Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season

[HTFN]

I’m not a hockey guy. I prefer to watch darts. Much more interesting sport. But the idea of Backstrom converting to wing seems preposterous to me. What about Backstrom’s game makes him suited to the wing?

I mean, he's going to be 3F on every forecheck but the idea is to flex him to the center position in offensive moments and probably flex to wing in defensive, up and down races. You want that guy with the puck so it's not at all a problem to give him more carrying opportunities, you just need to make sure that the technical center can get back on the play. It's probably tough to let Backstrom do both, so let him play the o-zone as a C/puck handler and let the defensive responsibility go to somebody with legs.

 

[g00n]

Until it’s proven otherwise…I would say it is a completely relevant data point

It's not a "data point" it's a sample size of like 2 or 3 which is basically anecdotal.

 

[Kalopsia]

It's not a "data point" it's a sample size of like 2 or 3 which is basically anecdotal.

I'm being pedantic here, but it absolutely is a data point. What you guys are arguing is more like whether or not there's enough data points to establish a trend.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

I’m not a hockey guy. I prefer to watch darts. Much more interesting sport. But the idea of Backstrom converting to wing seems preposterous to me. What about Backstrom’s game makes him suited to the wing?

I was trying to anticipate where they they might try him as a starting point if he insisted on returning. They owe him that courtesy at least for a couple of weeks in October. From there, if he insists on continuing and is worse, he should move to 13th forward and then the Nachos duty.

I personally think they are going through the motions with this, and I suspect we will see forthcoming a legitimate medical opinion of "continued play jeopardizes long-term health," and LTIR solves this gracefully.

 

[HecticGlow]

I think the team likely benefits from having NB next season, even if he doesn’t significantly improve and he’s just there primarily power play duty. The PP is is going to be an important factor in getting Ovi the goal scoring title, as 5v5 will no doubt get progressively harder as he ages. Especially if you’re looking to move Kuzy, being able to utilise Backstrom on the half-wall is very important to the team’s success and Ovi’s personally, and I think people are quick to forget how hard it is to replace him in that role. Remember, even Kuzy couldn’t hang on PP1 for much of last season.

The bigger hole to me is at 1C (assuming Strome is their 2C). Getting a 1C performance out of Kuzy (or his replacement) is far more important in my view for the team staying competitive, than whether Backstrom breaks even at 3C. If NB is playing 18 minutes a night, without having the play to justify it, that will be on the coaches’ usage of him more than it will be on him.

Realistically 3C is upgradable at the TDL if required, and by signing Strome to an extension when NB had barely even returned GMBM made it clear to me only two of NB, EK and DS were intended for the top-6. I get that NB has a significant cap hit, but I’d say that’s balanced out somewhat by value in other areas of the lineup (including Milano and Strome’s deals).

The key Qs for me are:
* Is Wilson healthy and back to full effectiveness?
* Can they get a 1C performance out of EK or his replacement?
* Can they get a 2RW performance out of Mantha or his replacement?
* Who can effectively fill the 2LW position?
* Is Dowd at 100% after core surgery, especially if used in a shutdown role again?
* Where does Oshie play in the lineup?

I’m not doubting NB’s play will be an important factor in next year’s performance, but removing Nick from the lineup isn’t the great cure some are implying. And a LOT more than NB went wrong last season.

 

[trick9]

Tarik El-Bashir of The Athletic: The Washington Capitals are still working on their list of potential assistant coaches for next season according to sources.

Capitals GM Brian MacLellan is looking at the trade market to change things up, but he’s not just going to unload Anthony Mantha and/or Evgeny Kuznetsov just to move their contracts. He wants to make the team better. Player-for-player trades aren’t easy to make.

Teams are calling the Capitals about moving back from the No. 8 pick in the draft but as of now, they aren’t interested.

The Capitals don’t intend to buy anyone out this year.

There haven’t been any contract talks between the Capitals and pending RFA defenseman Martin Fehervary yet but that is expected to change in the upcoming weeks. They may look at a bridge deal but if they could get a good cap number on a long-term deal, they would consider it.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

LOL GMBM cant just come out and say Mantha and Kuz are at the goodwill store.

 

[Brian23]

Kuzya is the only one I'd really want to move this offseason, I think Mantha will rebound and probably provide more value at the TDL if they can stomach the wait.

I wonder what a "good cap number" would be for Fehervary. Like, to me a good cap number would basically be the same thing as what your standard bridge might be. I don't know how you go over 3 million for what he's provided so far, and that still feels like a stretch.

