Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[g00n]

Because one does not bench a 1st ballot HOFer, duh (francais words, not mine)

In all seriousness tho his potential playing time was blocked by the Chara signing during Fever’s sophomore season. He spent the majority of the year on the taxi squad and then was eventually sent to the AHL.

That would've been his 21 year old year, right?

Fever:

CMM

I don't see a huge gap here in terms of age or NHL experience that one could reasonably say Fever had a ton more seasoning and development to become NHL ready.

Fever played portions of 2 seasons in the AHL at 20 and 21 yrs old. By 22 he was a regular NHL player, WARTS AND ALL.
CMM played part of one season in the AHL at 20 and by 21 he was logging regular NHL games.

D-men are said to take longer to develop yet Fever was established at 22 while CMM seems to be falling back at the same age.

How is 22 too young for one guy but not the other?

47 AHL games separates them...around 2/3 of a season.

Are we saying that's why Lavi has trusted Fever as a 22 year old, but not CMM? Even when Fever gets torched or screws up as bad as CMM? It's the 47 AHL games on the stat sheet that makes all the difference?

I don't think so. It's not age, or AHL games.

It's something else.

And to be clear, by "pipeline failure" I'm not just talking about Hershey, I'm talking about EVERYONE responsible for the pipeline. That includes scouts, GM, President, coaches, etc. for every affiliated team in the organization. BUT it's not the NHL team's job to get these guys ready for the NHL, even if the NHL coaching staff has some input in the development. Their failure becomes an administrative one, not a coaching failure, wrt the pipeline.

 

[g00n]

Because the GM gave him no other choice. Name the vet that sat so Fehervary could play. I don't think anyone thinks Lavi's aversion to youth (or irrational attraction to vets) is a wacky compulsion. He'll play kids that make the choice a no-brainer.

In other words, it was Fever or Irwin, and Lavi's predilection isn't that profound. So he played Fever and TvR on his weak side. How the pairs sorted out chemistry-wise is its own thing.

Assuming that's all there is to it, think about what that means. Lavi is NOT averse to playing young players, otherwise he would've made another Chara type move and put Fever on on nacho duty like they did with Seigs, right?

 

[Jags]

But our top two centers are oranges, and liabilities in the defensive end. You want Dowd double shifting constantly in defensive situations?

No, but dedicating half of our offensive lineup to playing it safe when our 3rd-line wings are now pretty offensively gifted seems like an equally bad idea. Teams that have the luxury of more potential offense should try to leverage it instead of saddling talented wings with a 30-point center that has no knack for offense.

So if trying McMichael is that gargantuan of a defensive risk, let that help you decide which wings play on the 3rd. We have some that play responsible defensive games. And when that line takes defensive draws, let that help you decide which D pair deploys in that situation.

But again, let's not pretend that Eller is Mr. Defensive Stalwart and McMichael is Mr. Shrinking Violet. The kid won't get any better in that capacity unless HE PLAYS HOCKEY SOMEWHERE, and Eller is not 100% the player he used to be.

I still see value in what Eller brings to the table right now.

So do I, and that value isn't insubstantial. He'd be a really good fit on a team that didn't need another gear from him, and there are several of those teams in the NHL. We were one of them a couple years ago when he was playing with the likes of Panik and Hagelin. Eller fit right in then. Now our team is otherwise equipped and Eller is no longer suited to the personnel around him.

We didn't trade him in the offseason. He's here now. So there's no harm in trying something different. He's right there to swap back in if it doesn't work out. It'd be better if he weren't so Lavi wouldn't have that crutch and McMike could get the string of games it takes to sink or swim. But as it is now he gets zero shots, and if he did it'd be just a game (or more likely a small part of one).

Make no mistake, I'm FAR more concerned with the lack of identity and production of our 3rd line than the coddling of McMichael. If the kid sinks, pivot again.

Also we have no way of knowing whether BMac is “trying” to improve perceived weak spots on the roster.

