Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season

[Jags]

Corey Perry a former Hart and Rocket winner plays on the 4th line on winning teams. He does not make his teams suck because he is forcing the team to play him in the top of the lineup. Backstrom should take a slice of humble pie and realize hes not the same player anymore.

I see what you're getting at, but that's an odd comparison. Perry was bought out of the last 2 years of a $9m contract when he was Nick's age. Part of the reason he played for peanuts after that was because he was still getting buyout money on top of it.

So if the comp is Perry then you're kinda suggesting we should buy Nick out and continue to pay him millions against the cap for four more years. Then if he's eating that humble pie helping a team in a 3rd or 4th line role it'll be some other team on our dime.

I think we just grin and bear it. We owe him, and the initial buyout would still cost a ton against the cap for two of those years. What we'd have to pay to move his contract would be prohibitive and counterintuitive to what our roster gameplan should be for the foreseeable future.

Keep our trade assets, concede that a buyout makes no sense (only save 4m the first year, 1 the second, then it costs 1 per year for the next two), and let him have whatever "ride off into the sunset" moment he's looking for.

 

[HTFN]

Corey Perry a former Hart and Rocket winner plays on the 4th line on winning teams. He does not make his teams suck because he is forcing the team to play him in the top of the lineup. Backstrom should take a slice of humble pie and realize hes not the same player anymore.

Dude, experience it through the shoes of the guy doing it. He came back, he made it back on the ice, his hip didn't buckle or explode and he made it through the year. That's all positive from his perspective.

Yeah, he wasn't his old self. I doubt anybody is more aware of that than him, but he's a competitor even if you don't see it and he no doubt learned a lot from the experience. Let him take an offseason, condition, etc. because there's no guarantee that he's not watching his own film and trying to figure out how he can be most beneficial for the team.

This is Nick Backstrom we're talking about. Quiet, playmaking, team boosting, defense playing "go out there and make the team win" guy. He knows what's going on, but definitely feels like he deserves time to keep pushing upwards if he feels like he's still healing and improving.

If we hit December and this is still an issue I'll concede the point but I really think he's owed this offseason to reach whatever his "max health" will mean from here on out before officially determining how he needs to be used. If next year's Backstrom comes back and proves to be an average/serviceable 2nd line center that's perfectly okay.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Corey Perry a former Hart and Rocket winner plays on the 4th line on winning teams. He does not make his teams suck because he is forcing the team to play him in the top of the lineup. Backstrom should take a slice of humble pie and realize hes not the same player anymore.

Not sure what Perry has to do with Backstrom, but Corey Perry doesn‘t make $9 mil and is on his 4th NHL team as he fights to hang on.

If the Caps forced him out, then maybe humble pie comes into play, but this looks like 19‘s decision for now.

I also don't think Backstrom is doing anything like forcing himself into the ‘top of the lineup”.

 

[HTFN]

And that's the other thing, too. Backstrom coming after a full healthy offseason will have no excuses left to himself anymore. If he still can't play at a top 6 level, then maybe he just can't. I don't see many indicators in his personality that would have me believing he'd force his way into a role he couldn't play. That doesn't seem like his style.

It's far more likely that if things still aren't looking good a month into the season, the staff and him sit down and re-evaluate how he can provide the most utility. I would expect Backstrom to be open to that if he's not performing, and there's not one demotion that is ever set in stone anyway.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I see what you're getting at, but that's an odd comparison. Perry was bought out of the last 2 years of a $9m contract when he was Nick's age. Part of the reason he played for peanuts after that was because he was still getting buyout money on top of it.

So if the comp is Perry then you're kinda suggesting we should buy Nick out and continue to pay him millions against the cap for four more years. Then if he's eating that humble pie helping a team in a 3rd or 4th line role it'll be some other team on our dime.

I think we just grin and bear it. We owe him, and the initial buyout would still cost a ton against the cap for two of those years. What we'd have to pay to move his contract would be prohibitive and counterintuitive to what our roster gameplan should be for the foreseeable future.

Keep our trade assets, concede that a buyout makes no sense (only save 4m the first year, 1 the second, then it costs 1 per year for the next two), and let him have whatever "ride off into the sunset" moment he's looking for.

See, I would tend to agree with you but they are up against it with these being Ovi’s last few years. It isn’t possible to just grin and bear it else you possibly screw Ovi over in the process. I don’t have a better solution right now but if you read between the lines sure sounds like BMac gives Backy a chance in training camp and if he completely sucks still maybe there is a discussion of some sort to be had. I don’t know but BMac sure keeps hinting that they can’t keep him at that level and contract but maybe I’m reading into it.

