov, Backstrom, and Dowd all down the middle, might we see Kuznetsov or Backstrom move to wing to accomodate McMichael at center? I also wonder about Oshie moving down to 4RW if the top 9 is this crowded. I hope they try some things instead of just locking in the usual suspects

Try Phillips out somewhere in the top 9 too if Pacioretty is out a while, or Oshie gets hurt, or Mantha plays himself to a healthy scratch again.

Ovechkin-Strome-Kuznetsov
Pacioretty-Backstrom-Wilson
Milano-McMichael-Mantha
Protas-Dowd-Oshie
Extras - NAK, Phillips, Malenstyn?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If McMichael really does claim a top 9 spot and we still have Strome, Kuznetsov, Backstrom, and Dowd all down the middle, might we see Kuznetsov or Backstrom move to wing to accomodate McMichael at center? I also wonder about Oshie moving down to 4RW if the top 9 is this crowded. I hope they try some things instead of just locking in the usual suspects

Try Phillips out somewhere in the top 9 too if Pacioretty is out a while, or Oshie gets hurt, or Mantha plays himself to a healthy scratch again.

Ovechkin-Strome-Kuznetsov
Pacioretty-Backstrom-Wilson
Milano-McMichael-Mantha
Protas-Dowd-Oshie
Extras - NAK, Phillips, Malenstyn?

Why bump down our second/third best goal scorer in Oshie to make way for lesser talent (at least right now)? May the best men win the competition in camp….

I think this “logjam” will be resolved via trade(s).

 

[pman25]

Why bump down our second/third best goal scorer in Oshie to make way for lesser talent (at least right now)? May the best men win the competition in camp….

I think this “logjam” will be resolved via trade(s).

Because he would be paired with our 1C, Nic Dowd!

But really, I’d just hope if the log jam remains, they think about moving a vet down or to the wing. With Oshie I assume he’s out 30% of the season anyway. Might benefit from some less ice time lower in the line up with some PP time

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Because he would be paired with our 1C, Nic Dowd!

But really, I’d just hope if the log jam remains, they think about moving a vet down or to the wing. With Oshie I assume he’s out 30% of the season anyway. Might benefit from some less ice time lower in the line up with some PP time

I hope they make the decision to field the best team, the best players in the spots they earn in camp. Hopefully a trade or two will relieve some overpopulation.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Ovechkin-Strome-Kuznetsov
Pacioretty-Backstrom-Wilson
Milano-McMichael-Mantha
Protas-Dowd-Oshie
Extras - NAK, Phillips, Malenstyn?

I love Backstrom, but the question is can realistically outperform any of these 12 below - if so, put him in. I get, from GMBM's exasperation, he might not think so. Same with Mantha. So, in December, if Patches is ready.

Ovechkin - Strome - Kuznetsov/Wilson
Pacioretty - McMichael - Kuznetsov/Wilson
Milano - Protas - Oshie
Malenstyn - Dowd - Phillips

Extras - NAK, Backstrom, Mantha?

CMM and Protas both need to be at C to get a real evaluation. I will also add that those 12 may surprise significantly to the upside.

 

[Caps8112]

not naming names (im sure could figure out if you wanted) but saw on the main board a caps fan talking about following a different team since the caps are in a tailspin/limbo for the next few years. Been watching since the 80s so this doesnt make sense to me. All the ups and downs pretty much until the Ovi era and then the ups and downs with figuring out how to build a championship level team and now people jump ship. guess being a fan has changed a lot. 2018 was special because of all the years of watching. Not sure what people want management to do. Ovi has a few more years left. were they suppose to let him walk and start over a few years ago?

 

[Ridley Simon]

not naming names (im sure could figure out if you wanted) but saw on the main board a caps fan talking about following a different team since the caps are in a tailspin/limbo for the next few years. Been watching since the 80s so this doesnt make sense to me. All the ups and downs pretty much until the Ovi era and then the ups and downs with figuring out how to build a championship level team and now people jump ship. guess being a fan has changed a lot. 2018 was special because of all the years of watching. Not sure what people want management to do. Ovi has a few more years left. were they suppose to let him walk and start over a few years ago?

