Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[Ridley Simon]

What changes can they really make there? Carlson ain't going anywhere, Jensen and TVR just resigned so they're a lock. Sandin is BMACs "I'm retooling" savior. Fehervary is looked at as a young top 4 by BMAC...he's getting resigned. That leaves you one spot to rejuvenate a bad defense. So plug in your best bargain bin LD UFA who can put up points like Gostisbehere/Gustafson(again) and rinse/repeat the same bad defensive breakdowns night in and night out we have now.

Jensen and Carlson have both been out. The top pair has been TVR and Sandin?

I think they will somehow add a top 4 d-man to replace AA or Fever. TVR and the remaining guy will be bottom pair.

I’d personally want Orlov back. But I’m not holding my breath.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

But for real they just dealt Orlov because he was asking for a long-term deal at age 31. Wilson is likely going to command even more than Orlov given his reputation around the league, though he'll be 30 instead of 31. Wilson also is coming off a torn ACL and is not as important as Orlov was when it comes to on-ice impact.

I bet they could get something like the Tkachuk return if they chose to trade him with an extension in place, though with a lean toward younger roster players and draft picks to flip instead of established (but very good) older players like Weegar and Huberdeau.

Or I guess they could sign Wilson to an 8 year, $64 million contract that covers his ages 30-37 seasons so that he can be the captain in the year 2026 (that's if Ovechkin decides to retire then). Seems kind of silly though, but I am but a humble mazer who doesn't watch the games.

I’m not saying your argument isn’t valid but I think you’re being disingenuous when comparing ages. Orlov will be 32 before next season. Wilson will be 29 (he’s 28 until next week) for almost the entirety of next season. You’re posting like they’re a year apart in age.

 

[twabby]

I’m not saying your argument isn’t valid but I think you’re being disingenuous when comparing ages. Orlov will be 32 before next season. Wilson will be 29 (he’s 28 until next week) for almost the entirety of next season. You’re posting like they’re a year apart in age.

I was looking at Evolving Hockey for their ages, so I guess rounding made it seem like a year difference rather than the actual 1 year, 8 month difference in ages when they start their new contracts. Still, that's a big yikes from me to just auto-extend Wilson at age 30.

They have to thread a very fine needle to make this retool-on-the-fly work. Trading Orlov made sense because he carried value around the league and his contract demands combined with his projected future impact just didn't make sense for Washington. I think the same can be said for Wilson, except I bet he carries even more value around the league, his contract demands will likely be higher, and his projected impact (IMO) will be less than Orlov's going forward.

I guess I think the team should be thinking about much more than who the captain will be in 2026 when approaching Wilson's next contract. Because we all know the answer to that already: it's going to be Alex Ovechkin (if he returns) or Connor Bedard. They need to be thinking about how to bring in some legit star talent, whether it's diamonds in the rough like I think Sandin will be or whether it's just a blockbuster type trade like I think they could pull off with Wilson if they have the courage to do something difficult.

 

[Langway]

The dilemma with Wilson is that the decision needs to be made this summer and he's heading into it a diminished player since coming back. The boxcars are fine but the underlying play and defense have been bad.

He probably should take a 7 year offer at around $6-7M if offered. Because it's hard to say if an off-season training reverts him back into a physical force again. He should be better but to what extent? Over time there's a lot of risk with this type of player as mileage piles up.

One thing is for sure: they're not balking at going beyond three years with him. I know Orlov is older but for Strome to bank five years based on half a season and to draw such a hard line on what's been a soldier for them will always be puzzling. The AAV also may have been an issue unless they maxed out the years but who cares really? Easy for me to say but I'm not sure I'll ever really get that decision. To subtract such a glue guy defensively won't prove easy to replace at a time when they don't have a great deal else to hang their hat on.

 

[twabby]

The dilemma with Wilson is that the decision needs to be made this summer and he's heading into it a diminished player since coming back. The boxcars are fine but the underlying play and defense have been bad.

I definitely agree with this part. They can't go into next season with Wilson on their roster and without an extension in place. Either get him extended for a team-friendly deal or trade him now before his aura fades. They can't risk losing him for nothing or for some meager return at next year's TDL.

 

[Drakon]

And why did we need that cap space? Because Mantha had a much bigger contract.

Because Backstrom's extension was kicking in actually.

 

[Raikkonen]

Sandin instead of Orlov is a downgrade. Significant one now, but Orlov in 3 years down the road could become a problem. And do post-Ovi Caps need this type of problem?