 

[HTFN]

See, I would tend to agree with you but they are up against it with these being Ovi’s last few years. It isn’t possible to just grin and bear it else you possibly screw Ovi over in the process. I don’t have a better solution right now but if you read between the lines sure sounds like BMac gives Backy a chance in training camp and if he completely sucks still maybe there is a discussion of some sort to be had. I don’t know but BMac sure keeps hinting that they can’t keep him at that level and contract but maybe I’m reading into it.

Do you think that Ovechkin doesn't care about Backstrom? The guy he's been riding with for well over a decade?

It's not "Ovi's last few years" weighted against ultimate performance because realistically if Ovechkin wants him there for the end of the story he's going to be there. That matters to the franchise maybe even more than performance vs. dollars, and frankly I'm happy to root for a team that can show an element of humanity. This is our breakthrough to the main stage, the top of the top. If we can't take a little extra care of them what are we doing?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Do you think that Ovechkin doesn't care about Backstrom? The guy he's been riding with for well over a decade?

It's not "Ovi's last few years" weighted against ultimate performance because realistically if Ovechkin wants him there for the end of the story he's going to be there. That matters to the franchise maybe even more than performance vs. dollars, and frankly I'm happy to root for a team that can show an element of humanity. This is our breakthrough to the main stage, the top of the top. If we can't take a little extra care of them what are we doing?

That‘s what I was thinking….I doubt Ovy is looking at this like Backstrom is screwing him over by playing out the deal he earned.

 

[HTFN]

That‘s what I was thinking….I doubt Ovy is looking at this like Backstrom is screwing him over by playing out the deal he earned.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Ovechkin was telling him to make that extra money that he's fully earned. This becomes way more personal when you remove the degrees of separation and I have a hard time thinking that many people in the organization want him to fail. GMBM is doing his job analyzing the options but personally I think he'd be just thrilled if Backstrom came back at serviceable.

Fans looking at the numbers are always going to see it one way but we knew that when the contract was inked, and it wasn't signed with the intent to offload it as soon as reasonably possible.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Do you think that Ovechkin doesn't care about Backstrom? The guy he's been riding with for well over a decade?

It's not "Ovi's last few years" weighted against ultimate performance because realistically if Ovechkin wants him there for the end of the story he's going to be there. That matters to the franchise maybe even more than performance vs. dollars, and frankly I'm happy to root for a team that can show an element of humanity. This is our breakthrough to the main stage, the top of the top. If we can't take a little extra care of them what are we doing?

Sure. Again though, if I’m reading between the lines BMac sure doesn’t sound like he thinks this is going to work if he doesn’t improve his play. Showing humanity is important but the NHL is not a charity league either. Either way Backstrom will get his money but you have to remember, literally, not figuratively, not one NHL player has come back successfully from this surgery. There is a reason for that. Does Backy deeerve a chance to come to camp and try to prove himself? Absolutely. We shall see.

Of course if Ovi wants him to be there at the end he will be. That isn’t a question. Again, if history teaches us anything, players who have had this surgery don’t stick around for long.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I’m soooo tired of hearing “nobody has come back from this”…..well it’s rare it’s done to active players.

There are also possibly better surgeons and techniques, as well as better rehab technologies at the highest levels since the last guy tried and failed to comeback.

I‘m sure at worst, Backstrom will deliver a 4c performance and get PP time, and will be here playing.

 

[usiel]

I have seen other good centers in the league shift to the wing as they get into their 30s and still contribute. Should be an option for Backstrom.

 

[HTFN]

Sure. Again though, if I’m reading between the lines BMac sure doesn’t sound like he thinks this is going to work if he doesn’t improve his play. Showing humanity is important but the NHL is not a charity league either. Either way Backstrom will get his money but you have to remember, literally, not figuratively, not one NHL player has come back successfully from this surgery. There is a reason for that. Does Backy deeerve a chance to come to camp and try to prove himself? Absolutely. We shall see.

Of course if Ovi wants him to be there at the end he will be. That isn’t a question. Again, if history teaches us anything, players who have had this surgery don’t stick around for long.

Okay? What do we have to deal with on that as a data set? Ed Jovanovski's last ditch comeback attempt and what else? It's a relatively new procedure for still-active athletes and has had mixed results from other sports.

You have to give that guy more than 6 months/1year to fully understand what that recovery is going to mean. There's a good chance he can no longer do things the same way he used to, but that doesn't at all mean he can't adapt and adjust just yet. You need to give players reps and time to figure that kind of thing out.

He had those reps this year, he tested himself out and maybe tried to be close to his normal self, but what comes next is still fully in flux. If Backstrom is not experiencing significant improvement I don't think it will be a hard sell to get him to produce in the best way he can.

