Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines/etc) | 2023-24 Regular Season Edition

[CapitalsCupReality]

Toronto is under a lot of pressure to make a big change so yeah, I think they are going to get fleeced if they make a Marner trade.

I doubt Toronto would want a futures package when their window is now, that's why I think the match is so good from Washington's perspective since they really shouldn't be trading picks/prospects for anyone over 25 years old. Washington does of course however have one particularly valuable trade piece that they should be looking to move that Toronto is probably interested in.

They could easily make this a multi transaction retool, trade Marner for futures then use the cap space (and acquired assets) to acquire better vets than we have to offer….

Any combo of Jensen, TVR, Dowd aren’t putting them over the top….I think we can stop pretending that they will believe THAT is anything like the package that they must add…

Tom Wilson just handcuffs them IMO….had he just come off a fantastic season…..maybe, but he didn’t.

 

[pman25]

Marner is a lot more attractive than signing say… two JT Comphers. Get Marner. Maybe Reinhart. If you don’t, I’d rather save the cap space and just play an Ethen Frank or Andrew Cristall or whoever.

 

[Caps8112]

Don’t understand the marner talk. Unless you think he can turn into Backstrom we’ve see what he can do in the playoffs unless this is just for the record. Also doubt Toronto wants much of anything the caps have

 

[twabby]

Don’t understand the marner talk. Unless you think he can turn into Backstrom we’ve see what he can do in the playoffs unless this is just for the record. Also doubt Toronto wants much of anything the caps have

Marner already rates comparably, if not favorably to Backstrom at the same age:

Even in terms of playoff production Marner rates favorably: 2022-24 Marner has 2.19 points/60 at 5v5, Backstrom from 2015-17 has 1.87 points/60.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

On a flight out of Dublin yesterday via Aer Lingus to Dulles, shared a flight with some folks you may recognize.

Obviously Backstrom and Carlson, anyone know or recognize the third guy. Assume that they were on a golfing trip. Understandably Backstrom and Carlson traveled in first class/business, while the third unidentified guy traveled with us peasants and was actually in the last row just before the lavatories. At Dulles saw Backstrom and Carlson wait for this guy but it was just Backstrom and Carlson at the baggage carousel so I figure the other guy had a connecting flight. Backstrom and Carlson had one bag each, no clubs so if they had been golfing they may have shipped them back to the states via DHL or Fed Ex. Suppose you can do that when your making their money.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Twabby, with all due respect, it sounds like you are espousing the only window for a splash additional is NOW. Waiting a year allows us to better see which of CMM/Protas/Lappy might further exceed expectations. I contend smart additions on D this off season will boost our offense indirectly (faster breakouts, not getting bogged down as much, goalies more confident in the D in front of them and facing less burden,etc.), and give these three an additional opportunity move up another level. And remember well have cost certainty going this route.

Waiting also allows us to have better insight what Miro, Leonard, and Cristall/Funk's paths look like. I believe we have more already in the organization than many others think, and we should give them a fair chance first.

Next summer Draisaitl, Vehaeghe, Sharangovich, and Konecny are all under 30 LW UFAs, who scored over 30 goals this past season. Add in Rantanen and Bossier as under 30 years old RW UFAs who had over 30. And Vatrano will be 31 (scored 37 this year). Lots of options for F FA additions with comparable output to Marner's 26 goals (in 69 games) with the Caps holding lots of cap space if we are patient.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It’s naive IMO to expect a ton of big names to hit free agency next year and build your plan around that. Also, this team badly needs a talent infusion NOW. None of the young guys look like big game breakers, so sitting on your hands for another year is a poor option IMO.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

It may also be naive to think Marner would waive to come here.

It comes down to whether the team internally believes aa strongly in our prospects aa I do.

I also think it's GMBMs nature to find solutions none of us have thought of and discussed here (particularly around trades for players they think have a lot of untapped upside). So time will tell I suppose.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It may also be naive to think Marner would waive to come here.

It comes down to whether the team internally believes aa strongly in our prospects aa I do.

I also think it's GMBMs nature to find solutions none of us have thought of and discussed here (particularly around trades for players they think have a lot of untapped upside). So time will tell I suppose.

Agreed…..but a place like DC with seemingly little pressure unlike Toronto…..could be a fit……never know….

