Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season

[Calicaps]

Agreed. I’m not questioning BMac. I’m questioning how people here are so quick to accept them doing nothing. I have faith in BMac.

I don't see anyone accepting that. I see people either despairing that all hope is lost or having patience and accepting that they won't do something just for the sake of doing something.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I don't see anyone accepting that. I see people either despairing that all hope is lost or having patience and accepting that they won't do something just for the sake of doing something.

Agree to disagree I suppose.

I seem to remember that trades etc *can* still happen after training camp starts, yes?

I am not going to feel my anxiety go up daily, simply because it’s June 25th and nothing has happened yet.

And PS — it’s won’t be the same roster as last year. Regardless of any movements. 4-5 Hershey guys will be regulars, and that wasn’t horrible the last time it happened (Oct - Dec in ‘22)

Just my 2 cents

Unless someone from Hershey has learned how to score that likely won’t be enough. I hear what you are saying though. Here is to hoping they don’t make the big guy at 38 carry the entire weight of the offense.

 

[twabby]

It was really Backstrom, right? Not so much Wilson, though some of his analytics were also poor. Backstrom was a -25 in just 39 games. Maybe there was some unluckiness but no one in the league on a per game basis put up the minuses to that extent last season. It's just one stat but I thought there was a very noticeable sag in their play systematically once he returned. I don't think it was so much great things the Hershey players were doing as just how sluggish Backstrom was much of the time. They were a different team with a slackened pace in closing out plays. It may have also been them simply hitting a wall and not being able to sustain such a level over a longer period. Plenty of players gradually went MIA.

I think an internal belief re: 19 is also probably why MacLellan was so unsparingly blunt in his assessment of 19 and the potential for more of a full recovery. It is a massive elephant in the room that they can't do much about. It's why, as much as they could be active to change things up, it's hard to say how many assets they should dump in order to still probably have this huge problem gumming up the works. They can try to finesse it. They can try to make him more of a soft-minute PP specialist but it's potentially a massive structural impediment.

While I don’t think it’s as simple as it being Backstrom alone, his insertion in the lineup certainly made things much worse. His impacts this year were incredibly poor, especially offensively:

I don’t think it’s a surprise that him getting significant minutes in the second half of the season dragged the offense down.

From a 5v5 standpoint the team as a whole started turning down after Carlson went down.

(Carlson was injured in Game 36 above, right near their peak).

Gustafsson and Carlson had been a great pair in December but after Carlson went down Gustafsson never really regained his form. He wasn’t bad, but he wasn’t his December self. It was likely an aberration either way but still, the Carlson injury made Gustafsson worse.

I think another overlooked part of their hot streak in December was that Martin Fehervary was absent for most of it. I know I’ll be crucified for saying it, but the team faired extremely well with him out of the lineup this year and I don’t think it’s a coincidence. He and Carlson had a ~40% xGF% this year. Fehervary really was a drag on team offense himself, even if defensive his impacts improved:

I don’t think there’s a future for him in the top 4 on this team given his results to date and the fact that the team has been so much better with him not playing top 4 minutes. Even if his replacement wasn’t better (Irwin, Alexeyev, or whoever else) at least they were slotted correctly on the third pair.

If I had to bullet point the reasons why they stunk after December, it’d be:

1. Carlson’s injury, forcing a bit too much from guys like Orlov, Jensen, and Gustafsson
2. Backstrom’s return from injury, dragging down everyone around him
3. Fehervary’s return from injury
4. Bad shooting/goaltending in January

Maybe throw Wilson’s return in there way down the list. I don’t think his return was nearly the huge problem that some do, despite my pessimistic outlook on him going forward. His impacts were awful this year but he’s a winger and I don’t think his lack of impact drags down the team like, say, a top 6 center becoming a black hole.

Defensively they were fine for most of the season. But every major injury and every major return from injury had the effect of hurting the offense. Carlson’s injury, Backstrom’s injury, Fehervary’s continued use in the top 4 after his return, etc. When you combine these things with a top 9 that already has trouble generating offense to varying degrees it’s going to be hard to score goals.

