Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[g00n]

Statistically we're not much better or worse than last year, including goaltending. We picked up a few % points here and there so far, and maybe dropped some elsewhere.

I think the main difference is they're still managing to hold their ground with so many injuries, and the team has confidence in their netminding even if the stats aren't greatly improved.

Remember they were a botched ENG away from putting FLA in a huge hole last year in RD1, iirc, along with some other dumb collapses in the last 2-3 games. If not for horrid performances from Eller and Carlson, and Sammy getting worse as the series went on, they could've staged a huge upset.

If DK can hold down the fort as the reigning SC champ goaltender it will at least provide that much of an advantage. Then you have to hope for good health and better Eller, Carlson, and probably Kuzy in the playoffs.

 

[twabby]

I wonder how bad Orlov’s lower body injury was this season and if it’s still lingering.

He’s had a tough season. Certainly not terrible but remarkably average after years of exceptional play. Any time I see a dip that isn’t easily explained by bad luck I immediately think of injury.

He’s going to be 32 years old next year. He’s likely going to command close to $6 million or more for multiple years. His best years are likely behind him. If there’s a decent chance his injury is likely to linger I think they need to consider selling him at the TDL. He should easily return a first round pick, and probably more.

Tough, interesting times ahead.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I wonder how bad Orlov’s lower body injury was this season and if it’s still lingering.

He’s had a tough season. Certainly not terrible but remarkably average after years of exceptional play. Any time I see a dip that isn’t easily explained by bad luck I immediately think of injury.

He’s going to be 32 years old next year. He’s likely going to command close to $6 million or more for multiple years. His best years are likely behind him. If there’s a decent chance his injury is likely to linger I think they need to consider selling him at the TDL. He should easily return a first round pick, and probably more.

Tough, interesting times ahead.

Would we dare sell to a eastern team? I would be all over that Sabres 1st rounder and they should have good prospects after picking in the top 10 every year.

 

[twabby]

Would we dare sell to a eastern team? I would be all over that Sabres 1st rounder and they should have good prospects after picking in the top 10 every year.

Not limiting it to Buffalo and Orlov specifically but in general i think it would be cowardly and not ideal to restrict trade partners due to the division/conference they are in. Just get the best return possible!

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

 

[BiPolar Caps]

What would the returns be for:

Eller​

Johansson​

Sheary​

Hathaway​

Aube-Kubel​

​

Marcus Johansson is having the best season since 16/17 when he was last with the Caps. Since leaving the Caps, he played for the Devils, Bruins, Sabres and Kraken, all teams in the playoff hunt. Cost the Caps a 4th and 6th round pick last season along with Sprong to pick him up at the TDL.​

​

Lars Eller fwiw has about 55%FO this season. Nothing glamorous about him, but he can be a steady C for the 3rd or 4th line for a team.​

​

Connor Sheary is a gnat, an opportunist gnat whose motor is always running. His three seasons with the Caps he's been pretty consistent with scoring and doesn't seem to be a defensive liability. He can play up and down in the lineup and if this was baseball he would definitely be a utility man.​

​

Garnet Hathaway could be the most intriguing of them all, especially after watching his performance against the Bruins. For me, his style of play would be the ideal type of player you want to pick up for the playoffs.​

​

All said and done, at the very least I would like to see the Capitals reclaim picks in the rounds in '23 and '24 that they have lost via trades. That would mean a 3rd and 6th in the '23 draft and a second in the '24 draft.​

​

​

​

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Would we dare sell to a eastern team? I would be all over that Sabres 1st rounder and they should have good prospects after picking in the top 10 every year.

Sure just not the Metro teams. No reason to gear them up for their future. I have no problem with Buffalo etc. We don't need to give our division rivals anymore freebies.

 

[Hivemind]

Would we dare sell to a eastern team? I would be all over that Sabres 1st rounder and they should have good prospects after picking in the top 10 every year.