 

[Calicaps]

Sure. Again though, if I’m reading between the lines BMac sure doesn’t sound like he thinks this is going to work if he doesn’t improve his play. Showing humanity is important but the NHL is not a charity league either. Either way Backstrom will get his money but you have to remember, literally, not figuratively, not one NHL player has come back successfully from this surgery. There is a reason for that. Does Backy deeerve a chance to come to camp and try to prove himself? Absolutely. We shall see.

Of course if Ovi wants him to be there at the end he will be. That isn’t a question. Again, if history teaches us anything, players who have had this surgery don’t stick around for long.

Honestly, if Backstrom was told you can have this surgery and live your life and play with your kids again but never play hockey at a high level, he'd probably still have done it. But I can't imagine a scenario where he didn't ask all the questions about playing again. Someone told him it's possible. And he already has outperformed everyone who came before. He wasn't good, but he played half a season. Each time they do these procedures they learn something. Will it work out? I have no idea, but the first heart transplant didn't look much like that surgery looks today. Things improve.

 

[twabby]

I said it before but I think Backstrom deserves every opportunity to come back next year. But his potential outcomes vary so much that it is very difficult to plan for next season. It’s why I’ve advocated taking a cautious approach to this offseason unless opportunities present themselves. I don’t think they should sign any aging UFAs. I don’t think they should trade for rentals or players who might not be here long term. Etc. Trades for guys like Sandin make all the sense in the world, for instance.

If Backstrom surpasses my expectations and provides top 9 or top 6 level play then maybe adjust during the season. Perhaps make some aggressive in-season moves or at the TDL. If not, no harm done and be aggressive the following season.

 

[HTFN]

I said it before but I think Backstrom deserves every opportunity to come back next year. But his potential outcomes vary so much that it is very difficult to plan for next season. It’s why I’ve advocated taking a cautious approach to this offseason unless opportunities present themselves. I don’t think they should sign any aging UFAs. I don’t think they should trade for rentals or players who might not be here long term. Etc.

If Backstrom surpasses my expectations and provides top 9 or top 6 level play then maybe adjust during the season. If not, no harm done and be aggressive the following season.

That's basically it. They'll know for sure by December/January, and they'll also know if they're a team that needs to add or a team that can be functionally okay selling at the deadline. If they need to add they can search for something to replace him, and if they're selling who really cares? Play him, rack the numbers up, and get a draft pick again.

 

[Jags]

See, I would tend to agree with you but they are up against it with these being Ovi’s last few years. It isn’t possible to just grin and bear it else you possibly screw Ovi over in the process.

How? This team has no real shot at a Cup during Ovi's final years, unless he plays beyond this contract at a lower cap hit.

It'd be nice to believe that there's a real chance at Ovi going out on top, but the record is most likely it for him. IF we have 4 or 5 prospects pan out big in the next couple years, MAYBE then we could be a real threat in the postseason. But that's a dreamy proposition.

This isn't to say we can't be competitive or even squeak out a series win, but we'll continue to have a puncher's chance at best until all that top-end money comes off the books.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I’m soooo tired of hearing “nobody has come back from this”…..well it’s rare it’s done to active players.

There are also possibly better surgeons and techniques, as well as better rehab technologies at the highest levels since the last guy tried and failed to comeback.

I‘m sure at worst, Backstrom will deliver a 4c performance and get PP time, and will be here playing.

Until it’s proven otherwise…I would say it is a completely relevant data point

 

[HTFN]

How? This team has no real shot at a Cup during Ovi's final years, unless he plays beyond this contract at a lower cap hit.

It'd be nice to believe that there's a real chance at Ovi going out on top, but the record is most likely it for him. IF we have 4 or 5 prospects pan out big in the next couple years, MAYBE then we could be a real threat in the postseason. But that's a dreamy proposition.

This isn't to say we can't be competitive or even squeak out a series win, but we'll continue to have a puncher's chance at best until all that top-end money comes off the books.

There's always a shot, it's just not likely to look the way we expect it to look going forward. Anything could happen and one great trade could always swing a tide.

Until it’s proven otherwise…I would say it is a completely relevant data point

Not at all for projection. It's entirely up to the individual and the procedure's execution. If there aren't many it only leads to conclude that there is no conclusive average, every procedure and player can be different when there aren't many.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

How? This team has no real shot at a Cup during Ovi's final years, unless he plays beyond this contract at a lower cap hit.

It'd be nice to believe that there's a real chance at Ovi going out on top, but the record is most likely it for him. IF we have 4 or 5 prospects pan out big in the next couple years, MAYBE then we could be a real threat in the postseason. But that's a dreamy proposition.

