Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[CapitalsCupReality]

Fair enough, but what gets me about this argument is what is it exactly that you think Eller is delivering? He's playing fine, but I don't think there'd be much of a falloff at all if someone else stepped in for him. It's not that I think Protas or McMichael are 100% locks to be great replacements at that spot, but it's not like they'd be replacing a guy that's having a ton of impact these days.

Even if we do get fractionally worse as a result, it's a no-brainer move to save space IF we need to AND think that Backstrom can hack it. I don't think it'd be much of a decline (if any) at the things Eller is good at, and the other things might yield a net positive. And if we're talking about Eller being odd man out when Nick returns, then we'd only need one of the kids to step up if someone gets hurt.

I really don't get the reluctance over something that's absolutely happening in a few months regardless...

As it stands, he’s a better option. We all know the player. He is what he is. Whatever happens with Backstrom could change everything of course.

My reluctance is to weaken the team further when trying to qualify for the playoffs. Why can’t we seek an actual upgrade instead of seeking to downgrade the roster?

 

[DWGie26]

As it stands, he’s a better option. We all know the player. He is what he is. Whatever happens with Backstrom could change everything of course.

My reluctance is to weaken the team further when trying to qualify for the playoffs. Why can’t we seek an actual upgrade instead of seeking to downgrade the roster?

I don’t see us doing any significant adds or subtracts. That‘s not where we are at in our lifecycle. Not going to sell-off and rebuild. Not going to add significantly and give up assets to make a major move.

Eller and Mojo aren’t “sexy” but both are sneaky good vets. We have deployed reasonable youth and more transition coming in the offseason and not a hard leap to see this was planned. No need to force unnecessary moves.

 

[g00n]

If they wanted to ditch Eller they'd have done it in the offseason. It's a pipe dream for now. Let it go.

The auxiliary players like NAK and Milano are likely for the chop in a cap crunch.

 

[twabby]

Why would they need to replace what Eller brings at center if Backstrom is back? Or are you talking about if Wilson comes back and Backstrom isn't playing yet?

I meant in case Backstrom comes back but an injury occurs at center. Protas could then slot in at center at a level that Eller is currently providing IMO.

 

[RedRocking]

I figure most will disagree with me, but Backie's physique looks the best I've seen him in his career. In the past he had some love handles and such for a pro athlete, but one of those physical work horse types with inner strength and game intellect. Now he is very much slimmed down and looks the best I can recall him looking. Amazing to me how he's skating so early on. What an addition if he comes back soon. Doesn't feel right with Ovy not getting 800 without Backstrom.



Indeed buddy. He's as much a franchise Cap as Ovy. He's been clutch when they needed him, especially with OT playoff goals. I do get the business side some posters point out, but some players you just keep.

Alan May: Backstrom is skating better than I’ve seen him in 7 years.

Obviously take an organizational shill’s words with a grain of salt and eye roll. But he said it as sincerely as he possibly could. And have heard Walton say similar things - again “like, no, I’m being completely serious.”

They keep saying the organization is really surprised at his progress.

So, we’ll believe it when we see it ofc. And I get wanting the cap space. But, yea I feel like people are sleeping on the fact that it’s still Nick F***ing Backstrom - who was still a ppg player on one leg last year, and was arguably our best player two years ago.

 

[Jags]

he’s a better option...weaken the team...downgrade the roster

This is what I'm asking, and these are the nebulous answers. Better option how, or by how much? Weakens the team how, or by how much? Downgrades the roster how, or by how much? I think we take a negligible hit in a couple categories, and maybe see an uptick in others. If there's a cap crunch necessary when/if Nick returns, the redundant guy making 3.5m is the obvious casualty, is all I'm saying.

Not going to sell-off and rebuild.

I don't see how it's a rebuild to unload one guy who's walking in 6 months anyway, especially if he becomes redundant in the meantime, which now seems likely.

The auxiliary players like NAK and Milano are likely for the chop in a cap crunch.

This only makes sense if they're going to carry fewer than the roster max, which they've never really done even with their farm team so close. Otherwise, losing guys at or near league minimum saves us nothing in a cap crunch. So long as they plan to use a full roster, which they usually do, the only way you save is to move someone who makes significantly more.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Trading Eller is not the sign of a sell off. It’s releasing some weight that can be filled by others.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

When those others are a better option, (or we acquire a better one) we can move on from Eller and anyone else IMO.

