Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[Langway]

I think we should give Ovi more credit than that. If we're trending in the wrong direction and are strategic sellers at the deadline, I think he'd be okay with that if Mac got out a whiteboard and showed him how we parlay that into a stronger position next year.

Probably true. Yet ownership seems unlikely to risk taking a step back. They've displayed no willingness for the sake of investing in development/upside recently. They've thumbed their noses at it for so long that I don't expect them to embrace it until it's unavoidable. More likely they'll continue their tendency toward immediate value, marginal goals, marginal improvement by way of being light buyers. Maybe they make a shake-up trade moving on from Mantha, freeing up more space. Either way it's hard to fathom them inviting much short-term pain for more lasting gain.

On the surface something like a first rounder for Jensen is appealing but then could they be sure that as an asset it would be used in a way that improves them next season? Hard to believe that immediacy won't remain the main operating principle and because of it whatever changes made will fall a bit flat. They're going to need to reinvest more toward development, skill and hockey IQ over sheer work ethic and experience. Otherwise they're not going to manufacture the exceptional pieces needed to break through again. If it's just the same vet-laden grinding in Ovechkin's final few seasons then as the core group ages further it will only get less and less tenable. We've seen with so many good teams mgmt. changes become unavoidable after falling behind the curve and being unable to strike the right balance in shifting gears effectively. Even with all of their theoretical flexibility it's hard to predict them coming out of it all that much better next season unless coupled with a pretty significant evolution in thinking.

I'd love for them to sell off and maybe position themselves to trade up for Michkov. But do you stake so much of the franchise on a player two years away? A guy that's dynamic, sure, but still a winger? Probably not. For them? Highly unlikely. Maybe they come up with something brilliant and outside the box at the deadline or this off-season but I'm not expecting it. The safe money remains on convention, caution, low-risk, minimizing weaknesses and the basic tenets of remaining minimally viable while slowly aging out. I don't think they really have the ambition or conviction to rock the boat much. A coaching change could be one of the main areas where such a change could be ushered in but I don't doubt Lavi returns and it's the same basic approach with some new secondary pieces.

 

[Jags]

Everyone's issue with Mantha is laziness and reluctance to use his size.

I hear you, but that's not quite true. No one familiar with his whole career should really have a problem with the way he uses his size. He didn't grow up with 230 pounds on that frame. As he was becoming a standout NHL prospect, he was already really tall but only 190. He was a beanpole. He didn't grow up with the body of a checking forward. He was a tall, wiry guy, and he still uses that size very well.

He's rangy, uses his reach well, leverages his length in both ways -- gets his feet apart to create a wide base that's real hard to knock down or off the puck, and has a long stride with quickness and control for a big man, making him faster and more maneuverable than a guy his size would otherwise be.

When his adult frame filled out and he added weight, he'd already solidified his style. It happened way too late in life for him to transition to a heavy game. It wouldn't serve his strengths at all at this point.

Given that his strong underlying metrics don't translate to boxcars, he'd probably be best served dropping weight, getting lean, and getting back to the basics of his early game. That he hasn't might be the laziness that we all agree is a real factor.

 

[Calicaps]

Ovie has said he's not interested in being part of a rebuild. He wants to compete and hit 895. So the organization isn't going to rebuild until after he's hung 'em up. They'll do whatever they can to stay competitive, but they won't tear it down.

 

[Hivemind]

Selling at the deadline doesn't mean tearing it down. It means they're getting assets for UFAs that are going to walk in order to help re-tool for next season effectively. Lars Eller or Garnet Hatheway or Connor Sheary (who hasn't scored since the Clinton administration) aren't the difference between this team making the playoffs or not this season.

 

[RedRocking]

I don't understand the "sell high" mentality wrt pro sports. It's not the stock market. The goal isn't to maximize return in trades it's to build a winning team of players. You're not trying to time the market. You still get value from the players, even if it's not PEAK value, for years beyond their apex.

Hathaway seems like a guy that helps in that goal. Especially with all the injury problems at RW.

It works that way for loser, poverty franchises. And after every loss, and because this isn’t 2015 anymore, everyone seems to write this org off as such.