My position on Marner…..I’d take him, but I’m not clamoring for him.

 

[um]

It’s naive IMO to expect a ton of big names to hit free agency next year and build your plan around that. Also, this team badly needs a talent infusion NOW. None of the young guys look like big game breakers, so sitting on your hands for another year is a poor option IMO.

Yep. Free agency classes always look great 2 years out.

 

[g00n]

Are the guys who say players turn into pumpkins at 30 actually looking at another huge contract through 35 or longer?

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

Yep. Free agency classes always look great 2 years out.

Note I was only trying to point out that the 'get Marner' crowd sound like he is the ONLY high quality Free Agent option we will ever have.

I'm pointing out that urgency for NOW isn't real, especially when next year seems to currrently offer more potential options than any other for the next FOUR years. Admittedly I haven't analyzed which of the longish list I mentioned for 2025-2026 are from teams that will be too strapped to sign them, or which teams might be able to complete for them... BUT it is a fact that the most names of LW/RW under 30 at UFA with over 30 goals this past season is currently more for 2025-2026 (6) than 2026-2027 (2), or for 2027-2028 (0). This year only Guentzel and Reinhardt meet those criteria.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

I also lean against going after the big name, big dollar UFA who will be soon in decline and thus an Albatross. I'm more inclined to be patient and then once we know the true potential for all the promising young forwards THEN use smart UFA signings (cost and contract length) to fill any remaining gaps.

 

[Ridley Simon]

On a flight out of Dublin yesterday via Aer Lingus to Dulles, shared a flight with some folks you may recognize.

Obviously Backstrom and Carlson, anyone know or recognize the third guy. Assume that they were on a golfing trip. Understandably Backstrom and Carlson traveled in first class/business, while the third unidentified guy traveled with us peasants and was actually in the last row just before the lavatories. At Dulles saw Backstrom and Carlson wait for this guy but it was just Backstrom and Carlson at the baggage carousel so I figure the other guy had a connecting flight. Backstrom and Carlson had one bag each, no clubs so if they had been golfing they may have shipped them back to the states via DHL or Fed Ex. Suppose you can do that when your making their money.

Does JC74 have a brother? That 3rd guy looks a lot like him, IMO

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Glad Nicks hip is good enough for the golf game. Now please dont think about NHL hockey again

 

[traparatus]

Note I was only trying to point out that the 'get Marner' crowd sound like he is the ONLY high quality Free Agent option we will ever have.

I'm pointing out that urgency for NOW isn't real, especially when next year seems to currrently offer more potential options than any other for the next FOUR years. Admittedly I haven't analyzed which of the longish list I mentioned for 2025-2026 are from teams that will be too strapped to sign them, or which teams might be able to complete for them... BUT it is a fact that the most names of LW/RW under 30 at UFA with over 30 goals this past season is currently more for 2025-2026 (6) than 2026-2027 (2), or for 2027-2028 (0). This year only Guentzel and Reinhardt meet those criteria.

I think you are highly overstating the frequency with which players of Marner's caliber become available. It is exceedingly rare. You are listing future potential free agents who haven't even been eligible to sign a new contract. Of course there will be more names there.

I don't have a strong opinion on trading for Marner one way or another but he is an elite playmaking talent and players like him are not available very often. If Toronto wants to take Wilson, a pick and some other depth player for him AND Marner is willing to sign a reasonable extension, I wouldn't hesitate to do it. Not sure how realistic that is.

One thing is certain for me. Until Ovechkin gets his record, this team will be treading water in mid table purgatory. Marner would help with that.

 

[Vivaldi]

Holy shit. Look at that list. Kuzy, Oshie, Patches.

No thanks to Marner. Whoever signs him at $10m per year, for the next 7-8 years will enter cap hell. We are escaping cap hell.

We need to shop in the bargain bin for 1 more year. Next year should also be all about the kids.

How would that lead to cap hell? Compared to what the cap will be vs what it was that's basically what Backstrom was making on his bargain contract through his mega steal of a contract.

