Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[RedRocking]

I think he's valued across the league, too. Not so sure that value equals $8 million and his movement clause limits things a bit. He also turns 33 in 8 weeks. I think it's a valuable trade regardless, but we'd be wise to temper our expectations a bit.

Yea, the league is well short of 1Ds, or just top 4 guys.

Darnell friggin’ Nurse is at the beginning of an 8yr/74M contract. Think about that.

So, yea Carlson would still probably net a significant return. Ted would never sign off on it though - he’s still Johnny Norris to the avg fan who buys tickets and his jerseys. Plus Ovi clearly needs him to make that pass on the PP

And for now, the team needs his offense - if only to offset his sh*t D. And every once in a while it seems like he actually knows what’s going on - that Milano breakaway on Vasi only happened because Carlson got to the puck in a high danger spot in DK’s crease and in one motion grabbed it and made that indirect pass.

Of course, he was heard saying “what just happened, I blacked out for a minute there” as he looked around, confused by the crowd celebration.

 

[Jags]

I’m just saying use the same logic for why an Orlov or Jensen trade makes sense and use it on Wilson. Except the return would be substantially more and the player would probably be easier to replace.

But how much of that do you need? The other component here is keeping a product on the ice worth showing up for, and showing loyalty to the players that are key to the organization AND still getting it done.

You have your opinion on Wilson and his fancy stats. I don't want to debate that cuz I don't think we'll ever agree. Suffice it to say that he's still (knock wood) exactly the player the fan base fell in love with.

Carlson isn't, Eller isn't, Oshie is when he's healthy, which hasn't been often. I think the fan base will ultimately understand when/if those guys have to be moved. Wilson will not go down that easily because he's 28 and still delivering.

I think if you set Wilson aside and part with maybe a very few of those others, you end up with more 1sts to maybe move up in good drafts, or stand pat and start stocking the farm properly. Then we can use the huge cap savings and other assets from those moves to make more Brown deals and Strome/Kuemper FA signings to help put a serviceable team together as we start moving through this process.

You can do all that and keep Wilson, is my point.

And just for the record, I'd be bummed if we lost Wilson but would cope so long as the return is appropriate. I just don't see the need. There are real, on-ice hockey reasons to trade those other half-dozen guys and none to trade Wilson. It's not all about the return he'd get. We can get plenty of return from other assets.

 

[RedRocking]

But how much of that do you need? The other component here is keeping a product on the ice worth showing up for, and showing loyalty to the players that are key to the organization AND still getting it done.

You have your opinion on Wilson and his fancy stats. I don't want to debate that cuz I don't think we'll ever agree. Suffice it to say that he's still (knock wood) exactly the player the fan base fell in love with.

Carlson isn't, Eller isn't, Oshie is when he's healthy, which hasn't been often. I think the fan base will ultimately understand when/if those guys have to be moved. Wilson will not go down that easily because he's 28 and still delivering.

I think if you set Wilson aside and part with maybe a very few of those others, you end up with more 1sts to maybe move up in good drafts, or stand pat and start stocking the farm properly. Then we can use the huge cap savings and other assets from those moves to make more Brown deals and Strome/Kuemper FA signings to help put a serviceable team together as we start moving through this process.

You can do all that and keep Wilson, is my point.

And just for the record, I'd be bummed if we lost Wilson but would cope so long as the return is appropriate. I just don't see the need. There are real, on-ice hockey reasons to trade those other half-dozen guys and none to trade Wilson. It's not all about the return he'd get. We can get plenty of return from other assets.

I kinda agree with twabby on this one. Not that you don’t try to deal the other guys, and see what you’d get first. But you should still be open to any and all ideas, like dealing TW, to make “the suck” shorter and less painful.

For me, it’s the old adage that we can lose just as well without Wilson (or player X) as we can with him. And assuming he’d net the biggest return, it’s something if I was a ruthless GM that didn’t have to answer to anyone, I’d be looking at.

Think of what the Hawks have been doing. DeBrincat is only 24 years old and they dealt him. You don’t think fans loved him and thought he’d be a key piece in a rebuild? Too bad, he represented the best value. And if they ice a garbage team this year, fine, it’s worth it for a shot at the guys in this draft.

It’s the same rationale that supposedly had Pasta on the block (no idea how true that ever was) - the team seemed to be headed in the wrong direction where Marchand and Bergeron were too old and the team wasn’t going anywhere (new coach, great start so far, so that obviously hasn’t happened), so you trade your most valuable piece(s) to jumpstart a rebuild, rather than drive a team full of depreciating assets into a ditch with no elite prospects in the pipeline to replace them (which is where we’ve been headed for a few years).

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Who are some recent examples of teams that traded their best player/most valuable guy and successfully jump started a rebuild that’s done anything? Chicago hasn’t rebuilt yet…anyone from the last decade done this and rebuilt a true contender?

 

[Jags]

I kinda agree with twabby on this one. Not that you don’t try to deal the other guys, and see what you’d get first. But you should still be open to any and all ideas, like dealing TW, to make “the suck” shorter and less painful.

