Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[max21]

Last nights game helps the process of ditching this coaching staff, a late season surge for no reason could give the front office a reason to keep them around

 

[Misery74]

Thank you for debunking revisionist history…

It wasn’t a terrible signing at the time. At the time being the key phrase here. There was no reason to believe his play would drop off a cliff and he’d be an anchor they had to pay to get rid of. $2.75M/year for a middle six winger was more than fair. He was a good player at the time who looked like a better two-way version of Connolly.

It turned out to be a terrible signing but that’s not the same as when you sign a player to a contract and you know before the ink dries it’s a terrible contract like David Backes in Boston, Milan Lucic in Edmonton, Bob in Florida, etc.

Connolly could score though. Panik didn’t have his hands.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I would actually like to read it.

Sure, here's the search results page.

For reference if you ever want to look anything up go to the HF homepage and click on "Search" in the top right corner than click on "Advanced." From there if you click on "Search threads" you can toggle "search titles only" and also choose if you want to search the entire site or just on a certain page, i.e the HF Trades and Rumors section or just on HF Caps.

 

[StrikingDistance]

I just don’t understand. If we had to pay a first round pick to get rid of him, like some here are claiming, it was a terrible signing.

I’m just not sure how this is even debatable.

It was too long. It was too much money. He was more of a two way forward, and a coach that likes two way forwards didn’t even want him.


I would actually like to read it.

Hard stop right there. Stop the debate.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Connolly could score though. Panik didn’t have his hands.

Connolly's career high before coming to Washington was 12 goals and the year before he signed in Washington he scored 9 goals in 71 games for Boston. His career high was 22 which came in Washington and was the same as Panik's career high. Panik was pacing for 15 goals his first year in Washington before Covid shut the season down. Connolly's first year in Washington? 15 goals.

Career goal scoring stats for both.

Conno: 101 goals in 536 GP which is .18 goals per game or 15 goals per 82 games
Panik: 88 goals in 521 GP which is .17 goals per game or 14 goals per 82 games

Pretty much identical in terms of goal scoring and Panik was better defensively.

 

[Misery74]

Hard stop right there. Stop the debate.

Anything of substance to add?

I went back and looked at my post from the thread.

Feel comfortable saying this wasn’t hindsight.

Connolly's career high before coming to Washington was 12 goals and the year before he signed in Washington he scored 9 goals in 71 games for Boston. His career high was 22 which came in Washington was the same as Panik's career high. Panik was pacing for 15 goals his first year in Washington before Covid shut the season down. Connolly's first year in Washington? 15 goals.

Career goal scoring stats for both.

Conno: 101 goals in 536 GP which is .18 goals per game or 15 goals per 82 games
Panik: 88 goals in 521 GP which is .17 goals per game or 14 goals per 82 games

Pretty much identical in terms of goal scoring and Panik was better defensively.

Yeah, but Connolly had a pedigree. I think he was a top 10 pick.

But stat was, you were right on.

 

[g00n]

Hard stop right there. Stop the debate.

There is no debate just dooming.

I don't even have time or energy to scroll past it anymore.

*poof*

Gone.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Yeah, but Connolly had a pedigree. I think he was a top 10 pick.

But stat was, you were right on.

Conno had a slingshot for sure. He had the weirdest release I've ever seen but it was super effective.

Panik wasn't a top pick but he was drafted in the second round so it's not like he was a UDFA out of nowhere who had one good season and got paid for it. I think his pick # might have been the same pick as Kucherov but I'm too lazy to look it up and could be off by a handful or so.

Anyway, I should move on since Panik and Conno aren't on the roster any more. The relevant lesson for today's roster is: be weary of signing big, skilled wingers who are streaky scorers who get force fed top minutes on bad teams.

 

[Misery74]

There is no debate just dooming.

I don't even have time or energy to scroll past it anymore.

*poof*

Gone.

But you did have the time and energy to write this.

So I guess, not gone?

 

[StrikingDistance]

There is no debate just dooming.

I don't even have time or energy to scroll past it anymore.

*poof*

Gone.

I'm typically a fast scroller and can edit out quickly whom I want to read on here. But, if that's someone's first sentence, it's time to go back and do your homework or move on. I'm not trying to single anyone out, but should be basic doctrine for debate.

 

[StrikingDistance]

Anything of substance to add?

I went back and looked at my post from the thread.

Feel comfortable saying this wasn’t hindsight.


Yeah, but Connolly had a pedigree. I think he was a top 10 pick.

But stat was, you were right on.

No, but as the unofficial HFCaps useless gif generator and typically-quiet debate monitor, I had to interject. Now that you went back and read your post, did you read the everyone else's? Cool. That's where I was going.

