Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season

[CapitalsCupReality]

Why do all of Twabby’s trades center around the idea that everyone else will stupidly overpay for players we are considering moving?

 

[Langway]

Jarome Iginla is probably the biggest PF after Ovechkin post-lockout. Brendan Shanahan played a few seasons. Those are a different category of skilled power forward, though. Wilson isn't a perennial 30-40 goal scorer. He could hit 30 I think but any team acquiring Wilson and paying him $7M+ will need to be fine with him just being a ~20 goal scorer down the line, general menace and leader. There are some Orpik similarities in terms of intangibles a team would mainly be paying a premium to acquire. He's a freak. A one of one.

It's a lot less the regular season individual measurable impact than team culture, team toughness and the grind mentality that make GMs salivate. There could be an inefficiency to exploit rather than being the ones investing in a potential decline...but there would be immense work to do repairing the room post-Orlov/Hathway/Wilson. Even if they were to target an established talent like Marner or Nylander I don't think it would go over very well losing yet another valued competitor that's been around for years. For that reason and more I think they find common ground. It's up to Wilson how hard a bargain he'll drive. This is his big final contract and you wonder if he won't try to maximize earnings. The Caps have the flexibility to go to $7-8M and budge on term. It's not ideal structurally but the cap should significantly rise in a year or two and reset the market. Maintaining flexibility and efficiency in the meantime will be key to be well positioned when that reset happens.

Either way, they absolutely cannot go into the season without an extension. Either hammer one out or trade him because a trade deadline sort of package will be a big miss.

 

[Jags]

I think it's unconvincing and unthoughtful to assume Wilson will defy what happens to almost every other player, including other "unicorns", simply because he is himself a "unicorn." I hope MacLellan applies a bit more rigor to his decision-making rather than relying what I believe is simply wishful thinking.

The word "simply" is where you lose me. Every GM is thinking wishfully when they sign someone to a long-term contract. And no one is saying that Wilson's value is high "simply" for any one reason. His versatility is what makes him unique, and being versatile means there are several reasons to like him.

Players that impact the game in a half-dozen categories every time they step on the ice are exceptionally rare. And while no NHL player has ever truly aged gracefully, your "almost every other player" assertion is a huge overstatement. When a player with his brand of versatility has some expected falloff, they're still worthwhile players. You brought up two players whose impact fell off a cliff and two players that didn't. EVERY player falls off as they age. The question is always whether the player they are now is still worth a spot in the lineup, and no one can predict that.

You want a comp that isn't as crazy as it sounds? Justin Williams. Very little similarity in style, but I think Wilson has that kind of wily, versatile, leadership presence, even if he loses some of his thump later on. And he's proven to be durable. An ACL isn't the nail-biter it used to be. Look at the level he got back to without an offseason.

If I had to guess at the best comp for Wilson when he's 35, Williams is about where I'd land. Still a big contributor, still versatile, and most importantly a leader that players rally around. Tom's EH projection last year (for what it's worth) was $6.5m. He'll likely do considerably better than that, and with what the cap will be in 6 years, his cap hit will be pretty comparable to us giving JW $4.5m with an injury history that suggested he should be wrapped in Nerf for the rest of his life.

And you're leaving out the part where I agree that we should trade Tom if the price is right. I tapdanced on the word "huge" a bit for emphasis, but I'm realistic. What you mentioned from LA might do it for me.

 

[HTFN]

He seemed to improve a bit as the season went on, but he still had his worst year as a pro last year from a GAR standpoint. Much of that has to do with his injury recovery, but I think it's a bit optimistic to assume that he'll recover fully with no ill-effects from a torn ACL. How do we know this isn't the start of his decline and that he'll continue to produce at the same level as now? You could have said the same thing about Lucic, Simmonds, and Ovechkin who all showed no signs of slowing down at the time they were Wilson's age, yet they all did shortly after. I think it's unconvincing and unthoughtful to assume Wilson will defy what happens to almost every other player, including other "unicorns", simply because he is himself a "unicorn." I hope MacLellan applies a bit more rigor to his decision-making rather than relying what I believe is simply wishful thinking.

If we're using Ovechkin as the closest comparable then I'd hesitate even more with re-signing him. Ovechkin, machine that he is, slowed down considerably in his 30s from an overall impact standpoint. If the same type of reduction in impact can be expected out of Wilson then since he is falling from a much lower baseline than Ovechkin his impact could get pretty generic pretty quickly. Yet I doubt his next contract is going to be generic.

