If at the deadline they’re out of it I’d be ok with moving him for a haul with an under the table agreement in place to resign him July 1. 
Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season
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I think I’d actually cry a little
OV Rocks
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Before Dubas left I had the thought of Wilson, Kuzy and 8OA for Nylander and Knies. Doubt they do anything rash now with the new leadership.
This is where I sit as well. For better or for worse (and I realize it may be for worse)
To me he’s every bit the Cap that Carlson and Backstrom are. He’s been here since he was 19, we’ve watched him grow up as a person and as a player over his 10 year career in DC, he’s an integral part of the team and of the core, he was a huge part in bringing a Cup here… he’s now a part of “the immortals” of this franchise. Watching him play another 5-8 years in the league in a different uniform would suck ass. This isn’t the case of a guy who is 35 and it’s time to move on and he’s looking for a series of one year deals with contenders to chase Cups, this is a guy who still has a lot of good years ahead of him and it feels like those years should be here.
But yeah, I also understand that every decision should be about giving the organization the best chance to win a Cup and if moving him is clearly the best decision then so be it. If that’s the case though I’ll definitely have a period of mourning
NobodyBeatsTheWiz
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twabby
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Does anybody have any recent comparables for Tom Wilson over the years that are now older than Wilson? I'm interested in reviewing Wilson's comparables in particular to see how we might be able to project him going forward.
Lucic and Simmonds come to mind for me. Their careers took a turn for the worse starting at around age 28 (Wilson's current age).
Milan Lucic:
A few good years in a limited role in Calgary, but mostly replacement level or below since age 28 in 2016-17.
Wayne Simmonds:
From age 28 until now he's been pretty much below replacement level and is likely going to be out of the league next year.
For reference, here's Tom Wilson to date:
These three curves look awfully similar up to age 28. The other concerning thing is that neither Lucic nor Simmonds really suffered any injuries that predated their rather steep declines, while Wilson did indeed just suffer a major injury.
I don't know, there is a ton of risk involved in re-signing him and I don't really think there is that much reward. He's been a good complementary top 6 forward who relies on good teammates at his very best. And it's unlikely he's going to even remain that good given his age and playstyle.
On the other hand there is potentially a huge reward involved with dealing him to a desperate team looking to recreate some Tkachuk magic. Aside from sentimentality, I don't see a strong case for re-signing Wilson and rejecting a potential treasure trove of assets in a deal that could immediately initiate a retool.
Washington pretty much has to thread a perfect needle in order to become competitive again in the Ovie era. Dealing Wilson could help do just that.
Lucic and Simmonds come to mind for me. Their careers took a turn for the worse starting at around age 28 (Wilson's current age).
Milan Lucic:
A few good years in a limited role in Calgary, but mostly replacement level or below since age 28 in 2016-17.
Wayne Simmonds:
From age 28 until now he's been pretty much below replacement level and is likely going to be out of the league next year.
For reference, here's Tom Wilson to date:
These three curves look awfully similar up to age 28. The other concerning thing is that neither Lucic nor Simmonds really suffered any injuries that predated their rather steep declines, while Wilson did indeed just suffer a major injury.
I don't know, there is a ton of risk involved in re-signing him and I don't really think there is that much reward. He's been a good complementary top 6 forward who relies on good teammates at his very best. And it's unlikely he's going to even remain that good given his age and playstyle.
On the other hand there is potentially a huge reward involved with dealing him to a desperate team looking to recreate some Tkachuk magic. Aside from sentimentality, I don't see a strong case for re-signing Wilson and rejecting a potential treasure trove of assets in a deal that could immediately initiate a retool.
Washington pretty much has to thread a perfect needle in order to become competitive again in the Ovie era. Dealing Wilson could help do just that.
895
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NobodyBeatsTheWiz
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A sample size of 2 shouldn't be acceptable for a self-professed stat guy.
Wilson is a better skater than Simmonds or Lucic ever were. That’s part of what makes him unique. He skates way too fast and too well than anyone his size should. Does that ability just fall off a cliff? I don’t think so. There haven’t been any noticeable signs of him slowing down. I was worried he’d become a worse skater after the knee injury but he looked every bit of Tom Wilson after busting off the rust. Lucic and Simmonds really struggled after they lost a step or two but they were never terrific skaters to begin with.
ArmadilloThumb
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twabby
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I’m not using them as statistical samples but rather as anecdotes and cautionary tales.
The statistical evidence of his play likely falling off would be overall aging curves with hundreds of players as the sample. Unfortunately aging curves are considered witchcraft in these parts.
twabby
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Would Ovechkin be considered a comparable?
