Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2023 Off-season

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Ridley Simon

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As stated earlier, Carbery was good w Murray as the G coach. That’s why he didn’t get the ax with the rest of the group.

Curious to see the assistant coaches. Should be fun for conversation the next few weeks

Mantha-Protas- Wilson could be a fun beefy line.

Followed by Ovi-Bäcky-Oshie as the energy line haha.
Strome isn’t much smaller than Protas. Perhaps he’d be a good C for that line?
 

ArmadilloThumb

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Like Tom Wilson, both CCM and Protas seem to take a while to adjust to their jump to the next level, but eventually the offensive production flows. And they all seem to need to be playing in the role best suited to them.

In Wilson's case, it took until he was on a line that was more production focused for his offensive skills to emerge. This also happen in Junior with Plymouth - it was only in his final season he netted a bunch of goals. I was confident he would have a similar evolution in the NHL, and he did.

Protas actually burned up the WHL with offense (with Brett Leason). He has surprised with fast progess at every level since , except with the Caps (yet). Remember this...


CCM also took a few years to explode offensively in the CHL, and his trajectory recently suggests he is potentially on a similar upward path.


I think they both have solid 2C potential at least.
 
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YippieKaey

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Strome isn’t much smaller than Protas. Perhaps he’d be a good C for that line?

Yeah could work but i'd prefer Strome with Ovi if Kuzy continues to not care. And Protas is like 3 inches and 25 pounds heavier than Strome i think so to get the highest beefage per player Protas is a better fit:)
 

g00n

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From an Athletic article looking at every team

1685703655476.png


1685703674285.png


Methodology:

• We’ll be using Dom Luszczyszyn’s player model as an objective measure. Game Score Value Added (GSVA) provides an all-in-one performance metric that weighs factors such as point production, play-driving, defensive impact, penalties drawn, blocked shots, faceoffs, penalty kill impact and more. That impact is then translated to a market value — what that player’s contributions should be worth — and that market value is compared to their actual cap hit. “GSVA/82” will refer to how many wins that player would have added if they appeared in all 82 games.

• The model overrates the market value of depth players. In situations where I felt there was an obvious, egregious flaw in the model’s results for the “best” value contract this season, I called an audible and picked another player (applies for Boston, Carolina, Pittsburgh and St. Louis).

• Only skaters with more than 50 games played will be analyzed; no goalies. The only exception to the games played threshold was the inclusion of Cole Caufield.

• Player bonuses will not be factored in.

• Players that changed teams will not be included. With Bo Horvat, for example, it wouldn’t be right to identify him as a value contract for the Canucks when he’s moved on, but it’d also be strange to highlight how well he played relative to his contract in the Islanders section considering he struggled following the trade.




Passes the eye test, imo.
 

Devil Dancer

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Protas is having a hell of a post season in Hershey. I've been a doubter in the past, since he hasn't looked like a consistent offensive play driver at the NHL level, but this is really encouraging.
 
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Random schmoe

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Random speculation way too soon:

Josh Pillar was a Wild 4th round pick in 2021 who was dealt to the Leafs in the ROR deal. He reportedly dealt with a major injury this past season. The Leafs declined to sign him by June 1, and I believe he's now a FA.

Carbery obviously just came from the Leafs. In his press conference he stressed playing with pace, up tempo. Which happens to be the best part of Pillar's game.

A scouting report from Breaking Down the Full Ryan O'Reilly Acquisition for the Maple Leafs

The final piece of this trade is definitely the most under the radar, but don’t sleep on Josh Pillar. After getting drafted in 2021 by the Minnesota Wild, the 21-year-old Saskatoon Blade has strong skating ability with some real speed. Pillar was a fourth-round pick by the Wild and has spent his development time in the Western Hockey League. This season with Saskatoon, Pillar has four goals and eight assists for twelve points through thirteen games. The dynamic forward also brings some physical traits and a unique blend of skills to add to the Maple Leafs prospect pipeline. Josh Pillar likely won’t make an impact this season with the Maple Leafs, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he contributed to the Marlies a lot sooner. The 21-year-old forward doesn’t bring over much size, but he certainly doesn’t play small. Pillar was out with a lower-body injury for quite some time but did return this week for the Blades.

There's another much bigger scouting report at Did the Maple Leafs get a hidden gem in Josh Pillar?

Small snippet:

Pillar gets great reviews for his skating, in fact it may be his most standout skill. That said, it’s not necessarily because he is the fastest in a straight line. He is certainly fast, but I would say it is merely very good, not elite. He gets excellent reviews for his skating in terms of mechanics and how he uses his pace and agility. Changing speeds, crossovers, footwork, balance, and so on all help him be as effective as he is.