The reason I've been in favor of a Wilson trade is precisely because I expect the return to be massive. I think almost every team in the league would be in on him to some degree, and several of them would be in on him very seriously and willing to part with blue chip pieces. And this is why I think they need to move him this offseason because they should have the entire NHL bidding on his services, not like 4 or 5 teams at the TDL that could maybe fit him in with retention and would not be willing to part with quality roster players in the middle of a playoff push.

I suspect most of the GMs in the league think exactly like most here do: that he's a unicorn. You don't balk at the price of a unicorn. You pay for a unicorn.

Condensed answer: you can't use a model for that and GAR is pretty obviously not going to tell you as much about a player returning twice from injury in one season and getting the pace of the game back under him. If he looked significantly different that might be something, but as the year was coming to an end he was pretty obviously getting the rust out of his game and confidence in his legs.

Nobody's going to say he's still doing this at 40 or anything because, you know, it's sports... but as usual your projections always skew towards an average amalgamation of a ton of other players and don't do anything to understand individuals.

Thus: defensemen never improve after 22

 

[g00n]

Jesus f***ing christ

 

[Todos a la Calle]

Regardless of what we do going forward with Mr. Wilson ... his current contract thas turned out to be an excellent one. I remember folks were saying it was a massive overpayment.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Daily Faceoff claims Orlov’s camp will be looking for an 8 million+ AAV this summer.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Those Kings fans are tools on the trade forums. They dont deserve Wilson. Its not our fault they failed when they traded for Lucic

 

[Calicaps]

Daily Faceoff claims Orlov’s camp will be looking for an 8 million+ AAV this summer.

As he should. Will miss him, but fare thee well, Dima.

 

[twabby]

Condensed answer: you can't use a model for that and GAR is pretty obviously not going to tell you as much about a player returning twice from injury in one season and getting the pace of the game back under him. If he looked significantly different that might be something, but as the year was coming to an end he was pretty obviously getting the rust out of his game and confidence in his legs.

Nobody's going to say he's still doing this at 40 or anything because, you know, it's sports... but as usual your projections always skew towards an average amalgamation of a ton of other players and don't do anything to understand individuals.

Thus: defensemen never improve after 22

Even if he hadn’t just suffered an ACL injury I’d have questions about re-signing him. Too many good but not elite players fall off at this age regardless of injury history. I understand your point about using too broad of a data set to generalize, but I think there is far more danger in disregarding the general trend and trying to overfit based on specific criteria that may or may not have an impact on how a player ages.

I think more than anything though is the opportunity cost of re-signing Wilson. Re-signing Wilson is effectively saying no to a treasure trove of assets including a potential franchise player that could kickstart a retool. For a team that needs a retool and is otherwise asset-poor it’s a no-brainer for me.

 

[HTFN]

Even if he hadn’t just suffered an ACL injury I’d have questions about re-signing him. Too many good but not elite players fall off at this age regardless of injury history. I understand your point about using too broad of a data set to generalize, but I think there is far more danger in disregarding the general trend and trying to overfit based on specific criteria that may or may not have an impact on how a player ages.

I think more than anything though is the opportunity cost of re-signing Wilson. Re-signing Wilson is effectively saying no to a treasure trove of assets including a potential franchise player that could kickstart a retool. For a team that needs a retool and is otherwise asset-poor it’s a no-brainer for me.

Well yeah but those are separate discussions. If we're talking about why the Capitals should hold on to him I'm more inclined to agree with you.

If we're talking about why teams should pay for him just because he's injured and 30, there's where we differ because a no-camp, double-recovery Tom Wilson still didn't even take very long to get up to speed and produced in a way that doesn't project immediate decline.

 

[Roshi]

I like Jags comparement of Williams for Wilson. I get it. The "smooth" leadership vibes, a guy that doesnt try to pretent anything he is not and doesnt make a lot of noice around himself, but just is a genuinely good and likable guy.

For the transition phase, retool, rebuild, whatever we are going to go ahead in the upcoming years, I think its absolutely vital to have a guy like Wilson there. Someone who's loyal to the bone for your organization, shows commitment and continuity, is great leader and great example for young kids. And will even fight a heavy bout for them if need to be. You dont build winning organizations by just losing, losing and losing and trading everyone of value out for more and more magic beans. It doesnt matter how much talent you have if you learn to accept losing mentality.