And while Hath would be a sly add for a cap strapped team in need of some playoff grit on their 4th line - he wouldn’t fetch a 1st! Come on with this fantasy, video game GMing.

 

[bacchist]

He'll be 32 this year. IF we trend in the wrong direction over the next 2+ weeks, he's a guy that could yield a nice pick along with a roster spot we could use in a more future-facing and cost effective way.

Yeah... I mean, that makes perfect sense and everything. But as a fan I just keep thinking back to all the games where the whole team played like crap except him.

 

[crazy8888]

I hear you, but that's not quite true. No one familiar with his whole career should really have a problem with the way he uses his size. He didn't grow up with 230 pounds on that frame. As he was becoming a standout NHL prospect, he was already really tall but only 190. He was a beanpole. He didn't grow up with the body of a checking forward. He was a tall, wiry guy, and he still uses that size very well.

He's rangy, uses his reach well, leverages his length in both ways -- gets his feet apart to create a wide base that's real hard to knock down or off the puck, and has a long stride with quickness and control for a big man, making him faster and more maneuverable than a guy his size would otherwise be.

When his adult frame filled out and he added weight, he'd already solidified his style. It happened way too late in life for him to transition to a heavy game. It wouldn't serve his strengths at all at this point.

Given that his strong underlying metrics don't translate to boxcars, he'd probably be best served dropping weight, getting lean, and getting back to the basics of his early game. That he hasn't might be the laziness that we all agree is a real factor.

Cant really argue about his development as I did not really follow him before he came to the Caps and before that all i really saw is glimpses from his time in Detroit. As far as why he does not use his size, you may very well be right on the money. I also think that his multiple shoulder injuries contribute to how he plays now. Sometimes I notice him go out of his way not to do a shoulder check and instead extend his arms for the hit or kind of jump on top of the player. Look, whatever the reason may be i think his salary is the real anchor. With all of the injuries this season Caps need to get 100% out of their lineup and unfortunately a $5M + player that is not producing is not going to cut it. This was a year for him to step up and not be a scratch candidate.

I have nothing against him aside from my general dislike of big players who play with no grit and my own hoping that we were getting something like a playoff version of Johan Franzen when Mantha came here.

 

[Jags]

The safe money remains on convention, caution, low-risk, minimizing weaknesses and the basic tenets of remaining minimally viable while slowly aging out. I don't think they really the ambition or conviction to rock the boat much. A coaching change could be one of the main areas where such a change could be ushered in but I don't doubt Lavi returns and it's the same basic approach with some new secondary pieces.

Yeah, up until now mostly standing pat has made sense. The pieces we've kept up until this year still had promise even if you ignore some of their more glaring shortcomings. But this is the year where we really find out either what kind of GM we have or how single-minded the organization is about its promise to Ovi, because how we handle this offseason will definitely show whether we maneuver responsibly with an eye on what's realistically best for a club in our position or if we're going to sacrifice a serious amount of future to try to win now at all costs.

Too many big pieces on expiring deals, too many long-term core guys like Kuznetsov and Oshie at cost-vs-performance crossroads, too much cap tied up in assets that don't help us win many games.

In other words, we might get significantly more competitive if we make hard choices that include parting with guys the club and its fans love. We haven't really had to make that kind of move since Alzner, and there's at least a couple mainstays that'd do us more good as cap space and maneuvering room.

Yeah... I mean, that makes perfect sense and everything. But as a fan I just keep thinking back to all the games where the whole team played like crap except him.

100% agree, but it's also exactly the reason it's a guy like him that'd net an attractive return and not all the "played like crap" guys. It'd be awesome if we could get real assets for shitty players.

The guys that get you assets you really need are often the toughest to part with.

 

[Calicaps]

Selling at the deadline doesn't mean tearing it down. It means they're getting assets for UFAs that are going to walk in order to help re-tool for next season effectively. Lars Eller or Garnet Hatheway or Connor Sheary (who hasn't scored since the Clinton administration) aren't the difference between this team making the playoffs or not this season.

