Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season

[Langway]

So they have around 8 mil of money to use in free agency with really only ferhavary to sign.

It's closer to 7 than 8 and they have at least four spots to fill other than Fehervary. It gets thin pretty quick. Pencil in CMM, Malenstyn, Protas & Johansen and they have a net of $2.4M or so to spend, maybe less, depending on where Fehervary comes in at. Maybe they could sign someone for $3M or so but then that would block one of those Bears you'd think. Spend any more and it's going to require subtractions.

 

[twabby]

I keep hearing this thrown out….but I can’t recall much real production from many of the youngsters who were just in Hershey. So what….they contributed some fresh wheels, a little spring in the step? Not enough…..we need a lot more from them and others next year to be competitive.

I happen to think that streak was on other teammates and good coaching more than those few contributors, but I have not looked at the numbers closely to be sure. You would think our resident math nerds would have confirmed or debunked this by now….

ahem @twabby …..

I’ll try to address this later tonight. I’m away from my command center (6 year old desktop and Cheeto-dusted keyboard) right now and it’s hard to pull up everything on my phone.

 

[RedRocking]

Didnt we have a hot goalie as well? I remember Darcy was hurt and our backup was playing lights out.

Yea Chucky Sideburns was playing way above his head during the hot streak. The team cooled off when Carlson got hurt, which incidentally was the same game Ovi broke Howe’s number. That was as big a turning point as anything last season, including the return of Nick and Wilson.

Without looking at the numbers, I would guess a better argument could be made in favor of the kids’ roles to start the ‘21-22 season.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

I’ll try to address this later tonight. I’m away from my command center (6 year old desktop and Cheeto-dusted keyboard) right now and it’s hard to pull up everything on my phone.

Will we get to see your big board? That's the question that I want answered.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

It's closer to 7 than 8 and they have at least four spots to fill other than Fehervary. It gets thin pretty quick. Pencil in CMM, Malenstyn, Protas & Johansen and they have a net of $2.4M or so to spend, maybe less, depending on where Fehervary comes in at. Maybe they could sign someone for $3M or so but then that would block one of those Bears you'd think. Spend any more and it's going to require subtractions.

Posted this about a week and half ago, but it's relevant to this topic (I had neglected to include LUJO as the 7th dman when I did this so that eats a little more in to what little cap space there'll be)

So as of today, I'm looking at the roster replacements for the coming season as:

McMichael for Eller
Malenstyn for Hathaway/Smith
Protas for Johansson
Snively for Sheary
Sundin for Orlov
with Frank in the wings.

For the aforementioned forwards, I'm seeing that their salaries would eat in to about half of the Projected Cap Space of $7,313,333 that Cap Friendly has for the Capitals. Plus there's still Fehervary's RFA status that needs to be addressed.

Bottom line, limited cap room perhaps for dumpster diving, i.e. waivers etc.. But I don't envision any big splashes for this team this summer.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Posted this about a week and half ago, but it's relevant to this topic (I had neglected to include LUJO as the 7th dman when I did this so that eats a little more in to what little cap space there'll be)

So as of today, I'm looking at the roster replacements for the coming season as:

McMichael for Eller
Malenstyn for Hathaway/Smith
Protas for Johansson
Snively for Sheary
Sundin for Orlov
with Frank in the wings.

For the aforementioned forwards, I'm seeing that their salaries would eat in to about half of the Projected Cap Space of $7,313,333 that Cap Friendly has for the Capitals. Plus there's still Fehervary's RFA status that needs to be addressed.

Bottom line, limited cap room perhaps for dumpster diving, i.e. waivers etc.. But I don't envision any big splashes for this team this summer.

They will be icing an absolute crap roster in that point and should admit they are in a rebuild. Otherwise they are lying. You aren’t competing with that roster except for a top 10 draft spot.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

They will be icing an absolute crap roster in that point and should admit they are in a rebuild. Otherwise they are lying. You aren’t competing with that roster except for a top 10 draft spot.

Here's your possible 23 man roster:

Ovechkin - Kuznetsov - Wilson
Mantha - Strome - Milano
Protas - Backstrom/McMichael - Oshie
Malenstyn - Dowd - NAK
Snively

Fever - Carlson
Sundin - Jensen
AA - TVR
LUJO

Kuemper/Lindgren

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Here's your possible 23 man roster:

Ovechkin - Kuznetsov - Wilson
Mantha - Strome - Milano
Protas - Backstrom/McMichael - Oshie
Malenstyn - Dowd - NAK
Snively

Fever - Carlson
Sundin - Jensen
AA - TVR
LUJO

Kuemper/Lindgren

So, my question is how is that line-up better than last year? The most important players are the exact same and they will all be one year older/slower and just as apt to be injured.

