Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[um]

Moving Wilson would be doing it a year early before a year late. If we dont have an extension before the deadline as hard as it will be we have to move on.

Maybe after the Leafs choke we can pry away Nylander with Wilson +

Wishful thinking, I know.

 

[pman25]

Both Simmonds and Lucic crashed pretty hard right around 30, they certainly gotta think about cashing in with Wilson. I doubt it would happen, but those are two pretty decent comparables and both of those guys were better goal scorers than Wilson

 

[Pigskin]

Maybe after the Leafs choke we can pry away Nylander + with Wilson

Wishful thinking, I know.

fixed it for you

 

[um]

fixed it for you

Don’t think you did

 

[usiel]

Both Simmonds and Lucic crashed pretty hard right around 30, they certainly gotta think about cashing in with Wilson. I doubt it would happen, but those are two pretty decent comparables and both of those guys were better goal scorers than Wilson

GLASS HALF FULL!

 

[HTFN]

Dominant in what way? It’s hard for me to project him being dominant when he’s never really been dominant from a goal differential point of view (though he’s been good), he’s coming off a significant injury, he’s going to be entering his 30s soon, and he’s been “neutered” by the league as many fans have described.

It’s just tough for me to see keeping Wilson making sense unless he takes a huge discount on his market value and I’ll believe that when I see it.

That's you misunderstanding what dominant means in a game like this. Goal differential is sweet but it won't make you poop your pants on a dump in.

 

[twabby]

That's you misunderstanding what dominant means in a game like this. Goal differential is sweet but it won't make you poop your pants on a dump in.

Unfortunately hockey games are judged by which team scores more goals, not by which team forces the other to expel more fecal matter.

 

[usiel]

I've had an epiphany that the one of the wars without end is the eye test versus stats sports fan.

And yes it is the good/evil versus evil/good.

I just hope when the grim reaper comes for us all he will let us know how much time as wasted in these debates.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

What’s a guy like Jay Beagle in is prime in fancy stats? I would guess not great but we all knew how good he was.

 

[Corby78]

The real question is, do fancy stats prove the eye test is flawed? Or are fancy stats unable to accurately capture intangible effects on a game (like pooping pants on dump in)?

I have my opinion, but I’ll hang up and listen.

 

[YippieKaey]

But for real they just dealt Orlov because he was asking for a long-term deal at age 31. Wilson is likely going to command even more than Orlov given his reputation around the league, though he'll be 30 instead of 31. Wilson also is coming off a torn ACL and is not as important as Orlov was when it comes to on-ice impact.

I bet they could get something like the Tkachuk return if they chose to trade him with an extension in place, though with a lean toward younger roster players and draft picks to flip instead of established (but very good) older players like Weegar and Huberdeau.

Or I guess they could sign Wilson to an 8 year, $64 million contract that covers his ages 30-37 seasons so that he can be the captain in the year 2026 (that's if Ovechkin decides to retire then). Seems kind of silly though, but I am but a humble mazer who doesn't watch the games.

Really? Tkachuk is a 24 year old elite point producing winger and Tom Wilson is like a 50 isch point 29 year old player at the most. I dont think they would get anything like that return. But if they would, i say do the trade though.

 

[YippieKaey]

If the team wants to stay somewhat competitive for Ovi whilst also rebuilding they need to take a chance on some youngsters and trade some beloved parts. Something like:

Ovi-Strome-Brown
Milano-CMM-X
Protas-Bäckström-Sheary
NAK-Dowd-X

Fever-Carlson
Sandin-Jensen
AA-TvR

Iorio
Snively

Kuemper
X

Obviously this includes some good value trades for Mantha, Kuzy & Wilson.

 

[Ridley Simon]

If the team wants to stay somewhat competitive for Ovi whilst also rebuilding they need to take a chance on some youngsters and trade some beloved parts. Something like:

Ovi-Strome-Brown
Milano-CMM-X
Protas-Bäckström-Sheary
NAK-Dowd-X

Fever-Carlson
Sandin-Jensen
AA-TvR

Iorio
Snively

Kuemper
X

Obviously this includes some good value trades for Mantha, Kuzy & Wilson.

That team is going to lose a LOT of games. I also noticed Oshie is gone as well.

I’d wager that’s a bottom 10 NHL team. At best.

