Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2023-24 Regular Season Edition

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Reinhart I get Cheechoo vibes. Scored 56 goals on a stacked team and was never close again.

 

[Jags]

Note I was only trying to point out that the 'get Marner' crowd sound like he is the ONLY high quality Free Agent option we will ever have.

The people that adamant about it are also going to crow about how we failed to land him and blame the GM, as if it takes mismanagement to not be the team chosen to land a guy being chased by every team that can afford him. So be prepared for that onslaught of horseshit bitchiness.

I also lean against going after the big name, big dollar UFA who will be soon in decline and thus an Albatross.

I don't think that's the case with Marner. He's about as young as a marquee guy on the trade block will get outside of problematically disgruntled players being moved for reasons that make destination teams cross their fingers (like Kuznetsov and EKane). Without a time machine, I'd rather get him at 27 on max term than any other option. 35 ain't so old for players of his ilk unless their hips blow up.

One thing is certain for me. Until Ovechkin gets his record, this team will be treading water in mid table purgatory. Marner would help with that.

Sure, but would Marner waive to be saddled with that? Ovechkin has never really been a chemistry guy. So Marner would either be looking at joining a one-dimensional line (and an unevolving PP1) or playing away from Ovi with... ? Strome? McMike? Do we have an off-wing for him? Perfect for us to get a guy that can help us develop the talent we have in the pipe -- Guentzel might not have emerged the way he did without getting time with elite talent.

But it's maybe not such a great deal from Marner's perspective.

You get into cap hell by stockpiling guys a dozen guys like Sandin Mantha and TVR and paying them 2x what they're worth not by paying for superstars lol.

Wow. You genuinely put together a really great post, then closed it by trolling again. It's like cooking a really great meal and serving it in a dirty diaper. I was totally on board til that last sentence...

My biggest concern is whether it's enough. Does adding Marner and subtracting whatever it would take to trade for him move this team into contention?

No. We have like a third of our cap tied up in players near the end of their roads. That's the money we'll be able to use to get back where we want to be.

How much Marner helps us immediately is 100% reliant upon what we'd give up to get him. If the Leafs want immediate impact, we might not even be in the running unless they really like Wilson. There's not much else we could give them (that they'd likely want) that would help them now. And if it's futures, they'll most likely want Leonard and then some. He's the only prospect we have likely to blow their skirt up.

I'm indifferent to the idea of this because of how unlikely it seems. We won't be a target spot for him and our best assets either aren't going to suit Toronto or shouldn't be things we're willing to part with.

 

[hb12xchamps]

This is the only section of the internet where I’ve seen Washington and Marner in the same sentence. I’ve seen Vegas linked to Marner more than I’ve seen Washington. From what I’ve heard/seen from reputable sources, Marner wants to stay in Toronto and any potential trade depends on extension talks.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

This is the only section of the internet where I’ve seen Washington and Marner in the same sentence. I’ve seen Vegas linked to Marner more than I’ve seen Washington. From what I’ve heard/seen from reputable sources, Marner wants to stay in Toronto and any potential trade depends on extension talks.

Link? I haven’t seen anything with us in it yet

 

[Roshi]

This is the only section of the internet where I’ve seen Washington and Marner in the same sentence. I’ve seen Vegas linked to Marner more than I’ve seen Washington. From what I’ve heard/seen from reputable sources, Marner wants to stay in Toronto and any potential trade depends on extension talks.

And this likely will remain as the only section these two can be seen in the same sentence.. cant imagine BM targeting someone with NTC and pending contract, that would require all our best current+future assets to trade for.

Again, people thinking Marner could be had for secondary pieces like the Jensens and Dowds and B-prospects are pipe dreaming. Its something along side Wilson+Leonard kind of offer to get it done and maybe even that gets outbid, likely just to see Marner block the trade or take it and walk to the free agency to test his value.

I can see us kicking the tires for Necas. Maybe Ehlers, Buchnevich. Even giving a call to Reinharts agent. But Marner isnt happening.

 

[g00n]

This is the only section of the internet where I’ve seen Washington and Marner in the same sentence. I’ve seen Vegas linked to Marner more than I’ve seen Washington. From what I’ve heard/seen from reputable sources, Marner wants to stay in Toronto and any potential trade depends on extension talks.

Same probably for serious talk about trading Wilson.

And it's the same people/person behind both.

 

[um]

This is the only section of the internet where I’ve seen Washington and Marner in the same sentence. I’ve seen Vegas linked to Marner more than I’ve seen Washington. From what I’ve heard/seen from reputable sources, Marner wants to stay in Toronto and any potential trade depends on extension talks.