I think not playing guys like McMichael and Protas was so frustrating to me not because I thought they were going to come in and get the team scoring 3+ goals a night and winning consistently. It mainly hurt because we knew options like Backstrom, Eller, and Kuznetsov were ineffective so why not at least get them some development time to maybe help or at least provide clarity for next year? Instead they enter next season as big question marks.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Curious as to why you aren’t throwing out “evidence” either?

The old “do as I say, not as I do” conversation.

I thought the club played w more urgency when Backstrom and Wilson were out. They seemed to work better w each other, and obv they were successful.

Then it all seemed to hit a wall.

I’m not one of those who keep throwing this point out.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I mean we already knew Backstrom sucked…

 

[HTFN]

I mean we already knew Backstrom sucked…

I knew you were going to make that mean this. What part of playing him and cratering the team is good coaching? Why are players objectively better than Backstrom was last year "not ready" but Backstrom is, somehow, and is owed time to figure it out?

It's bad enough you framed the argument in a way where they have to provably make the team better and not just keep it from being as bad as it ended up, but now we're going to do the "oh, it's because Backstrom was bad, not because those other players were any good" as if that changes the calculus for a coach who wants to win games.

And look, maybe we don't really want to win those games, would be a pretty boring result compared to technically making the draft lottery so I'm on board with the losing but I'm not on board with this nebulous, unevenly applied criteria for player performance. What's the difference between Backstrom being worse than the players he replaced vs. one of the kids edging him out at full power? Functionally nothing.

 

[trick9]

It was really Backstrom, right? Not so much Wilson, though some of his analytics were also poor. Backstrom was a -25 in just 39 games. Maybe there was some unluckiness but no one in the league on a per game basis put up the minuses to that extent last season. It's just one stat but I thought there was a very noticeable sag in their play systematically once he returned. I don't think it was so much great things the Hershey players were doing as just how sluggish Backstrom was much of the time. They were a different team with a slackened pace in closing out plays. It may have also been them simply hitting a wall and not being able to sustain such a level over a longer period. Plenty of players gradually went MIA.

I think an internal belief re: 19 is also probably why MacLellan was so unsparingly blunt in his assessment of 19 and the potential for more of a full recovery. It is a massive elephant in the room that they can't do much about. It's why, as much as they could be active to change things up, it's hard to say how many assets they should dump in order to still probably have this huge problem gumming up the works. They can try to finesse it. They can try to make him more of a soft-minute PP specialist but it's potentially a massive structural impediment.

Don't forget the wheels came off the year before when he returned, too.

Last 82 games without Nicklas Backstrom:
43 - 25 - 14 record

Last 82 games with Nicklas Backstrom:
35 - 40 - 7 record

 

[HTFN]

Look at TOI in games from December to January

2022-23 Washington Capitals Team Gamelog | Hockey-Reference.com

Check out the latest Washington Capitals game log including regular season and playoff stats and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

Protas was capped at like 10 minutes despite being pretty effective for a while, Backstrom came back and was given 14-17 almost immediately, and they lost a ton of games. Coaching made that call.

 

[trick9]

I disagree. Bringing that line up back would go in the face of what BMac expressed. Changes to the top six. This is more of the same. Why not just rebuild at this point? This isn’t helping Ovi do anything.

I don’t know if people have amnesia but this roster was profoundly bad down the stretch. Like…really really really bad. Counting on a rookie head coach to fix this mess is nuts.

It's not that easy to make those changes though. I mean for sure he wanted to improve the top-6 but it's more on the players like Kuznetsov and Mantha who tanked their value and now nobody wants them at their prices anymore. I'm sure it sucks for GMBM too but he's not an idiot. If he retains salary and gives someone a free Kuznetsov who then goes on to score 80 points for a good team then that's his ass on the chopping block. All because Kuznetsov mailed it in here to tank his value. Same goes with Mantha. If you pay a steep price from our already-poor prospect pool just to get rid of him and he bounces back elsewhere, guess who is getting the boot for it? He paid a steep price to get him here in the first place.

