Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[twabby]

Moneypuck has Washington at a 47% chance of making the playoffs with a regulation win tonight. A loss in regulation drops them to 31%.

 

[g00n]

Im pretty sure we won't be making the playoffs, and there is absolutely nothing pointing towards anything greater than a first round exit.

Based on what? Fan feelings?

Why do you need a guarantee of anything? This is professional sports. You try to make the playoffs and take it from there.

Not sure what year this was done but it doesn't change the point since 8 teams always get in. 7th or 8th seed still has a 15% chance of making the Finals.

You may see that as 85% chance of failure. It all depends on how you look at it. If you're the #1 seed and you know the above, do you say "well we have a 74% chance of NOT making the Finals, let's blow it up"?

No way.

The big obstacle I see is that Washington hasn’t been able to score the past 4 postseasons, and their offense is even more anemic this year than the prior 4 regular seasons. Boston is by far the best defensive team in the NHL. Carolina is also very good defensively.

Given that, where will the goals come from in a hypothetical first round series? It’s difficult to imagine this postseason going any different than recent ones.

I'm going to say "the players are going to have to score more goals than in previous years" is the answer to that question.

Do you think this is impossible?

 

[Peeri]

Their playoff chances have gone from almost 70% not that long ago to already to sub 40%. It's not looking great and I have very hard time seeing them improve seeing that they still lack the top end scoring talent, even with Alex in the lineup, without him there it's just a void.

 

[Misery74]

Honestly, Mikhail's death (RIP) and Ovi's associated departure is just the final straw for this cursed season. I almost wish December hadn't happened so there'd be absolutely no doubt. And I'm only upset about it because Ovi is losing things that matter to him. His father first and foremost, but also progress toward life goals.

IMO Lavi has done pretty damn well during his tenure here, given Covid, the injuries, etc. I'm much more interested in replacing some of his subordinates, especially Fosythe and Murray, though if Lavi goes I won't be deeply bothered--assuming they hire well.

Every UFA not named Orlov (and maybe Jensen?) should be for sale starting now. I'd consider keeping Gus too depending on price. Add in Kuz and Mantha (and maybe Oshie ) and that's a lot of salary going out. Get what you can in trade. Get better draft position. Then make hay in the summer.

This should not be a firesale for picks and prospects with the goal of developing a new young core, but rather for cap space and assets to go shopping with later for younger, but established, players.

Those wanting 19 gone can forget it. Ted won't do it. He's made clear that he wants Ovi and Backstrom both to retire as Caps, and that's his right. I personally think Nick can still be valuable to the team. He said recently that he's still working on getting his timing back--and his passing is still great--so if he finds his groove, who knows? He's just under .5ppg this season as it is. An offseason to train rather than rehab should help. Will he ever truly "earn" his paycheck? Probably no. But we all knew his salary was backdated anyway.

Wilson is just an unknowable at this point. Can he find his game? Hopefully he'll heal up in the next few weeks and have a full offseason to train and come back more like himself. But really, it's all TBD, and he can't (and shouldn't) be traded until we know more.

Same with 74 to some extent. His injury isn't directly performance-related, but he's obviously not recovered yet and who knows what's really going on. That said, a long break and time to strengthen and reset could be just what he needs to better handle the grind going forward.

And lastly, Ovechkin. I'm convinced the situation with his father has been dragging him down these past few weeks. Let him grieve without the pressure of a playoff race. Start fresh next year in pursuit of 895 and a second championship.

I guess I am just curious what makes you say Lavi has done well?

He’s never come close to winning a playoff series. No young player has emerged here. The ones that have, were banished, and are playing well for other teams. And now, we can’t score and are barely hanging on.

Every coach has dealt with Covid. Every team has injuries.

There is no evidence that Laviolette has done well.

 

[g00n]

I guess I am just curious what makes you say Lavi has done well?

He’s never come close to winning a playoff series. No young player has emerged here. The ones that have, were banished, and are playing well for other teams. And now, we can’t score and are barely hanging on.

Every coach has dealt with Covid. Every team has injuries.

There is no evidence that Laviolette has done well.

Hard to see but Caps are on the far left. This also shows the cap hit of the injured players.

2022/23 team injury breakdowns

Notes Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP) represents the per-game cap charge of a player missing a game through injury/...

nhlinjuryviz.blogspot.com

That's through Feb 1. It could be worse by now.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Doom and gloom!

I want whatever you’re drinking. If this scenario doesn’t call for doom and gloom…I’m not sure what does.

 

[Misery74]

View attachment 651184

Hard to see but Caps are on the far left. This also shows the cap hit of the injured players.

2022/23 team injury breakdowns

Notes Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP) represents the per-game cap charge of a player missing a game through injury/...

nhlinjuryviz.blogspot.com

That's through Feb 1. It could be worse by now.

So, this tells me we’ve had a lot of injuries, which I agree with. But it still doesn’t point to Laviolette doing “pretty darn well”.

A coaches primary job is to win. This guy has won exactly two things since he has been here, jack and shit.