It'd be the same we see now with 19/77.

Now what they can do with Sandin? Trade him?! Sign Orlov and trade one of 3/57? It does look that they can go with Alexeyev as #6 and Iorio as first callup, sign someone to ride the pine and nothing more. I expect just that.

But that's a downgrade with all the RDs getting a year older.

Wilson... what's the number everyone will be comfortable with? 7M x 8 years? For what? For being captain and former on ice deterrent? That's Oshie situation all over again in a post-Ovi era.

I don't know. I guess there will be enough cap space for that at least.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I definitely agree with this part. They can't go into next season with Wilson on their roster and without an extension in place. Either get him extended for a team-friendly deal or trade him now before his aura fades. They can't risk losing him for nothing or for some meager return at next year's TDL.

Some meager return? Every single playoff team would be tripping over themselves to trade for Wilson next year at the TDL. He’d probably be #1 on TSN’s trade board (unless there’s a disgruntled franchise player that wants out) and he’d fetch a haul.

What they can’t do is go past the TDL next year without an extension, especially if they’re out of the playoff picture. They have about a year to figure things out with Tom. I suspect they will overpay to keep him because every team wants a Tom Wilson and nobody else has one. I do have concerns about his longevity but by the time his contract becomes a problem Ovi is gone anyway as are the contracts for Kuznetsov, Oshie, and Backstrom. I mean, there’s a good possibility not a single player currently on the roster would still be here when Tom’s next contract expires. Having one slightly overpaid forward isn’t a big deal if you don’t have boat anchor contracts everywhere else. I think they’ll write off some of his underlying struggles this year as a result of having two major injuries and expect an improvement after a full off-season of training.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Wilson
Backstrom
Brown
Carlson
Oshie

All 5 could be back and in a better place than they are right now. That’s a lot of players to rebound.

And that’s not even talking Mantha or Kuznetsov.

 

[g00n]

Silly to even think about trading players on any kind of recent downtick if we're about to change coaches, which we probably are.

 

[twabby]

Some meager return? Every single playoff team would be tripping over themselves to trade for Wilson next year at the TDL. He’d probably be #1 on TSN’s trade board (unless there’s a disgruntled franchise player that wants out) and he’d fetch a haul.

What they can’t do is go past the TDL next year without an extension, especially if they’re out of the playoff picture. They have about a year to figure things out with Tom. I suspect they will overpay to keep him because every team wants a Tom Wilson and nobody else has one. I do have concerns about his longevity but by the time his contract becomes a problem Ovi is gone anyway as are the contracts for Kuznetsov, Oshie, and Backstrom. I mean, there’s a good possibility not a single player currently on the roster would still be here when Tom’s next contract expires. Having one slightly overpaid forward isn’t a big deal if you don’t have boat anchor contracts everywhere else. I think they’ll write off some of his underlying struggles this year as a result of having two major injuries and expect an improvement after a full off-season of training.

Why limit their options to teams that are buyers at the TDL next year that can fit Wilson (with or without retention) and aren’t on Wilson’s no-trade list when they could open up the bidding this offseason (minus the 7 teams on his no-trade list) and have more leverage? If Washington doesn’t find a deal they like they can always just punt it until the TDL and that might make teams pony up even more.

Don’t get me wrong I think Wilson would still return a first round pick+ next year at the TDL but I think he could get significantly more this offseason, especially if an extension is in place. This also allows them to flip Wilson for pieces that can play next year and potentially make them competitive again as soon as next year, rather than wasting next year and waiting until 2024-25 to reap the benefits of a Wilson trade.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Why limit their options to teams that are buyers at the TDL next year that can fit Wilson (with or without retention) and aren’t on Wilson’s no-trade list when they could open up the bidding this offseason (minus the 7 teams on his no-trade list) and have more leverage? If Washington doesn’t find a deal they like they can always just punt it until the TDL and that might make teams pony up even more.

Don’t get me wrong I think Wilson would still return a first round pick+ next year at the TDL but I think he could get significantly more this offseason, especially if an extension is in place. This also allows them to flip Wilson for pieces that can play next year and potentially make them competitive again as soon as next year, rather than wasting next year and waiting until 2024-25 to reap the benefits of a Wilson trade.

The only way they trade Wilson this summer is if he tells them to get totally f***ed and that there’s not a chance he re-signs with them or if some dunce like Holland says, “Give me Wilson, Kuznetsov, and your 3rd round pick and I’ll give you Draisatl.” Absent of that happening they’re not going to entertain trading him for some magic beans. They likely wouldn’t entertain trading him for another player either as they saw the hole he left in their lineup this year and I doubt there are many players that would be both available and that they think would be an upgrade next season over Wilson.