I 100% agree with that. I kept saying that very thing to twabs last year in all the Hertl/Marner talk; that you can't say that a GM isn't trying because we have no way of knowing.

What we know for sure is that our coach isn't trying certain things. That's more the issue right now, IMO. MacLellan isn't blameless in all this. He keeps feeding Lavi the vets he needs to keep ignoring these issues. But I think coaching is the more immediate problem.

 

[g00n]

I've said this before so bear with me...the advantages of being in the press box are still greater for CMM vs being in the AHL. There are far better resources, accommodations, doctors, trainers, analysis, coaching, competition, teammates, etc etc etc....and.....

Which would you rather have?

Less than $1,000 per game to bus around the grinding AHL circuit, or $10,000 per game in the NHL and a chance to crack the lineup on any given night?

Am I missing something?

 

[Jags]

Assuming that's all there is to it, think about what that means. Lavi is NOT averse to playing young players, otherwise he would've made another Chara type move and put Fever on on nacho duty like they did with Seigs, right?

Lavi isn't the GM. I don't think he has that much influence over GM moves. And if he did, maybe the Chara experiment was the last straw. Maybe BMac boxed him in on purpose.

We'll probably never know for sure, but he didn't give Lavi the vet he needed to stall Fehervary, Fever beat out Irwin (if that competition was even a thing), the pairs shook out weirdly, and Fever ended up with top-line minutes. That's how it looked to me. *shrug*

 

[Jags]

I've said this before so bear with me...the advantages of being in the press box are still greater for CMM vs being in the AHL. There are far better resources, accommodations, doctors, trainers, analysis, coaching, competition, teammates, etc etc etc....and.....

View attachment 608274

Which would you rather have?

Less than $1,000 per game to bus around the grinding AHL circuit, or $10,000 per game in the NHL and a chance to crack the lineup on any given night?

Am I missing something?

It's better for McMichael's wallet, sure. And if it was an occasional thing and it looked like he'd play regularly enough (30, 40 games maybe), I'd see the value in that across the board because there are other perks that are good for him, as you pointed out.

But now that it looks that he'll rarely play at all, and maybe never at his natural position, then no. That's not good for him. He needs to play hockey. I don't think the AHL has much, if anything, left to teach him, but he needs to play hockey.

I don't buy that pro athletes are so fragile that their confidence can be easily shattered, but the kid sat a game last week when we were 5 forwards down. When he does play he gets dogshit minutes. He never plays center. There's no upside in any of that for him.

But yeah, the money's gotta be nice.

 

[hb13xchamps]

I've said this before so bear with me...the advantages of being in the press box are still greater for CMM vs being in the AHL. There are far better resources, accommodations, doctors, trainers, analysis, coaching, competition, teammates, etc etc etc....and.....

View attachment 608274

Which would you rather have?

Less than $1,000 per game to bus around the grinding AHL circuit, or $10,000 per game in the NHL and a chance to crack the lineup on any given night?

Am I missing something?

Yes, playing actual hockey games. Playing in GAME situations. Hershey has a former NHL head coach behind the bench. They have quality assistant coaches. They have upgraded facilities, some of the best in the AHL. They have access to video via their video coach. Washington’s own video coach was just recently promoted from Hershey. They have the development coaches there to check up on practice and games a few times a month. They also have access to world class doctors at Hershey medical center. If Washington didn’t find the accommodations suitable, they wouldn’t continue to partner with the Bears. I’m sure Ted can afford an AHL team if he didn’t like Hershey.

Sure, every player would love to be in the NHL, that’s a no brainer. But, the player should also look long term at his overall development as a player. To me, getting valuable practice time and 2-3 games a week/weekend with VALUABLE minutes seems more important. He could work with Hershey’s strength and conditioning coaches to get stronger. He would be able to develop a better defensive game. Hell, they could even give him some PK time to see if that’s something he could do at the NHL level. That’s something Hershey’s staff did with Leason when he was there. There’s just more opportunities for him to improve himself and his game while getting GUARANTEED minutes in all situations.