They gave New Jersey an answer to their biggest question mark (goalie) this off-season. GMBM clearly isn't afraid of dealing with teams in the East or in the division.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

I've been pondering this for a while now since Seattle came in the league. I wouldn't mind two more teams added to the playoffs and no more division BS. The rivalry thing isn't like it used to be and they should go back to best plays the worst in seeding plays the top seeded in conference or maybe do away with conferences. I'm really sick of seeing the NYR, Devils, Pens, Canes, Flyers, etc. We have more NHL teams now and it's stale. The West has some really weak divisions the Atlantic isn't that impressive either, outside of Boston. If anything make it like the late 90s. Top seed plays 8th, second top seed plays 7th, and 3rd plays 6th, etc. This division shit is just not cutting it.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

They gave New Jersey an answer to their biggest question mark (goalie) this off-season. GMBM clearly isn't afraid of dealing with teams in the East or in the division.

Unfortunately, the two trades we made with Jersey really helped their push into becoming a contender.

What would the returns be for:

Eller​

Johansson​

Sheary​

Hathaway​

Aube-Kubel​

​

Marcus Johansson is having the best season since 16/17 when he was last with the Caps. Since leaving the Caps, he played for the Devils, Bruins, Sabres and Kraken, all teams in the playoff hunt. Cost the Caps a 4th and 6th round pick last season along with Sprong to pick him up at the TDL.​

​

Lars Eller fwiw has about 55%FO this season. Nothing glamorous about him, but he can be a steady C for the 3rd or 4th line for a team.​

​

Connor Sheary is a gnat, an opportunist gnat whose motor is always running. His three seasons with the Caps he's been pretty consistent with scoring and doesn't seem to be a defensive liability. He can play up and down in the lineup and if this was baseball he would definitely be a utility man.​

​

Garnet Hathaway could be the most intriguing of them all, especially after watching his performance against the Bruins. For me, his style of play would be the ideal type of player you want to pick up for the playoffs.​

​

All said and done, at the very least I would like to see the Capitals reclaim picks in the rounds in '23 and '24 that they have lost via trades. That would mean a 3rd and 6th in the '23 draft and a second in the '24 draft.​

​

​

​

I would rather trade all of these players at the deadline and get more draft picks rather than letting good young players go we never gave a fair chance.

 

[Langway]

Orlov makes more sense for Toronto or Edmonton. Teams that are Right There.

I think the question remains: do they believe they're obligated to Ovechkin to not punt on a season? They haven't sold since Ovechkin's first two seasons when they were still in the thick of the rebuild and weren't yet a competitive cap ceiling team. There's no recent example. In 2014 when they missed the playoffs McPhee shipped out Erat and traded for vets Halak & Penner at the deadline. Chances are they'll still be in the mix this deadline so I'd wager on something along the lines of the 2014 deadline: substitute Mantha for Erat and add a depth D. Maybe add another vet depth forward depending on injuries.

To sell would be an admission and an acceptance that the party is over and wouldn't be made lightly, esp. if their placement remains close. Do they highly value the draft picks, this draft class and other assets they'd get back from selling? How easy in the near-term would it be to replace the pending UFAs? We're talking an entire blueline more or less and a lot of forwards. Would they sell yet keep Lavi around and throw out a bunch of inexperienced Hershey Bears to play out the season? Would they sell some but keep others they have more hope in eventually extending? Hard to imagine they're sellers barring a significant decline over the next two plus weeks. Were that to happen you might as well let Lavi go and bring up Nelson.

More likely they tread water just enough, stay at least relatively close in the standings, don't make much of any significant alterations at the deadline beyond some secondary tweaks and push the time to sort out more major issues for another time. I have my doubts that MacLellan is on top of it and will strike the right balance to adequate enfuse them with the shot in the arm they need. it seems a lot more likely they'll still continue to largely put out variations on the same basic theme until Ovechkin hangs them up and they're force to do some real planning again.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Orlov makes more sense for Toronto or Edmonton. Teams that are Right There.