Sure if you get an offer thats overpayment enough, everything has its price and you can look to address this part of the process by other routes. But for something thats just "speeds up the rebuild by years", I dont believe in it. Theres no shortcuts to build a winning franchise. Coming back to Justin Williams, I think its not coincidence his been through the Kings dynasty, had his gentle touch in our franchises first cup, and went on helping to turn the Canes into a perennial contender.

 

[trick9]

I don't think Wilson is going to get moved. Barring an absolutely ridiculous offer. Perhaps it could happen closer to the deadline if (for some reason) the contract talks have stalled, but i don't really see it.

Part of me does want to see the West burn by sending him out there. He's such a huge physical presence to have for a Playoff series so it's a shame he didn't get there this season.

Though at the same breath i would never want to watch Wilson play against the Capitals. That would suck. It would also drag the entertainment level of the Capitals hockey to a pretty bad state after Ovechkin retires. Wilson is a very exciting player to watch with his physicality and he does bring fans to the edge of their seats.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

There needs to be a massive return if Wilson goes otherwise I think if Wilson is gone you’re looking at a tough sell for fans in terms of who and what this team is, and frankly for the guys in the locker room too. Tom Wilson makes this team better and if he’s sold, especially if it’s for futures, then you’re signaling that you don’t think you can compete.

Oshie and Backstrom are old and broken and shells of the players they used to be. Kuznetsov is maddening. They’ve lost fan favorites like Orlov and Hathaway. The fanbase is over Mantha. They’ve signed some players to good value deals like Milano, Strome, Jensen, TvR but Wilson is one of the few remaining players who gives this team a pulse and an identity. That’s important during a transition. You need locker room guys and guys who can be leaders on the ice to help bridge the gap from one generation of players to the next.

With Backstrom, Oshie, and Kuznetsov all gone in two years (at most) and with Ovi potentially gone in three, Wilson seems like the ideal guy to be the face of the franchise while they go through the transition period. He’s great for the younger guys to be around and he’s still a very good player with probably 3-4 years of top six play in him. The cap will go up significantly over the next few years and they have almost no contracts signed after 2025-26 so I’m not all that worried about what an extension for Tom means in relation to the cap situation.

Besides Ovechkin, trading Wilson would be the toughest pill to swallow for that locker room and for the fans. I don’t think that aspect should be understated when discussing the merits or dangers of trading him.

 

[max21]

The Wilson hype is so real in the trade section, there’s like 4 threads on him I love it. Everyone secretly loves him, but you can’t have him. Sorry

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Attended the 3/21/2023 Capitals game where they gave out the Ovechkin bobblehead goal counter. While standing in line on F Street, it was obviously a sea of Capitals jersey's and as expected Ovechkin's jersey was the most popular. But I noted that the next two most prevalent jersey's in the crowd were Tom Wilson and TJ Oshie. I don't recall seeing a Backstrom or Kuznetsov jersey at the time. I was wearing my Dale Hunter jersey.

FWIW, all of this means nothing. However, I believe it did reveal a bit of the fan base and who they value on the team. I'd be very surprised to see Wilson moved. As some have noted here, I envision Wilson getting the "C" once Ovie retires.

 

[Pigskin]

Give him $40m for 8 years I say. I assume he would take that.
He can be captain after Ovi, hopefully play top 6 for 3 or 4 more years and then slide down the lineup with the C. Buyout or retire toward the end if necessary.

Love him

 

[um]

Give him $40m for 8 years I say. I assume he would take that.
He can be captain after Ovi, hopefully play top 6 for 3 or 4 more years and then slide down the lineup with the C. Buyout or retire toward the end if necessary.

Love him

That’s a lot of money for him to give up, I think

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Like most here, would like to see Mantha and Kuznetsov gone. But when to move them is the question. I'm inclined to take a wait and see approach on this and see how they perform under Spencer Carberry.

Both of these players have a prove it season approaching. They can't blame the coach, the onus will be on them. Not that either player needs motivation, but Mantha is in his contract year so it's time for him to put up.

I think the talk of BMAC "dangling" both of these players on the trade market is yes to see what their current value is but also to go back to the players and their agents and say hey we made you available but this is how you are presently valued within the league. Perhaps another motivational ploy by BMAC.