After those 2 we can move on to Backstrom. I thought GMBM put a lot of pressure (more than i'd have expected) on Backstrom to try and solve this situation one way or another because at this point he's holding us hostage with that contract. But there is literally nothing else GMBM can do regarding that situation. Backstrom buy-out or trade isn't coming and as it seems likely that he'll keep on playing, there goes another potential cap help that he had in mind which to use on improving the top-6.

It's easy to blame the GM for not making the team better but this is one of those cases where to me that there is no doubt that this is on the players. They mailed it in and now nobody wants them anymore, because they don't deserve their current pay checks. Backstrom's case is just getting sad now. He's a franchise legend who has dragged this to a point where big part of the fan base wants him to just go away and he's not ready to let go of his dream.

 

[g00n]

I seem to remember that trades etc *can* still happen after training camp starts, yes?

I am not going to feel my anxiety go up daily, simply because it’s June 25th and nothing has happened yet.

And PS — it’s won’t be the same roster as last year. Regardless of any movements. 4-5 Hershey guys will be regulars, and that wasn’t horrible the last time it happened (Oct - Dec in ‘22)

Just my 2 cents

Rids what's wrong with you.... it's been TWO WHOLE WEEKS since the season ended and all of our problems haven't been solved!

 

[twabby]

I seem to remember that trades etc *can* still happen after training camp starts, yes?

I am not going to feel my anxiety go up daily, simply because it’s June 25th and nothing has happened yet.

And PS — it’s won’t be the same roster as last year. Regardless of any movements. 4-5 Hershey guys will be regulars, and that wasn’t horrible the last time it happened (Oct - Dec in ‘22)

Just my 2 cents

Thanks, I needed to read this. I need to remind myself that just because Tom Wilson hasn’t been traded yet doesn’t mean he won’t be traded at some point this offseason, even if it’s training camp. Still plenty of time left.

 

[Brian23]

I’m not one of those who keep throwing this point out.

You've literally spent the last 6 months hand waving any mention of the kids becuase you don't think they're good or ready. Maybe you should put up something for once.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

You've literally spent the last 6 months hand waving any mention of the kids becuase you don't think they're good or ready. Maybe you should put up something for once.

Sorry dude….that was obvious….stats are there…go look yourself at their contributions. You‘re one who kept dropping this, so not surprised at your lazy response and lack of desire to show yourself proven wrong. And I broke down the entire part of the schedule. It’s BS that the young guys (Protas/CMM) were why we had a hot streak…it was just a hot streak and they didn’t bring a ton. Prove me wrong.

I and never said they are/were not “good”, just not ready. Stop making shit up.

Totally not surprised at yours and a few others resistance to digging into this BS finally….

 

[Kalopsia]

Who were really their best players, we know their worst….so….were the wins at home largely where coaching staff can line match, did the goalies raise their games, did the competition fall off or just suck, did we catch tired teams on back 2 backs, or long roadtrips?? Were there strategy changes, hot lines? Did a few guys just play lights out?

Thanks! Let’s first determine early what exactly was the “streak”, because looking at the game logs, they were 10-1 between Dec 5 - Dec 27. 5 straight W’s, loss, 5 straight W’s. Backstrom returned Jan 8th….Oshie went out after the Dec 17th game, returned Jan 3, Tom Wilson also returned Jan 8.

From the end of their hot streak (10-1 run), until 19 and 43 returned on Jan 8, they played 6 games and went 3-4. Carlson was out by this time and they were sliding…

The 10 after All 3 of Oshie, Backstrom and Wilson were all in the lineup (starting Jan 8), they were 4-6. Carlson went out after Dec 23 game….that looks like the beginning of the falloff from my cursory glance…

looking forward to what you can analyze….

Here's some splits based on Carlson's injury, Backstrom's return, and Orlov being traded. The time from the 1st to the 2nd is already too small to really draw any conclusions from, so I didn't try to factor in Oshie being in/out of the lineup and Wilson's return. Not sure there's much we didn't already know here, but I already went to the trouble of making it so might as well post it!

Some of the collapse after Backstrom's return seems to be bad shooting luck and the goaltending dropping off, but I think he deserves a good deal of the credit for the PP cratering. It's interesting how clearly you can the team give up on playing a structured defensive scheme and just trying to score goals after Orlov left.