 

[Carlzner]

If Winnipeg doesn’t want a full rebuild, Dubois for Kuznetsov + might be interesting for them…

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[max21]

If Winnipeg doesn’t want a full rebuild, Dubois for Kuznetsov + might be interesting for them…

Sounds like he only wants to sign in Montreal

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Nicklas Backstrom: 2022-23 season review

Nicklas Backstrom had a life-altering hip surgery last year. By the Numbers 39 games played 16.9 time on ice per game 7…

russianmachineneverbreaks.com

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Nicklas Backstrom: 2022-23 season review

Nicklas Backstrom had a life-altering hip surgery last year. By the Numbers 39 games played 16.9 time on ice per game 7…

russianmachineneverbreaks.com

Heh funny….

“ Using Evolving-Hockey’s catch-all goals-above-replacement (GAR) stat, Backstrom’s impact on the team (by rate, not totals) was better than Evgeny Kuznetsov’s, but that’s it.”

 

[HTFN]

Heh funny….

“ Using Evolving-Hockey’s catch-all goals-above-replacement (GAR) stat, Backstrom’s impact on the team (by rate, not totals) was better than Evgeny Kuznetsov’s, but that’s it.”

I said it back during the season but if you're Kuznetsov and the only player they say you're out-performing is the hip injury guy you're a f***ing trainwreck and need to get your shit together asap. He was fairly regularly behind him in the game cards Twabby was posting.

 

[trick9]

If Winnipeg doesn’t want a full rebuild, Dubois for Kuznetsov + might be interesting for them…

That could be a fit but Kuznetsov has a 10-team no-trade list and Winnipeg is at the top of every one of those lists.

 

[Roshi]

Dubois is 2/2 in forcing his way out of the team. He has his mind set where he wants to play and i think thats fine.

But for that he is pure one year rental so i dont see why we should break the bank for him. And i have hard time to see Winnipeg not being on Kuzys NTC-list too. My guess would be that Kuz has all Canadians blocked, Arizona and then couple random locations.

If we entertain the idea of trading Kuzy and acquiring short time rental id be fine with ROR. Though i think he is gonna be a Canes or Avs.

 

[usiel]

Not a fancy stats person but this did jump out trying to use AI for NHL analytics.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/06/08/ai-hockey-analytics/

Berkery and his team analyzed nearly 200,000 faceoffs. Each of those had around 850 data points attached. The group mapped those plays to write code and build their model, finding that each faceoff is worth about .015 goals on average. The model enables teams to analyze a player’s faceoff performance to evaluate his effectiveness, allowing staffers to simulate how a player would perform on their team in any given role — and how much better their team would perform as a result. It could help general managers identify effective players at lower costs, Berkery said.

“Our kind of rule of thumb is that if you can win six more faceoffs per game, you can add about 15 goals in production for free to your team’s bottom line. Six more faceoffs is kind of like a middle six forward,” Berkery said. “And with that significant impact on the table, we don’t see teams using faceoffs as a market inefficiency, to the extent that our models say it exists.”

 

[twabby]

Not a fancy stats person but this did jump out trying to use AI for NHL analytics.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/06/08/ai-hockey-analytics/

It seems like this result is no different than work done 11 years ago regarding the value of faceoffs:

https://www.statsportsconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/FaceoffAnalysis12-12.pdf

I’ve cited this paper before, and their result estimates 76.5 faceoff wins is worth a goal, or that a single faceoff win is worth ~0.013 goals. The AI driven approach described in the WaPo article estimates that a faceoff win is worth about 0.015 goals, about the same as the 2012 paper.

I mean I’m glad this group is going to be able to present their work to a NHL team but I’m not sure it’s going to be all that insightful compared to prior work, at least based on the snippets in the WaPo article.

 

[g00n]

Faceoffs matter. Faceoffs don't matter.

Make up your minds, stats.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Every time I read on here that faceoffs don’t matter the next hockey game I watch someone scores off a faceoff, without fail.

 

[Langway]

Yolo Jarmo. Lezgotrades.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Every time I read on here that faceoffs don’t matter the next hockey game I watch someone scores off a faceoff, without fail.

It’s really one of the dumber statements ever posted on this site…they don’t matter until they do….lol.

 

[crazy8888]

It’s really one of the dumber statements ever posted on this site…they don’t matter until they do….lol.

Puck possesion is overrated

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Puck possesion is overrated

GOALS are overrated!

 

[Kalopsia]

Yolo Jarmo. Lezgotrades.

Jesus. Orlov's gotta be getting 7+M for 7 years if that's where the market is.