Marner has averaged 100 point pace for the last 6 years. 4 of those years he put up 85, 94, 99, 97 point seasons. You won't find anyone more consistent who's not in the McDavid, MacKinnon, Kucherov tier. He is gonna be in his prime or close to it for most of his next contract and has a game that ages as well as it can for a forward. He is very good defensively for a winger, better than anyone we have. Can even throw him out on first unit PK since throwing out 8 figure players to eat point shots until they get fractures everywhere is the gud gritty way 2 play. His playoff record is actually pretty good and would be seen in a different light if they didn't go with the Mike Green & Company defense building approach when going for playoff wins and won a few rounds.

There's really no one else that's close, unless you take Reinhart's outlier peak in his UFA season on an insanely stacked gelling team as a good comparable to Marner's normal seasons.

You get into cap hell by stockpiling guys a dozen guys like Sandin Mantha and TVR and paying them 2x what they're worth not by paying for superstars lol.

 

[Vivaldi]

Then by that logic so did the whole organization….including Ovechkin, etc…..

I don’t agree. This is too hard to win by just being lucky….

If you say that its impossible to luck into a cup by default and no team in the history of the NHL lucked into a cup, then yeah, Caps won a cup, its impossible to luck into a cup, ergo Caps/Trotz/Ovechkin/BMac/Jerabek did not luck into a cup. Just pure logic

If it is possible to luck into a cup to a large extent, you have

-Caps losing the most depth in the Ovechkin era in the 2017 offseason with the Vegas expansion and cap crunch. Johansson/Williams/Winnik/Alzner/Schmidt/Shattenkirk let go and effectively replaced by dumpster dives/graduating B level prospects
-Coming within one game of firing Trotz mid season several times
-Adding just Kempny and Jerabek at the deadline vs all the other years. Kempny looked like he was on his way to go home over overseas, and other than the following 3 months has never amounted to anything at all in the NHL any other year
- Going down 2-0 to Columbus, being an OT post away from 3-0
- Getting past the Penguins who historically slapped them even when the Caps were the better team (like in 2017) despite the Wilson suspension
- upsetting the heavily favored Lightning despite them adding McDonagh and Miller at the deadline
- Holtby's iconic save on Tuch
- DSP, Djoos, Chiasson, Beagle, Connolly, Kempny, Holtby all playing their lives off and never again after that on this team or any other. Half of them effectively washing out of the league shortly after.

Compare their runs with teams like Pittsburgh, Tampa, Colorado, Chicago, who had their fair share of breaks on the way to their cups but not nearly to the same extent. Caps run was much more similar to the blues.

No one in the fandom, management, organization, team, or outside thought of them as cup contenders that year. When they were down 2-0 to Columbus absolutely no Caps fans were gutted as they were past years when the Caps were struggling, it was completely expected in 2018. Everyone was in turn-the-chapter-on-trotz.exe mode. Ovechkins "hopefully we not f***ing suck this year" was pretty much seen as the optimistic expectation by everyone. At the same time, they were able to win a playoff round and be very competitive in every second round of the seasons they were under Trotz, and had they kept him they would have expectedly been much closer to "lucking into" another deep run again.

For some reason people think them being lucky that one year is an attack o the franchise/validity of the cup, when all it does is explain why they never won a single round after let alone come close to repeating. And if one single cup and one single run past the 2nd round in what will be 20 years of the greatest goal scorer and top 3 player of his era with the support he has is great success with flawless management, well that's all good then. But I imagine a lot of people will look if we spend the next 15 years derping around with the kind of players the Caps have been bringing in for the past 10 without a prime Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov and Carlson raising the roof.

Trotz didn't luck into a Cup. But he also didn't singe-handedly deliver one, though he behaved after the fact as if he had.

It was a team effort. The guys in the front office, the guys behind the bench, and the guys on the ice all pulled together to make that happen. Because that's what it takes.

And all the critiques of GMBM regularly ignore how Trotz f***ed him over after the Cup run. He had a contract, a raise, and roster ready to repeat. And he threw it all back in their faces because his ego was bruised. And look what happened... neither he nor the organization was able to make another successful run absent the collective dynamic that they had built together.

The idea that ruthless Trotz f***ed over poor little billionaire Groupon CEO & Monumental Sports and Entertainment president Ted Leonsis by negotiating for a couple extra million to be paid in line with what coaches of his caliber were making, following a cup win... I just can't, its too funny. For reference, this is what poor little billionaire Groupon CEO & Monumental Sports and Entertainment president Ted Leonsis, who made all of his money giving away onesies to orphanages and never ever did anything shady or negotiated in any fashion resembling Trotz's, said after spitting on lifelong Caps fans trying to ratf*** DC for a year with the Potomac Yards move blackmail.

