Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season

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CapitalsCupReality

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It’s also a matter of what Wilson wants on his next deal. We weren’t talking about trading Orlov last June, then he apparently asked for big time money, and here we are.
Very true….I just can’t see the guy looking to break the bank, that’s why I was thinking give him term and lower AAV….give him a big chunk up front…..could see him staying under those conditions. In terms of intangibles….Orlov pales.
 

um

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With the team getting younger, team culture will play an important role, both on the ice and in the locker room. Remember back in 2010, the Capitals won the Presidents Cup with 121 points but I believe it was RJ Umberger who said about the Caps that they would not perform well in the playoffs as they don't know how to play the right way. I think there was a time where even Mike Knuble may have said something similar to a lesser extent.

Both Tom Wilson and TJ Oshie bring a culture that you want the young players to be around and have it rub off on them.

I liked Orlov's game but it's apples and oranges when comparing him to Wilson when it comes to their influence on this team.
I do want to keep Wilson, the point was we don’t know what Wilson wants just yet. Maybe Wilson wants too much money or maybe he doesn’t want to commit to a rebuilding Caps team.

Another scenario is some team massively overpaying for him, but that is unlikely.

Hopefully the conversations to keep him start soon, it seems GMBM intends to keep him.
 

twabby

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It’s also a matter of what Wilson wants on his next deal. We weren’t talking about trading Orlov last June, then he apparently asked for big time money, and here we are.

I think that’s part of it, but as good as Orlov is he didn’t have the ability to bring a big haul in a trade like Wilson does. Not just futures either. I highly suspect he’d be able to bring a significant high-end talent right away if he was made available, especially with an extension in place.

I get the conversation about team culture. I really do. But this team desperately needs talent more than anything. Wilson is a fine player but he’s not a game breaker. What’s the path forward to making this team competitive again in the Ovechkin era without a significant top 6 infusion of talent? How do the Capitals swing a trade for a top-end talent without dangling Wilson? Are we really expecting a Kuznetsov trade to return anything significant? Is anyone really ponying up for Connor McMichael or Miroshnichenko or the 2024 first round pick? Their asset pool is bleak.

Alternatively If the answer is there is no way to become competitive again then it’s even more imperative to trade Wilson now for a futures-heavy package to restock the cupboard for the next era of Capitals hockey.

The general sense I get is that a lot of Capitals fans want to have it both ways: they want to be competitive for Ovechkin’s final few years by acquiring impact top 6 talent, but they’re not willing to give up any assets to make it happen. I’m a little confused how this is supposed to work.
 

SecretaryofDefense5

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So as of today, I'm looking at the roster replacements for the coming season as:

McMichael for Eller
Malenstyn for Hathaway/Smith
Protas for Johansson
Snively for Sheary
Sundin for Orlov
with Frank in the wings.

For the aforementioned forwards, I'm seeing that their salaries would eat in to about half of the Projected Cap Space of $7,313,333 that Cap Friendly has for the Capitals. Plus there's still Fehervary's RFA status that needs to be addressed.

Bottom line, limited cap room perhaps for dumpster diving, i.e. waivers etc.. But I don't envision any big splashes for this team this summer.
They will be worse than last year if that is the plan which I’m fine with if they own it.
 

AlexModvechkin8

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I think it’s time to accept that the most realistic scenario is they just kind of stink for the next two years. Kuznetsov, Backstrom, and Oshie are all anchors of varying degrees on the team and they all have two years of term left. They’ll try to be competitive with the current squad but it’s almost impossible to see a path towards them being contenders barring a few massive moves by GMBM or some real renaissance seasons by the aforementioned trio.
 

Holtbyisms

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I think it’s time to accept that the most realistic scenario is they just kind of stink for the next two years. Kuznetsov, Backstrom, and Oshie are all anchors of varying degrees on the team and they all have two years of term left. They’ll try to be competitive with the current squad but it’s almost impossible to see a path towards them being contenders barring a few massive moves by GMBM or some real renaissance seasons by the aforementioned trio.
I really think that's the plan. BMac can try and save hurt feelings by calling in a retool instead of a rebuild but the facts are that we don't have the correct assets for a quick retool. We'll be on the cusp of the playoffs or wild card bound until ovi retires and then hopefully start seeing some younger guys making a big impact to start moving in the right direction again. We've had a hell of a run and been fortunate to have had the success we've had. Time to start building for the next one.
 