It was also suggested his assistants should be fired, and he can stay, which also seems odd.

We are clearly a team in transition, so we have two choices, try and make the playoffs, or burn it down. I’m ready to burn it down. Just missing the playoffs is the worst possible option.

Let’s give Nelson a shot and see if we get a standings bounce. He also gets to audition for the job.

 

[Langway]

They're not going to fire Lavi. Rather they're going to circle the wagons until the wheels are clear off. And then whip the horses for a while longer for good measure.

They need to add if they want to make it. But needing to add just to make it calls into question if it's worth it. Is there more value ultimately in shutting down Carlson/Oshie/Wilson, adding some picks and getting to work on what's obviously a need to restructure?

The issue with Lavi mostly is there's no building toward the future happening with him. Bigger picture if they want to shift gears at all they're going to need a different style approach.

 

[Jags]

They're not going to fire Lavi. Rather they're going to circle the wagons until the wheels are clear off. And then whip the horses for a while longer for good measure.

Well that's good news. We *love* whipping dead horses around here.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I want whatever you’re drinking. If this scenario doesn’t call for doom and gloom…I’m not sure what does.

Not my personality to sit and stew over things I can’t control. When they’re eliminated from the playoff chase, I’ll be bummed….until then, I refuse to stew in misery.

 

[Brian23]

McIlrath getting a sweater before AA...?

 

[Misery74]

McIlrath getting a sweater before AA...?

McIlrath is 30. That makes him much better than AA. Please try and pay attention.

 

[Langway]

Extremely promising that they brought up and will play the least skilled player possible under the circumstances.

When a problem comes along
You must whip it

 

[twabby]

I'm going to say "the players are going to have to score more goals than in previous years" is the answer to that question.

Do you think this is impossible?

I think it's highly improbable given the evidence we've seen so far this season.

At least in 2017-18 you could point to the star players playing well and carrying the team:

But now their star players have been their worst players, and I don't see that changing any time soon. I don't have faith that Oshie and Backstrom are going to return to anywhere near where they were. Injuries have severely affected their ability to impact the game at 5v5. Kuznetsov has been a shell of himself. Ovechkin, bless him, just isn't as good as he used to be.

I can buy Wilson having an impact if he's able to return soon and regain his timing (again). Maybe Kuznetsov catches fire for a 2 month period again, but it doesn't seem likely. Maybe Carlson can return and finally have a good postseason with fresh legs. Maybe Kuemper can dominate a series or two. But they pretty much need all of those things to happen in order for them to have a chance at a deep run and it's a very, very unlikely parlay to hit.

If there wasn't an alternative that made sense (in this case selling at the TDL in an attempt to use some of those assets to retool this offseason) then sure just let it ride with the guys you have. But with how they've positioned themselves with several potentially valuable rentals selling has to be MacLellan's #1 option now. Letting most of their UFAs go for nothing and losing in the first round (or missing entirely) would be a disaster.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

McIlrath getting a sweater before AA...?

I like the lines and think these are probably the best they can do with what they have at the moment but I think I’d rather they switch Johansson and Mantha because Milano and Backstrom really need a shooter to ride shotgun with them.

McIlrath, well, hopefully he gets in a fight early and gets a misconduct and then does it again after he’s released from the box.

 

[g00n]

I think it's highly improbable given the evidence we've seen so far this season.

At least in 2017-18 you could point to the star players playing well and carrying the team:

View attachment 651211

But now their star players have been their worst players, and I don't see that changing any time soon. I don't have faith that Oshie and Backstrom are going to return to anywhere near where they were. Injuries have severely affected their ability to impact the game at 5v5. Kuznetsov has been a shell of himself. Ovechkin, bless him, just isn't as good as he used to be.

I can buy Wilson having an impact if he's able to return soon and regain his timing (again). Maybe Kuznetsov catches fire for a 2 month period again, but it doesn't seem likely. Maybe Carlson can return and finally have a good postseason with fresh legs. Maybe Kuemper can dominate a series or two. But they pretty much need all of those things to happen in order for them to have a chance at a deep run and it's a very, very unlikely parlay to hit.

If there wasn't an alternative that made sense (in this case selling at the TDL in an attempt to use some of those assets to retool this offseason) then sure just let it ride with the guys you have. But with how they've positioned themselves with several potentially valuable rentals selling has to be MacLellan's #1 option now. Letting most of their UFAs go for nothing and losing in the first round (or missing entirely) would be a disaster.

Playoffs is always a lot of "maybe" and "what ifs". Nothing new.

 

[Brian23]

Bruh what. A team fighting for a playoff spot is rewarding dudes with playing time...?

 

[g00n]

Bruh what. A team fighting for a playoff spot is rewarding dudes with playing time...?

What if it were CMM instead of this guy?

"Development"?

 

[Brian23]

What if it were CMM instead of this guy?

"Development"?

