Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[Brian23]

Holy f*** can guys stop getting hurt for a second? Which one of the two was it this time?

The tweet doesn’t specify

AA.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

AA.

Guess I need a grammar lesson lol. Thanks for pointing it out

 

[Jags]

NAK right off suspension and right back to the 3rd line.

I'm trying to find the words to express my frustration with Laviolette right now, but it's starting to sound something like shoving a cactus up his ass, so I'll spare you all the gorier details...

 

[Jags]

Eller and Mantha seem to be stapled together.

Of course, because when you have a talented wing struggling to score, you should absolutely line him up with a center that can't help him score and a wing whose only accomplishment ever in a Caps sweater was illegally denting a skull. Didn't you know that? Sheesh.

 

[YippieKaey]

I would make a sizeable contribution to a charity of someone's choice if I could be privy to front-office discussions about players' hockey IQs. Does anyone actually try to quantify this component of a player's 'skill-set'? While some of the Caps seem be above-average on this metric (e.g., Nicky), others (looking @ you, JC!) seem woefully subpar. I think the Caps as a team rank below the median in terms of hockey IQ. Such a team needs great coaching and superlative physical skills to compensate for its stupidity - which this team doesn't have.

Really? I feel like that's all we have. Ovi is an incredibly smart player, TvR has good defensive reads, Dowd & Hathaway know how to get their job done and i'd argue even JC has pretty good IQ. The issue for me is more effort level, stamina and just being old with less quick twitch muscles etc.

 

[twabby]

But how much of that do you need? The other component here is keeping a product on the ice worth showing up for, and showing loyalty to the players that are key to the organization AND still getting it done.

You have your opinion on Wilson and his fancy stats. I don't want to debate that cuz I don't think we'll ever agree. Suffice it to say that he's still (knock wood) exactly the player the fan base fell in love with.

Carlson isn't, Eller isn't, Oshie is when he's healthy, which hasn't been often. I think the fan base will ultimately understand when/if those guys have to be moved. Wilson will not go down that easily because he's 28 and still delivering.

I think if you set Wilson aside and part with maybe a very few of those others, you end up with more 1sts to maybe move up in good drafts, or stand pat and start stocking the farm properly. Then we can use the huge cap savings and other assets from those moves to make more Brown deals and Strome/Kuemper FA signings to help put a serviceable team together as we start moving through this process.

You can do all that and keep Wilson, is my point.

And just for the record, I'd be bummed if we lost Wilson but would cope so long as the return is appropriate. I just don't see the need. There are real, on-ice hockey reasons to trade those other half-dozen guys and none to trade Wilson. It's not all about the return he'd get. We can get plenty of return from other assets.

I want Ovechkin to compete for another Cup while he's still a great player. The only way I see that happening is getting an infusion of young talent that has the potential to break out into stardom in the next 2 years or so. Mid to late first round picks are nice and would certainly help in 5+ years but Ovechkin is going to be 42 at that point and likely won't be more than a PP specialist, if he doesn't retire before.

I've been wanting to trade Carlson for years for this exact reason. A year or two ago I suspect he could have returned something substantial to make the last few years of the Ovechkin era more competitive, but alas I think this ship may have sailed.

Maybe they can still parlay the pieces they'd get back for their unimportant players plus some combination of Orlov/Jensen/Carlson/Kuznetsov into a star young talent, but I really think quality trumps quantity when it comes to trades. If Wilson is dangled there's no reason for me to suspect that half the league won't be in on him.

In pure hockey terms it's also quite a bit easier to replace a top 6 right wing than it would be a top 3 defenseman (or two top 3 defensemen, if they decide to trade two of Carlson/Jensen/Orlov). I imagine it would hurt a lot of fans to see a fan favorite leave, but I don't think it's going to crater the locker room or anything like that. The fans will get over it if it makes the team more competitive.

You can certainly keep Wilson, but I think exploring trading him opens a lot of doors that couldn't be opened otherwise is my point.

 

[Jags]

I want Ovechkin to compete for another Cup while he's still a great player.

Oh. That's not happening.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Oh. That's not happening.

Yup….best let that go.

 

[twabby]

Oh. That's not happening.

Assuming you are correct, what are you hoping the team does in the final years of Ovechkin's career?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Makes the playoffs, scores goals….GMBM has one more huge shot this off-season to make sure that can happen.

 

[Jags]

Assuming you are correct, what are you hoping the team does in the final years of Ovechkin's career?

Turnover. Timely turnover. We're already years behind, so we need to catch up. This idea we seem to have, like with Eller, that nothing can be done to fix poor production from a position until a contract expires, is preposterous. And we're definitely at that point now with Carlson, too.