 

[Brian23]

Uhh, did they send Sheppeard down? Something up with Lindgren?

When those others are a better option, we can move on.

You will literally never know if they're better options with your thought process though. Good teams unload talents like Eller before they're put out to pasture, they don't just hold on.

 

[g00n]

This only makes sense if they're going to carry fewer than the roster max, which they've never really done even with their farm team so close. Otherwise, losing guys at or near league minimum saves us nothing in a cap crunch. So long as they plan to use a full roster, which they usually do, the only way you save is to move someone who makes significantly more.

Why? See my linked post further up.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This is what I'm asking, and these are the nebulous answers. Better option how, or by how much? Weakens the team how, or by how much? Downgrades the roster how, or by how much? I think we take a negligible hit in a couple categories, and maybe see an uptick in others. If there's a cap crunch necessary when/if Nick returns, the redundant guy making 3.5m is the obvious casualty, is all I'm saying.



I don't see how it's a rebuild to unload one guy who's walking in 6 months anyway, especially if he becomes redundant in the meantime, which now seems likely.



This only makes sense if they're going to carry fewer than the roster max, which they've never really done even with their farm team so close. Otherwise, losing guys at or near league minimum saves us nothing in a cap crunch. So long as they plan to use a full roster, which they usually do, the only way you save is to move someone who makes significantly more.

Not sure you can measure intangibles…but I think it sends a bad message while they’re still pushing to qualify.

 

[Monsterrain]

I don’t want to lose Mantha for peanuts when he’s been arguably their most impactful two-way ES forward. I don’t think they need to trade anyone to get compliant if my CapFriendly Armchair GM is accurate, but if they were to trade anyone it needs to be Eller. Protas is more than capable of replacing what Eller brings at center.

One of the worst posts I’ve ever read on here.

 

[zappa4ever]

///

You will literally never know if they're better options with your thought process though. Good teams unload talents like Eller before they're put out to pasture, they don't just hold on.

Double Covid, shoulder-problem, 15 different linemates 2021-22 Eller, sure, it's time to let him go...
Fully healthy, playing strong, strong PK, producing and contributing 2022-23 Eller... not so much
5th in fwd goals
7th in fwd pts

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Uhh, did they send Sheppeard down? Something up with Lindgren?


You will literally never know if they're better options with your thought process though. Good teams unload talents like Eller before they're put out to pasture, they don't just hold on.

My thought process is this.

Good players earn their roster spots. You don’t need to downgrade a position to force feed them ice time, because they earn it largely. Or they don’t and they’re simply not the better option at the time.

Good franchises don‘t do immediate downgrades to their roster when the team is shorthanded and fighting for a playoff spot. If other guys were viewed within the team as better options, they would probably be producing and playing better already, but they’re really not. I’m all for an Eller trade to upgrade the roster.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

When those others are a better option, (or we acquire a better one) we can move on from Eller and anyone else IMO.

If Nick comes back, you have Kuzy, Nick, and Strome. Eller becomes expendable in that scenario. (Provided Nick’s recovery is for real)

 

[Hivemind]

Is Lars Eller the difference between the Capitals losing in the first round or reaching the second round of the playoffs? No.

Is Lars Eller the difference between the Capitals reaching the playoffs or falling short? Also no.

Having Eller or not isn't going to change the end result of the 2022-23 Capitals, so they should get what assets they can for him (and help clear some of their cap bind at the same time).

Similar logic can be applied to Johansson.

 

[zappa4ever]

Is Lars Eller the difference between the Capitals losing in the first round or reaching the second round of the playoffs? No.

Is Lars Eller the difference between the Capitals reaching the playoffs or falling short? Also no.

Having Eller or not isn't going to change the end result of the 2022-23 Capitals, so they should get what assets they can for him (and help clear some of their cap bind at the same time).

Similar logic can be applied to Johansson.

lol, that logic applies to just about everyone that doesn't have 800 goals

Until TDL there's not too many deals to be had out there and until there's a timeline for Backstrom there's no need to go Erat hunting

 

[Brian23]

Double Covid, shoulder-problem, 15 different linemates 2021-22 Eller, sure, it's time to let him go...
Fully healthy, playing strong, strong PK, producing and contributing 2022-23 Eller... not so much
5th in fwd goals
7th in fwd pts

I mean, this is a pretty misleading way of using stats. He's 5th in Goals and 7th in points because 4 or 5 guys who'd be out preforming him have been hurt all year. For reference, he has one more goal then Dowd and only 3 more points then him while having more time then him. His shooting % is also a career high right now, ignoring his first year where he only played 2 games.

