Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[bacchist]

If it's even remotely conceivable that a player's best years are behind them, I don't want anything to do with them. By the time the Caps are competitive again, they'll be washed up.

 

[twabby]

You're talking 7.5 million and almost a decade in age difference.

No. More. Old. Men.

The old man is about to win a Norris and put up one of the best seasons in recent history by a defenseman.

I get the desire to get younger but I don’t think Chychrun really solves their biggest problem which is scoring goals.

If Washington is going to use significant assets to make an acquisition then they should get a guy that really drives offense. Either a 1C or a true dynamic 1D.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

I think that where we should get the talent that drives offense is through this years draft, and by assessing our existing young'uns. Some of those could still exceed expectations (Miro especially). Give them a few years and you can move those who don't fit in hockey trades for some others that do fit.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Any interest in Kapanen?

 

[Calicaps]

The old man is about to win a Norris and put up one of the best seasons in recent history by a defenseman.

I get the desire to get younger but I don’t think Chychrun really solves their biggest problem which is scoring goals.

If Washington is going to use significant assets to make an acquisition then they should get a guy that really drives offense. Either a 1C or a true dynamic 1D.

And next year he's as likely as not to miss the season with another injury or to just show his age. No.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

 

[Calicaps]

I think that where we should get the talent that drives offense is through this years draft, and by assessing our existing young'uns. Some of those could still exceed expectations (Miro especially). Give them a few years and you can move those who don't fit in hockey trades for some others that do fit.

They cannot take that approach with Ovie still playing. He wants to compete and reach 895. He needs a functional roster sooner than later.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I wanted this trade but damn that hit me in the feels.

 

[twabby]

And next year he's as likely as not to miss the season with another injury or to just show his age. No.

I don’t know that this is true.

There’s a very fine needle Washington is looking to thread: an immediate retool to fix an anemic offense caused by their top-end players (minus Ovechkin) being terrible. There’s going to be a huge risk in trying to accomplish this without doing a true tear-down and rebuild, which as you accurately stated isn’t something the team should be looking to do while Ovechkin is around.

Maybe someone else will become available. But right now Karlsson is the guy who makes the most sense to me.

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

They cannot take that approach with Ovie still playing. He wants to compete and reach 895. He needs a functional roster sooner than later.


My reply...

What I'm suggesting would include using the cap space to get the right short term offense for a year or two. Teams often do a retool and surprise by becoming competitive again very quickly. And GMBM has a great eye for the right cheap pick ups.

 

[Langway]

They cannot take that approach with Ovie still playing. He wants to compete and reach 895. He needs a functional roster sooner than later.

Define functional. Functional to be a playoff team next season? Probably not and so I do think the draft has to primarily become their avenue to improvement. It will take time. But if they fast-track it it will only further lower their ceiling.

I suspect the majority of their cap space will be used to field an NHL blueline next season. Beyond that maybe there's enough to go around to take a few cheap projects on up front. As-is I don't know that their issues are going to be any different. Maybe a new coach and a healthy Carlson/Wilson add some jump. Maybe they give a prospect forward or two a chance but it seems equally likely the blueline will be worse. Their forward mix issues likely only get more pronounced if they fail to move out some big contracts. Hard to see how they improve next season without moving one or two of Kuznetsov/Mantha/Oshie. At this point there's little indication they're in the mix to move. They could be off-season moves. Mantha maybe they can swap out for someone else's problem. But overall it's hard to see how this team seriously turns it around and competes again in short order. They can't just presto-chango a highly viable mix. They'll also need a couple gritty key PKing depth forwards on the cheap, replacing some lost hustle and heart. It's an awful lot to address in one off-season.

From a value perspective I would still be open to moving the Boston pick for incredible immediate value in a Chychrun deal. But they've got loads of work ahead of them.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

If they don’t make any significant change up front m, they aren’t making the playoffs next year.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

All class there….

 

[Brian23]

I don’t know that this is true.

Yanno, for funsies, which one of these look like the outlier too you?

Again, if we were in the heart of a playoff push I'd get it. There's just no reason when we're trying to be bad right now and looking to retool in the offseason.

It makes even less sense when you realize we're projected to have 15 million in cap space next year without EK, and he'd take up 11.5 of it...at 33/34 years old.

 

[Langway]

The old man is about to win a Norris and put up one of the best seasons in recent history by a defenseman.

Maybe in the off-season if SJS retains. As-is all he'd do is hurt the tank and perhaps even save Lavi's job. No need for that sort of effort at the moment.

 

[Calicaps]

All class there….

Has a real sincere vibe too. Wish he hadn't gone to Boston so I could cheer for him.

 

[Devil Dancer]

I'm not opposed to targeting Karlsson in an attempt to stay relevant in 2023-2024, but what happens with Carlson in that scenario? The Karlsson-Burns experiment was a failure, and I don't expect Karlsson-Carlson would be any better. It would be an incredible waste to spend $20m for players with overlapping skill sets, especially on the PP where there's only so much time to go around to PPQBs.

If the Caps can work a miracle shuffle where they move Carlson for significant assets while simultaneously making a move for Karlsson work then OK, go GMBM, but I don't think they have the stones to pull it off.

 

[Calicaps]

Define functional. Functional to be a playoff team next season? Probably not and so I do think the draft has to primarily become their avenue to improvement. It will take time. But if they fast-track it it will only further lower their ceiling.