Edit: That second GA/GP should be SA/GP, obviously.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Here's some splits based on Carlson's injury, Backstrom's return, and Orlov being traded. The time from the 1st to the 2nd is already too small to really draw any conclusions from, so I didn't try to factor in Oshie being in/out of the lineup and Wilson's return. Not sure there's much we didn't already know here, but I already went to the trouble of making it so might as well post it!

Some of the collapse after Backstrom's return seems to be bad shooting luck and the goaltending dropping off, but I think he deserves a good deal of the credit for the PP cratering. It's interesting how clearly you can the team give up on playing a structured defensive scheme and just trying to score goals after Orlov left.

View attachment 721356

Much appreciated….I know there is good info like this (and more) to discuss after deeper analysis.

 

[HTFN]

Sorry dude….that was obvious….stats are there…go look yourself at their contributions. You‘re one who kept dropping this, so not surprised at your lazy response and lack of desire to show yourself proven wrong. And I broke down the entire part of the schedule. It’s BS that the young guys (Protas/CMM) were why we had a hot streak…it was just a hot streak and they didn’t bring a ton. Prove me wrong.

I and never said they are/were not “good”, just not ready. Stop making shit up.

Totally not surprised at yours and a few others resistance to digging into this BS finally….

Right, because nobody wants to play with your warped version of the premise.

Why don't you flip it to "playing the old guys was why they had a cold streak", a premise very backed up by numbers, and then wonder why coaching didn't want to play the players they were winning games with?

For you there's no "proof" to this argument without those kids putting up point per game numbers, like they need to outshine the team's best players to prove that it's them. Really they just needed to be less bad than the replacement, and that's pretty hard to argue.

Pretty sure that was the sentiment in the months it was happening, not the big ol' straw man you've got going here.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Right, because nobody wants to play with your warped version of the premise.

Why don't you flip it to "playing the old guys was why they had a cold streak", a premise very backed up by numbers, and then wonder why coaching didn't want to play the players they were winning games with?

For you there's no "proof" to this argument without those kids putting up point per game numbers, like they need to outshine the team's best players to prove that it's them. Really they just needed to be less bad than the replacement, and that's pretty hard to argue.

Pretty sure that was the sentiment in the months it was happening, not the big ol' straw man you've got going here.

Not much else to discuss with you unless you’re willing to honestly debate the subject by looking at the data closer. Thanks.

 

[HTFN]

Not much else to discuss with you unless you’re willing to honestly debate the subject by looking at the data closer. Thanks.

There it is, same as always. You had numbers in the GDTs for weeks and straight up didn't give a shit, I'm not humoring you now and spending more time just to watch the argument get waved away again. Trolls do that, not people looking for real debate.

I've asked you to explain a basic part of your position and you won't. It's based on two very clear and obvious points that don't need a massive breakdown, and could be engaged in good faith but for some reason you don't want to do that.

edit: and again, after playing pretty heavy word games with the whooooole argument to begin with. Where is the honest debate?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Honestly I can’t understand the resistance to this (trying to be) civil conversation around what the real stats show. Except, that you know…you might be wrong.

I didn’t request you specifically do anything. In fact I asked Twabby and hoped some others I had seen use heavy statistical analysis before, would jump at the chance to finally put this to rest. If you don’t feel obligated to defend your position, it can be proven right or wrong without you mucking up the conversations here.

please tell me the exact position or part you would like me to clarify. I thought we were way past level 1, but I’m happy to catch you up.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Enough with the personal stuff. Move on.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[twabby]

I don't believe this, even if it makes all the sense in the world.

 

[Langway]

Mantha was also mentioned as a possibility. DeBrincat & Batherson? Pinto? Greig? Curious to lock on to Ottawa specifically. Making that sort of move you might as well just rebuild.

 

[The Instigator]

If it was actually Bruce Garrioch saying that's what he'd heard, I may believe it.

He's just repeating what York said on a podcast and I don't have any reason to trust that he's a reliable source.

 

[g00n]

York's source: reading twabby's posts