BiPolar Caps

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I really think that's the plan. BMac can try and save hurt feelings by calling in a retool instead of a rebuild but the facts are that we don't have the correct assets for a quick retool. We'll be on the cusp of the playoffs or wild card bound until ovi retires and then hopefully start seeing some younger guys making a big impact to start moving in the right direction again. We've had a hell of a run and been fortunate to have had the success we've had. Time to start building for the next one.
I see this team having first round draft picks in the top 10 for the next few years. Those thinking that this team will be competitive and making the playoffs will be disappointed. Being a successful organization for sometime and as such drafting late in rounds is finally catching up to the organization. The team is aging. No quick fix, need to be patient and draft well and make smart deals when possible. No more spending to the cap. Need cap room to be flexible with the roster. The good news besides drafting so high in the coming seasons is that at the very least, Mantha will be off the books next season, followed by Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Oshie and Dowd the following year (about 24 million of cap) and in the third year it'll be Ovechkin, Carlson, Jensen and TVR (another 24 million) coming off the books. This team will look totally different in three years. Patience!
 

um

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I think it’s time to accept that the most realistic scenario is they just kind of stink for the next two years. Kuznetsov, Backstrom, and Oshie are all anchors of varying degrees on the team and they all have two years of term left. They’ll try to be competitive with the current squad but it’s almost impossible to see a path towards them being contenders barring a few massive moves by GMBM or some real renaissance seasons by the aforementioned trio.
Yep. That’s why I liked the move of bringing in young guys like Sandin and Strome last summer.

You get young players hoping they can help kickstart this machine, and if it doesn’t work they’ll still be around afterwards to build off of.
 

SecretaryofDefense5

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I see this team having first round draft picks in the top 10 for the next few years. Those thinking that this team will be competitive and making the playoffs will be disappointed. Being a successful organization for sometime and as such drafting late in rounds is finally catching up to the organization. The team is aging. No quick fix, need to be patient and draft well and make smart deals when possible. No more spending to the cap. Need cap room to be flexible with the roster. The good news besides drafting so high in the coming seasons is that at the very least, Mantha will be off the books next season, followed by Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Oshie and Dowd the following year (about 24 million of cap) and in the third year it'll be Ovechkin, Carlson, Jensen and TVR (another 24 million) coming off the books. This team will look totally different in three years. Patience!
I do feel bad for Ovi should it play out like that. Spending your last few years in the NHL on a non competitive team won’t be fun but I guess it is what it is.
 
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BiPolar Caps

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I do feel bad for Ovi should it play out like that. Spending your last few years on the NHL on a crap team and won’t be fun but I guess it is what it is.
He's got 73 goals to go to pass Gretzky. The next two seasons I envision his linemates will be familiar ones as well as the PP unit not changing too much in order to accommodate him. You try to bring in some new personnel for the top 6 right now, they may not feel as bought in to getting Ovie the record as does the current group.
 

AlexModvechkin8

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In two years you hope McMichael and Lapierre have established themselves as 2 or 3Cs, Miro looks like a top six winger, whoever they get at 8 this year looks ready to compete, Iorio is ready for the NHL, Protas and Malenstyn have established themselves in DC, and Suzdalev has had strong seasons in the AHL. Let’s delude ourselves into thinking we’re getting Michkov and “they” buy out the last year of his deal. You’d be looking at:

Michkov-Strome-Miro
Ovechkin-McMichael-Wilson
Milano-Lapierre-xxx
Malenstyn-Protas-xxx

It’s not a bad foundation. Maybe Suzdalev can be another Milano-like middle six winger. You can see where they’re going to need more talent on the wings and potentially a top line center as well. And they need CMM and Lapierre to live up to their first round billing. They’re generally very good at finding useful players for those bottom six wingers for cheap so I’m not concerned there. Ovechkin will probably be pretty limited and sheltered at ES at that point. And if Iorio and/or Chesley are ready for spots it won’t be hard fetching a good return for TvR and/or Jensen.