It’s definitely not likely, but it’s fun to talk. Besides the Caps are a discreet franchise. So you never know.

And that Carberry and Marner connection does exist, that’s more than most teams.

 

[Caps8112]

Marner already rates comparably, if not favorably to Backstrom at the same age:

View attachment 875901

View attachment 875903

Even in terms of playoff production Marner rates favorably: 2022-24 Marner has 2.19 points/60 at 5v5, Backstrom from 2015-17 has 1.87 points/60.

Yes I see the numbers. But the eye test?

 

[hb12xchamps]

It’s definitely not likely, but it’s fun to talk. Besides the Caps are a discreet franchise. So you never know.

And that Carberry and Marner connection does exist, that’s more than most teams.

I don’t think the problem is the Caps. The problem will be Marner’s camp. His dad can’t keep his mouth shut and apparently meddles quite a bit

Link? I haven’t seen anything with us in it yet

Link for what? The extension talk was on the 32 thoughts podcast. Friedman said it all hinges on the extension and the ask from Marner’s camp.

 

[Kuz]

Even in terms of playoff production Marner rates favorably: 2022-24 Marner has 2.19 points/60 at 5v5, Backstrom from 2015-17 has 1.87 points/60.

Cant really compare the low scoring years Backstrom played in with the current scoring rate. Backström was 4th in the leauge in points in the 14/15 season to 16/17 season. Marner is 11th in 21/22 to 23/24.

 

[Langway]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1795071720040128695

 

[usiel]

Lets see how dev camp goes before all these Nostradamus's.

 

[Vivaldi]

Wow. You genuinely put together a really great post, then closed it by trolling again. It's like cooking a really great meal and serving it in a dirty diaper. I was totally on board til that last sentence...

Which of those do you disagree with lol?

Mantha - picked up this year but pretty sure if he came back at half his salary half of caps fans would still be pissed off. Almost everyone loved the acquisition initially though since he was le big.

TVR - great pickup of a nonspectacular 3rd pairing defenseman when he cost 900k and was able to hold his own without being overwhelmed in between bouts of scratches. Which is about what he was paid his entire career. Once his contract runs out you let him go and find another 900k TVR (Benoit, Burroughs, Mahura, Kovacevic, Gustafsson (hey we did that one too!), etc) instead of paying him 3 million to play on your 3rd pairing without him being some kind of Schenn/Doug Murray type physical leadership or PP unicorn that has a disproportionate impact on your team.

Sandin - inferior to Gustafsson who was traded for him in addition to a 1st in a very juicy draft and Gustafsson is hardly a great NHL D, but at least he's cheap, can skate and fit well. Sandin is Ryan Ellis' scouting profile without the attributes (insane shot, insane PP vision, Josi/Ekholm as partner) that let Ryan Ellis ultimately break out and play at a top pairing level for Nashville. Small, average skater, tries to be physical at times but because he's small and slow he's ineffective at it when it comes to hitting and largely useless when trying to clear the crease. You pretty much need Adam Fox tier hockey IQ to be an impact defenseman with Sandin's physical tools and muffin point shot and his IQ is, well, not great not terrible. Had a great assist stretch last year after getting acquired but has fallen back down to earth as expected. Very much a just kind of there defenseman who is passable enough at everything to be a regular but doesn't elevate a team and has to battle his meh size and skating every shift. It will probably take you a bit longer to get tired of him like it did with 55 and 39 but unless he takes a radical stride forward (which he has much less of a reason to given his new contract), you absolutely will, so long as you have any expectations for him now that he's making almost what Orlov was on his last deal with us. Add enough overpayments like these and you can't afford the level of elite players other top end teams have. When you look at teams like Tampa or Vegas being in cap hell its generally not guys like Kucherov or Point or Stamkos or Eichel or Pietrangelo that they want to get rid of.

And this likely will remain as the only section these two can be seen in the same sentence.. cant imagine BM targeting someone with NTC and pending contract, that would require all our best current+future assets to trade for.

Again, people thinking Marner could be had for secondary pieces like the Jensens and Dowds and B-prospects are pipe dreaming. Its something along side Wilson+Leonard kind of offer to get it done and maybe even that gets outbid, likely just to see Marner block the trade or take it and walk to the free agency to test his value.

I can see us kicking the tires for Necas. Maybe Ehlers, Buchnevich. Even giving a call to Reinharts agent. But Marner isnt happening.

