Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[Brian23]

Ovi window strong rather than watch this old, wounded animal die a slow death.

This has been my problem the whole time. People act like this team has to suck when we lose Ovi and Co. A good team can manage the drop off and still be competitive, there's no reason we need to end up with a Nationals level rebuild if the front office is just willing to make decisions on people before they're forced into it.

 

[Langway]

The issue with relying on an abundance of cap space next summer if they're still captive to what's available, esp. if they're relatively impatient believing they must blow it all to regain relevance rather quickly. A fair bit of what they lack probably can only come via patience and drafting and development. Special bedrock type talents aren't readily available all the time. A wholesale shift is likely required from being so obsessively win-now toward honest development and patience on a wider timescale. I doubt it'll be easy for them to make such a shift. They've got to manage the day-to-day on multiple fronts a lot better than they have and if there's one main area where MacLellan is questionable it's execution and vision on that wider scale. They've veered to far off balance in order to keep it minimally viable that they've sort of lost the plot. I'm not sure they fully grasp what it is that puts teams on favorable ground these days. They're so stuck on what's worked previously and expecting that comfort zone operation to continue to get it done.

They could perhaps restructure the PP with a more effective QB than Carlson. Maybe there's resolution to spend Backstrom's AAV in full. They could perhaps keenly replace many secondary parts toward more fluid, cerebral two-way play that better complements aging talent. But it's asking a lot of any one off-season, esp. for them in not having had to make such severe changes in a considerable amount of time. I'm not sure they're altogether up for that on a comprehensive, forward-looking level. Or that it's realistic to expect that degree of difficulty to be executed without issue. These are very tricky waters they may be entering. It's why primarily I expect them to attempt to bypass them instead to aggressively seek to keep it on the rails.

Combine all that with a potential coaching change and it's a lot to sort out in one off-season potentially. It would be an opportunity for them to refresh their approach but they've been so locked in for so long that you wonder if this front office is capable of new tricks to that extent. MacLellan is now the seventh most tenured GM. A bit shocking when you think about it. But basically every franchise that's been high grade has that inevitable front office turnover. They may be due...only you really would not expect Leonsis to grasp that until it's exceedingly and unavoidably obvious.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

The issue with relying on an abundance of cap space next summer if they're still captive to what's available, esp. if they're relatively impatient believing they must blow it all to regain relevance rather quickly. A fair bit of what they lack probably can only come via patience and drafting and development. Special bedrock type talents aren't readily available all the time. A wholesale shift is likely required from being so obsessively win-now toward honest development and patience on a wider timescale. I doubt it'll be easy for them to make such a shift. They've got to manage the day-to-day on multiple fronts a lot better than they have and if there's one main area where MacLellan is questionable it's execution and vision on that wider scale. They've veered to far off balance in order to keep it minimally viable that they've sort of lost the plot. I'm not sure they fully grasp what it is that puts teams on favorable ground these days. They're so stuck on what's worked previously and expecting that comfort zone operation to continue to get it done.

They could perhaps restructure the PP with a more effective QB than Carlson. Maybe there's resolution to spend Backstrom's AAV in full. They could perhaps keenly replace many secondary parts toward more fluid, cerebral two-way play that better complements aging talent. But it's asking a lot of any one off-season, esp. for them in not having had to make such severe changes in a considerable amount of time. I'm not sure they're altogether up for that on a comprehensive, forward-looking level. Or that it's realistic to expect that degree of difficulty to be executed without issue. These are very tricky waters they may be entering. It's why primarily I expect them to attempt to bypass them instead to aggressively seek to keep it on the rails.

Combine all that with a potential coaching change and it's a lot to sort out in one off-season potentially. It would be an opportunity for them to refresh their approach but they've been so locked in for so long that you wonder if this front office is capable of new tricks to that extent. MacLellan is now the seventh most tenured GM. A bit shocking when you think about it. But basically every franchise that's been high grade has that inevitable front office turnover. They may be due...only you really would not expect Leonsis to grasp that until it's exceedingly and unavoidably obvious.

Having a ton of cap space isn’t just about free agency, it opens up the doors to more trades as well which is why I’m advocating for a sell-off. Stockpile assets and cap space and and see what moves are available in the off-season. They may not get it done in one off-season but they can lay the foundation.

The worst thing they can do is blow the future to try and save this year. They’d need to go on a 12 wins in 15 stretch or something like that to feel comfortable about their playoff position and even then, questions remain about their makeup as it relates to the playoffs. They’ve had key injuries the last four years and the likelihood of them ever being full strength again with this core is pretty slim.