Certainly not the same level of player, but both power forwards who are/were good skaters. Ovechkin had a down year at age 28, and then saw a significant dropoff at age 30 and hasn’t been the same player since. Of course Ovechkin has a much higher baseline so he’s still been an effective player late into his 30s.
Certainly not the same level of player, but both power forwards who are/were good skaters. Ovechkin had a down year at age 28, and then saw a significant dropoff at age 30 and hasn’t been the same player since. Of course Ovechkin has a much higher baseline so he’s still been an effective player late into his 30s.
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Calicaps
NFA
Before the death of his father last year and the team's general suckage, Ovie was on pace for another 50-goal season. He's surely not the skater he was as a younger man, but he's literally had the same goal/game and goal/year pace his entire career. He's consistency (and effectiveness) personified. And he has no comparables.
twabby
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The goal production is similar but the overall impact on goal-differential certainly isn’t. He’s far less able to take over games like he used to be able to. Which is fine, he’s basically a mummy in hockey years. But he has seen a significant decline in play as he entered his 30s.
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I was gonna say the same thing. I think the early drop-off of power forwards typically gets attributed to wear and tear from the play style, but the real issue is these guys were only passable skaters in their primes and they couldn't afford to lose a step without the game totally passing them by.
Wilson's also much better defensively than Lucic or Simmonds ever were, so he's contributing a lot more even when he's not scoring.
NobodyBeatsTheWiz
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You could have also cited Gary Roberts, Shane Doan, Bill Guerin, Rod Brind'Amour, etc. as comparable stylistically. Those guys would have anecdotally shown that forwards with a high physical style can produce well into their 30s.
If roster construction were dependent on aging curves, anyone north of 30 would be toxic.
twabby
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Roberts didn’t play much after 2008 so there’s little GAR data for him. Guerin and Brind’Amour barely went past 2008 and they were sub-replacement in their final years, though I have no idea how they aged from their 20s into their 30s.
Doan is interesting in that he was an impactful 30 year old and had a few other great years in his 30s. But in general he did show a steady decline over his 30s. However his 20s occurred before 2008 so I don’t have a GAR baseline to compare him to.
Are there any comparables whose careers mainly spanned post 2008?
Jags
Mildly Disturbed
You said it in an earlier post. He's a unicorn. There are no comparables. It makes his value really hard to pin down.
His recent injury is something that could happen to anyone, not a byproduct of playing big, and he rebounded extremely well. Lucic and Simmonds weren't nearly as versatile, and Wilson has the size/strength/speed combo that Ovechkin had, with a similar level of imperviousness and durability. I honestly don't think there's a better player to compare him to than Ovi. That they ended up on the same team was huge for us. If their primes had lined up more, yikes.
So that's your comp range. In the huge spectrum between Lucic/Simmonds and Ovechkin, Wilson falls somewhere in the middle? And I'd say more on the Ovi side of that line because of that unicorn factor. No one in the league plays bigger than he does, he's plenty fast, is a standout PKer, capable of 25+, has elite net presence and deflection skills, oozes leadership, is absolutely beloved by teammates and fans alike, and then there's that clip with him and Panarin...
Physical breakdown was the cautionary part of their tales. There's little evidence of that with Tom.
I agree with you that he should be on the trading block now. I think he's durable enough that he's got some prime years left, but given where this team is now those years simply do not line up with our needs. But the return would need to be HUGE. If there's a team capable of contending now with the assets to surrender, adding Tom Wilson is the type of move that could get them over the hump. He's capable of changing the game that much for a team that lacks what he brings.
Huge though. The kind of return that'll make every other fanbase in the league say that GM got fleeced (while quietly admitting to themselves that they're gutted their team didn't land him).
I'm in the camp that says both things can be true: I'd trade him for the appropriately massive return, and I'll be perfectly happy if we never make that happen and he retires here.
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That's the issue with trying to project Wilson's 30s - he really doesn't have any good comps. Here's a list of every NHL forward Wilson's age or older with at least 300 GP post 2008 who's A) at least 6'4 and at least 220, or B) recorded >=10 hits/60 (I know hits aren't a well validated stat, but bare with me). Without even factoring in offensive production or trying to judge skating ability, the intersection of those two lists leaves us with just Wilson, Bryan Bickell (whose career was cut short by MS), George Parros, and Mike Rupp (two career goons). He's just too unique to project with any degree of confidence.
Not really bud. And that’s the unicorn piece to Our Own Top Line Tommy Wilson. There aren’t compatibles.
Lucic was arguably the guy that everyone “hoped” TLTW would become. Well, he’s not the same player. Lucic scored more, didn’t play much D, was always slow, but dominated physically.