Forget replacing him with Protas maybe, Dowd can step up right now and save you from having to lose anyone else and save you money for almost the same level of performance. About the only thing he does well at the moment is PK defense, and you can find those for much cheaper then what they're paying him.

 

[Hivemind]

lol, that logic applies to just about everyone that doesn't have 800 goals

Until TDL there's not too many deals to be had out there and until there's a timeline for Backstrom there's no need to go Erat hunting

That logic definitely does not apply to everyone aside of Ovechkin. For instance, if they were to trade Strome today, it would require a miraculous instant return to form from Backstrom in order for them to make the playoffs. If they were to trade Orlov or Jensen, they likely miss the playoffs and definitely aren't advancing past the first round. If they were to trade a goalie, they'd be throwing away their newfound stability in net, and who knows what happens after that.

Also, not the entire roster is a UFA after this season (although 11 players are, which emphasizes the fact that they need to get value for some of them - as this year is a contractual inflection point for the franchise). So trading someone like Kuznetsov, Oshie, Dowd, or even Mantha or Wilson signals a longer-term decision than just the remainder of this season.

 

[zappa4ever]

I mean, this is a pretty misleading way of using stats. He's 5th in Goals and 7th in points because 4 or 5 guys who'd be out preforming him have been hurt all year. For reference, he has one more goal then Dowd and only 3 more points then him while having more time then him.

Statistically your 3C should be 7th in scoring for your FWDs after the Top-6

Strome and Sheary have essentially replaced Backstrom's and Wilson's numbers and are firmly in the Top-6 properly ahead of Eller; Milano and Oshie are a bit behind b/c of GP

"4 or 5 guys who'd be out performing him" -- now who is doing the misleading here?
that logic would make Eller 9th or 10th in fwd goals and 11th or 12th in fwd pts

 

[zappa4ever]

That logic definitely does not apply to everyone aside of Ovechkin. For instance, if they were to trade Strome today, it would require a miraculous instant return to form from Backstrom in order for them to make the playoffs. If they were to trade Orlov or Jensen, they likely miss the playoffs and definitely aren't advancing past the first round. If they were to trade a goalie, they'd be throwing away their newfound stability in net, and who knows what happens after that.

Also, not the entire roster is a UFA after this season (although 11 players are, which emphasizes the fact that they need to get value for some of them - as this year is a contractual inflection point for the franchise). So trading someone like Kuznetsov, Oshie, Dowd, or even Mantha or Wilson signals a longer-term decision than just the remainder of this season.

you weren't talking trades in your post,
you were talking Eller re: 1st rd vs. 2nd rd. and playoffs vs missing playoffs
not trades and returns

 

[Brian23]

Statistically your 3C should be 7th in scoring for your FWDs after the Top-6

Strome and Sheary have essentially replaced Backstrom's and Wilson's numbers and are firmly in the Top-6 properly ahead of Eller; Milano and Oshie are a bit behind b/c of GP

"4 or 5 guys who'd be out performing him" -- now who is doing the misleading here?
that logic would make Eller 9th or 10th in fwd goals and 11th or 12th in fwd pts

So exactly where he would have been last year? If Mantha and Oshie don't miss most of the year, he's 8th in goals and 8 or 9th in assists. This year, if not for injuries to Wilson, Backstrom, Oshie he'd be right where I said he was. That's ignoring contributions from Brown and Milano.

Like, you've done nothing but prove he's dead average if even that. You can get minute eaters at that spot to fill his PK role if you want it, but Dowd could be giving you similar numbers and you'd be saving 3 million against the Cap.

 

[Hivemind]

you weren't talking trades in your post,
you were talking Eller re: 1st rd vs. 2nd rd. and playoffs vs missing playoffs
not trades and returns

It's okay to admit you didn't read my post, rather than digging the hole deeper. Because my post clearly stated "so they should get what assets they can for him (and help clear some of their cap bind at the same time)" - which is very obviously about trades.

 

[twabby]

One of the worst posts I’ve ever read on here.

You must have skipped over a lot of my other posts!

 

[g00n]

Eller goal guaranteed tonight.