 

[Jags]

This has been my problem the whole time. People act like this team has to suck when we lose Ovi and Co. A good team can manage the drop off and still be competitive, there's no reason we need to end up with a Nationals level rebuild if the front office is just willing to make decisions on people before they're forced into it.

Right? If we're being honest, the final years of Ovi will be his worst, and the season after he retires we'll have $10m to spend to replace him. Given that he's likely to be a pretty one-dimensional 30-goal scorer if we're lucky at that point, $10m should get the job done, no?

The truth is that we're FAR more likely to suck DURING his final years because we'll have $10m tied up in him, while simultaneously having a serious irrational attraction to head coaches that refuse to develop prospects. Hell, we might still be propping up Backstrom and Oshie like scarecrows. You think recently having $40m on IR is bad? Wait till we've got $25m tied up in a geriatric 8/19/77 1st line; Ovi swinging at one-timers that aren't there, Nick out there using his stick as a crutch, Oshie crashing head-first into the boards for no reason like the opening scene of Happy Gilmore...

 

[Langway]

Having a ton of cap space isn’t just about free agency, it opens up the doors to more trades as well which is why I’m advocating for a sell-off. Stockpile assets and cap space and and see what moves are available in the off-season. They may not get it done in one off-season but they can lay the foundation.

The worst thing they can do is blow the future to try and save this year. They’d need to go on a 12 wins in 15 stretch or something like that to feel comfortable about their playoff position and even then, questions remain about their makeup as it relates to the playoffs. They’ve had key injuries the last four years and the likelihood of them ever being full strength again with this core is pretty slim.

I largely agree. I'm just skeptical that they'd be patient and selective enough in practice to optimize available flexibility. Even if they seriously venture into the trade market there's still a degree of foundational younger talent that's rarely available. I think they're probably already at the stage where realistically they need that level of talent on defense and at center to properly reload. So while they could maybe shuffle the deck via trade acquiring higher-end talent will more likely to be of the older and similarly declining category. Foundational type pieces are rarely available at those positions for good reason. It's very, very hard to expect them to address even one of them in a given off-season if they're lucky. So it's more likely to remain pretty mid either way. Maybe the supporting secondary pieces are a bit better. Maybe they luck out in other areas but hard to expect fortunes to drastically change in one off-season.

They're extremely likely to take whatever convenient shortcut becomes available that best promises to allow them to maintain the status quo. I think that's the case now and will remain the case in the off-season given how ownership typically operates. By acting now maybe they minimize some of the concern surrounding their direction by still achieving internal goals. I don't know about blowing the future necessarily. But with the way things are going with McMichael you wonder if that's not the chip to play to add a second-line forward or something. Even that I'm not sure does a whole lot on its own given their softness and leaky defensive play. Tack on a coaching change then, yeah, maybe it's just enough. That's pretty much what I'd expect based on past history.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

His shot is nice. That slap shot on the breakaway reminds me of when Semin would do it lol

 

[twabby]

A few weeks ago I wouldn't have said this, but at this point I do think they need to consider this a lost season. What's their best case scenario at this point? A wild card and a first round exit? Carolina and New Jersey are a class above Washington, the Rangers likely are as well. Yeah maybe they can fight Pittsburgh for that last wild card spot, or hope that Toronto implodes or something and snag a spot while finishing 5th in the Metro, but it's bleak.

Assuming this season is lost, what should they do?

-Fire Laviolette. He's not the guy.
-Play McMichael meaningful NHL minutes at center this year so they know what they have going into next season.
-Sell all of their unimportant UFAs (Eller, Johansson, Hathaway, probably Sheary)
-Consider selling one or both of Orlov/Jensen, depending on their trade return. Again I wouldn't have been in favor of this to start the year, but it needs to at least be considered now.

They also need to sell Carlson by the next offseason. If nothing materializes by the TDL that's fine, but they can't keep trotting him out there and expecting things to change. It's clear that he can't keep up in the faster NHL. They need to get what they can ASAP, even if they should have done so a year or two ago.

And then hope for the best w/r/t the draft lottery.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

So frustrating that CMM hasn’t been getting consistent games. Same thing is happening with AA, unfortunately. Both players being scratched for scrub, veteran plugs. Lavi really has to be fired. Two of our top prospects are not getting any development time.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

This has been my problem the whole time. People act like this team has to suck when we lose Ovi and Co. A good team can manage the drop off and still be competitive, there's no reason we need to end up with a Nationals level rebuild if the front office is just willing to make decisions on people before they're forced into it.