He's an 11 million dollar winger who has an NMC and is Toronto's designated playoff scapegoat. The market for him is very small and no one will offer up anyone like Leonard. Though I wouldn't mind trading Wilson+ for him. Unfortunately at this point Wilson is held to a different set of rules that strip him of much of his effectiveness in the playoffs. We saw it firsthand this year when the raggots were injuring a player per game and all Wilson could do was growl at them because any attempt at retaliation would be flirting with a 5 minute major followed by a 20 game suspension. Its not (entirely) his fault but it is what it is at this point. Just teams baiting him into getting penalized/suspended on routine physical plays and him being forced to sit there and not take the bait, while guys like Panarin get away with throwing dirty hits on our players let alone Rempes or Troubas. I'm not even taking him potentially breaking down halfway into his contract into account, just the simple fact that he has a bullseye from the league unlike anyone else.

But the good thing the Caps have going for them is their biggest hole is a high end two way RW, and the market just happens to be saturated with high end/top 6 RWs. Any of those would be a pretty good upgrade, however Necas is set on playing center and will command more than he's worth in terms of divisional trade assets + contract, as he's a fairly flawed 50 point player with one outlier season and, well, potential.

Ovechkin Strome X (Marner, Ehlers, Buchnevich, Tarasenko, Reinhart, Necas, DeBrusk, Schmaltz, Toffoli, Duchene, Konecny, hell could just be Leonard signing)
Milano Lapierre Wilson (no way org trades him realistically)
Protas McMichael Miroschinenko
Malenstyn Dowd Kubel/whatever

The bolded players they will definitely realistically keep, while the rest could either be trade bait for the right players (Protas, Dowd, Malenstyn) or could realistically be upgraded (Milano). I'd move McMichael or Wilson for the right player as well but I doubt the org would (McMichael that is, they're pretty much married to Wilson for better or worse).

 

[Vivaldi]

Cant really compare the low scoring years Backstrom played in with the current scoring rate. Backström was 4th in the leauge in points in the 14/15 season to 16/17 season. Marner is 11th in 21/22 to 23/24.

One of those was the year Jamie Benn won the art ross with 89 points. The offensive talent level in the league right now is flat out much higher than it was in those years with the top players having a network effect on their linemates as well. A ton of players from the 2014 and generational 2015 draft hitting their primes now. Kucherov, McDavid, Rantanen, Drasaitl, Matthews, MacKinnon, Panarin, Marner, Robertson, Aho, Miller, etc. are absolutely better players in 2024 than their comparables in those seasons were (basically Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin and Kane hovering near the end of their primes with guys like Kucherov entering theirs, while Thornton, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, all the 2003 draft guys were starting to break down and be on their way out) even if their point totals are inflated. I mean, Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin were still arguably on par with present day MacKinnon/Drasaitl/Kucherov, but after that the talent density fell off much more back then.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Saying most of us liked the Mantha and Sandin trade is a bit much.
Mantha trade was atleast 50/50 people hating and didnt like giving up 2 high picks for the same player.
Sandin trade looked good at 1st when he was getting JC74 playing time. But he looked bad this season
I dont like trading 1st rounders so I didnt like either trade

TVR I dont get the gripe. He was a good signing I just would have traded him before paying him market value on the extension. I still want him traded.

 

[StrikingDistance]

It’s definitely not likely, but it’s fun to talk. Besides the Caps are a discreet franchise. So you never know.

And that Carberry and Marner connection does exist, that’s more than most teams.

That cuts both ways. If the Caps do pursue Marner, it's because Carbs knows the scoop about him and I'm ok with that. If they avoid him like the plague, then we know the deal.

This team needs a younger Oshie2.0. Physical puck-battler, who can score. Who's free on the Panthers after this year? Those guys are relentless.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

One of those was the year Jamie Benn won the art ross with 89 points. The offensive talent level in the league right now is flat out much higher than it was in those years with the top players having a network effect on their linemates as well. A ton of players from the 2014 and generational 2015 draft hitting their primes now. Kucherov, McDavid, Rantanen, Drasaitl, Matthews, MacKinnon, Panarin, Marner, Robertson, Aho, Miller, etc. are absolutely better players in 2024 than their comparables in those seasons were (basically Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin and Kane hovering near the end of their primes with guys like Kucherov entering theirs, while Thornton, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, all the 2003 draft guys were starting to break down and be on their way out) even if their point totals are inflated.

This is another good point. The NHL game has changed over the last 10 years and is faster with less hitting and clutching and grabbing. It useto be hard to throw these young players into the pros.