 

[Rayquaza64]

he cant even crack this roster with brown oshie malenstyn nak wilson backstrom out bro is like the 19th forward at best in the coaching staff’s eyes

 

[g00n]

Yes, playing actual hockey games. Playing in GAME situations. Hershey has a former NHL head coach behind the bench. They have quality assistant coaches. They have upgraded facilities, some of the best in the AHL. They have access to video via their video coach. Washington’s own video coach was just recently promoted from Hershey. They have the development coaches there to check up on practice and games a few times a month. They also have access to world class doctors at Hershey medical center. If Washington didn’t find the accommodations suitable, they wouldn’t continue to partner with the Bears. I’m sure Ted can afford an AHL team if he didn’t like Hershey.

Sure, every player would love to be in the NHL, that’s a no brainer. But, the player should also look long term at his overall development as a player. To me, getting valuable practice time and 2-3 games a week/weekend with VALUABLE minutes seems more important. He could work with Hershey’s strength and conditioning coaches to get stronger. He would be able to develop a better defensive game. Hell, they could even give him some PK time to see if that’s something he could do at the NHL level. That’s something Hershey’s staff did with Leason when he was there. There’s just more opportunities for him to improve himself and his game while getting GUARANTEED minutes in all situations.

No disrespect to you or the Bears org but there is no question every AHL player would rather be in the NHL, especially if they made 10x the money per game. Sorry.

 

[hb13xchamps]

No disrespect to you or the Bears org but there is no question every AHL player would rather be in the NHL, especially if they made 10x the money per game. Sorry.

I literally said that in my post. That’s a no brainer they’d rather be with the big club. That’s not always what’s best for the player.

Everyone points to McMichael’s lone season in the AHL and say he deserves to be in the NHL based on his numbers. The numbers don’t paint the whole picture. COVID year so they played the same 3 teams in Wilkesbarre, Lehigh Valley and the Binghamton Devils. The Devils were bottom 3, if not the worst team in the league and they played in a shitty practice rink. They had no fans until the last few games of the season. Plus, the league was completely watered down due to the presence of the Taxi Squads.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

You positive? Love to see it, if you can find it. Otherwise you'd better shut all the way up about creating false dilemmas while you're patently making up whatever the f*** you want.

Prove he didn’t….you brought up Briere of all people lol….not me.

 

[Jags]

Prove he didn’t….

Pffft.

Tom Brady licked a rhinoceros testicle last Thursday. Prove he didn't.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Pffft.

Tom Brady licked a rhinoceros testicle last Thursday. Prove he didn't.

I believe you. there’s a good chance you were there.

 

[Jags]

I believe you. there’s a good chance you were there.

Damnedest thing I ever saw...

 

[Misery74]

A shakeup is desperately needed, as it was over the Summer. Laviolette needs to be the first to go. He’s incapable of making any changes.

 

[hb13xchamps]

Pffft.

Tom Brady licked a rhinoceros testicle last Thursday. Prove he didn't.

The TB12 method got weird. No wonder Giselle left

 

[Hivemind]

I've mostly been against sending CMM to Hershey because I think he's grown beyond that level, and most of his remaining development has to happen in the NHL. I've been of the opinion that he needs NHL playing time (not AHL playing time or NHL practice time). That being said, I don't think it's a contentious opinion that CMM has not played as well in his (exceedingly limited) usage this season as compared to the previous season. It certainly seems like he could do with an opportunity to "reset" his game and build some confidence. The coaching staff's handling of him this year has seemingly broken him, for the time being, where he's out there trying to play for his life every shift and as a result he's chasing the game rather than letting the game come to him. Hell, we even saw him drop the gloves to try and keep his spot. So I think a 5-10 game trip to the AHL to rebuild some confidence could do him some good.