No no no..they don’t HAVE to, but they are going to. They don’t have the draft pipeline and their one star potential player (92) only plays the role when he feels like it.

Unless we see a miracle, they are going to suck badly in 3-4 years.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Spencer Carberry should be out next HC before he gets snatched up by someone else……We need some solid, young blood and he’s very familiar with our organization. Just saying.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

His shot is nice. That slap shot on the breakaway reminds me of when Semin would do it lol

Does the KHL allow fans? All I ever see is empty seats.

This kid, he might be a real gem. Let’s hope for continued health.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I largely agree. I'm just skeptical that they'd be patient and selective enough in practice to optimize available flexibility. Even if they seriously venture into the trade market there's still a degree of foundational younger talent that's rarely available. I think they're probably already at the stage where realistically they need that level of talent on defense and at center to properly reload. So while they could maybe shuffle the deck via trade acquiring higher-end talent will more likely to be of the older and similarly declining category. Foundational type pieces are rarely available at those positions for good reason. It's very, very hard to expect them to address even one of them in a given off-season if they're lucky. So it's more likely to remain pretty mid either way. Maybe the supporting secondary pieces are a bit better. Maybe they luck out in other areas but hard to expect fortunes to drastically change in one off-season.

They're extremely likely to take whatever convenient shortcut becomes available that best promises to allow them to maintain the status quo. I think that's the case now and will remain the case in the off-season given how ownership typically operates. By acting now maybe they minimize some of the concern surrounding their direction by still achieving internal goals. I don't know about blowing the future necessarily. But with the way things are going with McMichael you wonder if that's not the chip to play to add a second-line forward or something. Even that I'm not sure does a whole lot on its own given their softness and leaky defensive play. Tack on a coaching change then, yeah, maybe it's just enough. That's pretty much what I'd expect based on past history.

They may not have a choice at this point with regards to their future path. They're floundering, they have no answers for how to generate offense, and reinforcements largely are not on the way. Does Wilson coming off an ACL injury and Orlov really move the needle all that much for this team? Maybe, but doubtful. They needed a lot of things to go right this year and they've all pretty much gone wrong. Some of which is their own doing but some of it is plain rotten luck.

BMac has had his missteps but I think he's largely been on the money when it comes to this team's pulse. I wonder if the edict on going younger after last season was squashed by Ted. BMac was pretty clear that he thought last spring was their last chance to show this team still has it and then he did a complete 180 which isn't really his style. Still, I like the additions of Strome and Milano and would like to see them play out the season. I could see both of them being decent pieces moving forward.

I'm ok with trading McMichael if the return is right, especially if they're going to be so thickheaded in his deployment and development. Timo Meier and Nik Ehlers are two guys I'd hope they could pry out of their current situations where I'd be ok sending CMM the other way. They just can't afford to trade McMichael for a guy at or over the age of 30 on a short-term deal. I would trade Eller yesterday and give McMike the year at center. If he's overmatched put Protas there since he's a natural center. They are pretty much at the line of needing to punt on the season and if they cross it, which they're very close to doing, they need to quickly shift their mindset into development mode.

They're pretty far away from contending as is and yet you can see a path still to a plausible retool. They have solid goaltending and quite a few good players still. As the esteemed poet Matt Damon once said, "fortune favors the brave..." though hopefully we don't crash and burn like the crpyto ponzi scheme that Damon was plugging when he said that.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Don’t ask me why but I have a feeling we’re going to see a Conor McMichael for Ryan O’Reilly trade

 

[g00n]

A few weeks ago I wouldn't have said this, but at this point I do think they need to consider this a lost season. What's their best case scenario at this point? A wild card and a first round exit? Carolina and New Jersey are a class above Washington, the Rangers likely are as well. Yeah maybe they can fight Pittsburgh for that last wild card spot, or hope that Toronto implodes or something and snag a spot while finishing 5th in the Metro, but it's bleak.

Assuming this season is lost, what should they do?

-Fire Laviolette. He's not the guy.
-Play McMichael meaningful NHL minutes at center this year so they know what they have going into next season.
-Sell all of their unimportant UFAs (Eller, Johansson, Hathaway, probably Sheary)
-Consider selling one or both of Orlov/Jensen, depending on their trade return. Again I wouldn't have been in favor of this to start the year, but it needs to at least be considered now.