 

[Vivaldi]

Saying most of us liked the Mantha and Sandin trade is a bit much.
Mantha trade was atleast 50/50 people hating and didnt like giving up 2 high picks for the same player.
Sandin trade looked good at 1st when he was getting JC74 playing time. But he looked bad this season
I dont like trading 1st rounders so I didnt like either trade

TVR I dont get the gripe. He was a good signing I just would have traded him before paying him market value on the extension. I still want him traded.

The gripe is that he was extended for 3 mil instead of traded. He was a great asset at 900k but the type you can find every year with a little work. Its not a big deal if you're a bottom team looking to take your time tanking and retooling but if you're looking to compete and already locked into big contracts you have to squeeze for value everywhere else you can since the top teams you're competing against certainly will.

 

[Vivaldi]

That cuts both ways. If the Caps do pursue Marner, it's because Carbs knows the scoop about him and I'm ok with that. If they avoid him like the plague, then we know the deal.

This team needs a younger Oshie2.0. Physical puck-battler, who can score. Who's free on the Panthers after this year? Those guys are relentless.

Reinhart is pretty much that guy, wouldn't be a bad add but he probably gets over 10 mil if he's leaving Florida.

They were good at battling this year just couldn't make plays or finish for the life of them. Even on the PP where you only need a battler and 4 guys that can execute offensive plays.

 

[Vivaldi]

Reinhart I get Cheechoo vibes. Scored 56 goals on a stacked team and was never close again.

Cheechoo was good offensively for a year before being put with Thornton and suffered debilitating knee and groin injuries and had double hernia surgery while already being an Oshie level skater to begin with. If Reinhart gets the same injuries yeah, he'll never be close again. But even Ovechkin with Cheechoo's injuries would probably be out of the league fairly quickly as well.

 

[Caps8112]

It’s naive IMO to expect a ton of big names to hit free agency next year and build your plan around that. Also, this team badly needs a talent infusion NOW. None of the young guys look like big game breakers, so sitting on your hands for another year is a poor option IMO.

Not sure I agree with aquiring fringe fa talent. Caps were mediocre forever 80s thru 90s. If it’s the end of the ovi era I’d rather endure some really bad seasons and get a couple top flight/flite (spelling) drafts in a row and hope for the best. Chicago just sucked for ten years holding onto the glory days. Rather them give up now and hope for better in 3-4 years

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Not sure I agree with aquiring fringe fa talent. Caps were mediocre forever 80s thru 90s. If it’s the end of the ovi era I’d rather endure some really bad seasons and get a couple top flight/flite (spelling) drafts in a row and hope for the best. Chicago just sucked for ten years holding onto the glory days. Rather them give up now and hope for better in 3-4 years

Caps (Leonsis) don’t want a cellar dweller, so they may tank, but it won’t be until Ovechkin is gone and won’t ever happen if they can restock the system/roster over the next 2 years decently. Tanking costs the team on many levels and you might just be stuck in that cycle for a decade unless you get fortunate with a Superstar pick or 2.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I guess the biggest luck of the Ovie era was winning the draft lottery. We had the 4th best odds.

Ted is one lottery hit away from having the Caps look alot like the Wizards. And im scared hes still trying to buy the Nats so he can sell MSN monthly streamer views in the summer.

 

[alphabetical]

One of those was the year Jamie Benn won the art ross with 89 points. The offensive talent level in the league right now is flat out much higher than it was in those years with the top players having a network effect on their linemates as well. A ton of players from the 2014 and generational 2015 draft hitting their primes now. Kucherov, McDavid, Rantanen, Drasaitl, Matthews, MacKinnon, Panarin, Marner, Robertson, Aho, Miller, etc. are absolutely better players in 2024 than their comparables in those seasons were (basically Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin and Kane hovering near the end of their primes with guys like Kucherov entering theirs, while Thornton, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, all the 2003 draft guys were starting to break down and be on their way out) even if their point totals are inflated. I mean, Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin were still arguably on par with present day MacKinnon/Drasaitl/Kucherov, but after that the talent density fell off much more back then.

It's worth noting that 15-16 was the lowest scoring year since 03-04, and rule changes on goalie equipment increased the scoring rate in following years. Goalie pants shrank and so did the chest protectors, and goals went up. That's just like how the league ended the dead puck era by shrinking leg pads.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

That cuts both ways. If the Caps do pursue Marner, it's because Carbs knows the scoop about him and I'm ok with that. If they avoid him like the plague, then we know the deal.

This team needs a younger Oshie2.0. Physical puck-battler, who can score. Who's free on the Panthers after this year? Those guys are relentless.

And for all my no-Marner-please posts, I do agree with this. They also have a line in on Marner with Dale Hunter, who I know they consulted with on CMM.