Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[AlexModvechkin8]

Tyson Jost on waivers. High draft pick? Check. Played NCAA or in the WHL? Check. Slow? Check. Can’t score? Check.

Tyson Jost, welcome to Washington.

 

[twabby]

Wilson is a good winger and a great asset to have. I'd wager a guess that he sells a lot of tickets and jerseys, too. I don't think his on-ice impact measures up to that of a quality top-6 center or a top pairing defenseman. As such, I would have traded Wilson as part of a package for Eichel without a moments thought.

One concern is the contractual situation. Caps may be eager to keep Wilson around long term but is Wilson interested in spending the bulk of his remaining career in a rebuild?

In my mind, the only thing that brings this aged group back into contention is a significant upgrade at center. The only way to get there would include giving up a lot of value. Wilson has a lot of value and most other Caps assets do not.

To this point both Dmitry Orlov and Nick Jensen have provided similar or more over the past 3 years on-ice than Tom Wilson as measured by GAR/xGAR and RAPM. Yet both Orlov and Jensen are (correctly IMO) being discussed here as potential trade bait due to their contract status and the need for Washington to get younger and better.

I highly, highly doubt either Jensen or Orlov would return half of what Wilson would return in a trade. And I highly doubt either Jensen or Orlov's next contract will be nearly as rich as Wilson's.

Given all of this it would seem logical to at least throw Tom Wilson's name into potential trade talks if indeed they are going to undergo a mini rebuild or retool.

 

[Corby78]

I would for sure look at trading Wilson. Would I make the trade? Depends on what is offered. I look at this way…. “Will this guy be a part of the next serious cup run this team makes?” I think Wilson could, so the price would be high for me to pull the trigger. I don’t see TJ making that cut, so I would take the best offer of futures I could get.

 

[Jags]

If we became sellers?

Get whatever you can for them: Eller, Carlson

Trade if/when you can get max value: Kuznetsov, Oshie, Mantha

Those I'd do before any other major player, which is to say that I'm not concerned one way or another about our margin vets like Hathaway, MoJo, etc.

My issue with rental trades like Orlov or Jensen is value. If either would yield a bigtime rental package, go nuts. I'd be looking at sign-and-trade possibilities otherwise. Difference-making hybrid defensemen are valuable.

With regard to Wilson, I'd like to see all/most of those iffier pieces above moved before even considering that. There's significant value and cap space there. Do moves like that, hopefully resolve the Backstrom situation. Open up meaningful spots in the lineup, give a couple youngsters spots, be competitive and smart in free agency.

 

[traparatus]

To this point both Dmitry Orlov and Nick Jensen have provided similar or more over the past 3 years on-ice than Tom Wilson as measured by GAR/xGAR and RAPM. Yet both Orlov and Jensen are (correctly IMO) being discussed here as potential trade bait due to their contract status and the need for Washington to get younger and better.

I highly, highly doubt either Jensen or Orlov would return half of what Wilson would return in a trade. And I highly doubt either Jensen or Orlov's next contract will be nearly as rich as Wilson's.

Given all of this it would seem logical to at least throw Tom Wilson's name into potential trade talks if indeed they are going to undergo a mini rebuild or retool.

No doubt. Wilson is a good player who generates a lot of emotion and attracts fans to the game. Jensen is just a good player.

Whatever else happens, BMac better be absolutely 100% sure of what Wilson's future plans are by next season. Losing one of our highest value assets for nothing would be absolutely devastating, considering the state of this core and competitive status of the franchise.

 

[Jags]

I highly, highly doubt either Jensen or Orlov would return half of what Wilson would return in a trade. And I highly doubt either Jensen or Orlov's next contract will be nearly as rich as Wilson's.

Of course they won't get top value without contracts. You don't shop Wilson for real until two things happen. 1) He comes back from injury and you see how he is. And 2) You've had serious talks about an extension and get a real feel for what that pricetag's going to be and how hard they push for a movement clause.

He'll be 30 when his new deal starts, so both sides will need to be realistic. If he's 100% and wants the kind of big money he's actually worth, you fight to minimize the movement clause. If he wants bonkers money you move him, ideally this offseason to maximize our options.

Given all of this it would seem logical to at least throw Tom Wilson's name into potential trade talks if indeed they are going to undergo a mini rebuild or retool.

Regardless of untouchability, no GM is hanging up the phone on any trade offer. Being willing to listen is kind of a no-brainer. I'm pretty sure they have their finger on the pulse of Tom Wilson's trade value.

 

[crazy8888]

He is unique, but it's hard to make the case that he will be enough to make this team competitive this year or next year. If the goal is to get one or two more Cup runs with Ovie on the roster then I think you have to consider dealing Wilson. Tweaking isn't going to make this team competitive, they need a significant infusion of talent and the only way I can really see that happening is by making a few savvy signings/trades and having an infusion of young talent. They don't have any gamebreakers in the pipeline now, but trading Wilson could change that. Trading Carlson could have changed that.