They also need to sell Carlson by the next offseason. If nothing materializes by the TDL that's fine, but they can't keep trotting him out there and expecting things to change. It's clear that he can't keep up in the faster NHL. They need to get what they can ASAP, even if they should have done so a year or two ago.

And then hope for the best w/r/t the draft lottery.

I'm getting closer to this point. Thanksgiving is usually a large enough sample size to determine nearly the entire playoff field, though maybe not the seeding. And right now they're 3pts out of a WC spot with several teams to jump over, and 3-5-2 in their last 10. Goal differential of -7 is 2nd worst in the East.

16 points in 18 games is a 72 point pace. Last year they squeaked into a WC spot with 100pts. 72 would've put them 3rd worst in the East, which is very close to where they are currently.

Not looking good. A firesale may be coming.

But I have a suspicion they'll tinker or stand pat by the TDL if they're still a few points out of a WC spot, figuring "what the hell".

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

His shot is nice. That slap shot on the breakaway reminds me of when Semin would do it lol

You know things have gotten pretty bad when I’ve had more fun watching 2 min of his highlights than most of the Capitals season this year.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Does the KHL allow fans? All I ever see is empty seats.

This kid, he might be a real gem. Let’s hope for continued health.

This is the MHL (major junior league in Russia). It’s like the CHL in Canada if the CHL teams were affiliated to a parent NHL club (like Hershey/SC for Washington).

 

[HTFN]

Prove he didn’t….you brought up Briere of all people lol….not me.

Lmfao nobody panics and acts like they’re too big to validate the things they’re so positive of quite like you.

Even taking the time would be Chara and Siegenthaler all over again, so no. This time you do anything to engage with the content or just stop pretending you’re trying

you know what? It's the holidays so I'll give you one more for free. It's not the easiest thing to find deployment stats for 1998 but I did find faceoff stats. Briere and McMichael played just over 60 NHL games these seasons and nearly identical TOI (718 v. 712 minutes), Briere still took 484 faceoffs to McMichael's 345.

Smart money says they let their center play center. They also let him play in the AHL when they wouldn't develop him anywhere else, lol.

 

[Langway]

Didn't see it initially but LeBrun reported MacLellan wasn't at the GM meetings. Curious...

While I get the idea and value of cashing out on Orlov/Jensen, it's hard to imagine them improving on them in the off-season. Some players shouldn't really be at the mercy of a particular season. I mean, I get it with so many older players locked in already but I have a hard time imagining them being on better footing otherwise next season. Throw in a potential Carlson trade and that's substantial defensive turnover to contend with. Given their time pressure to maintain credibility you wonder how they can square letting so much ride on one season. In the end it seems more likely to cost them, whether it's a lack of development time or perhaps in lost leverage compared to a more decisive tact last off-season. Letting any season be such a bottleneck in planning is probably not a great idea and not a great sign of stability, particularly if ultimately they're still likely to be resistant to the idea of rebuilding if things go south. Flexibility is only as good as it's ultimately utilized and change for the sake of it on the personnel side is unlikely to be some sort of cure-all, particularly in short order.

Trading Orlov/Jensen doesn't preclude them from returning in the off-season I guess but I'm still not too sure they'd end up highly valuing draft picks at this stage over something more tangible and known to them. Draft picks are ideas some way off at best. Whereas however flawed these players do promise to offer near-term stability at least. Short of a drastic shift of the goal posts that should remain valuable for them. Maybe they are ultimately forced into shifting gears to a larger extent but I wonder how much they've really thought through letting so much ride.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Why do people think Oshie doesnt have trade value? We have traded 2nd rounders like every year for players who couldnt carry his jock strap.

Maybe but he seems often injured of late. That may scare some teams off and his contract has some term still.

 

[Brian23]

I would trade Eller yesterday and give McMike the year at center. If he's overmatched put Protas there since he's a natural center.

I'd honestly be fine with Dowd manning the 3C if CMM can't do it, and I think we've got Pilon who can fill that 4C if CMM is really just that awful. I don't think Dowd is that much worse then Eller, and he's certainly cheaper.

As for the Orlov or Jensen trade, I really don't think you can trade either. I think Orlov oughta be a lifer at this point, and he's still arguably our best defender. I'd feel much safer with him at 1LD and Fehervary and AA taking up the next two spots then instead of putting it all on Fehervary and whatever plug they sign.