Stranger things have happened but I think he’s one of the three or so least likely players to get dealt. I also don’t think they’re going to put a deadline on it for this year. They’ll take the summer to try and hammer out a deal and they’ll have contingency plans for next season based on them being good or not.

 

[Corby78]

Silly to even think about trading players on any kind of recent downtick if we're about to change coaches, which we probably are.

I hope you're right. While the players/roster have been an issue as well, Lavi has done nothing with the team or his staff that instills confidence in me.

 

[Raikkonen]

Wilson
Backstrom
Brown
Carlson
Oshie

All 5 could be back and in a better place than they are right now. That’s a lot of players to rebound.

And that’s not even talking Mantha or Kuznetsov.

Someone has to go. My #1 target is Mantha obviously.

 

[twabby]

The only way they trade Wilson this summer is if he tells them to get totally f***ed and that there’s not a chance he re-signs with them or if some dunce like Holland says, “Give me Wilson, Kuznetsov, and your 3rd round pick and I’ll give you Draisatl.” Absent of that happening they’re not going to entertain trading him for some magic beans. They likely wouldn’t entertain trading him for another player either as they saw the hole he left in their lineup this year and I doubt there are many players that would be both available and that they think would be an upgrade next season over Wilson.

Stranger things have happened but I think he’s one of the three or so least likely players to get dealt. I also don’t think they’re going to put a deadline on it for this year. They’ll take the summer to try and hammer out a deal and they’ll have contingency plans for next season based on them being good or not.

I agree he is very unlikely to be dealt. It’d be exceptionally bold and unconventional.

That being said, how much have they really missed him this year? Not that he was the cause of their fall this year but he hasn’t really been a solution either. He’s a good but not great player who plays probably the least important position on the ice. I’m not saying trade him for magic beans but if they can flip him or his return for a #1C or a more complete #1D then they have to do it.

I guess I’m not sure what keeping Wilson really accomplishes at this point if their goal is a serious retool. He doesn’t drive a line even at his best and his cap hit is only going up after next year. What other assets can they use to make impactful moves this offseason? Trading the #11-#15 overall pick would be a start but it’s not going to be enough. I doubt McMichael or Lapierre carry much value any more. Carlson’s value has never been lower. So what else do they really have?

 

[Calicaps]

I agree he is very unlikely to be dealt. It’d be exceptionally bold and unconventional.

That being said, how much have they really missed him this year? Not that he was the cause of their fall this year but he hasn’t really been a solution either. He’s a good but not great player who plays probably the least important position on the ice. I’m not saying trade him for magic beans but if they can flip him or his return for a #1C or a more complete #1D then they have to do it.

I guess I’m not sure what keeping Wilson really accomplishes at this point if their goal is a serious retool. He doesn’t drive a line even at his best and his cap hit is only going up after next year. What other assets can they use to make impactful moves this offseason? Trading the #11-#15 overall pick would be a start but it’s not going to be enough. I doubt McMichael or Lapierre carry much value any more. Carlson’s value has never been lower. So what else do they really have?

you pointed out that he's the Caps' player most cited as "don't want to play against but would love on my team" so turning around and saying he's not that important is odd.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I agree he is very unlikely to be dealt. It’d be exceptionally bold and unconventional.

That being said, how much have they really missed him this year? Not that he was the cause of their fall this year but he hasn’t really been a solution either. He’s a good but not great player who plays probably the least important position on the ice. I’m not saying trade him for magic beans but if they can flip him or his return for a #1C or a more complete #1D then they have to do it.

I guess I’m not sure what keeping Wilson really accomplishes at this point if their goal is a serious retool. He doesn’t drive a line even at his best and his cap hit is only going up after next year. What other assets can they use to make impactful moves this offseason? Trading the #11-#15 overall pick would be a start but it’s not going to be enough. I doubt McMichael or Lapierre carry much value any more. Carlson’s value has never been lower. So what else do they really have?

I know we all fall prey to the “what have you done for me lately” phenomena of life … but come on.

Sometimes you can outsmart yourself. Assuming Wilson is no longer a difference maker smacks of this, IMO.

Kuznetsov? Sure.
Mantha? Yep
Backstrom? I get it.

Wilson and Carlson (and Jensen even) will be back next year. IMO. And that will be a big deal for how many wins this team gets.