As for Eller, not only does Laviolette play Eller over McMichael, he also trusts Eller in a number of high leverage situations that no longer match with Eller's skillset (and some that never matched his skillset). How often have we seen 20 out there for the first shift of 3on3 or 4on4 hockey? It makes zero sense. He's obviously a player the coach trusts to the point of favoring him.

 

[Jags]

The TB12 method got weird. No wonder Giselle left

You woulda thought when the rhinoceros walked in that that'd be the weirdest thing to happen all night.

But the night had other plans...

 

[PlushMinus]

Also we have no way of knowing whether BMac is “trying” to improve perceived weak spots on the roster. Just because a trade hasn’t materialized, doesn’t mean he isn’t trying. It’s a known unknown.

I'd love to hear those conversations. The trade value of our players is declining, and quickly.
Other teams just need to sit and watch a few game replays of the last several weeks and they'll run a mile.

Mantha? What value does he have left? Not physical, seems to coast, and is invisble.
Eller - doesn't bring much to the table.
Carlson - stoner D who doesn't play defence
Oshie - great team guy but super fragile. Last season only played 44 games and was career worst PPG of .568
Orlov / Wilson - not on the trading block and wouldn't want them to be

Kuzy - now that could be an interesting trade - but I doubt the old boys club would trade him. And he is capable of being an 80 point 1C, but it's entirely up to him IF and when he'll play that way.

 

[Kuz]

I'd love to hear those conversations. The trade value of our players is declining, and quickly.
Other teams just need to sit and watch a few game replays of the last several weeks and they'll run a mile.

Mantha? What value does he have left? Not physical, seems to coast, and is invisble.
Eller - doesn't bring much to the table.
Carlson - stoner D who doesn't play defence
Oshie - great team guy but super fragile. Last season only played 44 games and was career worst PPG of .568
Orlov / Wilson - not on the trading block and wouldn't want them to be

Kuzy - now that could be an interesting trade - but I doubt the old boys club would trade him. And he is capable of being an 80 point 1C, but it's entirely up to him IF and when he'll play that way.

Eller is still decent statwise with +3 and 7 points in 18 games and quite good on faceoffs. Around 0,4 PPG is pretty normal for him and for a team in need of a 3rd C he should still have value. Obviously would need retaining to be traded as a rental. He is a pretty safe veteran that several teams would like to have on their team in a playoff run.

Mantha is really tanking his value, but the Caps are bad this year so teams might give him the benefit of the doubt. He is playing at a 45 point pace now, but 2 points more would have put him at a 55 point pace which is likely he would have had on a better team. If Caps can get value for him he should be traded if they wont make the playoffs. As he only has 1 more year after this season. If they decide to do a small retool they could take some salary back to get a 1st back.

Oshie is probably really hard to trade and no team would take a chance on him with his contract. With 50% retention they might as he probably will be more than worth 2,8 million as long as he is pretty healthy for the playoffs. Still wouldnt bring a lot back so its better to keep him.

Jensen and Orlov should definetely have some value, but would rather see if Carlson is moveable and keep them both. 7/22 on the powerplay while Carlson was missing and they are now 0/16 after his return. We have a 12.8% PP with Carlson in the lineup vs 31.8% without him. If he cant help the PP what value does he really bring as his defensive problems 5v5 are also a major issue even tough he produces some points 5v5.

Would probably try to hold on to Kuznetsov as he might be very important for Ovechkin's chase for the goalscoring record.

 

[YippieKaey]

Eller is still decent statwise with +3 and 7 points in 18 games and quite good on faceoffs. Around 0,4 PPG is pretty normal for him and for a team in need of a 3rd C he should still have value. Obviously would need retaining to be traded as a rental. He is a pretty safe veteran that several teams would like to have on their team in a playoff run.