 

[YippieKaey]

The real question is, do fancy stats prove the eye test is flawed? Or are fancy stats unable to accurately capture intangible effects on a game (like pooping pants on dump in)?

I have my opinion, but I’ll hang up and listen.

This should actually not be completely impossible to calculate.

Like how many times does the opposing d-pair perform badly on retrievals from dump ins when forward X is on the forecheck. Or something. Would be a fun stat.

That team is going to lose a LOT of games. I also noticed Oshie is gone as well.

I’d wager that’s a bottom 10 NHL team. At best.

Yeah. As opposed to this season when we're what, a bottom 12 NHL team who is capped out, not getting high draft picks and no superstar prospects on the roster. I'll take that any day.

 

[g00n]

Unfortunately hockey games are judged by which team scores more goals, not by which team forces the other to expel more fecal matter.

This has to be bait or a joke, given how reliant you are on imaginary goals and Xetc.

Aside from that intimidation and disruption are real, just like any other defensive tactic.

Anyone who's actually watched a single game of hockey in their lives (not you) has seen several instances of defense leading to offense.

So disruption = offense.

Checkmate.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

The real question is, do fancy stats prove the eye test is flawed? Or are fancy stats unable to accurately capture intangible effects on a game (like pooping pants on dump in)?

I have my opinion, but I’ll hang up and listen.

“All models are wrong, some are useful.” — George Box, famous British statistician

Just like in stock trading, sports can’t be broken down into purely numbers. There’s a human and behavioral component to life, sports, the economy, etc that AI, algorithms, models, etc haven’t been able to account for and likely won’t be able to account for. It’s why momentum funds and quant funds aren’t perfect and why there are still market crashes.

Statisticians, economists, weathermen, and stock brokers are the best professionals in the world at being wrong about telling you what’s going to happen but being really good about telling you why they were wrong and why it wasn’t their fault. There’s a common element to all of those professions.

One of the problems with this discussion is the idea that only one group can be right. Just like with everything in life there is nuance and context that need to be considered. You can’t run a team based solely on models. If you did, and analytics were perfect, there would never be a draft bust. You’d never pay a dollar more than a player was worth. You’d know the exact moment you should get rid of a player. There would also be no advantage to using models because everyone would have them and there would be no arbitrage opportunities.

It’s pretty clear that using analytics in your decision making process is crucial. Data helps you uncover opportunities, avoid potential landmines, and make better decisions. Teams that use data as part of their process aren’t perfect but they’re definitely better off than teams that don’t. That said, to say a player doesn’t have value because one specific measurement says he’s not good at one thing is just as misinformed as not using data at all.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I think we extend Willy but incase we cannot Im trying to think what trade for Wilson this offseason wouldnt piss me off.
24 1st no protections
25 1st no protections
good NHL player on rookie contract

This is hard. That doesnt seem like enough

 

[trick9]

Moneypuck lists our Playoff chances @ 0.3 %.

Odds of getting Connor Bedard @ 1.9 %.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

“All models are wrong, some are useful.” — George Box, famous British statistician

Just like in stock trading, sports can’t be broken down into purely numbers. There’s a human and behavioral component to life, sports, the economy, etc that AI, algorithms, models, etc haven’t been able to account for and likely won’t be able to account for. It’s why momentum funds and quant funds aren’t perfect and why there are still market crashes.

Statisticians, economists, weathermen, and stock brokers are the best professionals in the world at being wrong about telling you what’s going to happen but being really good about telling you why they were wrong and why it wasn’t their fault. There’s a common element to all of those professions.

One of the problems with this discussion is the idea that only one group can be right. Just like with everything in life there is nuance and context that need to be considered. You can’t run a team based solely on models. If you did, and analytics were perfect, there would never be a draft bust. You’d never pay a dollar more than a player was worth. You’d know the exact moment you should get rid of a player. There would also be no advantage to using models because everyone would have them and there would be no arbitrage opportunities.

It’s pretty clear that using analytics in your decision making process is crucial. Data helps you uncover opportunities, avoid potential landmines, and make better decisions. Teams that use data as part of their process aren’t perfect but they’re definitely better off than teams that don’t. That said, to say a player doesn’t have value because one specific measurement says he’s not good at one thing is just as misinformed as not using data at all.