TLTW doesn’t score near as much as Lucic did in his hey day, but plays a lot more D, is much much faster, and still dominates physically.
TLTW’s last few games of the season really showed his “being back”, and if that guy was here all season, they make the playoffs (not even mentioning Carlson’s absence and the ghosts of Kuznetsov & Mantha skating around the ice)
Edit — @Jags beat me to much of this, but that’s ok, I’m in good company
Jags
Mildly Disturbed
I really don't think this would be that. Fehervary might end up a serviceable middle pair guy, but definitely not much more than that. So long as the league sees it that way or better, a trade could easily makes sense, especially considering that Mac's "dumpster dives" have a tendency to turn out as diamonds in the rough. He's good at that.
I'm not opposed to moving him, but I agree that there's real value there that we'd need to get back.
twabby
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You said it in an earlier post. He's a unicorn. There are no comparables. It makes his value really hard to pin down.
His recent injury is something that could happen to anyone, not a byproduct of playing big, and he rebounded extremely well. Lucic and Simmonds weren't nearly as versatile, and Wilson has the size/strength/speed combo that Ovechkin had, with a similar level of imperviousness and durability. I honestly don't think there's a better player to compare him to than Ovi. That they ended up on the same team was huge for us. If their primes had lined up more, yikes.
So that's your comp range. In the huge spectrum between Lucic/Simmonds and Ovechkin, Wilson falls somewhere in the middle? And I'd say more on the Ovi side of that line because of that unicorn factor. No one in the league plays bigger than he does, he's plenty fast, is a standout PKer, capable of 25+, has elite net presence and deflection skills, oozes leadership, is absolutely beloved by teammates and fans alike, and then there's that clip with him and Panarin...
Physical breakdown was the cautionary part of their tales. There's little evidence of that with Tom.
I agree with you that he should be on the trading block now. I think he's durable enough that he's got some prime years left, but given where this team is now those years simply do not line up with our needs. But the return would need to be HUGE. If there's a team capable of contending now with the assets to surrender, adding Tom Wilson is the type of move that could get them over the hump. He's capable of changing the game that much for a team that lacks what he brings.
Huge though. The kind of return that'll make every other fanbase in the league say that GM got fleeced (while quietly admitting to themselves that they're gutted their team didn't land him).
I'm in the camp that says both things can be true: I'd trade him for the appropriately massive return, and I'll be perfectly happy if we never make that happen and he retires here.
He seemed to improve a bit as the season went on, but he still had his worst year as a pro last year from a GAR standpoint. Much of that has to do with his injury recovery, but I think it's a bit optimistic to assume that he'll recover fully with no ill-effects from a torn ACL. How do we know this isn't the start of his decline and that he'll continue to produce at the same level as now? You could have said the same thing about Lucic, Simmonds, and Ovechkin who all showed no signs of slowing down at the time they were Wilson's age, yet they all did shortly after. I think it's unconvincing and unthoughtful to assume Wilson will defy what happens to almost every other player, including other "unicorns", simply because he is himself a "unicorn." I hope MacLellan applies a bit more rigor to his decision-making rather than relying what I believe is simply wishful thinking.
If we're using Ovechkin as the closest comparable then I'd hesitate even more with re-signing him. Ovechkin, machine that he is, slowed down considerably in his 30s from an overall impact standpoint. If the same type of reduction in impact can be expected out of Wilson then since he is falling from a much lower baseline than Ovechkin his impact could get pretty generic pretty quickly. Yet I doubt his next contract is going to be generic.
The reason I've been in favor of a Wilson trade is precisely because I expect the return to be massive. I think almost every team in the league would be in on him to some degree, and several of them would be in on him very seriously and willing to part with blue chip pieces. And this is why I think they need to move him this offseason because they should have the entire NHL bidding on his services, not like 4 or 5 teams at the TDL that could maybe fit him in with retention and would not be willing to part with quality roster players in the middle of a playoff push.
I suspect most of the GMs in the league think exactly like most here do: that he's a unicorn. You don't balk at the price of a unicorn. You pay for a unicorn.
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Acallabeth
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I believe I've said it before: Wilson is probably the only current roster player trading whom can be expected to improve the team significantly.
I love Tom (and Nicky, and TJ), and if he loves us back, discuss the possibility of him returning to Washington even after a potential trade. If he is all business and will choose the best contract, I'm sure there will be some team bound to offer him more than the Caps anyway.
I love Tom (and Nicky, and TJ), and if he loves us back, discuss the possibility of him returning to Washington even after a potential trade. If he is all business and will choose the best contract, I'm sure there will be some team bound to offer him more than the Caps anyway.
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