Well, one's a 22 year old first round pick doing very well in Hershey after having a solid/good first year the prior year. The other is a defender who's had over a decade of opportunities, bounced around to a variety of teams, and has always been an AHL/minor league player. You're being intentionally obtuse if you're trying to compare them.

Beyond that, if Mcllrath had been on the team the entire year over Irwin, I wouldn't have cared anymore then I care about Irwin constantly getting games. It's just extremely stupid when you've got an actual prospect on the roster who could use game time and you're in the hunt of a playoff race. Rewarding someone at that point is something the teams who're cruising to the playoffs do. It's a joke.

 

[twabby]

Playoffs is always a lot of "maybe" and "what ifs". Nothing new.

Some maybes and what-ifs are much more likely than others. I’m of the opinion that the wise play is to sacrifice the minuscule chance they make a run this year so that they can increase their chances for the following years.

Bruh what. A team fighting for a playoff spot is rewarding dudes with playing time...?

Where’s the upside in this play?

I don’t like it!

 

[Calicaps]

I guess I am just curious what makes you say Lavi has done well?

He’s never come close to winning a playoff series. No young player has emerged here. The ones that have, were banished, and are playing well for other teams. And now, we can’t score and are barely hanging on.

Every coach has dealt with Covid. Every team has injuries.

There is no evidence that Laviolette has done well.

Caps' injury situation is worse than most. Add in that Covid happened his first year--so no camp, no fans, and the world sorta ending--and he's had a tough row to hoe. Yet he's still made the playoffs every year so far. That's actually an accomplishment that matters.

 

[Misery74]

Caps' injury situation is worse than most. Add in that Covid happened his first year--so no camp, no fans, and the world sorta ending--and he's had a tough row to hoe. Yet he's still made the playoffs every year so far. That's actually an accomplishment that matters.

Last year, the East had 8 good teams, and 8 bad teams. We got the last spot. Not sure how much credit he deserves for last year.

Yes, our injuries are bad this year, but we got worse when some guys f the healthy guys came back.

 

[Langway]

Letting most of their UFAs go for nothing and losing in the first round (or missing entirely) would be a disaster.

Buying and still missing would be the disaster. The impact from doing nothing wouldn't be felt immediately much at all. It's more the subtle cumulative effect that piles up over time and they seem unable to get out in front of at all. Even their half-measures toward getting younger in Strome/Milano seem more token and convenient than highly selective. They need better skaters and stronger work rates in general regardless of age to earn the needed boost.

This is probably the best instance where they need to take a step back and calculate what's best going forward. Have they already gone as far as they're prepared to go in talks with Orlov/Jensen and other UFAs they'd like to keep? How much flexibility are they working with? They've got to be operating with a longer-term plan than just this particular playoff race. Mostly they need a plan for how to add impact talent. Is this year's draft, even in the 12-15 range, the best way? Does selling off help strengthen their hand for trading up in the draft to land impact? Are they prepared to wait for it?

The main structural issue at the moment is that it will be tough to even bring back as strong a team next season without restructuring. They can move Mantha but he's at least an X factor and someone that does some positive things even when not finishing (even if maddening). They're bound to lose at least a few cheaper UFAs among TVR, Gus, Hathaway, Sheary and Johansson (if not a heavier lifter like Orlov/Jensen). They can try to fish around UFA for stopgaps but even if they've done pretty well in that area they're not adding gems. And gems are what they need most, particularly when they're batting something like 2 for 8 in their bigger ticket contracts.

Given the trend lines it's just a matter of time before they're forced to course correct. And just a matter of how bad it's going to get before then.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

///

Not sure what year this was done but it doesn't change the point since 8 teams always get in. 7th or 8th seed still has a 15% chance of making the Finals.

You may see that as 85% chance of failure. It all depends on how you look at it. If you're the #1 seed and you know the above, do you say "well we have a 74% chance of NOT making the Finals, let's blow it up"?

No way.

///

The 15% chance you refer to includes both the 7th & 8th place finishers. Wherever the Caps finish, they cannot be both 7th and 8th. In theory then either team has half of 15 percent, or 7.5 percent chance of making the finals. A little better than a one-in-fourteen chance. Not impossible, but most would describe those odds as slim. And that's just for getting to the Finals.

Let's see how the team does tonight. FLA has been erratic and the Caps have shown that, on occasion, they can play a dominating style.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Well, one's a 22 year old first round pick doing very well in Hershey after having a solid/good first year the prior year. The other is a defender who's had over a decade of opportunities, bounced around to a variety of teams, and has always been an AHL/minor league player. You're being intentionally obtuse if you're trying to compare them.

Beyond that, if Mcllrath had been on the team the entire year over Irwin, I wouldn't have cared anymore then I care about Irwin constantly getting games. It's just extremely stupid when you've got an actual prospect on the roster who could use game time and you're in the hunt of a playoff race. Rewarding someone at that point is something the teams who're cruising to the playoffs do. It's a joke.

Well at least it’s a harmless joke. He’s literally the last man in the active lineup and will likely (hopefully) have zero impact lol…..