Depends how much you sell and for what. I'm not opposed to selling, but I don't expect them to just take back picks and prospects for half a dozen UFAs.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Ovie has said he's not interested in being part of a rebuild. He wants to compete and hit 895. So the organization isn't going to rebuild until after he's hung 'em up. They'll do whatever they can to stay competitive, but they won't tear it down.

Who's talking about a rebuild or a tear down. Whether these ufas are gone March 1 or July 1, the only difference is that you'll get a return now where as the only thing you'll get come July 1 is cap space that'll get pissed away. Neither a tear down or a rebuild but rather an attempt to stay a bit a head off the curve.

 

[Jags]

Depends how much you sell and for what. I'm not opposed to selling, but I don't expect them to just take back picks and prospects for half a dozen UFAs.

If we sell anything notable it'd only obviously be to a contender, so futures is all we're likely to get. But given Mac's propensity for turning those kinds of assets into Connor Browns, it's not a bad thing. If we keep pending UFAs with an eye on signing them, we'll need a lot more cap space, so futures is all we can take on if we're sellers at the deadline unless we part with someone costly and surprising like Kuznetsov.

Any way you slice it, the only way we get back anything but futures at the TDL is if we're buyers.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Not sure what you mean by head case. Everyone's issue with Mantha is laziness and reluctance to use his size.

As for Kravstov, who knows. Not sure why Mantha is a comparison. But yes change of scenery is desperately needed. Not sure about Rangers fans and Kravtsov but i sure am tired of seeing Mantha.

The head case reference was in regards to Kravstov as I know he was threatening to go back to the KHL and he's been having issues with Rangers management.

The Mantha comparison Is in regards to Kravstov's elite prospects assessment:
"A big, skilled winger that can play up and down the lineup and provide scoring in a number of roles. He brings grit and physical size, but could be more assertive in throwing his weight around more. Displays excellent speed on the rush and in zone entry, but could backcheck quicker. Plays well in his own end and takes away lanes. Very good hands and awareness. Kravtsov has the potential to develop into a staple top six forward that can produce at the next level."

 

[hb13xchamps]

If they are most likely out of it, I’d only sell off the ones you absolutely know you aren’t bringing back. Moving that many guys out will only disrupt the entire organization if they aren’t taking bodies back.

Realistically, the only UFA who could return a 1st would be Orlov but I’d rather they try and bring him back if the price was right. Maybe Jensen fetches a 1st if teams get desperate at the last moment

 

[Calicaps]

Who's talking about a rebuild or a tear down. Whether these ufas are gone March 1 or July 1, the only difference is that you'll get a return now where as the only thing you'll get come July 1 is cap space that'll get pissed away. Neither a tear down or a rebuild but rather an attempt to stay a bit a head off the curve.

Some folks are talking about a near-rebuild and selling off virtually everyone not named Ovechkin.

If we sell anything notable it'd only obviously be to a contender, so futures is all we're likely to get. But given Mac's propensity for turning those kinds of assets into Connor Browns, it's not a bad thing. If we keep pending UFAs with an eye on signing them, we'll need a lot more cap space, so futures is all we can take on if we're sellers at the deadline unless we part with someone costly and surprising like Kuznetsov.

Any way you slice it, the only way we get back anything but futures at the TDL is if we're buyers.

Or you make hockey trades, which I know is MUCH easier said than done.

 

[g00n]

Selling at the deadline doesn't mean tearing it down. It means they're getting assets for UFAs that are going to walk in order to help re-tool for next season effectively. Lars Eller or Garnet Hatheway or Connor Sheary (who hasn't scored since the Clinton administration) aren't the difference between this team making the playoffs or not this season.

They aren't the difference? You wouldn't know it from the comments over the last 2 years.

They have a dozen or so UFAs. They're not going to sell a dozen guys at the deadline. And they're not going to ditch cheap UFAs just for the f*** of it, or to please fussy fans who demand "value for assets".

 

[g00n]

My problem with Mantha is the dude has too much chill. No edge. He doesn't have to hit he just has to start drinking Red Bull instead of herbal tea. Or something.

I was willing to give the guy a chance but now he's had plenty of time to adjust and little has changed. If anything he seems to have regressed.

Some guys play with fire in their bellies. Others have gummy bears and avocado toast.