“I look at outcomes, not process, and we got to the right outcome,” Leonsis said in a statement. “I know this was a difficult process and I want people to understand how much I love Washington D.C. and how much I’ve always loved Washington D.C. Mayor Bowser and her team heard us and worked with us and gave us the tools for us to meet the needs of our business to expand right here in downtown.”

But I guess "outcomes not process" is only allowed for Saintly Groupon CEO & Monumental Sports and Entertainment president billionaires, not evil coaches looking to get a raise that would be covered by a fraction of what MSE jacked their concessions and season tickets by following their cup win, and would actually have brought substantially more money to the Caps in the form of likely extra playoff rounds won since 2018.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If you say that its impossible to luck into a cup by default and no team in the history of the NHL lucked into a cup, then yeah, Caps won a cup, its impossible to luck into a cup, ergo Caps/Trotz/Ovechkin/BMac/Jerabek did not luck into a cup. Just pure logic

If it is possible to luck into a cup to a large extent, you have

-Caps losing the most depth in the Ovechkin era in the 2017 offseason with the Vegas expansion and cap crunch. Johansson/Williams/Winnik/Alzner/Schmidt/Shattenkirk let go and effectively replaced by dumpster dives/graduating B level prospects
-Coming within one game of firing Trotz mid season several times
-Adding just Kempny and Jerabek at the deadline vs all the other years. Kempny looked like he was on his way to go home over overseas, and other than the following 3 months has never amounted to anything at all in the NHL any other year
- Going down 2-0 to Columbus, being an OT post away from 3-0
- Getting past the Penguins who historically slapped them even when the Caps were the better team (like in 2017) despite the Wilson suspension
- upsetting the heavily favored Lightning despite them adding McDonagh and Miller at the deadline
- Holtby's iconic save on Tuch
- DSP, Djoos, Chiasson, Beagle, Connolly, Kempny, Holtby all playing their lives off and never again after that on this team or any other. Half of them effectively washing out of the league shortly after.

Compare their runs with teams like Pittsburgh, Tampa, Colorado, Chicago, who had their fair share of breaks on the way to their cups but not nearly to the same extent. Caps run was much more similar to the blues.

No one in the fandom, management, organization, team, or outside thought of them as cup contenders that year. When they were down 2-0 to Columbus absolutely no Caps fans were gutted as they were past years when the Caps were struggling, it was completely expected in 2018. Everyone was in turn-the-chapter-on-trotz.exe mode. Ovechkins "hopefully we not f***ing suck this year" was pretty much seen as the optimistic expectation by everyone. At the same time, they were able to win a playoff round and be very competitive in every second round of the seasons they were under Trotz, and had they kept him they would have expectedly been much closer to "lucking into" another deep run again.

For some reason people think them being lucky that one year is an attack o the franchise/validity of the cup, when all it does is explain why they never won a single round after let alone come close to repeating. And if one single cup and one single run past the 2nd round in what will be 20 years of the greatest goal scorer and top 3 player of his era with the support he has is great success with flawless management, well that's all good then. But I imagine a lot of people will look if we spend the next 15 years derping around with the kind of players the Caps have been bringing in for the past 10 without a prime Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov and Carlson raising the roof.

“Cup contender” is a bs term anyways. I feel like we have a fighting chance any series, every year we are in the postseason.

I’ve seen enough Cup runs since about 85. I’m pretty sure one could do a similar analysis of any Cup winning run and you would see your fair share of good bounces, great plays, players playing over their heads, fortunate matchups, higher seeds getting upset early, fortunate good health, players stepping in and shining as injury replacements, ups and downs through the seasons, etc…

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

If you think we wasted Ovies peak years don't look at McDavid. Or Mr. 69 goals Matthews

I do agree with alot what you said about greedy Ted. Atleast he does spend to the cap pretty much every year of the Ovie era.

 

[traparatus]

How would that lead to cap hell? Compared to what the cap will be vs what it was that's basically what Backstrom was making on his bargain contract through his mega steal of a contract.