As for Jensen, I'd agree that re-signing him to big money is an awful decision but I also think you probably have to look into moving Carlson (not that I think they do it) and going down both top RD's is terrifying in this day and age. We had to fill that role with Justin Schultz last time, can't imagine what we'd have to do to fill that now. I'd much rather take Carlson's money and roll it into Jensen and run Jensen and TVR if anything.

But here's the crux of it; the defense has been poor, no? How can you go into next year without some significant changes. Do we blame coaching or do we blame personnel? If it's the former maybe you wanna stand pat and hope a new staff can bring more out of the group. If it's the latter, then I suppose it's just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

 

[SherVaughn30]

If Lavi hates young players so much why has he leaned on Fehervary so much?

McCarthy makes the decisions on d-pairs, not Lavi!

 

[twabby]

Didn't see it initially but LeBrun reported MacLellan wasn't at the GM meetings. Curious...

While I get the idea and value of cashing out on Orlov/Jensen, it's hard to imagine them improving on them in the off-season. Some players shouldn't really be at the mercy of a particular season. I mean, I get it with so many older players locked in already but I have a hard time imagining them being on better footing otherwise next season. Throw in a potential Carlson trade and that's substantial defensive turnover to contend with. Given their time pressure to maintain credibility you wonder how they can square letting so much ride on one season. In the end it seems more likely to cost them, whether it's a lack of development time or perhaps in lost leverage compared to a more decisive tact last off-season. Letting any season be such a bottleneck in planning is probably not a great idea and not a great sign of stability, particularly if ultimately they're still likely to be resistant to the idea of rebuilding if things go south. Flexibility is only as good as it's ultimately utilized and change for the sake of it on the personnel side is unlikely to be some sort of cure-all, particularly in short order.

Trading Orlov/Jensen doesn't preclude them from returning in the off-season I guess but I'm still not too sure they'd end up highly valuing draft picks at this stage over something more tangible and known to them. Draft picks are ideas some way off at best. Whereas however flawed these players do promise to offer near-term stability at least. Short of a drastic shift of the goal posts that should remain valuable for them. Maybe they are ultimately forced into shifting gears to a larger extent but I wonder how much they've really thought through letting so much ride.

I agree that they're unlikely to improve over Orlov and Jensen in the offseason, but you never know.

Six potential trade fits for the Toronto Maple Leafs to replace Jake Muzzin

With clarity on Muzzin’s long-term injury, the Leafs have the cap flexibility to pursue a blueline upgrade immediately.

www.dailyfaceoff.com

Not news, but speculation involving the Leafs and Caps and I do agree both Orlov and Jensen would be excellent fits in Toronto. Certainly the best fits among pending UFAs that I can see. Toronto might be feeling a little desperate given Matthews is a UFA after next year.

Maybe there will be an offer Washington can't refuse is all I'm saying. I was in favor of re-signing both Orlov and Jensen as soon as they were eligible and taking them off the market, but now I think I'm of the opinion that they need to at least wait until after the TDL to re-sign them just in case a team makes a big offer. It's risky because maybe one or both end up walking for nothing if no good deals materialize, but Washington if nothing else has proven that they can keep their pending free agents if they want to.

 

[SherVaughn30]

I'm hearing Trotz is ready to coach again. Some of you might say no to him coming back, but Lavi/McCarthy/Forsythe look toast. The team skates or stands still in the D-zone like idiots, forwards are not helping out the D, they don't slow teams down in the neutral zone, their for-check is slow, they look horrible attacking the net, the PP is completely broken, and on and on and on. OV is a -15. At his pace he will shatter his -35 record!

Lavi has done squadoosh since he got here. I don't care about injuries, as this current roster is terribly under performing with most of this coaching staff. Scott Allen is the only one I would keep and Scott Murray I will let off the hook for the time being as Kuemper/Lindgren are still playing well but the team in front isn't.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Maybe but he seems often injured of late. That may scare some teams off and his contract has some term still.

I coulld see a young team like the Devils wanting a vet with cup exp like Oshie.

 

[pman25]

Sheary will have value for a cap strapped team at the deadline that's for sure. Same for Hathaway, he seems the type some dumb GM will overpay for to gain that "tough to play against" shit stirrer for the playoffs. Eller should be gone if they find someone to take him. All can be replaced easily too.

Sheary --> Snively
Eller --> McMichael / Lapierre
Hathaway --> NAK / Pilon

I'd rather lose with that lineup