Mantha is really tanking his value, but the Caps are bad this year so teams might give him the benefit of the doubt. He is playing at a 45 point pace now, but 2 points more would have put him at a 55 point pace which is likely he would have had on a better team. If Caps can get value for him he should be traded if they wont make the playoffs. As he only has 1 more year after this season. If they decide to do a small retool they could take some salary back to get a 1st back.

Oshie is probably really hard to trade and no team would take a chance on him with his contract. With 50% retention they might as he probably will be more than worth 2,8 million as long as he is pretty healthy for the playoffs. Still wouldnt bring a lot back so its better to keep him.

Jensen and Orlov should definetely have some value, but would rather see if Carlson is moveable and keep them both. 7/22 on the powerplay while Carlson was missing and they are now 0/16 after his return. We have a 12.8% PP with Carlson in the lineup vs 31.8% without him. If he cant help the PP what value does he really bring as his defensive problems 5v5 are also a major issue even tough he produces some points 5v5.

Would probably try to hold on to Kuznetsov as he might be very important for Ovechkin's chase for the goalscoring record.

This actually surprised me. If he's not even crucial to the PP i want him traded like yesterday. That's his thing, and he's not doing it.

 

[Peeri]

This team, even fully healthy is not a good one. Wilson is not some rainmaker that will suddenly make Kuznetsov and Ovechkin start scoring points like last year. Also firing Lavi in the middle of the season doesn't achieve anything, no coach can polish a turd. Let him go in the offseason and find a new coach, preferably some new guy not some dinosaur that still knows only one way to play the game. What about Jukka Jalonen, he has always found a way to coach Finnish national teams to big results, and every single time they were the underdogs. I think its about time that someone would give him a chance here.

 

[Jags]

This team, even fully healthy is not a good one. Wilson is not some rainmaker that will suddenly make Kuznetsov and Ovechkin start scoring points like last year.

Right, but it's an addition to the top of the lineup. Suddenly the revolving door at 1RW slams shut (because Tommy can slam a revolving door just like Chuck Norris), and that trickles down. The wings on the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th get better and the iffiest wing sits. Same thing happens when Oshie comes back (however temporarily, knock wood), and Orlov has a similar effect on D.

Those types of returns are always beneficial. It'll definitely help us win more often, just maybe not often enough.

Also firing Lavi in the middle of the season doesn't achieve anything, no coach can polish a turd.

I don't necessarily disagree, but after what we've seen so far, I'm not sure I want Lavi making those personnel decisions when those players return.

With Oshie and Wilson back, who does he realistically park in the pressbox? Does he concede that we're getting very little from Hathaway and Eller right now and maybe experiment with those spots, or does he just sit kids and newcomers that have played well (Protas, Milano) in favor of vets? Does he go full nutbar and welcome NAK back with open arms? (Doubt it, but wouldn't put it past him at this point.)

I don't think they fire Lavi regardless of all that, but it's okay to dream. Not sure who I'm clamoring for as interim with our dazzling assistant ranks. With my luck we'd get a "Meet your new head coach, Blaine Forsythe!" announcement...

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I bet Eller could net a 3rd or maybe even a 2nd at the TDL. He’s a Stanley Cup champion who would provide valuable center and PK depth to someone. Plus he’s a pending UFA and if the Caps retain he’ll only count $1.75M against the cap. Carlson could net a 1st + A prospect. Sheary and Hathaway both could get mid round picks.

If they’re brutally honest with their situation then they have some assets that other teams would covet as rentals (or not in Carlson’s case). Orlov could bring back a solid return though I’d prefer they re-sign him. They could stockpile a decent amount of assets and go into next summer with a bunch of cap space. Maybe it’ll take another year of sucking but I’d take 1.5 seasons of sucking to do a retool and finish the Ovi window strong rather than watch this old, wounded animal die a slow death. It’ll all depend on how honest they’re willing to be, how aggressive they’re willing to be, and if they can get Ted to buy in.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Why do people think Oshie doesnt have trade value? We have traded 2nd rounders like every year for players who couldnt carry his jock strap.