I hear you, and I get what you're saying, but I still come back to keeping a product on the ice the fans will keep buying tickets for. There's also probably the notion of keeping Ovi happy while we figure all this shit out.

There's going to be a period of "consolation prize" hockey, where fans'll have to settle for more figurative victories and things they can take pride in. 895 is certainly one, but keeping the most beloved players to foster those attachments to the team is definitely another.

Backstrom is a huge question mark at best, Ovi's our team's biggest hero ever, and of the current roster I think Wilson is definitely next in line in terms of fan passion. He brings an identity to the team that our fans dig, all by himself. And given how they've stuck by him 100% even when he's been in the wrong on some of those suspensions, the players appear to feel the same.

Trading Wilson is like that moment in a Jenga game where you're trying to move a foundational piece that might topple the whole damn thing.

And lastly, this is just us dreaming. They're most likely not going to do anything major.

 

[trick9]

Is Byfield a bust is just another bigger body guy that'll take a bit longer to fully grow into his frame? Hard to say at this point but as far as center longshots it's still not a terrible one to take I think. They could do better but additional assets in such a package would be key. LA's still got a lot to offer.

Hard to see something like that involving Wilson aligning, of course. That's a big energy piece to subtract at a time when they'll need it most to have much hope of competing. Even if there are prudent reasons to be cautious of extending him it's another hard decision that would be difficult to imagine them erring on the side of responsibility and/or taking a potential step back to avoid. They've shown time and again they will tolerate a lot of risk to stay afloat. It's why I find it very likely they attempt to buy in the coming months once they're healthy again. Another winger to replace Brown would seem to be up their alley, esp. if the likes of Milano & Johansson aren't consistently effective.

He could be both but his trade value is dipping quickly and they aren't in position of strength if they decide to move him. His value anymore doesn't sniff Wilson but if they want to move him for a bigger body that's ready now then they can decide whether they want to move him in a trade for Mantha, not Wilson.

Either way there is a lot of things to do before we start thinking about a potential Wilson trade. One of the things include a house cleaning and fixing the scouting and player development system.

 

[PlushMinus]

For a long time now it's felt to me like the core is this old boy's club that won't ever be broken up. Ovie, Kuzy, Oshie, Carlson, Wilson (and Backstrom). I'd be surprised if mgmt start trading these guys away. Orlov will get re-upped, Wilson too in a couple of years.

And in 3 or 4 years most of those guys will just ride (limp) off into the sunset together, having failed to win anything else and likely missing the playoffs every season. All of it is conjecture, of course, but I just have this feeling that ownership and mgmt view it as "you can't break up the band! They all have to be here to celebrate when Ovie breaks the goals record!"

And he probably will get it, and it will be an incredible accomplishment, for sure. But if it comes at the expense of everything else (playoffs, a Cup, a watchable on-ice product), it's a hell of a price to pay for a professional sports TEAM, to enable an individual accomplishment (yes I'm sure this last sentence will be very unpopular around here. Oh well).

History is going to remember Ovechkin as the guy who broke one of Gretzky's seemingly unbeatable records. It's not going to remember Backstrom (okay maybe a little), Carlson, Oshie, Kuznetsov, Wilson et al.

We could have a much better "next three years" if some of those pieces were moved. I just have a feeling very little change is going to occur. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

I hear you, and I get what you're saying, but I still come back to keeping a product on the ice the fans will keep buying tickets for. There's also probably the notion of keeping Ovi happy while we figure all this shit out.

There's going to be a period of "consolation prize" hockey, where fans'll have to settle for more figurative victories and things they can take pride in. 895 is certainly one, but keeping the most beloved players to foster those attachments to the team is definitely another.

Backstrom is a huge question mark at best, Ovi's our team's biggest hero ever, and of the current roster I think Wilson is definitely next in line in terms of fan passion. He brings an identity to the team that our fans dig, all by himself. And given how they've stuck by him 100% even when he's been in the wrong on some of those suspensions, the players appear to feel the same.

Trading Wilson is like that moment in a Jenga game where you're trying to move a foundational piece that might topple the whole damn thing.

And lastly, this is just us dreaming. They're most likely not going to do anything major.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

... You need Wilsons and Oshie types to help foster the kind of culture you want going forward. That's also why I'd probably be more apt to want to move Carlson, I'd argue the culture he'd embody would be detrimental going forward.

I would make a sizeable contribution to a charity of someone's choice if I could be privy to front-office discussions about players' hockey IQs. Does anyone actually try to quantify this component of a player's 'skill-set'? While some of the Caps seem be above-average on this metric (e.g., Nicky), others (looking @ you, JC!) seem woefully subpar. I think the Caps as a team rank below the median in terms of hockey IQ. Such a team needs great coaching and superlative physical skills to compensate for its stupidity - which this team doesn't have.

 

[crab]

I think it really comes down to realistic expectations for Ovechkin. Does he really think this team can win another Cup? Or would he be happy to get the goal scoring record on the Capitals. If he wants to win a Cup it’s going to be a painful number of years because this team isn’t going to with this core.