To be clear, neither guy is bad; they're just not fits for where we are or where we're headed. Half our top 6 is on IR and yet we have talented wings that can score. Eller can't help them. We also don't need an $8m defenseman that's 33. If we're gonna have an $8m defenseman at all, he should be 25 -- young enough to outlive our rebuild. Move them, gain assets.

If there's noteworthy assets to be had for a healthy Oshie at the TDL, do it. Only if the return is right and hopefully to a destination where he might win something, but do it.

Mantha not working out? Trade. Talks with Orlov or Jensen looking stupid expensive? Trade. And so on, as the next couple years unfold with Kuznetsov and whoever else.

While that's going on, we'll have to balance it with acquisitions. We should be okay struggling, but we can't become a cellar-dwelling, dogshit organization. Remember back when free agents avoided DC like the plague? Can't have that. We don't want to be on anyone's short no-trade list. We need to sell players outside DC on the idea of being the cornerstones of our next big hockey era, post-Ovi.

Lastly, it's not like we don't want Ovi to win another Cup. But if we're being honest, he'll be one of the key reasons we can't. He's a painfully one-dimensional player now and he costs a ton. Still great at what he does for sure, an inspiration to the club, and a hero to fans, but his utility is waning. It's painful to admit that he's a liability in a couple key areas, but he is.

No big deal though. We all knew this was coming. Ride or die.

 

[twabby]

Turnover. Timely turnover. We're already years behind, so we need to catch up. This idea we seem to have, like with Eller, that nothing can be done to fix poor production from a position until a contract expires, is preposterous. And we're definitely at that point now with Carlson, too.

To be clear, neither guy is bad; they're just not fits for where we are or where we're headed. Half our top 6 is on IR and yet we have talented wings that can score. Eller can't help them. We also don't need an $8m defenseman that's 33. If we're gonna have an $8m defenseman at all, he should be 25 -- young enough to outlive our rebuild. Move them, gain assets.

If there's noteworthy assets to be had for a healthy Oshie at the TDL, do it. Only if the return is right and hopefully to a destination where he might win something, but do it.

Mantha not working out? Trade. Talks with Orlov or Jensen looking stupid expensive? Trade. And so on, as the next couple years unfold with Kuznetsov and whoever else.

While that's going on, we'll have to balance it with acquisitions. We should be okay struggling, but we can't become a cellar-dwelling, dogshit organization. Remember back when free agents avoided DC like the plague? Can't have that. We don't want to be on anyone's short no-trade list. We need to sell players outside DC on the idea of being the cornerstones of our next big hockey era, post-Ovi.

Lastly, it's not like we don't want Ovi to win another Cup. But if we're being honest, he'll be one of the key reasons we can't. He's a painfully one-dimensional player now and he costs a ton. Still great at what he does for sure, an inspiration to the club, and a hero to fans, but his utility is waning. It's painful to admit that he's a liability in a couple key areas, but he is.

No big deal though. We all knew this was coming. Ride or die.

This is a more than reasonable plan, and I appreciate this post.

I think the main philosophical difference we have is that I do not care at all about the post-Ovie Capitals right now. I’d rather they sellout for the most important athlete in DC history and not worry at all about laying the groundwork for the post-Ovie era.

 

[RedRocking]

Guess I need a grammar lesson lol. Thanks for pointing it out

No, it’s not you, it’s a shitty use of unclear pronouns, lol.

Why isn’t Snively getting a sweater? Am I the only one that thought he played well against FLA? NAK again?! Am I taking crazy pills?!

 

[um]

LOL they're not f***ing trading Wilson

Don't post while high

It is very unlikely.

But I would like to hear what teams are offering. You never know what a desperate GM would do, see GMGM Forsberg for Erat trade.

 

[Brian23]

I think the main philosophical difference we have is that I do not care at all about the post-Ovie Capitals right now. I’d rather they sellout for the most important athlete in DC history and not worry at all about laying the groundwork for the post-Ovie era.

Then I'd argue you're an Ovechkin fan and not a Capitals fan.

I liked this team before Ovechkin came and I'll like them long after he's gone. This idea that selling out everything for him to get an alcolade, like building a respectful team that can continue to contend when he's gone doesn't help, just makes no sense to me.

 

[um]

Oh. That's not happening.

The only hope is we win the lottery and draft a superstar.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This is a more than reasonable plan, and I appreciate this post.

I think the main philosophical difference we have is that I do not care at all about the post-Ovie Capitals right now. I’d rather they sellout for the most important athlete in DC history and not worry at all about laying the groundwork for the post-Ovie era.