I’m excited to see the next generation develop. That forward lineup has eight first round picks in it so the pedigrees are encouraging. If players develop and they make a few savvy additions there’s no reason they can’t be a perennial playoff team again. And with Michkov and Miro you have star-quality potential. It’s also just as easy to imagine some or many of these guys not panning out and they’re awful but I’m cautiously optimistic that won’t be the case.
 

Langway

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They're going to need more grit you'd think, especially among the middle six centers. They'll need at least a more effective forechecking presence throughout the lineup if they're a bit short on premier impact. Maybe in time as CMM/Lapierre fill out further and gain confidence it extends out to improved physical play but it's never likely to be a bread and butter area.

I have hope Carbery will still manage to finesse effectiveness out of mediocre lineups but they could stand to thin the prospect base to add either premier talent or sturdier forechecking presences. McMichael and Lapierre just sort of falling between in those two categories makes for a very mediocre center mix, in addition to Strome likely not quite hitting the mark as a true 1C.

More than anything they need to position themselves well for when the cap jumps up. That starts with locking in Fehervary, Wilson and Sandin and from there being able to capitalize on some cap flexibility. Many teams will have that luxury to the point where inflation is assured but nonetheless they need to hold a high line, do a good job development assets in order to pounce on available impact in the coming years.
 

HTFN

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They're going to need more grit you'd think, especially among the middle six centers. They'll need at least a more effective forechecking presence throughout the lineup if they're a bit short on premier impact. Maybe in time as CMM/Lapierre fill out further and gain confidence it extends out to improved physical play but it's never likely to be a bread and butter area.

I have hope Carbery will still manage to finesse effectiveness out of mediocre lineups but they could stand to thin the prospect base to add either premier talent or sturdier forechecking presences. McMichael and Lapierre just sort of falling between in those two categories makes for a very mediocre center mix, in addition to Strome likely not quite hitting the mark as a true 1C.

More than anything they need to position themselves well for when the cap jumps up. That starts with locking in Fehervary, Wilson and Sandin and from there being able to capitalize on some cap flexibility. Many teams will have that luxury to the point where inflation is assured but nonetheless they need to hold a high line, do a good job development assets in order to pounce on available impact in the coming years.
That's a pretty flexible fix though, because unless we expect both McMichael and Lapierre to hit at a high level there's a pretty good chance you can swap one for a 3C with more grit. Reclamation prospect for older, maxed out role player is a relatively easy trade to make, just have to see who will go.
 

BiPolar Caps

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If come this time next season, they have moved on from both Mantha and Kuznetsov, that's 13.5 mil in cap.

The 2024 Center UFAs currently look like this:


PLAYER (55)TEAMTYPEAGEPOS.HEIGHTWEIGHTSHOOTSGPGAPWGAASV%2023-2024 CAP HIT
Auston MatthewsTORUFA26.8C6' 3"208L$11,640,250
Anze KopitarLAKUFA36.9C6' 3"225L$10,000,000
Steven StamkosTBLUFA34.4C6' 0"182R$8,500,000
William NylanderTORUFA28.2C6' 0"204R$6,962,366
Sam ReinhartFLAUFA28.6C6' 2"193R$6,500,000
Mark ScheifeleWPGUFA31.3C6' 3"198R$6,125,000
Jake GuentzelPITUFA29.7C5' 11"180L$6,000,000
Adam HenriqueANAUFA34.4C6' 0"195L$5,825,000
Teuvo TeravainenCARUFA29.8C5' 11"191L$5,400,000
Mikael BacklundCGYUFA35.3C6' 0"206L$5,350,000
Bryan LittleARIUFA36.6C6' 0"191R$5,291,000
Jonathan MarchessaultVGKUFA33.5C5' 9"183R$5,000,000
Tyler JohnsonCHIUFA33.9C5' 8"185R$5,000,000
Elias LindholmCGYUFA29.6C6' 1"202R$4,850,000
Alexander WennbergSEAUFA29.8C6' 2"190L$4,500,000
Jack RoslovicCBJUFA27.4C6' 1"200R$4,000,000
Joe PavelskiDALUFA40.0C5' 11"200R$3,500,000
Jeff CarterPITUFA39.5C6' 3"219R$3,125,000
Chandler StephensonWASUFA30.2C6' 0"209L$2,750,000
Jason DickinsonCHIUFA30.0C6' 2"200L$2,650,000
Yakov TreninNSHUFA27.5C6' 2"201L$1,700,000
Kevin RooneyCGYUFA31.1C6' 2"190L$1,300,000
Colin BlackwellCHIUFA31.3C5' 9"190R$1,200,000
Sam LaffertyTORUFA29.3C6' 1"195R$1,150,000
Rem PitlickMTLUFA27.2C5' 11"186L$1,100,000
Nick CousinsFLAUFA30.9C5' 11"192L$1,100,000
Steven LorentzSJSUFA28.2C6' 4"206L$1,050,000
Sam CarrickANAUFA32.4C6' 0"200R$850,000
Jansen HarkinsWPGUFA27.1C$850,000
Dakota JoshuaVANUFA28.1C6' 3"206L$825,000
Thomas NovakNSHUFA27.2C6' 1"179L$800,000
T.J. TynanCOLUFA32.4C5' 8"160R$787,500
Mark JankowskiNSHUFA29.8C6' 4"212L$775,000
Callahan BurkeCOLUFA27.3C$775,000
Luke PhilpCHIUFA28.6C$775,000
Liam O'BrienARIUFA29.9C6' 1"213L$775,000
Kyle CliffordTORUFA33.5C6' 2"211L$762,500
Matthew PecaSTLUFA31.2C5' 10"181L$762,500
Tanner LaczynskiPHIUFA27.1C6' 1"190R$762,500
Jonny BrodzinskiNYRUFA31.0C6' 0"212R$762,500
Sheldon DriesVANUFA30.2C5' 9"180L$762,500
Andrew PoturalskiSEAUFA30.5C5' 10"183R$762,500
Cooper MarodyPHIUFA27.5C$762,500
Brendan GaunceCBJUFA30.3C6' 3"214L$762,500
Nicolas PetanMINUFA29.3C5' 9"175L$762,500
Glenn GawdinANAUFA27.3C6' 1"185R$762,500
Steven FogartyMINUFA31.2C6' 3"200R$762,500
Byron FroeseVGKUFA33.3C6' 1"202R$762,500
Adam BrooksPHIUFA28.1C5' 10"174$762,500
Michael AmadioVGKUFA28.1C6' 1"204R$762,500
Austin CzarnikDETUFA31.6C5' 9"170R$762,500
Cameron HughesSEAUFA27.7C$762,500
Jean-Sebastien DeaARIUFA30.4C5' 11"175R$762,500
Chase De LeoANAUFA28.7C5' 9"186L$762,500
Alex Barre-BouletTBLUFA27.1C$758,333

Whereas come the 2025 season and the departure of Backstrom, Oshie, Dowd (another 15 mil in cap space with those three).