Marner has averaged 100 point pace for the last 6 years. 4 of those years he put up 85, 94, 99, 97 point seasons. You won't find anyone more consistent who's not in the McDavid, MacKinnon, Kucherov tier. He is gonna be in his prime or close to it for most of his next contract and has a game that ages as well as it can for a forward. He is very good defensively for a winger, better than anyone we have. Can even throw him out on first unit PK since throwing out 8 figure players to eat point shots until they get fractures everywhere is the gud gritty way 2 play. His playoff record is actually pretty good and would be seen in a different light if they didn't go with the Mike Green & Company defense building approach when going for playoff wins and won a few rounds.

There's really no one else that's close, unless you take Reinhart's outlier peak in his UFA season on an insanely stacked gelling team as a good comparable to Marner's normal seasons.

You get into cap hell by stockpiling guys a dozen guys like Sandin Mantha and TVR and paying them 2x what they're worth not by paying for superstars lol.

I agree regarding Marner. A lot of stuff said about him was said verbatim about Ovechkin, Eichel, etc.

My biggest concern is whether it's enough. Does adding Marner and subtracting whatever it would take to trade for him move this team into contention? There is that unpleasant possibility that all it does is firmly entrench us in the 8th-10th spot. That would be my reservation against attempting a move like this.

If you gonna do it, you can't stop there. Have to go all out and within a couple of seasons add a top-6 center, 2 high end scoring wingers, at least 1 top-pair defenseman. A piece or two might come from the system, the rest would need to be from free agency. That's a tall task and it makes me wonder if it's not best to just sit tight and wait for Ovechkin to get the record.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

The Marner trade talks is starting to remind me of the Jagr trade. We got him for pretty cheap if i remember like 3 mid prospects, Ted gave him a massive contract extension before his 1st practice. Jagr was also a pass 1st winger at that point. And both have lots of red flags to lead them on the trade block.

 

[Rayquaza64]

Marner is a lot more attractive than signing say… two JT Comphers. Get Marner. Maybe Reinhart. If you don’t, I’d rather save the cap space and just play an Ethen Frank or Andrew Cristall or whoever.

i don’t think the caps are going to go all in for that big guy but i much agree id rather an upside guy than a “bounce back vet”

 

[Misery74]

How would that lead to cap hell? Compared to what the cap will be vs what it was that's basically what Backstrom was making on his bargain contract through his mega steal of a contract.

Marner has averaged 100 point pace for the last 6 years. 4 of those years he put up 85, 94, 99, 97 point seasons. You won't find anyone more consistent who's not in the McDavid, MacKinnon, Kucherov tier. He is gonna be in his prime or close to it for most of his next contract and has a game that ages as well as it can for a forward. He is very good defensively for a winger, better than anyone we have. Can even throw him out on first unit PK since throwing out 8 figure players to eat point shots until they get fractures everywhere is the gud gritty way 2 play. His playoff record is actually pretty good and would be seen in a different light if they didn't go with the Mike Green & Company defense building approach when going for playoff wins and won a few rounds.

There's really no one else that's close, unless you take Reinhart's outlier peak in his UFA season on an insanely stacked gelling team as a good comparable to Marner's normal seasons.

You get into cap hell by stockpiling guys a dozen guys like Sandin Mantha and TVR and paying them 2x what they're worth not by paying for superstars lol.

Marner is also on a stacked offensive team, and costs assets to acquire. Also, entering his UFA year.

Reinhart costs only money.

I don’t think we should acquire either, but given the choice, I’ll take Reinhart.

Pretty good UFA class next year too:

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

With Leonard going back to BC, i think shedding salary and small moves make more sense.

 

[Calicaps]

The idea that ruthless Trotz f***ed over poor little billionaire Groupon CEO & Monumental Sports and Entertainment president Ted Leonsis by negotiating for a couple extra million to be paid in line with what coaches of his caliber were making, following a cup win... I just can't, its too funny. For reference, this is what poor little billionaire Groupon CEO & Monumental Sports and Entertainment president Ted Leonsis, who made all of his money giving away onesies to orphanages and never ever did anything shady or negotiated in any fashion resembling Trotz's, said after spitting on lifelong Caps fans trying to ratf*** DC for a year with the Potomac Yards move blackmail.

I said nothing about Ted. Reading is fundamental.