 

[g00n]

I feel like people are viewing players like Wilson and Oshie with tinted lenses. I'm sure they think the opposite is true for people like me who view them favorably.

But you can't argue with the fact that Wilson is coming off of major surgery and is still on a 28 goal pace for an 82 game season. His assists trend similarly. This is even better than his career highs last year.

Oshie is on an identical points pace...28 goals against a career high of 33 a few years ago. Of course the problem with Oshie is he's had a hard time staying on the ice the last 3 years, and his +/- seems to be cratering possibly as a result of having to change his style of play. This also represents his 3 years under Lavi so that may not be a coincidence, either.

Do not bail on these blood and guts, heart and soul players so easily. Especially if a new coach is about to land.

You'll probably regret it.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I feel like people are viewing players like Wilson and Oshie with tinted lenses. I'm sure they think the opposite is true for people like me who view them favorably.

But you can't argue with the fact that Wilson is coming off of major surgery and is still on a 28 goal pace for an 82 game season. His assists trend similarly. This is even better than his career highs last year.

Oshie is on an identical points pace...28 goals against a career high of 33 a few years ago. Of course the problem with Oshie is he's had a hard time staying on the ice the last 3 years, and his +/- seems to be cratering possibly as a result of having to change his style of play. This also represents his 3 years under Lavi so that may not be a coincidence, either.

Do not bail on these blood and guts, heart and soul players so easily. Especially if a new coach is about to land.

You'll probably regret it.

Hell if we can dump Mantha salary we could prolly bring back Orlov. But im not sure who would try to help us? The Blues? They can have Vrana and Mantha lmao

 

[Brian23]

Someone brought it up earlier, but I can't seem to find it, but I also think the defensive responsibility of this team could rebound in a big way. They seem to play entirely man right now, which I think is an outdated defense ill suited for the older and slower members on our team. Going back to a more hybrid approach sans Trotz would probably have them rebound in the defensive side of things, potentially fixing that +/- trend Goon was talking about with someone like Oshie.

But really, I just wanna bitch about systems again.

 

[twabby]

I know we all fall prey to the “what have you done for me lately” phenomena of life … but come on.

Sometimes you can outsmart yourself. Assuming Wilson is no longer a difference maker smacks of this, IMO.

Kuznetsov? Sure.
Mantha? Yep
Backstrom? I get it.

Wilson and Carlson (and Jensen even) will be back next year. IMO. And that will be a big deal for how many wins this team gets.

His best three year period was this, his ages 25-27 seasons and immediately prior to injury:

This is the profile of a good, but not great or essential player. And in his next contract he’ll be entering his 30s after suffering a serious knee injury.

It’s not recency bias to state that Wilson isn’t uniquely positioned among players in the league when it comes to overall impact. Stylistically? Sure, he’s a unicorn. But substance matters and based on the substance of his game he’s not a guy you hold onto at all costs when his reputation around the league probably makes his trade value through the roof.

 

[Ridley Simon]

His best three year period was this, his ages 25-27 seasons and immediately prior to injury:

View attachment 674128

This is the profile of a good, but not great or essential player. And in his next contract he’ll be entering his 30s after suffering a serious knee injury.

It’s not recency bias to state that Wilson isn’t uniquely positioned among players in the league when it comes to overall impact. Stylistically? Sure, he’s a unicorn. But substance matters and based on the substance of his game he’s not a guy you hold onto at all costs when his reputation around the league probably makes his trade value through the roof.

That’s not the point though. You are assuming he cannot be dominant. I think he will be next season.

Dominant as he was before. And top 1RW

 

[twabby]

That’s not the point though. You are assuming he cannot be dominant. I think he will be next season.

Dominant as he was before. And top 1RW

Dominant in what way? It’s hard for me to project him being dominant when he’s never really been dominant from a goal differential point of view (though he’s been good), he’s coming off a significant injury, he’s going to be entering his 30s soon, and he’s been “neutered” by the league as many fans have described.

It’s just tough for me to see keeping Wilson making sense unless he takes a huge discount on his market value and I’ll believe that when I see it.

 

[um]

I’d be weary of giving Wilson a long term deal unless it’s a good cap hit, like we did with Oshie.

He’ll be 30 when he starts his next deal and players of his play style don’t really age well. I’m thinking about Lucic and Simmonds.

I’m sure there are other examples I am not thinking of off the top of my head.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Moving Wilson would be doing it a year early before a year late. If we dont have an extension before the deadline as hard as it will be we have to move on.