Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2023-24 Regular Season Edition

[Rayquaza64]

I guess the biggest luck of the Ovie era was winning the draft lottery. We had the 4th best odds.

Ted is one lottery hit away from having the Caps look alot like the Wizards. And im scared hes still trying to buy the Nats so he can sell MSN monthly streamer views in the summer.

to be completely fair, mostly all generational talents are landed through lotto luck at this point

 

[usiel]

It's worth noting that 15-16 was the lowest scoring year since 03-04, and rule changes on goalie equipment increased the scoring rate in following years. Goalie pants shrank and so did the chest protectors, and goals went up. That's just like how the league ended the dead puck era by shrinking leg pads.

Also I thing those equipment changes are why there are no longer smaller goalies. Compensated but just much taller/bigger goalies.

 

[Kuz]

One of those was the year Jamie Benn won the art ross with 89 points. The offensive talent level in the league right now is flat out much higher than it was in those years with the top players having a network effect on their linemates as well. A ton of players from the 2014 and generational 2015 draft hitting their primes now. Kucherov, McDavid, Rantanen, Drasaitl, Matthews, MacKinnon, Panarin, Marner, Robertson, Aho, Miller, etc. are absolutely better players in 2024 than their comparables in those seasons were (basically Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin and Kane hovering near the end of their primes with guys like Kucherov entering theirs, while Thornton, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, all the 2003 draft guys were starting to break down and be on their way out) even if their point totals are inflated. I mean, Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin were still arguably on par with present day MacKinnon/Drasaitl/Kucherov, but after that the talent density fell off much more back then.

Still doesnt account for the increase in scoring. You have the way the game is played, goalie equipment being smaller have led to worse save % aswell.

Crosby the last 3 years have 271 points in 233 games while a younger Crosby had 258 points in 232 games in the period mentioned. Crosby have held up well, but he is definetely a worse player than he was while he led Pens to 2 Stanley Cups.
Ovi 230 points in 229 games the last 3 years while he had 221 points in 242 games during that period and Ovi have become much worse since that time.

The two periods cant be compared point to point and todays talent is of course very good, but they get extra credit for the scoring increase. Like the 82 point prime Karlsson in 15/16 is way better both offensively and defensively than last years 101 point Karlsson.

 

[HTFN]

Still doesnt account for the increase in scoring. You have the way the game is played, goalie equipment being smaller have led to worse save % aswell.

Crosby the last 3 years have 271 points in 233 games while a younger Crosby had 258 points in 232 games in the period mentioned. Crosby have held up well, but he is definetely a worse player than he was while he led Pens to 2 Stanley Cups.
Ovi 230 points in 229 games the last 3 years while he had 221 points in 242 games during that period and Ovi have become much worse since that time.

The two periods cant be compared point to point and todays talent is of course very good, but they get extra credit for the scoring increase. Like the 82 point prime Karlsson in 15/16 is way better both offensively and defensively than last years 101 point Karlsson.

I mean, just off personal memory it seems like somewhere between 2014 and 2016 the league just decided to open up. It was like they saw the dead puck era creeping back in and just went with a full throttle sort of collective style. Caps and Blues were arguably the last of the big beefy "throw it" teams to win (and yes that's later, but it's sort of in the final throes of the window for that type of squad), other teams have no doubt been complete but the personality seems different.

It's obviously not a skill show out there, and the playoffs are still an animal... but the game made a comprehensive switch somewhere in the '10's to open up. If anything, the pandemic was the last straw and any emphasis on entertainment for recovery has come on the heels of opening the game up for skill.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

For all those thinking "we can't compete for a Cup without a star that is drafted high"...

Fair to say Stars are Cup competitive, and their top three scorers are...

Johnston - or 27th pick (Sandin)
Hintz - 49th pick
Robertson- 39th pick

Also Robertson had 17 goals in his first full NHL season... that was only 51 games... but I assume they are happy they didn't trade him after that year for "someone with more upside".

That's why we shouldn't rush to move CMM (18 goals in 80 games) until you really know his upside, and that should be only after another year or two at the earliest. And no I'm not saying CMM is going to be Robertson - just that we need a longer look before truly knowing his upside.

 

[Roshi]

For all those thinking "we can't compete for a Cup without a star that is drafted high"...

Fair to say Stars are Cup competitive, and their top three scorers are...

Johnston - or 27th pick (Sandin)
Hintz - 49th pick
Robertson- 39th pick

Also Robertson had 17 goals in his first full NHL season... that was only 51 games... but I assume they are happy they didn't trade him after that year for "someone with more upside".