Did anyone else watch BMacs end of year press conference? He said they need to shake up the top six. This would in fact not be that.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Without looking at the numbers, I would guess a better argument could be made in favor of the kids’ roles to start the ‘21-22 season.

FWIW, THAT was the period I was referring to.

The look on Oshie's face on Lappy's first goal was classic.

 

[Langway]

If they're going to spend ~$3M on a UFA it's probably better to spend it on a LD than a forward. Unless they could add Wheeler or something after he's bought out I don't know how far $3M goes for a useful forward. It's tweener territory. Maybe you could get Rodrigues, Dadonov, Kerfoot, Engvall, JVR but they all far short of improving the group much.

I guess Fast could be a decent value target depending on term. He's a versatile player. Maybe Perry for the lulz. They could trade for someone like Ross Colton. But that's a salary bracket you'd like to avoid structurally. Force it in a given year and they might just add another Panik. Going with the Bears may not be ideal but maintaining cap flexibility going forward would be one of the bigger advantages of not being very active.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Maybe it is just me but it feels like there is a lot of settling here and lowered expectations. We go from BMac saying there need to be changes to people basically thinking they can promote the entire Hershey roster. What the hell happened?

 

[BiPolar Caps]

So, my question is how is that line-up better than last year? The most important players are the exact same and they will all be one year older/slower and just as apt to be injured

It's not better. This is the reality of the Capitals situation, an aging team, limited cap and a prospect pool that came about due to the team's past success and thus drafting late in rounds.

As regards to Mantha and Kuzy, we have to be patient with them and see what Carberry can do and how they will perform that might increase their value come the TDL. The actual elephant in the room is Backstrom. Will he return to at least a shadow of himself? That's a 9.2 million dollar question.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

It's not better. This is the reality of the Capitals situation, an aging team, limited cap and a prospect pool that came about due to the team's past success and thus drafting late in rounds.

As regards to Mantha and Kuzy, we have to be patient with them and see what Carberry can do and how they will perform that might increase their value come the TDL. The actual elephant in the room is Backstrom. Will he return to at least a shadow of himself? That's a 9.2 million dollar question.

I disagree. Bringing that line up back would go in the face of what BMac expressed. Changes to the top six. This is more of the same. Why not just rebuild at this point? This isn’t helping Ovi do anything.

I don’t know if people have amnesia but this roster was profoundly bad down the stretch. Like…really really really bad. Counting on a rookie head coach to fix this mess is nuts.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I’ll try to address this later tonight. I’m away from my command center (6 year old desktop and Cheeto-dusted keyboard) right now and it’s hard to pull up everything on my phone.

Who were really their best players, we know their worst….so….were the wins at home largely where coaching staff can line match, did the goalies raise their games, did the competition fall off or just suck, did we catch tired teams on back 2 backs, or long roadtrips?? Were there strategy changes, hot lines? Did a few guys just play lights out?

Thanks! Let’s first determine early what exactly was the “streak”, because looking at the game logs, they were 10-1 between Dec 5 - Dec 27. 5 straight W’s, loss, 5 straight W’s. Backstrom returned Jan 8th….Oshie went out after the Dec 17th game, returned Jan 3, Tom Wilson also returned Jan 8.

From the end of their hot streak (10-1 run), until 19 and 43 returned on Jan 8, they played 6 games and went 3-4. Carlson was out by this time and they were sliding…

The 10 after All 3 of Oshie, Backstrom and Wilson were all in the lineup (starting Jan 8), they were 4-6. Carlson went out after Dec 23 game….that looks like the beginning of the falloff from my cursory glance…

looking forward to what you can analyze….

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Maybe it is just me but it feels like there is a lot of settling here and lowered expectations. We go from BMac saying there need to be changes to people basically thinking they can promote the entire Hershey roster. What the hell happened?

They tried to trade Kuzy, Mantha, and Oshie…..and had had no takers where the ask made sense?


I still think GMBM is going to make some noise….

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

They tried to trade Kuzy, Mantha, and Oshie…..and had had no takers where the ask made sense?


I still think GMBM is going to make some noise….

I sure hope so. Seems like everyone here is accepting nothing. I’m keeping my expectations high.

 

[alphabetical]

I sure hope so. Seems like everyone here is accepting nothing. I’m keeping my expectations high.

It's still 3 months until the preseason starts.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

It's still 3 months until the preseason starts.