There is no one player that can take this team from bottom to the cup. I just dont understand the logic behind trading someone built for playoffs, team
Leader and still in his prime. I get the season sucks and people are panicking but this is a complete overreaction. This feels like trying to fix one of the only things that is not broken.

 

[twabby]

Is Byfield a bust is just another bigger body guy that'll take a bit longer to fully grow into his frame? Hard to say at this point but as far as center longshots it's still not a terrible one to take I think. They could do better but additional assets in such a package would be key. LA's still got a lot to offer.

Hard to see something like that involving Wilson aligning, of course. That's a big energy piece to subtract at a time when they'll need it most to have much hope of competing. Even if there are prudent reasons to be cautious of extending him it's another hard decision that would be difficult to imagine them erring on the side of responsibility and/or taking a potential step back to avoid. They've shown time and again they will tolerate a lot of risk to stay afloat. It's why I find it very likely they attempt to buy in the coming months once they're healthy again. Another winger to replace Brown would seem to be up their alley, esp. if the likes of Milano & Johansson aren't consistently effective.

I was actually thinking about LA and Byfield+ several months ago when I was envisioning what a successful Tom Wilson trade could look like.

That would at least be the type of deal I'd pursue. I also wouldn't hesitate sending him to a division rival like NJ if it meant getting a talent like Hughes or Nemec back. Guys that might not be NHLers now but will almost surely be NHL ready in a year or two and could significantly impact the game in ways that Wilson simply can't.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If we became sellers?

Get whatever you can for them: Eller, Carlson

Trade if/when you can get max value: Kuznetsov, Oshie, Mantha

Those I'd do before any other major player, which is to say that I'm not concerned one way or another about our margin vets like Hathaway, MoJo, etc.

My issue with rental trades like Orlov or Jensen is value. If either would yield a bigtime rental package, go nuts. I'd be looking at sign-and-trade possibilities otherwise. Difference-making hybrid defensemen are valuable.

With regard to Wilson, I'd like to see all/most of those iffier pieces above moved before even considering that. There's significant value and cap space there. Do moves like that, hopefully resolve the Backstrom situation. Open up meaningful spots in the lineup, give a couple youngsters spots, be competitive and smart in free agency.

Carlson isn’t a castoff like Eller is soon to be. He’s still too valuable league-wide to not be part of a good hockey trade. Agree with the rest….

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Whom to move? I am a firm believer that Ted wants a (somewhat) entertaining on-ice product. He likes the extra revenue from a few playoff games. He likes butts in seats and his share of concession sales. His share of TV $ and jersey sales counts for a bit, too. Wilson ain't going anywhere. BMac probably has a ~10 player "no trade" list, to move any of those names he would need Ted's approval - at minimum, these would include Ovie, Nicky, TJ, Tommy, JC, Orlov, Kuzy. Unlikely that any of them go unless there's an all-star or two coming back.

It's easier to can the coach and tinker on the edges of the roster. This team won't (can't?) buy an identify. It's difficult to imagine this team as currently constituted slipping into a WC slot. And it's hard to see them falling into the bottom 5 or 6 where their lottery chances would be decent. Limbo it is for the foreseeable future.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I was actually thinking about LA and Byfield+ several months ago when I was envisioning what a successful Tom Wilson trade could look like.

That would at least be the type of deal I'd pursue. I also wouldn't hesitate sending him to a division rival like NJ if it meant getting a talent like Hughes or Nemec back. Guys that might not be NHLers now but will almost surely be NHL ready in a year or two and could significantly impact the game in ways that Wilson simply can't.

To even entertain a Wilson trade for prospects, it would probably need to be a can‘t miss top pair D or top line guy….and at worst they should be ready to be full timers next year In DC.

 

[Jags]

Carlson isn’t a castoff like Eller is soon to be. He’s still too valuable league-wide to not be part of a good hockey trade.

I think he's valued across the league, too. Not so sure that value equals $8 million and his movement clause limits things a bit. He also turns 33 in 8 weeks. I think it's a valuable trade regardless, but we'd be wise to temper our expectations a bit.

 

[twabby]

Of course they won't get top value without contracts. You don't shop Wilson for real until two things happen. 1) He comes back from injury and you see how he is. And 2) You've had serious talks about an extension and get a real feel for what that pricetag's going to be and how hard they push for a movement clause.

He'll be 30 when his new deal starts, so both sides will need to be realistic. If he's 100% and wants the kind of big money he's actually worth, you fight to minimize the movement clause. If he wants bonkers money you move him, ideally this offseason to maximize our options.