Again take a wait and see approach and perhaps their value will increase come the TDL.

 

[Jags]

Give him $40m for 8 years I say. I assume he would take that.
He can be captain after Ovi, hopefully play top 6 for 3 or 4 more years and then slide down the lineup with the C. Buyout or retire toward the end if necessary.

Love him

I think he'd get $7m per on the open market, easy. If we could lock him up for $5m per I don't think we'd be having this discussion. Twabby would just be talking to himself.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

That’s a lot of money for him to give up, I think

Is it? What’s he getting on the open market? $7 per?

 

[Hivemind]

Kuznetsov - I think his fate is the most interlinked with what other roster moves are coming. Given the question marks surrounding Backstrom's health and future performance, it's difficult to guarantee Kuzy moves out unless there's another top 6 center coming in. I could certainly see a mutual change-of-scenery deal happening (some kind of 3-way trade involving Winnipeg and Kuzy being shipped off to a place that isn't on his 10 team NTC). But I don't think they should force it to happen. If there's a good fit, go for it. But don't jam thru a trade for the sake of a trade while Kuzy's value is at its lowest. This is a player who pretty much alternates between good and poor seasons, with only two years remaining on his contract. His cap hit, while sizable, isn't ridiculous when you consider that guys like Ryan Johansen, Robert Thomas, and Nick Suzuki have higher AAVs. If there's not a good fit for a deal now, there should be plenty of options next off-season when Kuzy's entering his final season (so other teams can acquire him as a rental with less budgeting concerns) and hopefully he's coming off a stronger season to boost his value.

Mantha - I'm torn between a desire to avoid selling low (selling at rock bottom, really) on a player, and the fact that the Mantha experiment was a bad idea from the start. It's hard to imagine Mantha's production being worse than it was last season, so there should be room for a potential rebound with a new coach (particularly if that coach is willing to actually give Mantha reliable line-mates and/or powerplay time). So there is a certain logic to keeping Mantha around for a few months, rebuilding his value, and then trading him at some point between the new year and the trade deadline. But both salary and roster spots are going to have to free up if they're serious about re-tooling the top six, adding team speed, and adding youth to the team. And it's hard to find a better option to free up that salary and roster space than Mantha.

Wilson - A forward-thinking GM signs a player for what they believe he will do, not for what that player has already done in the past. If there's a team-friendly deal to be made that doesn't saddle this franchise with yet another bloated contract for a fan favorite of the Cup era, then that deal can be made. But that would require Wilson leaving a lot of money on the table. Sell a player at high value, rather than turn them into a depreciating asset. Ridiculous overpayment or not, Tanner Jeanot fetched Cal Foote and five draft picks. With the post-season that Matthew Tkachuk is having, half the league is poised to be looking for their Tkachuk. Someone else is going to do something stupid like the Jeanot trade, let's be the beneficiary of that reactionary overpayment. Seize the moment here.

Oshie - If they don't move Wilson or Mantha, they have to at least explore the option of moving Oshie. The best opportunities to sidestep the back-end of his contract have likely already passed. If they keep him, he can still be useful as a powerplay specialist and cultural leader, but they should be expecting him to slot in lower-and-lower in the even strength line-up each year. He was third on the Caps in goal scoring last year despite only playing 58 games, but that's more about the complete lack of depth production on the Capitals last season than it was a vow for Oshie. 9 of his 19 goals came with the man advantage. His even-strength goal scoring was tied with Milano and Mantha, and behind Nic Dowd.

Sheary - Fine plug-in for a few years, but it's time to let him walk and explore younger options.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

The trade forum is awful. I need to stop reading these dumb ass trade offers.
If GMBM is getting offers this bad I would turn off my phone.

HF trade posters think the Caps roster is shopping at the Dollar Store

 

[HeyMattyB]

The trade forum is awful. I need to stop reading these dumb ass trade offers.

It truly is, and I regret spending some of my free time this afternoon reading those offers.

I should have spent that time doing laundry or washing my hair or something.

 

[Hivemind]

The trade forum is awful. I need to stop reading these dumb ass trade offers.
If GMBM is getting offers this bad I would turn off my phone.

HF trade posters think the Caps roster is shopping at the Dollar Store

It doesn't help that there's a couple Caps fans who pretty much exclusively post on the Trade Forum and spend their whole time overvaluing Caps players and saying that every single trade concept is bad for the Caps.