That's why we shouldn't rush to move CMM (18 goals in 80 games) until you really know his upside, and that should be only after another year or two at the earliest. And no I'm not saying CMM is going to be Robertson - just that we need a longer look before truly knowing his upside.

Robertson exploded quickly after he was drafted. Comparing him to 23 years old McMichael is two totally different things. Robertson had more points in his 20 year old season in NHL, than CMM has in his career so far.

Still, im sure nobody wants to trade CMM just because we are unpatient, or dont like him. Its more about where he fits in the lineup going forward. Strome is still youngish and has 3 years to go and Lapierre looks like passed CMM this year.

Obviously noone is giving up on him or wanting to trade him just to make a trade, but if we are listing our trade chips with value and looking which ones are "most sacrificable" to make something really matters, McMicahel is pretty high on that list. And thats not a notch on him, its because he is actually a solid young player.

to be completely fair, mostly all generational talents are landed through lotto luck at this point

To Be Fair

 

[OV Rocks]

For all those thinking "we can't compete for a Cup without a star that is drafted high"...

Fair to say Stars are Cup competitive, and their top three scorers are...

Johnston - or 27th pick (Sandin)
Hintz - 49th pick
Robertson- 39th pick

Also Robertson had 17 goals in his first full NHL season... that was only 51 games... but I assume they are happy they didn't trade him after that year for "someone with more upside".

That's why we shouldn't rush to move CMM (18 goals in 80 games) until you really know his upside, and that should be only after another year or two at the earliest. And no I'm not saying CMM is going to be Robertson - just that we need a longer look before truly knowing his upside.

They also have Seguin who went 2nd overall - to a different team, and Heiskanen who went 3rd overall, and a first round goalie. But yeah, your narrative is a good one too.

 

[Caps8112]

Caps (Leonsis) don’t want a cellar dweller, so they may tank, but it won’t be until Ovechkin is gone and won’t ever happen if they can restock the system/roster over the next 2 years decently. Tanking costs the team on many levels and you might just be stuck in that cycle for a decade unless you get fortunate with a Superstar pick or 2.

I agree with everything you said but restocking/retooling without a real high end talent to build around usually results in 10 years of mediocrity, making/missing the playoffs and getting pasted in the first round. Look at minnesota. Leonsis can want what he wants but 20 years ago that arena was empty before Ovi. This towns fans really only supports winners. Lappy, Protas, and CMM will all be NHlers but imo they arent anything you build around. they are complimentary pieces.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

All fair points and I said I'm NOT saying CMM is going to be a 40 - 50 goal gut like Robertson. But I still contend he COULD be a 30 - 40 goal guy for a few years.

My real concern is moving one of the young guys out too soon. One more year should give us a lot more insight and then we can make better decisions on who fits where and who, if any, are actually redundant and are good hockey trade candidates.

And yes future UFA markets always look better than they end up, but new hockey trade opportunities can also develop unforseen that allow a way to get near elite or elite talant down the road too.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

They also have Seguin who went 2nd overall - to a different team, and Heiskanen who went 3rd overall, and a first round goalie. But yeah, your narrative is a good one too.

Hintz went 49th, and Benn was a 5th rounder.

Miro Heiskanen was 3d overall and he is very much key for them.

If we're going to do anything splashy this summer it might be a D. Chychrun? One of the UFAs? Improved D would really take some pressure off the young forwards and possibly allow for one or more of them further exceed expectations (faster/more reliable breakouts, not getting bogged down for minutes at a time, more jump-up help from the back end to get through the middle and make O zone entries faster). Would also help the goalies...

 

[Kalopsia]

Still doesnt account for the increase in scoring. You have the way the game is played, goalie equipment being smaller have led to worse save % aswell.

Crosby the last 3 years have 271 points in 233 games while a younger Crosby had 258 points in 232 games in the period mentioned. Crosby have held up well, but he is definetely a worse player than he was while he led Pens to 2 Stanley Cups.
Ovi 230 points in 229 games the last 3 years while he had 221 points in 242 games during that period and Ovi have become much worse since that time.

The two periods cant be compared point to point and todays talent is of course very good, but they get extra credit for the scoring increase. Like the 82 point prime Karlsson in 15/16 is way better both offensively and defensively than last years 101 point Karlsson.