Regardless of untouchability, no GM is hanging up the phone on any trade offer. Being willing to listen is kind of a no-brainer. I'm pretty sure they have their finger on the pulse of Tom Wilson's trade value.

For sure on #1. I don't think a trade makes sense until Wilson returns mainly because I think teams will be a bit cautious and his value is probably a bit lower than it will be a month or so after he returns.

I just think that with Carlson's value potentially dropping they really don't have any guys that look to be attractive assets in a trade aside from Wilson.

Kuznetsov? Doubt it, not with his reputation and recent results.

Jensen and Orlov? I doubt they return much more than a late first round pick each at the TDL, yet I think their absence would be more heavily felt than the absence of Wilson.

So what can they really do for next season if they can't get an immediate infusion of young talent? The options really become slowly continue to sink, or blow it up and start a 2003-04 style rebuild. If Ovechkin weren't around the rebuild option makes sense, but given that he is around I think they need to highly consider maximizing the assets the have for a quick turnaround retool.

 

[g00n]

Sell high on Carlson. Don't be seduced.

 

[Jags]

Kuznetsov? Doubt it, not with his reputation and recent results.

Jensen and Orlov? I doubt they return much more than a late first round pick each at the TDL, yet I think their absence would be more heavily felt than the absence of Wilson.

Kuznetsov has proven to be a productive center that can be a game-changer, and he's locked in at a good number for a couple years after this one.

If you're saying Jensen and Orlov can get us a 1st-round pick each plus a bit more in lieu of over $10m of cap hit, that ain't bad. And if futures aren't your thing, there's whatever the equivalent is in proven prospects or NHL talent.

So what can they really do for next season if they can't get an immediate infusion of young talent?

Sounds to me like you think if we don't trade our most valuable assets, we shouldn't trade any at all, as if the return on those other trades don't add up to a shitload of assets and cap space.

MacLellan has a pretty good nose for trades and free agent talent. Give him the assets and space to make those kinds of moves and there's a LOT that can be done to fill the spots we've discussed. And that's without moving Wilson.

Those 3 guys add up to over $15m in cap space, and it'll be shit or get off the pot time on Backstrom before too long, which is another 9.2. BMac didn't seem to break a sweat bringing in 3 impact players at affordable numbers early in the offseason. He can do plenty given both the cap and lineup space.

 

[YippieKaey]

More speculation, but here's someone else suggesting that the Capitals make Tom Wilson available if they become sellers this season (at around the 8:00 mark of the video).

It makes a ton of sense. There's no one on the roster that would yield a higher return than Wilson right now and teams would be lining up for his services especially if they make him available this year when he's not a rental.

Washington has to consider it. How much value does he have to Washington if they aren't going to be competitive this year? Will Wilson even want to re-sign in DC, or is he going to want to go to a more competitive team in 2024?

Now would be the season to sell him to extract absolute max value from him if they are unsure if he's going to re-sign in DC. I'd think he'd get a minimum of two and possibly three grade A assets (first round pick/blue chip prospect/good roster player). If Vrana got a first + Mantha, Wilson will likely get much more.

Oh and trade Carlson too.

More speculation, but here's someone else suggesting that the Capitals make Tom Wilson available if they become sellers this season (at around the 8:00 mark of the video).

It makes a ton of sense. There's no one on the roster that would yield a higher return than Wilson right now and teams would be lining up for his services especially if they make him available this year when he's not a rental.

Washington has to consider it. How much value does he have to Washington if they aren't going to be competitive this year? Will Wilson even want to re-sign in DC, or is he going to want to go to a more competitive team in 2024?

Now would be the season to sell him to extract absolute max value from him if they are unsure if he's going to re-sign in DC. I'd think he'd get a minimum of two and possibly three grade A assets (first round pick/blue chip prospect/good roster player). If Vrana got a first + Mantha, Wilson will likely get much more.

Oh and trade Carlson too.

At this point i'd do this trade. Reluctantly.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

If we could trade Wilson as part of a package to get an Eichel back then yeah, I’d certainly consider trading Wilson. It needs to be a franchise altering trade for me to consider it. In my dreams I can hope that the Oilers flame out early, Holland wants a shake up, and we could trade Wilson + Carlson for Draisatl.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Tyson Jost on waivers. High draft pick? Check. Played NCAA or in the WHL? Check. Slow? Check. Can’t score? Check.

Tyson Jost, welcome to Washington.

As much as he fits their profile, I don’t think there is any space in the line-up.

 

[Brian23]

As much as he fits their profile, I don’t think there is any space in the line-up.

Might be the guy that they send CMM down to Hershey for.