Ideally they do a full rebuild while keeping a competitive enough first line and PP for Ovechkin to get the record.

The time to rebuild is now. Get some value for some the decent pieces.

In regards to Wilson, although he could return a huge package I would lean to keep him. He would be an important piece for a rebuilding team to create the culture of standing up for each other and protecting the younger players.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

For a long time now it's felt to me like the core is this old boy's club that won't ever be broken up. Ovie, Kuzy, Oshie, Carlson, Wilson (and Backstrom). I'd be surprised if mgmt start trading these guys away. Orlov will get re-upped, Wilson too in a couple of years.

And in 3 or 4 years most of those guys will just ride (limp) off into the sunset together, having failed to win anything else and likely missing the playoffs every season. All of it is conjecture, of course, but I just have this feeling that ownership and mgmt view it as "you can't break up the band! They all have to be here to celebrate when Ovie breaks the goals record!"

And he probably will get it, and it will be an incredible accomplishment, for sure. But if it comes at the expense of everything else (playoffs, a Cup, a watchable on-ice product), it's a hell of a price to pay for a professional sports TEAM, to enable an individual accomplishment (yes I'm sure this last sentence will be very unpopular around here. Oh well).

History is going to remember Ovechkin as the guy who broke one of Gretzky's seemingly unbeatable records. It's not going to remember Backstrom (okay maybe a little), Carlson, Oshie, Kuznetsov, Wilson et al.

We could have a much better "next three years" if some of those pieces were moved. I just have a feeling very little change is going to occur. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

For a long time now it's felt to me like the core is this old boy's club that won't ever be broken up. Ovie, Kuzy, Oshie, Carlson, Wilson (and Backstrom). I'd be surprised if mgmt start trading these guys away. Orlov will get re-upped, Wilson too in a couple of years.

And in 3 or 4 years most of those guys will just ride (limp) off into the sunset together, having failed to win anything else and likely missing the playoffs every season. All of it is conjecture, of course, but I just have this feeling that ownership and mgmt view it as "you can't break up the band! They all have to be here to celebrate when Ovie breaks the goals record!"

And he probably will get it, and it will be an incredible accomplishment, for sure. But if it comes at the expense of everything else (playoffs, a Cup, a watchable on-ice product), it's a hell of a price to pay for a professional sports TEAM, to enable an individual accomplishment (yes I'm sure this last sentence will be very unpopular around here. Oh well).

History is going to remember Ovechkin as the guy who broke one of Gretzky's seemingly unbeatable records. It's not going to remember Backstrom (okay maybe a little), Carlson, Oshie, Kuznetsov, Wilson et al.

We could have a much better "next three years" if some of those pieces were moved. I just have a feeling very little change is going to occur. I hope I'm wrong.

I don't know that they necessarily see it this way. Hockey is a business, and even for a rich owner like Leonsis, you don't want to lose ticket revenue, especially for the playoffs.

If the Caps are a basement team from this point onwards, they will not fill the arena to capacity anymore. Ovi is going to pass Howe this year for sure, but the road from 802 to 894 is quite long. There will be at least 1 year where Ovi doesn't set any kind of record, when he is going from 820 to 850 or 860-ish.

They need to give another reason for fans to be in the stands, and that cannot happen unless the team is in playoff contention.

The good news is that the Caps have a lot of money coming off the books this summer, approximately $30M. Some players will return with a raise (RFAs like Fehervary), but they have some flexibility to give the team a different look next year.

 

[Rayquaza64]

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don't know that they necessarily see it this way. Hockey is a business, and even for a rich owner like Leonsis, you don't want to lose ticket revenue, especially for the playoffs.

If the Caps are a basement team from this point onwards, they will not fill the arena to capacity anymore. Ovi is going to pass Howe this year for sure, but the road from 802 to 894 is quite long. There will be at least 1 year where Ovi doesn't set any kind of record, when he is going from 820 to 850 or 860-ish.

They need to give another reason for fans to be in the stands, and that cannot happen unless the team is in playoff contention.

The good news is that the Caps have a lot of money coming off the books this summer, approximately $30M. Some players will return with a raise (RFAs like Fehervary), but they have some flexibility to give the team a different look next year.

This one gets it. It’s a business.

 

[g00n]

I have been assured neither of those guys would ever walk again, let alone skate

 

[Brian23]

NAK right off suspension and right back to the 3rd line.

 

[tycoonheart]

Eller and Mantha seem to be stapled together.

 

[Rayquaza64]

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Oshie injured himself again by practicing at this point LOL.

 

[Brian23]

This is fine, everything is fine.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This is fine, everything is fine.

Clown show….


I see Kuzdemotedsov is centering line 2…

 

[zappa4ever]

I blame Col. Kempny
with the shovel
in the library

 

[Devil Dancer]

This is fine, everything is fine.

He was never going to ay again anyway.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Holy f*** get Mantha off the grinder line.

Milano-Kuznetsov-Mantha would be super interesting. Let Protas plug away with NAK and Eller.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

This is fine, everything is fine.

Holy f*** can guys stop getting hurt for a second? Which one of the two was it this time?

The tweet doesn’t specify