I don’t have the emotional capacity to care for another team. It’s not part of my makeup. So I’m happy to announce you ain’t talking about me. I’d wager anyone that “likes” this comment, also fits into that category!

 

[OV Rocks]

not naming names (im sure could figure out if you wanted) but saw on the main board a caps fan talking about following a different team since the caps are in a tailspin/limbo for the next few years. Been watching since the 80s so this doesnt make sense to me. All the ups and downs pretty much until the Ovi era and then the ups and downs with figuring out how to build a championship level team and now people jump ship. guess being a fan has changed a lot. 2018 was special because of all the years of watching. Not sure what people want management to do. Ovi has a few more years left. were they suppose to let him walk and start over a few years ago?

Don't let the door hit you on the way out whoever that person is.

The greatest player in franchise history is 2 years out from breaking a record that was once thought of as untouchable. Enjoy the ride, hope for the best, and a playoff run in the meantime is a bonus.

Again, for what it is worth I think the Caps are going to surprise the NHL next year and sneak into the 3rd Metro spot.

 

[Kolzilla]

not naming names (im sure could figure out if you wanted) but saw on the main board a caps fan talking about following a different team since the caps are in a tailspin/limbo for the next few years. Been watching since the 80s so this doesnt make sense to me. All the ups and downs pretty much until the Ovi era and then the ups and downs with figuring out how to build a championship level team and now people jump ship. guess being a fan has changed a lot. 2018 was special because of all the years of watching. Not sure what people want management to do. Ovi has a few more years left. were they suppose to let him walk and start over a few years ago?

Saw that and thought the same thing as you.

 

[um]

not naming names (im sure could figure out if you wanted) but saw on the main board a caps fan talking about following a different team since the caps are in a tailspin/limbo for the next few years. Been watching since the 80s so this doesnt make sense to me. All the ups and downs pretty much until the Ovi era and then the ups and downs with figuring out how to build a championship level team and now people jump ship. guess being a fan has changed a lot. 2018 was special because of all the years of watching. Not sure what people want management to do. Ovi has a few more years left. were they suppose to let him walk and start over a few years ago?

Bandwagon fans are nothing new, and superstars like Ovie attract them.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Bandwagon fans are nothing new, and superstars like Ovie attract them.

This…..I can’t imagine anyone here suffering as we did before this golden era for Caps fans, that would leave at the idea of a struggle.

It’s not like this should be a surprise to anyone following the team closely….this is years in the making….and was easy to predict.

 

[itsjustsurvival]

Saw that and thought the same thing as you.

They may be on to something. I'm going to buy a jersey and a hat for every team in the league and then support whatever team is currently in first place.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

They may be on to something. I'm going to buy a jersey and a hat for every team in the league and then support whatever team is currently in first place.

One guy in my friend group years ago……NJ transplant to NC, plus he went to tons of Caps games with us, so he would root for them when not playing the others….so he was a Devils/Canes/Caps fan, and his west team was SJ.

I still can’t fathom that type of fandom….

 

[HandsomeTom43]

Once the team wins a championship, why jump ship? Makes no sense. That’s what it’s all about, especially if you’re a long suffering fan. I think we have at minimum a top 10 GM and we will field the best roster possible. Ted has his shortcomings as an owner but I’m also fond of him overall.

I’m not a Commanders fan, but my best friend is, and I know most of of the members of this board are fans. If you fine people can suffer through Dan Snyder and the Nats poverty mentality, and the Wizards being a bottom 5 franchise for 30 years , you can get through anything.

As an aside the Wiz are my favorite team, and I root for the Nats to be successful because of this board so I’m with you in spirit and misery.

 

[Caps8112]

I don’t have the emotional capacity to care for another team. It’s not part of my makeup. So I’m happy to announce you ain’t talking about me. I’d wager anyone that “likes” this comment, also fits into that category!

once the caps are eliminated I usually root for whoever has not won the cup in the playoffs. I have some friends whose family are nashville fans so Ive been to a game out there and root for them a little bit but when the caps play them I expect the caps to beat them 9000-2.