I suspect the majority of their cap space will be used to field an NHL blueline next season. Beyond that maybe there's enough to go around to take a few cheap projects on up front. As-is I don't know that their issues are going to be any different. Maybe a new coach and a healthy Carlson/Wilson add some jump. Maybe they give a prospect forward or two a chance but it seems equally likely the blueline will be worse. Their forward mix issues likely only get more pronounced if they fail to move out some big contracts. Hard to see how they improve next season without moving one or two of Kuznetsov/Mantha/Oshie. At this point there's little indication they're in the mix to move. They could be off-season moves. Mantha maybe they can swap out for someone else's problem. But overall it's hard to see how this team seriously turns it around and competes again in short order. They can't just presto-chango a highly viable mix. They'll also need a couple gritty key PKing depth forwards on the cheap, replacing some lost hustle and heart. It's an awful lot to address in one off-season.

From a value perspective I would still be open to moving the Boston pick for incredible immediate value in a Chychrun deal. But they've got loads of work ahead of them.

All of this is just low-key catastrophizing. You and other posters have been rightly calling for TDL moves and we've already had a big one a week before the deadline. There's precisely zero reason to presume that more isn't coming or that there's somehow not a plan to retool.

Functional means competitive. They don't have to win a President's Trophy. They just need to have a genuine shot at the post-season and enough offensive talent/new coaching vision to get Ovie his goals.

 

[Hivemind]

They cannot take that approach with Ovie still playing. He wants to compete and reach 895. He needs a functional roster sooner than later.

The "proven vets only" approach to keeping the team "functional" has clearly backfired this season, and many of us view this as a continuation of where that strategy has been trending for multiple years now. Getting younger and faster doesn't have to hurt their chances of making the post-season (or even advancing in the post-season). The team that won the Cup in 2018 was younger than any Ovechkin-era team since the young guns. Youth and promise isn't guaranteed, but I'd much rather roll my dice on youth than hoping for another 5-games-and-done post-season run on the backs of overpaid 30-somethings with their best days behind them.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

If they want to retool on the fly, Jensen, Gus, Eller, Sheary, MoJo, NAK, etc. should all be moved. TVR should be extended, as he provides very good value relative to cost and is quite underrated.

I also do not trust Lavi at all to develop young talent. Not one youngster has grown under his wing here. I would argue Fever should be a lot farther along than he currently is in terms of all-around development and offensive capabilities. Even in his case - KM has been his coach and Fever still leaves a lot to be desired relative to where he should be.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

With this limited D market and some desperate teams, you begin to wonder whether Jensen could be moved for a 1st, especially with potential salary retention taken into account.

I personally can also see Gus, Eller, Sheary, MoJo each bringing back 2s/3s. Time to stock up on draft capital to play with later on.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'm not opposed to targeting Karlsson in an attempt to stay relevant in 2023-2024, but what happens with Carlson in that scenario? The Karlsson-Burns experiment was a failure, and I don't expect Karlsson-Carlson would be any better. It would be an incredible waste to spend $20m for players with overlapping skill sets, especially on the PP where there's only so much time to go around to PPQBs.

If the Caps can work a miracle shuffle where they move Carlson for significant assets while simultaneously making a move for Karlsson work then OK, go GMBM, but I don't think they have the stones to pull it off.

I noticed his NTC shrinks/shrank from 15 to 10 in 2023….

 

[twabby]

Yanno, for funsies, which one of these look like the outlier too you?

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Again, if we were in the heart of a playoff push I'd get it. There's just no reason when we're trying to be bad right now and looking to retool in the offseason.

It makes even less sense when you realize we're projected to have 15 million in cap space next year without EK, and he'd take up 11.5 of it...at 33/34 years old.

Two of those seasons were COVID shortened ones. I just don’t know that beggars can be choosers if the mandate is to retool now. There’s not going to be a perfect option and they’re going to need to get lucky.

I still think there’s a good chance Karlsson isn’t moved by the TDL. His cap hit is too onerous for many teams to take on now even with some retention. You saw how it took double retention for Boston to take on Orlov and Toronto to take on O’Reilly and each makes half as much as Karlsson against the cap. Yes there’s risk in SJ holding onto Karlsson until the offseason, but they can always just shut him down post-TDL to prevent injury. I don’t think Washington should go after him now, only if he’s available in the offseason.

I’m also not assuming all of Kuznetsov, Oshie, Mantha, and even Backstrom will be around next year. I think they might be able to trade Kuznetsov and not have to attach a sweetener. Maybe a team like Colorado takes a shot with Kuznetsov. Maybe Backstrom goes on LTIR. If Backstrom in particular goes on LTIR the Karlsson gamble makes a lot more sense.

I’m not married to the idea of Karlsson. I’m just looking at the list of commonly assumed available players and he’s the only one out there that really moves the needle in a way that can make this longshot attempt at retooling on the fly work. I don’t think Chychrun is that caliber of player. Maybe Elias Pettersson becomes disgruntled in Vancouver, or maybe someone else that we’re not thinking of suddenly becomes available. But right now only Karlsson fits that bill, even if there is some risk of it blowing up in their face.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

With this limited D market and some desperate teams, you begin to wonder whether Jensen could be moved for a 1st, especially with potential salary retention taken into account.

I personally can also see Gus, Eller, Sheary, MoJo each bringing back 2s/3s. Time to stock up on draft capital to play with later on.

Jensen next! Good time to try and resign Sheary cheaper than he would have cost earlier in the year. Same with Mojo…..he’s probably happy to stay on a reasonable 1 yr deal.

 

[Calicaps]

The "proven vets only" approach to keeping the team "functional" has clearly backfired this season, and many of us view this as a continuation of where that strategy has been trending for multiple years now. Getting younger and faster doesn't have to hurt their chances of making the post-season (or even advancing in the post-season). The team that won the Cup in 2018 was younger than any Ovechkin-era team since the young guns. Youth and promise isn't guaranteed, but I'd much rather roll my dice on youth than hoping for another 5-games-and-done post-season run on the backs of overpaid 30-somethings with their best days behind them.

Who said anything about "proven vets"? Only you.