Agreed. I’m not questioning BMac. I’m questioning how people here are so quick to accept them doing nothing. I have faith in BMac.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I’d just like to see all the numbers rather than this dickish opinion fest. That dance has been going on too long and is boorish and dull witted to me at this point.

you would think people making this point of contention would want to throw out some evidence….or maybe they don‘t for a reason…I dunno, could be laziness, or just talking out the ass. /shrug

Curious as to why you aren’t throwing out “evidence” either?

The old “do as I say, not as I do” conversation.

I thought the club played w more urgency when Backstrom and Wilson were out. They seemed to work better w each other, and obv they were successful.

Then it all seemed to hit a wall.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Agreed. I’m not questioning BMac. I’m questioning how people here are so quick to accept them doing nothing. I have faith in BMac.

Calling up 5 rookies is not doing nothing. Its a youth movement.

 

[Langway]

It was really Backstrom, right? Not so much Wilson, though some of his analytics were also poor. Backstrom was a -25 in just 39 games. Maybe there was some unluckiness but no one in the league on a per game basis put up the minuses to that extent last season. It's just one stat but I thought there was a very noticeable sag in their play systematically once he returned. I don't think it was so much great things the Hershey players were doing as just how sluggish Backstrom was much of the time. They were a different team with a slackened pace in closing out plays. It may have also been them simply hitting a wall and not being able to sustain such a level over a longer period. Plenty of players gradually went MIA.

I think an internal belief re: 19 is also probably why MacLellan was so unsparingly blunt in his assessment of 19 and the potential for more of a full recovery. It is a massive elephant in the room that they can't do much about. It's why, as much as they could be active to change things up, it's hard to say how many assets they should dump in order to still probably have this huge problem gumming up the works. They can try to finesse it. They can try to make him more of a soft-minute PP specialist but it's potentially a massive structural impediment.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Calling up 5 rookies is not doing nothing. Its a youth movement.

Those 5 rookies are not ready for full time NHL positions. I guarantee you that is not what BMac had in mind.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Maybe it is just me but it feels like there is a lot of settling here and lowered expectations. We go from BMac saying there need to be changes to people basically thinking they can promote the entire Hershey roster. What the hell happened?

I’m not sure what anyone has expected thus far. The draft is where most of the dealing starts, and it rolls right into UFA period.

Unless you are “ok” with giving away Kuz for free and possibly spending capital to move a Mantha, it would seem that the long summer will be where things happen.

If that’s the roster for training camp, then the usual suspects can freak out and complain.

All that said, I find it amusing that a segment of posters spits on all things Laviolette, yet don’t expect Carberry to get better results from the same roster. If HCPL wasn’t maximizing the roster, then that bolsters the argument that the roster wasn’t all that bad.

Caps won’t be “older and slower” even if they make ZERO moves other than the draft. They are injecting youth and urgency (and a winning environment) with the Hershey kids. That alone will improve them, IMO, as it did in December.

Lots and lots and LOTS of time left here. Patience is a virtue. Seldom in a woman, and never in a man.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I’m not sure what anyone has expected thus far. The draft is where most of the dealing starts, and it rolls right into UFA period.

Unless you are “ok” with giving away Kuz for free and possibly spending capital to move a Mantha, it would seem that the long summer will be where things happen.

If that’s the roster for training camp, then the usual suspects can freak out and complain.

All that said, I find it amusing that a segment of posters spits on all things Laviolette, yet don’t expect Carberry to get better results from the same roster. If HCPL wasn’t maximizing the roster, then that bolsters the argument that the roster wasn’t all that bad.

Caps won’t be “older and slower” even if they make ZERO moves other than the draft. They are injecting youth and urgency (and a winning environment) with the Hershey kids. That alone will improve them, IMO, as it did in December.

Lots and lots and LOTS of time left here. Patience is a virtue. Seldom in a woman, and never in a man.

If they have the same roster heading into training camp (they won’t) and you think that is OK…well, I invite you to look up the definition of insanity because this core has done nothing since 2018.

 

[Ridley Simon]

If they have the same roster heading into training camp (they won’t) and you think that is OK…well, I invite you to look up the definition of insanity.

I seem to remember that trades etc *can* still happen after training camp starts, yes?

I am not going to feel my anxiety go up daily, simply because it’s June 25th and nothing has happened yet.

And PS — it’s won’t be the same roster as last year. Regardless of any movements. 4-5 Hershey guys will be regulars, and that wasn’t horrible the last time it happened (Oct - Dec in ‘22)

Just my 2 cents