 

[Capsman]

There is no one player that can take this team from bottom to the cup. I just dont understand the logic behind trading someone built for playoffs, team
Leader and still in his prime. I get the season sucks and people are panicking but this is a complete overreaction. This feels like trying to fix one of the only things that is not broken.

I think the point is that Wilson’s trade value is more than his actual on-ice value. He’s a good player but could haul the return of a superior player. Why? Because he could fill an important niche for a team vying for a Stanley Cup. For a team like ours with no hope for a SC this season (or any of the next 3 seasons), his value is not nearly as high.

 

[crazy8888]

I think the point is that Wilson’s trade value is more than his actual on-ice value. He’s a good player but could haul the return of a superior player. Why? Because he could fill an important niche for a team vying for a Stanley Cup. For a team like ours with no hope for a SC this season (or any of the next 3 seasons), his value is not nearly as high.

What stanley cup contender is giving up a superior player before they go on their run? Or you mean a high pick that may possibly someday turn out to be superior to Wilson? None of this makes sense. Even if this season is a wash they still have few more tries before current core is gone.

 

[Peeri]

What stanley cup contender is giving up a superior player before they go on their run? Or you mean a high pick that may possibly someday turn out to be superior to Wilson? None of this makes sense. Even if this season is a wash they still have few more tries before current core is gone.

What core is giving you few years? This core is was over the edge few years ago, that SC run was a miracle and they capitalized on their only chance of winning it all. There is absolutely no way this core is winning anything in the coming years. I doubt they can even make the playoffs in the future.

 

[twabby]

Kuznetsov has proven to be a productive center that can be a game-changer, and he's locked in at a good number for a couple years after this one.

If you're saying Jensen and Orlov can get us a 1st-round pick each plus a bit more in lieu of over $10m of cap hit, that ain't bad. And if futures aren't your thing, there's whatever the equivalent is in proven prospects or NHL talent.



Sounds to me like you think if we don't trade our most valuable assets, we shouldn't trade any at all, as if the return on those other trades don't add up to a shitload of assets and cap space.

MacLellan has a pretty good nose for trades and free agent talent. Give him the assets and space to make those kinds of moves and there's a LOT that can be done to fill the spots we've discussed. And that's without moving Wilson.

Those 3 guys add up to over $15m in cap space, and it'll be shit or get off the pot time on Backstrom before too long, which is another 9.2. BMac didn't seem to break a sweat bringing in 3 impact players at affordable numbers early in the offseason. He can do plenty given both the cap and lineup space.

I think they should trade everyone that has minimal impact. Guys like Eller, Sheary, Hathaway, Mantha, should probably be gone no matter what. They won’t get a ton, but it will give them flexibility going into next year.

I’d be a little disappointed with just a first round pick when it comes to Orlov and Jensen because I think they can still be top 3 contributors for several more years. Consider that Ben Chiarot got a first round pick last year and I’d hope they’d return more than that. They will need to replace these guys, and unlike the prior list it will be non-trivial to replace Orlov and Jensen.

I really do think they have a unique opportunity with Tom Wilson however. He’s a good player, but I’d argue he’s a little easier to replace than Jensen and Orlov. You’re never going to get another player exactly like him when it comes to the physicality, but I think you can get a similar on-ice impact player for relatively cheap. And it’s hard to imagine his return being anything but massive. I think the Tkachuk trade provides a template for this. Wilson isn’t as good as Tkachuk but Calgary also didn’t have the leverage Washington would have this year.

I’m just saying use the same logic for why an Orlov or Jensen trade makes sense and use it on Wilson. Except the return would be substantially more and the player would probably be easier to replace.

 

[Brian23]

I’m just saying use the same logic for why an Orlov or Jensen trade makes sense and use it on Wilson. Except the return would be substantially more and the player would probably be easier to replace.

The problem with that thought is Wilson has more intrinisic value to the team then just his on ice contributions. He's a heart and soul guy, probably short listed currently as the next Captain if/when Ovi leaves, and is also a huge fan favorite. Where as Orlov and Jensen both much more subdued players who's only real value, seemingly, is what they bring on the ice.

I'm not saying you're wrong, he would bring back a better return, I'm just highlighting that it's not an apples to apples comparison. Ovi can't, and shouldn't be the only Veteran this team has going into a new era for the team. You need Wilsons and Oshie types to help foster the kind of culture you want going forward. That's also why I'd probably be more apt to want to move Carlson, I'd argue the culture he'd embody would be detrimental going forward.

 

[crazy8888]

What core is giving you few years? This core is was over the edge few years ago, that SC run was a miracle and they capitalized on their only chance of winning it all. There is absolutely no way this core is winning anything in the coming years. I doubt they can even make the playoffs in the future.

Whatever you people win. Trade away everyone who is worth a damn.