Wonder if we see the Caps sign him to a basic ELC and see how he progresses. Or maybe just an AHL deal, if the Marlies don't do it first.

Ok back to your regularly scheduled Kuzy/Mantha/Backstrom off-season talk.
 
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Cappy76

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Bruce was on NHL radio XM and brought up Kuzy being on the block in Washington. Mentioned a possible trade of Kuzy for Pesce, saying that the team needed D based on the ones that were lost at the end of the season. Not sure that I'd want to move on from Kuzy for Pesce but that would free up roughly 4.8 in cap space next year.

I'll also say that I'm still on my Bertuzzi kick. I really think the team needs to sign him, he's youngish enough and to me he's Tkachuk lite. They actually talked about it on the radio a bit today saying that if Tkachuk is a 10/10 then Bertuzzi is his mold 8/10 in the same areas. Come playoff time he's a guy you want on the team.

Ovie-Strome-Wilson
Bert-CCM-Oshie
Protas-Backstrom-Milano
NAK-Dowd-Frank

That's moving on from both Kuzy and Mantha for unknowns however, and I'm sure that whatever they do moving those two out would have a forward coming back. Not sure where an addition would fit in, unless they moved Frank back to Hershey and dropped Protas/Milano down a line with Oshie dropping a line as well to make room for a potential trade addition for 2RW.
 
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AlexModvechkin8

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I don’t want Oshie in the top six unless he has McMichael at center because he needs someone that can skate. If they move on from Mantha ideally they find a top line right wing and a second line left wing. Would like to see Wilson bumped down to the second line.

Ovi-Strome-xx
xx-McMichael-Wilson
Milano-Backstrom-Oshie
Protas-Dowd-NAK

I’m still all in on the Ehlers train, would love him on that second line. McMichael needs to be their 2C next year. BMac has said next year is a transition year and Carberry has coached him before so it makes no sense not to give him a long leash with the big club next season. Move Kuznetsov and let McMike get a run as 2C. Backstrom can play PP/PK with reduced ESTOI in the bottom six.
 

SherVaughn30

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Still really like the idea of Boudreau and Orpik as the assistants. Doubt either of them are interested, Bruce on the way out and stepping down to asst, and Brooks the opposite side with two young kids and no real coaching experience.
I'm thinking outside the box. New Leafs GM Treliving could possibly fire Keefe and then that could open the door for Boudreau to become the new Leafs coach for the team that drafted him!
 

Kalopsia

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Bruce was on NHL radio XM and brought up Kuzy being on the block in Washington. Mentioned a possible trade of Kuzy for Pesce, saying that the team needed D based on the ones that were lost at the end of the season. Not sure that I'd want to move on from Kuzy for Pesce but that would free up roughly 4.8 in cap space next year.
A friend of mine from grad school played fairly high level youth hockey in the same area as Pesce. Most of the guys he crossed paths with who made it to the NHL he said were assholes, but the one guy he said was nice was Pesce. If MacLellan could flip Kuzy for Pesce I’d throw him a parade, but I doubt the Canes would be interested.
 

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Roshi

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Overpayment. Failure. Sometimes it just doesnt work out. But there was an idea behind the trade and it was ’a big move’ we all were asking for. In paper Mantha fits great for us.

Im still not sure id want to cap dump him. Im sure i dont want to buy out. If theres no ’hockey trade’ to get done id be ready to let Carbery take a try with him (and Kuzy too).
 

MrGone

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When the New England Patriots were rolling they made a living out of trading guys a year to soon. They would get max return for guys. This team loves to hold on to guys until the value is next to nothing.
 

Ovie's Neighbor

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When the New England Patriots were rolling they made a living out of trading guys a year to soon. They would get max return for guys. This team loves to hold on to guys until the value is next to nothing.
I could not agree more. It’s why I didn’t want them to resign Backstrom. Don’t get me wrong I get why they did from a loyalty perspective. But it was a bad hockey move.
 

AlexModvechkin8

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When the New England Patriots were rolling they made a living out of trading guys a year to soon. They would get max return for guys. This team loves to hold on to guys until the value is next to nothing.
The only two trades I remember like that were Jimmy G and Chandler Jones. I’m sure there’s more but what were the ones you were talking about? The Patriots also had Brady. I always thought the pedestal the Patriots were put on was a bit too big. They were worshiped for continuously trading back and getting more draft picks but they were largely ass at drafting for a good period of time. That got masked because Brady was the best player to ever throw a football in the history of the sport. It helps make everyone look good when the player at the most important position in sports is the best of all time.

And hockey is a completely different sport. Football teams find day one starters in every round of the draft and the entire roster building model is around identifying a few guys you want to keep and replacing everyone else with cheaper, younger talent. Which teams in the NHL consistently, on a yearly basis, trade away good players for draft picks and still compete?
 