This isn't to say we can't be competitive or even squeak out a series win, but we'll continue to have a puncher's chance at best until all that top-end money comes off the books.

I would love to know what Ovi’s viewpoint is and what he was told by GMBM. I doubt he envisioned possibly not making the playoffs his last years in the league. I’m curious to know what his thoughts are and none of us know as of now. It’s all speculation on what he will be OK with.

 

[twabby]

I think it is fair to doubt his ability to come back based on the fact that he was extremely bad and slow after he returned last year, and also that he’s 35 now and even without having a major hip surgery he’s at the age where players see steep declines.

Sure an offseason might help, but how much?

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I think it is fair to doubt his ability to come back based on the fact that he was extremely bad and slow after he returned last year, and also that he’s 35 now and even without having a major hip surgery he’s at the age where players see steep declines.

Sure an offseason might help, but how much?

I don’t want to beat a dead horse here since everyone seems to be optimistic but I’ll quote the brain trust of the team: “I think it’s frustrating in that I don’t know how much better it’s going to get. I haven’t seen any other players do it, recover, and get back to the level they thought they were at before. I don’t know where that ends up with the offseason training. He’s going to have to make a decision on his career where he thinks he’s at.”

“We don’t have experience on observing players that have done it. I don’t know what could happen in the offseason to make it significantly better.”

 

[Jags]

I would love to know what Ovi’s viewpoint is and what he was told by GMBM. I doubt he envisioned possibly not making the playoffs his last years in the league. I’m curious to know what his thoughts are and none of us know as of now. It’s all speculation on what he will be OK with.

I guess I'm not sure what you mean by what he's okay with. No one in the league is okay with losing. But another thing we definitely speculate about here is how much his dissatisfaction really matters in the grand scheme of things.

We have the cap space we have. No one's feelings change that. So you're right, there's so much we don't know. We guess that he wanted Orlov to stay and that maybe he feels the same way about TJ and Nick. But are those feelings his priority, or is it winning? Because we can't keep all those guys and compete. Absolutely can't be done unless some really crazily fortunate shit happens.

It sounded to me like Ted promised him we'd try our best to compete; to do what we can to give him the best chances possible to win. So I would hope that Ovi isn't a dummy, and that the team takes the time to map out our financial realities. If they explain to him that, hey, we need to cut bait on some guys this year to free up the space to put better pieces around you, I think he'd understand. Doesn't mean he'll be happy if the team struggles, but that he's willing to weather a storm so long as we're headed in a direction that gives him a better chance to win.

But if he wants to keep all his friends and win a Stanley Cup, he's living in a dream world.

This team gave him many years of Cup-capable teams and it only got done once. He can't expect to get blood from a stone now, and I think he's smart enough to know that.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

I still think Ovi will WANT to play after this current contract if he is able. I suspect playing in front of his kids is part of that.

He may only be a PP or lesser contributor by then, but if he was realistic about role and salary ask I'd love to see him play as long as he wants.

Also agree about Backstrom potentially as a 3rd line winger. Big ol' Protas at 3C can slide over to Backstrom's side to help with his size when needed. Backstrom's smarts and passing looked a special as always last year, and I expect he would still bring that if he is back.

 

[twabby]

I’m not a hockey guy. I prefer to watch darts. Much more interesting sport. But the idea of Backstrom converting to wing seems preposterous to me. What about Backstrom’s game makes him suited to the wing?

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I guess I'm not sure what you mean by what he's okay with. No one in the league is okay with losing. But another thing we definitely speculate about here is how much his dissatisfaction really matters in the grand scheme of things.

We have the cap space we have. No one's feelings change that. So you're right, there's so much we don't know. We guess that he wanted Orlov to stay and that maybe he feels the same way about TJ and Nick. But are those feelings his priority, or is it winning? Because we can't keep all those guys and compete. Absolutely can't be done unless some really crazily fortunate shit happens.

It sounded to me like Ted promised him we'd try our best to compete; to do what we can to give him the best chances possible to win. So I would hope that Ovi isn't a dummy, and that the team takes the time to map out our financial realities. If they explain to him that, hey, we need to cut bait on some guys this year to free up the space to put better pieces around you, I think he'd understand. Doesn't mean he'll be happy if the team struggles, but that he's willing to weather a storm so long as we're headed in a direction that gives him a better chance to win.

But if he wants to keep all his friends and win a Stanley Cup, he's living in a dream world.

This team gave him many years of Cup-capable teams and it only got done once. He can't expect to get blood from a stone now, and I think he's smart enough to know that.

All good points. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.