That’s a decision only Ted can make. To blow every valuable draft pick and prospect and make some potentially high risk trades will end up costing ownership maybe 10s of millions for many years as they they hope for the next magic bean (Post Ovy) to turn into a Superstar they can start all over with….

It seems so incredibly unlikely. They have a chance to really reshape the roster this summer. I think that’s the plan we should all be speculating on….how that shakes out.

 

[twabby]

Then I'd argue you're an Ovechkin fan and not a Capitals fan.

I liked this team before Ovechkin came and I'll like them long after he's gone. This idea that selling out everything for him to get an alcolade, like building a respectful team that can continue to contend when he's gone doesn't help, just makes no sense to me.

I’m a fan of both but yes I think it’s fair to say I’m more of an Ovie fan than a Capitals fan.

 

[Kuz]

The only hope is we win the lottery and draft a superstar.

Would be fun to see us win the lottery and Get a superstar.

Its a good draft this year with Bedard and Michkov. Then you have Fantilli and Carlsson aswell.

Would be some bitter fans from other teambases if the Caps the first year they miss in a long time wins the draft lottery.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Then I'd argue you're an Ovechkin fan and not a Capitals fan.

I liked this team before Ovechkin came and I'll like them long after he's gone. This idea that selling out everything for him to get an alcolade, like building a respectful team that can continue to contend when he's gone doesn't help, just makes no sense to me.

You know there are probably a significant contingent that will no longer follow the team after he’s gone….me…..Caps fan 4L.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Would be fun to see us win the lottery and Get a superstar.

Its a good draft this year with Bedard and Michkov. Then you have Fantilli and Carlsson aswell.

Would be some bitter fans from other teambases if the Caps the first year they miss in a long time wins the draft lottery.

Omg….we need another lightning strike. Imagine Fantilli or Carlsson playing with Ovy to the end…..or Bedard….like dreaming about the Powerball…

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Bonzai will always be my favorite player but yeah, Caps fan 4L as well.

 

[PlushMinus]

I don't know that they necessarily see it this way. Hockey is a business, and even for a rich owner like Leonsis, you don't want to lose ticket revenue, especially for the playoffs.

If the Caps are a basement team from this point onwards, they will not fill the arena to capacity anymore. Ovi is going to pass Howe this year for sure, but the road from 802 to 894 is quite long. There will be at least 1 year where Ovi doesn't set any kind of record, when he is going from 820 to 850 or 860-ish.

They need to give another reason for fans to be in the stands, and that cannot happen unless the team is in playoff contention.

The good news is that the Caps have a lot of money coming off the books this summer, approximately $30M. Some players will return with a raise (RFAs like Fehervary), but they have some flexibility to give the team a different look next year.

How much revenue is there to be made from 5-6 playoff games every year, though? Having said that, I get the part about wanting to sell tickets and fill seats during the regular season. (a question about this: doesn't the NHL participate in revenue sharing, so the least popular teams in terms of attendance still get a share of the entire ticket sales across the league?).

The problem with the $30M coming off the books next summer is this: 13 UFA's and 3 RFA's. So that's an average of $2M per player. Raising the cap will help a little, but we're not talking about freeing up a large amount of cap space to spend on 4-5 players. Most of the $30M is going to be spent replacing those 13-16 guys. And I'm guessing 5M of it - or a little more - will be spent on Orlov alone.

 

[Raikkonen]

Why wait till after the season? This is his 3rd year, has he shown he is capable of improving the way this team plays? What is the point in keeping him right now? He, and his assistants, need to be fired asap. Worst thing that will do is make us keep losing games with whoever the interim coach is.

meant in a sense of not keeping him for sure

to fire him now will achieve the same, I'm not looking closely enough to know if it's the time already

 

[Raikkonen]

they won't win a cup with Ovi, that we can agree with, right?

so next 3 years will be painful

and they need to position themselves to get more guys like Jimi and Miro

those new young guys will be ready to compete... when? 5 years from now?

in 5 years Wilson will be a shell of his former self perhaps
Carlson retired
Orlov a slow vet

Backstrom and Oshie obviously gone

I can see Wilson and/or Carlson traded for a good package

odds are Wilson could fetch more if proven healthy after injury, so maybe he goes

if there is no good price for 74 he stays, you need that pass and players to get to the salary cap bottom anyway

maybe economy changes and he's too expensive for Ted and then he goes anyway

trade Wilson, sign Brown again. this is probable at least. dunno if highly

be honest with yourself. Wilson is getting older and losing effectiveness. even before the injury I've seen that