Yes to all this. Additionally, the eye-test/traditional scouting is still crucial in high level sports. We're seeing it a lot in the most dominant analytical sports playground, baseball. Take pitching prospects as an example. The baseball community is pretty much in agreement that K-rate is crucial in the modern game, and that spin rate on pitches heavily influences K-rate. The stats-only approach would then be to only draft/sign guys with high spin rates. Some teams do operate that way, but others take advantage of the inefficiency of those teams, and use traditional scouting/the eye test to determine "can increase this guy's spin rate?"

I think both the eye test and analytical models are valuable tools for sports programs/franchises. Like any other tools, they require a level of talent/skill to maximize, and are often misused, Ignoring one out of principle is downright negligent.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I think we extend Willy but incase we cannot Im trying to think what trade for Wilson this offseason wouldnt piss me off.
24 1st no protections
25 1st no protections
good NHL player on rookie contract

This is hard. That doesnt seem like enough

It’s not enough if you want to win now unless you flip those assets or unless you use that cap space to bring in another player. Both of those are certainly possible scenarios but require more than one dance partner which makes it tougher to pull off. Also who are you trading him to? If it’s Montreal and they’re going to suck for a few more years then the firsts are more attractive than if you’re trading him to say, Colorado or Toronto where those picks could be in the high 20s.

A Wilson trade is tough because any team that wants him is going to want him as a finishing piece and they’re not going to want to part with a core piece to get him so they’ll want to provide futures which doesn’t help Washington retool now (in a vacuum). Toronto may covet him if they get bounced again but then you’re likely looking at something like a Nylander for Wilson swap. I wouldn’t want to trade him in-division but New Jersey is a team that would covet Wilson. Wilson is perfect for a team like Carolina too. Would players like Bratt, Mercer, Jarvis, or Necas be on the table for Wilson? All of those guys would be terrific additions to Washington’s top six.

 

[twabby]

I don't know that I ever said Wilson isn't valuable. Hell even The Models say he's valuable! I wouldn't dare contradict The Models!

He's just not a superstar or a guy you keep at pretty much all costs. Washington needs superstars especially at forward and especially at center. Right now they have one superstar and he's going to be 38 next year. How do they acquire a superstar forward this offseason? There are no UFAs to acquire that fit that bill. So what pieces do they have that carry value in a trade?

As I see it they have only a few trade chips that carry any significant value. One of them is Wilson and he is almost certainly the most valuable trade piece they have. One of them is this year's first round draft pick and then of course their first round picks in the future. Maybe John Carlson still carries substantial value but I don't see it after this year and his injury. And I don't see any of their prospects carrying much value.

I guess I'm still not seeing the difference between this situation and the Orlov situation, and why the decisions should be different. Assuming Wilson isn't planning on taking a huge market discount (and why would he, especially given the long-term trajectory of the team?), I think trading Wilson makes even more sense than trading Orlov, and trading Orlov made a lot of sense!

 

[Brian23]

I guess I'm still not seeing the difference between this situation and the Orlov situation, and why the decisions should be different.

I think you're underselling the age difference there. He is gonna be 32 and wanted a 7 or 8 year deal. Even if Wilson wants the same, I'd argue there's a large difference between paying a 30 year old till they're 37/38 and a 32 year old till their 39/40.

But, I wouldn't give Wilson a 7/8 year deal anyway. I feel like GMBM has seemingly put 35 as his stop point for how late he'll go in a contract with anyone recently. That would line up close to what they wanted out of Orlov, 3 or 4 year deal.

 

[um]

I think we extend Willy but incase we cannot Im trying to think what trade for Wilson this offseason wouldnt piss me off.
24 1st no protections
25 1st no protections
good NHL player on rookie contract

This is hard. That doesnt seem like enough

Wilson will have only one year left. That does hurt his value.

 

[um]

If the team wants to stay somewhat competitive for Ovi whilst also rebuilding they need to take a chance on some youngsters and trade some beloved parts. Something like:

Ovi-Strome-Brown
Milano-CMM-X
Protas-Bäckström-Sheary
NAK-Dowd-X

Fever-Carlson
Sandin-Jensen
AA-TvR

Iorio
Snively

Kuemper
X

Obviously this includes some good value trades for Mantha, Kuzy & Wilson.

I don't get why you keep Brown and move Wilson.

Wilson is the younger player and 3 times the player.

 

[Brian23]