The Center UFAs for that year look like

PLAYER (34)TEAMTYPEAGEPOS.HEIGHTWEIGHTSHOOTSGPGAPWGAASV%2024-2025 CAP HIT
John TavaresTORUFA34.8C6' 1"216L$11,000,000
Nicklas BackstromWASUFA37.6C6' 1"202L$9,200,000
Sidney CrosbyPITUFA37.9C5' 11"200L$8,700,000
Leon DraisaitlEDMUFA29.7C6' 2"208L$8,500,000
Ryan JohansenNSHUFA32.9C6' 3"218R$8,000,000
Evgeny KuznetsovWASUFA33.1C6' 2"207L$7,800,000
Claude GirouxOTTUFA37.5C5' 11"185R$6,500,000
Brock NelsonNYIUFA33.7C6' 4"210L$6,000,000
Travis KonecnyPHIUFA28.3C5' 10"175R$5,500,000
Yanni GourdeSEAUFA33.5C5' 9"174L$5,166,666
Mikael GranlundPITUFA33.3C5' 10"185L$5,000,000
Christian DvorakMTLUFA29.4C6' 1"193L$4,450,000
Sam BennettFLAUFA29.0C6' 1"195L$4,425,000
Andreas AthanasiouCHIUFA30.9C6' 2"190L$4,250,000
Carter VerhaegheFLAUFA29.9C6' 2"180L$4,166,667
Alex IafalloLAKUFA31.5C6' 0"200L$4,000,000
Robby FabbriDETUFA29.4C5' 11"185L$4,000,000
Brandon TanevSEAUFA33.5C6' 0"189L$3,500,000
Radek FaksaDALUFA31.5C6' 3"225L$3,250,000
Sean KuralyCBJUFA32.4C6' 2"213L$2,500,000
Mason AppletonWPGUFA29.5C6' 3"197R$2,166,666
Nico SturmSJSUFA30.2C6' 3"209L$2,000,000
Marcus JohanssonMINUFA34.7C6' 1"203L$2,000,000
Jake EvansMTLUFA29.1C6' 0"186R$1,700,000
Nic DowdWASUFA35.1C6' 1"193R$1,300,000
Logan O'ConnorCOLUFA33.7C6' 0"175R$1,050,000
Curtis LazarNJDUFA30.4C6' 0"203R$1,000,000
Derek RyanEDMUFA38.5C5' 10"185R$900,000
Michael PezzettaMTLUFA27.3C6' 1"210R$812,500
Michael EyssimontTBLUFA28.8C6' 0"180L$800,000
Clark BishopCGYUFA29.3C6' 1"197L$775,000
Dominic ToninatoWPGUFA31.3C6' 2"191L$775,000
Michael SgarbossaWASUFA32.9C5' 11"175L$775,000
Zac DalpeFLAUFA35.7C6' 2"197R$775,000
 
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Langway

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That's a pretty flexible fix though, because unless we expect both McMichael and Lapierre to hit at a high level there's a pretty good chance you can swap one for a 3C with more grit. Reclamation prospect for older, maxed out role player is a relatively easy trade to make, just have to see who will go.
Not sure they'll even carry that much value if they hold on to them too long. At least not one of the better 3Cs. I haven't been all that impressed in the Calder Cup playoffs. They're fine positionally but too often content on the perimeter. Neither seems to profile as a player that's going to move the needle with that sort of settling at the AHL level even.

The Strome as 1C issue is thornier. Fortifying the position while juggling whatever role Backstrom is suited is a delicate dance. For the time being I'm not concerned about blocking CMM/Lapierre if they can upgrade over Kuznetsov next season. I think it's probably for the best that they force CMM/Lapierre to dominate to earn a solid chance. To steal someone's spot or else. If their compete level doesn't improve they'll only have themselves to blame.
 

HTFN

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Not sure they'll even carry that much value if they hold on to them too long. At least not one of the better 3Cs. I haven't been all that impressed in the Calder Cup playoffs. They're fine positionally but too often content on the perimeter. Neither seems to profile as a player that's going to move the needle with that sort of settling at the AHL level even.

The Strome as 1C issue is thornier. Fortifying the position while juggling whatever role Backstrom is suited is a delicate dance. For the time being I'm not concerned about blocking CMM/Lapierre if they can upgrade over Kuznetsov next season. I think it's probably for the best that they force CMM/Lapierre to dominate to earn a solid chance. To steal someone's spot or else. If their compete level doesn't improve they'll only have themselves to blame.
In my view of things, if they both "bust out" the change will be this year to capitalize on, well, capital. If Lapierre isn't the guy they need this will be the year they leverage that, because he's still entirely young enough for someone else to be a little stupid depending on where he was in their draft boards.