This is a tangent from the main discussion point here but man, I knew goaltending had gotten worse lately, but I didn't realize just how much worse until I just looked at the numbers. It's crazy how much it's cahnged in less than a decade. The NHL's dropped from a league average of .915 in the 14-15 and 15-16 seasons to .903 this year, which is the lowest since the 05-06 season when there were about twice as many PPs per game than right now. In 15-16, out of 20 goalies with 50+ GP, 8 had a SV% of .920 or better and 16 has a .915 or better. This year there were still 20 goalies with 50+ GP, but only 1 was above .920 and 4 were above .915. I think I underappreciated Lindgren a bit this year because I didn't fully adjust my expectations for what a good goalie is nowadays.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

3 years ago, it's a different argument, but I think it's foolhardy today to trade a Connor McMichael for a false hope at another run with a guy like Marner (is this still who we're talking about?) -- the rest of the team is not equipped to make that run, particularly if you subtract some of the quality depth.

And the guy just finished his first full season of actually being given ice time. Would anyone be surprised if he developed into a Carter Verhaeghe or Joel Eriksson Ek (or Dylan Strome, for that matter) level player? Eriksson Ek feels like a pretty safe projection for CMM's eventual floor. Keep him and figure out other way's to add higher end talent

 

[bacchist]

I wouldn't mind Reinhart. Not expecting 50+ goals, but a solid 30 goals and close to a point per game is reasonable. Got a few more years in the tank to bridge the gap between this era and the next. He'll still be able to play when we're bringing Leonard and Cristall on board.

Marner would be great too, obviously. But I think we'd have to give up too much. If we could somehow do it without getting fleeced, cool.

 

[Kazer]

I mean, just off personal memory it seems like somewhere between 2014 and 2016 the league just decided to open up. It was like they saw the dead puck era creeping back in and just went with a full throttle sort of collective style. Caps and Blues were arguably the last of the big beefy "throw it" teams to win (and yes that's later, but it's sort of in the final throes of the window for that type of squad), other teams have no doubt been complete but the personality seems different.

It's obviously not a skill show out there, and the playoffs are still an animal... but the game made a comprehensive switch somewhere in the '10's to open up. If anything, the pandemic was the last straw and any emphasis on entertainment for recovery has come on the heels of opening the game up for skill.

Caps scored 3.58 goals per game during the 17-18 playoffs. The team may have been big and beefy, but they put the puck in the net too. That's a higher rate than all four teams remaining (so far).

 

[bacchist]

3 years ago, it's a different argument, but I think it's foolhardy today to trade a Connor McMichael for a false hope at another run with a guy like Marner (is this still who we're talking about?) -- the rest of the team is not equipped to make that run, particularly if you subtract some of the quality depth.

And the guy just finished his first full season of actually being given ice time. Would anyone be surprised if he developed into a Carter Verhaeghe or Joel Eriksson Ek (or Dylan Strome, for that matter) level player? Eriksson Ek feels like a pretty safe projection for CMM's eventual floor. Keep him and figure out other way's to add higher end talent

Eriksson Ek does seem like a pretty apt comparison. Maybe a stretch to say that's his floor. It's not necessarily his ceiling, but If he reaches that level I think we should be pretty happy.

I disagree with passing on Marner in favor of McMichael, though. That can't really be a thing, right? McMichael's most optimistic ceiling would be kind of a disappointing year for Marner. Marner hasn't scored less than a point a game since he was 20 years old, and prior to that his age 19 and 20 years in the NHL would be career years for McMichael if he is able to reach his full potential.

 

[Langway]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1795489628302324218

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

Leonard signing to follow?

https://x.com/i/web/status/1795489628302324218

 

[Langway]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1795501024561746196

Ryan, where are u? Where are u, Ryan?

 

[Misery74]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1795501024561746196

Ryan, where are u? Where are u, Ryan?

I feel like it’s a matter of days.

 

[kicksavedave]

I'm still trying to figure out what Groupon has to do with anything here?

 

[Brian23]

Leonard signing next year would make next year something fun to look forward too. Was basically only looking forward to seeing Miro and Iorio next year.

 

[Marshall]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1795501024561746196

Ryan, where are u? Where are u, Ryan?

He is ruining LenMas for everybody.

Sign, bruh.

 

[Caps8112]

Was just listening to the point and them talking about Kakko and how he needs a change of scenery with a retooling team for playing time. Instant fear caps management would be that stupid. Zero interest in that guy

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Im not sure how the timing works out. But lets say Leonard goes to rookie and training camp and makes the team. Can he sign with the caps after camp and if he doesnt make the team go back to his college team?

I really cant see him signing without a roster spot locked in. I dont think hes leaving school for the AHL

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Was just listening to the point and them talking about Kakko and how he needs a change of scenery with a retooling team for playing time. Instant fear caps management would be that stupid. Zero interest in that guy

Kakko I thought was a cant miss prospect. Im surprised he never figured it out. It does make the sting of the Rangers winning the lottery 2 seasons in a row lol