CapitalsCupReality

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I could not agree more. It’s why I didn’t want them to resign Backstrom. Don’t get me wrong I get why they did from a loyalty perspective. But it was a bad hockey move.
The cheap previous 10 years of All star level play evens it out overall, but it still doesn’t make it easier to swallow now. It was a loyalty play, not a good hockey move.
 

crazy8888

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A friend of mine from grad school played fairly high level youth hockey in the same area as Pesce. Most of the guys he crossed paths with who made it to the NHL he said were assholes, but the one guy he said was nice was Pesce. If MacLellan could flip Kuzy for Pesce I’d throw him a parade, but I doubt the Canes would be interested.
You want to trade for a player because he is nice?
 
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HecticGlow

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Sorry if already discussed, but anyone have any thoughts about Todd Nelson as an assistant coach for the Caps? Essentially the same path as Carbery, but again with the advantage of familiarity with the org, many of the players, Scott Allen etc.

Not sure if his background makes him appropriate for PowerPlay or defense, though?
 

AlexModvechkin8

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You want to trade for a player because he is nice?
All things being equal, it’s better than trading for a Tony DeAngelo or a guy who is a shithead in the locker room. There’s a reason Vancouver had a ton of talent but was largely a disaster. Obviously you don’t trade for a shitty player because he’s nice but Pesce is solid. He could bump TvR to the left side and you’d have a strong right side with Carlson, Pesce, and Jensen.

I’d prefer to trade Kuznetsov for a forward or a LHD (or futures) but if they can get Pesce for him they’re should. He only counts $4M against the cap and is a UFA after the season so if Iorio is ready they could let him walk. Similarly, if the season tanks and they need to sell at the TDL they could get a good return for Pesce at 50% retained.
 

HecticGlow

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I don’t want Oshie in the top six unless he has McMichael at center because he needs someone that can skate. If they move on from Mantha ideally they find a top line right wing and a second line left wing. Would like to see Wilson bumped down to the second line.

Ovi-Strome-xx
xx-McMichael-Wilson
Milano-Backstrom-Oshie
Protas-Dowd-NAK

I’m still all in on the Ehlers train, would love him on that second line. McMichael needs to be their 2C next year. BMac has said next year is a transition year and Carberry has coached him before so it makes no sense not to give him a long leash with the big club next season. Move Kuznetsov and let McMike get a run as 2C. Backstrom can play PP/PK with reduced ESTOI in the bottom six.
Even if CMM is ready for everyday NHL duty - which is far from established - it makes no sense at all to play a rookie at 2C if you think your 3C needs sheltering. That places a lot of pressure on Strome and Dowd.

This would seem more plausible to me, although far from ideal:

Ovi-Strome-Wilson
XXX/Milano-XXX-Oshie
Backstrom-CMM-XXX/Milano
Protas-Dowd-NAK

CMM isn’t a great playmaker, so having Backstrom on his wing could be worth trying. The top-six still isn’t great on the wings, but they’re a little boxed in even after moving Mantha and Kuzy.
 

Carlzner

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Bruce was on NHL radio XM and brought up Kuzy being on the block in Washington. Mentioned a possible trade of Kuzy for Pesce, saying that the team needed D based on the ones that were lost at the end of the season. Not sure that I'd want to move on from Kuzy for Pesce but that would free up roughly 4.8 in cap space next year.
That would be a fantastic deal if the Canes are looking to shake things up
 

RedRocking

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The only two trades I remember like that were Jimmy G and Chandler Jones. I’m sure there’s more but what were the ones you were talking about? The Patriots also had Brady. I always thought the pedestal the Patriots were put on was a bit too big. They were worshiped for continuously trading back and getting more draft picks but they were largely ass at drafting for a good period of time. That got masked because Brady was the best player to ever throw a football in the history of the sport. It helps make everyone look good when the player at the most important position in sports is the best of all time.

And hockey is a completely different sport. Football teams find day one starters in every round of the draft and the entire roster building model is around identifying a few guys you want to keep and replacing everyone else with cheaper, younger talent. Which teams in the NHL consistently, on a yearly basis, trade away good players for draft picks and still compete?
FWIW Richard Seymour, Logan Mankins and Lawyer Milloy also come to mind. The Pats maybe caused the league rethink contract strategy and the value of picks. But their success obviously hasn’t been repeatable because of the Brady and Belichick factors. Mahomes and Reid look pretty good right now though.

But I agree with you that football is a totally different beast. I can’t think of successful hockey team that operates like this - contracts are guaranteed and most of the guys are timed together for windows. Football is a constant churn (with recent draft picks contributing quickly) outside of a few key positions. Maybe portions of the bottom 6 in hockey are closer, but that’s not really the issue.
 
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