I think you can package either asset in the next year with something semi-tantalizing and spin the deal into something that improves over that CMM/Lapierre part of the trade because they're young enough and in one development program that somebody will think there's an exit there.

If not, well, maybe trust the rest of the league's scouting and just bail. Testing the waters is a profitable mindset either way.
 

Brian23

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Neither seems to profile as a player that's going to move the needle with that sort of settling at the AHL level even.
I got the opposite impression from someone like McMichael. He seemed like a guy that would play better with the higher talent level of the NHL and true top 6 line-mates. They're just so much slower to react and make decisions in the AHL that his skills, his hockey iq and passing ability, are semi-wasted. I have not really noticed Lapierre one way or the other though.

None of the prospects are guys who'd dominate off pure athletics, though you'd like to see Protas use his body more but big guys always take time, so its hard to really gauge their value in my opinion.
 

HTFN

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I got the opposite impression from someone like McMichael. He seemed like a guy that would play better with the higher talent level of the NHL and true top 6 line-mates. They're just so much slower to react and make decisions in the AHL that his skills, his hockey iq and passing ability, are semi-wasted. I have not really noticed Lapierre one way or the other though.
I've always felt this way about McMichael, he's a cerebral guy who needs to understand how the game works before the best of what he has to offer will manifest.

That may still be not that good but the way they've developed him has only made it more prevalent, because he went to the AHL and struggled and then figured that shit out and now he's playing the game again.

I don't see where he can't do that at the NHL level it's just going to take some time and faith.

and to be fair he may reach a midpoint in his NHL career where he needs to decide to be a cerebral checking center if he can't make offense, but I don't necessarily doubt that he can if he applied it. Just need to let players find their own space to make their careers and adapt.
 

Langway

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McMichael reminds me of Stephenson in some ways. Stephenson was more of a silky skater and more polished defensively but similarly smooth yet lacking routine second effort to really pop. McMichael is at least theoretically more of a finisher. The issue is more gaining an initial foothold under Carbery to do well enough as a work in progress while he works on some areas. Even if they trade Kuznetsov one wonder or another they'll add another center you'd think.

Protas could also factor in their center plans, though you'd like to see him played there more regularly if so.
 

Ridley Simon

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Protas should absolutely fit into the C equation. Kid is getting better and better.

In 2-3 yrs he will easily be top 9 material. Prob at C. He’s a gem.

I also don’t see why we are now punting Dowd, when his contract is up? Why is that, exactly?

His game isn’t one I see aging poorly. Even at 35 (in 2yrs). Let’s wait and see
 

kicksavedave

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The general sense I get is that a lot of Capitals fans want to have it both ways: they want to be competitive for Ovechkin’s final few years by acquiring impact top 6 talent, but they’re not willing to give up any assets to make it happen. I’m a little confused how this is supposed to work.

No way. No one would suggest they both go for it and rebuild at the same time. That's just stupid. Where did you read such a silly thing?
 

g00n

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Yes because not wanting to give up a specific player means you don't want to give up anything.

Not at all a strawman
 

Jags

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Alternatively If the answer is there is no way to become competitive again then it’s even more imperative to trade Wilson now for a futures-heavy package to restock the cupboard for the next era of Capitals hockey.

Now we're talking. These last few years you were the guy that'd occasionally remind us that you don't care what the team looks like after Ovi.

I know for you it's an alternative to getting something that can help with Ovi now, but dealing Wilson for futures -- once again, UNLESS it's a crazy package -- has a hit-or-miss chance of improving the team the way you suggest it might. Prospects and picks don't work out with a real frequency, a team dealing for Wilson will likely be a contender (meaning lower 1sts), and the likeliest type of move -- one that includes a more established future-ish prospect -- won't yield much more than that.

When the realistic return starts to sound that questionable or underwhelming and the player at issue is a guy beloved by everyone but you, the idea itself gets pretty ho-hum.

IF he's asking for stupid money/term and/or IF a team backs up a Brinks truck, sure. But otherwise, nah.
 
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