Proceed.

 

[Misery74]

No, but as the unofficial HFCaps useless gif generator and typically-quiet debate monitor, I had to interject. Now that you went back and read your post, did you read the everyone else's? Cool. That's where I was going.

Proceed.

I try not to speak for anyone else.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I try not to speak for anyone else.

He can….in this instance.

 

[Brian23]

Are you kidding? Signing Richard Panik for four years was always a head scratcher. No hindsight necessary.

If I knew how to search on this website, I would look for the post.

In the immortal words of a goofball.

Confirmed Signing with Link: - [WSH] Richard Panik signs with the Capitals (4 years, $2.75M AAV)

forums.hfboards.com

"Good catch by the Caps IMO. Panik might not be enough for a team looking for top 6 help, but the role the Caps can give him it can work out."

"These goofballs freaking out about years when he'll 31 at the most....Good GMs move a contract like that easily. The AVV is so low..."

"In a world where 32 year old Jay Beagle gets 4x3m, 4x2.5m for a 28 year old Richard Panik is pretty good. The guy averaged a 40 point pace the past 3 seasons. That's perfectly decent for a third liner."

"By the end of this contract, at worst, guy will be a slightly overpaid 4th liner. By the time the 4th year rolls around the cap will probably be atleast 84 million. Solid deal. Our third line is locked up for the next 4 years or so. Weird concept to even think about."

"Panik is an inconsistent power forward with a really good shot and plenty of talent. Twenty to thirty games a year you’ll love him, twenty to thirty games you’ll like him and twenty games he’ll be invisible.


Caps fans he’s more good than bad."

A projected cap hit/signing.

 

[Misery74]

In the immortal words of a goofball.

Confirmed Signing with Link: - [WSH] Richard Panik signs with the Capitals (4 years, $2.75M AAV)

forums.hfboards.com

"Good catch by the Caps IMO. Panik might not be enough for a team looking for top 6 help, but the role the Caps can give him it can work out."

"These goofballs freaking out about years when he'll 31 at the most....Good GMs move a contract like that easily. The AVV is so low..."

"In a world where 32 year old Jay Beagle gets 4x3m, 4x2.5m for a 28 year old Richard Panik is pretty good. The guy averaged a 40 point pace the past 3 seasons. That's perfectly decent for a third liner."

"By the end of this contract, at worst, guy will be a slightly overpaid 4th liner. By the time the 4th year rolls around the cap will probably be atleast 84 million. Solid deal. Our third line is locked up for the next 4 years or so. Weird concept to even think about."

"Panik is an inconsistent power forward with a really good shot and plenty of talent. Twenty to thirty games a year you’ll love him, twenty to thirty games you’ll like him and twenty games he’ll be invisible.


Caps fans he’s more good than bad."

A projected cap hit/signing.

View attachment 673963

Here’s my contribution:

“Four years seems too long.”

As it turns, I was wrong. He got too much money too.

 

[Brian23]

Here’s my contribution:

“Four years seems too long.”

By one year? That's the going rate for middle 6 forwards, no one knew a pandemic was on the horizon that would stagnate the cap and screw the world up. Judging everything simply by it's outcome and not the process (which is judging entirely by hindsight) is now how the real world works.

 

[Holtbyisms]

Why is Fehervary locked in as a top 4 dman?

Your general manager just said it.

 

[Misery74]

By one year? That's the going rate for middle 6 forwards, no one knew a pandemic was on the horizon that would stagnate the cap and screw the world up. Judging everything simply by it's outcome and not the process (which is judging entirely by hindsight) is now how the real world works.

He got cap dumped, twice. We dumped him with two years left. So it was two years too long.

I didn’t like it when it was as signed. Turns out, I was right.

I have been wrong plenty. I didn’t understand the Dowd resigning. I thought it took a spot from a younger player. Dowd has been great.

Panik is now, and always was a swing and a miss.

 

[Holtbyisms]

This is hypothetical and based on the Caps having a new coaching staff for next season. The new guy in charge of coaching defense has fresher ideas and a scheme that works better with the current d-men on the roster. I just don't like McCarthy's philosophy. I think it's more beneficial for the 5-man unit on the ice to play a hybrid zone/man-to-man system. Man-to-man requires that all your players deployed, are fast skaters and are well conditioned. The man-to-man system forces a lot of chasing. If caught in your d-zone too long, this can become very taxing and also confuse players to mark the wrong man or be out of position. Playing zone on the other hand can be less taxing because each of the 5 players are responsible for a portion of the d-zone. It's more structured, but might allow really fast skaters to quickly hit an opening and be able to get a good shot receiving a quick pass. The zone formation might also hinder the quickness of breaking out/counter attacking, after retrieving the puck. With this roster, playing zone coverage in the d-zone would eliminate the high danger chances the Caps give up. I think it would also lower the amount of shots given up, which would take some pressure off the goalies.