 

[Calicaps]

My problem with Mantha is the dude has too much chill. No edge. He doesn't have to hit he just has to start drinking Red Bull instead of herbal tea. Or something.

I was willing to give the guy a chance but now he's had plenty of time to adjust and little has changed. If anything he seems to have regressed.

Some guys play with fire in their bellies. Others have gummy bears and avocado toast.

It's this. He just doesn't want it bad enough. Such a shame. I always liked his game in Detroit and attributed the nonchalance to the fact they were bottom-feeders. Oh well.

 

[Corby78]

I think fans need to start preparing for the reality of the Caps trading away a mid-round pick for a 3rd pairing D, making the playoffs, losing in 5 games, then watching their entire defensive core leave in free agency.

Yeah this is my big fear

 

[Corby78]

Ovie has said he's not interested in being part of a rebuild. He wants to compete and hit 895. So the organization isn't going to rebuild until after he's hung 'em up. They'll do whatever they can to stay competitive, but they won't tear it down.

Somebody needs to tell Ovie we can’t keep doing what we are doing and stay competitive. The trend is down. It may not take a complete rebuild, but a retool/shakeup is in order and it will involve some of the bigger names. Or we can flounder around 8th for the next couple years with real no shot and the eventual rebuild when he is gone will probably take even longer.

 

[Calicaps]

Yeah this is my big fear

I dunno. Last season BMac said he wasn't gonna do much at the deadline if they kept on the way they were. They pulled their shit together and so he did more than I think he had thought he would. But he's not blind. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he does this year what he threatened last year.

Somebody needs to tell Ovie we can’t keep doing what we are doing and stay competitive. The trend is down. It may not take a complete rebuild, but a retool/shakeup is in order and it will involve some of the bigger names. Or we can flounder around 8th for the next couple years with real no shot and the eventual rebuild when he is gone will probably take even longer.

Retool isn't a rebuild. But he doesn't want to spend his last years on a lottery team.

 

[hb13xchamps]

They aren't the difference? You wouldn't know it from the comments over the last 2 years.

They have a dozen or so UFAs. They're not going to sell a dozen guys at the deadline. And they're not going to ditch cheap UFAs just for the f*** of it, or to please fussy fans who demand "value for assets".

I don’t necessarily see them going scorched earth. They most likely won’t make any moves and will probably add pieces as long as they are within striking distance to a playoff spot.

Selling off a few assets that could fetch early round draft picks only happens if they are clearly out of it. It would take an epic collapse the next few weeks for that scenario to play out. Orlov, Jensen, Eller and maybe Hathaway could fetch some decent draft capital as rentals. Those picks could become useful in a retool type scenario in the offseason.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Where I was going with this regarding Kravtsov is that he's a right wing. Having him play on the same line with Kuznetesov and Ovechkin might be the stimulus to get his game going. Further spitballing on all of this, I believe Hathaway's return will be a 2nd and a 3rd round pick, but if we're making such a transaction within Division there has to be more.

Kravtsov, Rangers 2nd and 3rd round pick for Hathaway and Mantha. The cap would be the issue as it really won't work for the Rangers and I don't want to see the Capitals taking on a Goodrow contract.

 

[Corby78]

I dunno. Last season BMac said he wasn't gonna do much at the deadline if they kept on the way they were. They pulled their shit together and so he did more than I think he had thought he would. But he's not blind. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he does this year what he threatened last year.

Retool isn't a rebuild. But he doesn't want to spend his last years on a lottery team.

No I get it. And not everyone who wants to be sellers, are talking about a complete rebuild. I believe we can do a quick retool if we are smart with assets this TDL, and aren’t tied to 2018 this off-season. My faith in this year is ver low

 

[Calicaps]

No I get it. And not everyone who wants to be sellers, are talking about a complete rebuild. I believe we can do a quick retool if we are smart with assets this TDL, and aren’t tied to 2018 this off-season. My faith in this year is ver low

I agree it's not worth pushing for anything this season. But as @Jags was saying, it's tough to get anything other than futures at the TDL. That's the rock to the no-rebuild hard place.

 

[Brian23]

Feeling like the Preds without the dominant post season run.