I would say because potentially he can stay locked up in the 2nd pairing. To me he doesn't fit playing as a 5/6 guy.

I definitely think a new system could help but anybody expecting this to morph into a cup contending blue line is in for a let down if another Gustafson type singing is the #6. Unless they plan on sending Lappy and McMichael and draft capital for a 1st pairing guy were not going to see much improvement outside of some system support.

 

[twabby]

From the recent NHLPA poll, the only Capital selected was Wilson for this question:

I bet that trade value is still really high.

 

[g00n]

I bet that trade value is still really high.

 

[twabby]

But for real they just dealt Orlov because he was asking for a long-term deal at age 31. Wilson is likely going to command even more than Orlov given his reputation around the league, though he'll be 30 instead of 31. Wilson also is coming off a torn ACL and is not as important as Orlov was when it comes to on-ice impact.

I bet they could get something like the Tkachuk return if they chose to trade him with an extension in place, though with a lean toward younger roster players and draft picks to flip instead of established (but very good) older players like Weegar and Huberdeau.

Or I guess they could sign Wilson to an 8 year, $64 million contract that covers his ages 30-37 seasons so that he can be the captain in the year 2026 (that's if Ovechkin decides to retire then). Seems kind of silly though, but I am but a humble mazer who doesn't watch the games.

 

[g00n]

But for real they just dealt Orlov because he was asking for a long-term deal at age 31. Wilson is likely going to command even more than Orlov given his reputation around the league, though he'll be 30 instead of 31. Wilson also is coming off a torn ACL and is not as important as Orlov was when it comes to on-ice impact.

I bet they could get something like the Tkachuk return if they chose to trade him with an extension in place, though with a lean toward younger roster players and draft picks to flip instead of established (but very good) older players like Weegar and Huberdeau.

Or I guess they could sign Wilson to an 8 year, $64 million contract that covers his ages 30-37 seasons so that he can be the captain in the year 2026 (that's if Ovechkin decides to retire then). Seems kind of silly though, but I am but a humble mazer who doesn't watch the games.

Orlov wanted a million year contract. We don't know how much term Wilson will take.

"not as important as Orlov when it comes to on-ice impact"

lol u trollin

 

[twabby]

Orlov wanted a million year contract. We don't know how much term Wilson will take.

"not as important as Orlov when it comes to on-ice impact"

lol u trollin

Why wouldn't Wilson ask for a long-term deal? He'll be 30 at the expiration of his current deal, so a new 5 year deal takes him to 35. Doubtful he'd want his next contract to expire at age 35 when the 35+ contract rules come into play and teams start balking at handing out contracts. Similarly, would he really accept a 4 or fewer year deal? That's just lighting money on fire.

I think minimum he asks and receives a 6 year deal in which case the AAV will be higher than a 7 or 8 year deal. But I think he could easily get the full 7 on the open market, and could get the full 8 if he is re-signed by the Capitals or extended by a team that trades for him.

In terms of impact I guess we'll just agree to disagree, but I am hardly on an island when I opine that Orlov has been the more valuable player over the years. For you to dismiss that opinion as trolling conveys a sense of hubris that our pal Odysseus would be in awe of!

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

But for real they just dealt Orlov because he was asking for a long-term deal at age 31. Wilson is likely going to command even more than Orlov given his reputation around the league, though he'll be 30 instead of 31. Wilson also is coming off a torn ACL and is not as important as Orlov was when it comes to on-ice impact.

I bet they could get something like the Tkachuk return if they chose to trade him with an extension in place, though with a lean toward younger roster players and draft picks to flip instead of established (but very good) older players like Weegar and Huberdeau.

Or I guess they could sign Wilson to an 8 year, $64 million contract that covers his ages 30-37 seasons so that he can be the captain in the year 2026 (that's if Ovechkin decides to retire then). Seems kind of silly though, but I am but a humble mazer who doesn't watch the games.

I think a conversation needs to be had, and the most important question to Wilson should be, “Do you want to be the guy that takes the C from Ovechkin?”.

With that, comes a retirement deal option, so what longterm deal is Wilson willing to take to finish his career here as Captain, and help us keep the AAV down so we can rebuild on the quicker side (hopefully)? $8 per is too much (today)….for me.

If he says no, then I at least entertain the unthinkable…