I think the question remains: do they believe they're obligated to Ovechkin to not punt on a season? They haven't sold since Ovechkin's first two seasons when they were still in the thick of the rebuild and weren't yet a competitive cap ceiling team. There's no recent example. In 2014 when they missed the playoffs McPhee shipped out Erat and traded for vets Halak & Penner at the deadline. Chances are they'll still be in the mix this deadline so I'd wager on something along the lines of the 2014 deadline: substitute Mantha for Erat and add a depth D. Maybe add another vet depth forward depending on injuries.

To sell would be an admission and an acceptance that the party is over and wouldn't be made lightly, esp. if their placement remains close. Do they highly value the draft picks, this draft class and other assets they'd get back from selling? How easy in the near-term would it be to replace the pending UFAs? We're talking an entire blueline more or less and a lot of forwards. Would they sell yet keep Lavi around and throw out a bunch of inexperienced Hershey Bears to play out the season? Would they sell some but keep others they have more hope in eventually extending? Hard to imagine they're sellers barring a significant decline over the next two plus weeks. Were that to happen you might as well let Lavi go and bring up Nelson.

More likely they tread water just enough, stay at least relatively close in the standings, don't make much of any significant alterations at the deadline beyond some secondary tweaks and push the time to sort out more major issues for another time. I have my doubts that MacLellan is on top of it and will strike the right balance to adequate enfuse them with the shot in the arm they need. it seems a lot more likely they'll still continue to largely put out variations on the same basic theme until Ovechkin hangs them up and they're force to do some real planning again.

GMBM really needs to figure out who he wants to extend past the Season and trade the UFA. But with our history of not trading like Semin and Mike Green. I’m not sure we do what I think is best.

And I also think we could get Orlov back in the off-season if we do trade him.

 

[Hivemind]

I think fans need to start preparing for the reality of the Caps trading away a mid-round pick for a 3rd pairing D, making the playoffs, losing in 5 games, then watching their entire defensive core leave in free agency.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Orlov makes more sense for Toronto or Edmonton. Teams that are Right There.

I think the question remains: do they believe they're obligated to Ovechkin to not punt on a season? They haven't sold since Ovechkin's first two seasons when they were still in the thick of the rebuild and weren't yet a competitive cap ceiling team. There's no recent example. In 2014 when they missed the playoffs McPhee shipped out Erat and traded for vets Halak & Penner at the deadline. Chances are they'll still be in the mix this deadline so I'd wager on something along the lines of the 2014 deadline: substitute Mantha for Erat and add a depth D. Maybe add another vet depth forward depending on injuries.

To sell would be an admission and an acceptance that the party is over and wouldn't be made lightly, esp. if their placement remains close. Do they highly value the draft picks, this draft class and other assets they'd get back from selling? How easy in the near-term would it be to replace the pending UFAs? We're talking an entire blueline more or less and a lot of forwards. Would they sell yet keep Lavi around and throw out a bunch of inexperienced Hershey Bears to play out the season? Would they sell some but keep others they have more hope in eventually extending? Hard to imagine they're sellers barring a significant decline over the next two plus weeks. Were that to happen you might as well let Lavi go and bring up Nelson.

More likely they tread water just enough, stay at least relatively close in the standings, don't make much of any significant alterations at the deadline beyond some secondary tweaks and push the time to sort out more major issues for another time. I have my doubts that MacLellan is on top of it and will strike the right balance to adequate enfuse them with the shot in the arm they need. it seems a lot more likely they'll still continue to largely put out variations on the same basic theme until Ovechkin hangs them up and they're force to do some real planning again.

I think not making a move would also not be acceptable to Ovechkin so…they are in an interesting spot.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

///

To sell would be an admission and an acceptance that the party is over and wouldn't be made lightly, esp. if their placement remains close. Do they highly value the draft picks, this draft class and other assets they'd get back from selling? How easy in the near-term would it be to replace the pending UFAs? We're talking an entire blueline more or less and a lot of forwards. Would they sell yet keep Lavi around and throw out a bunch of inexperienced Hershey Bears to play out the season? Would they sell some but keep others they have more hope in eventually extending? Hard to imagine they're sellers barring a significant decline over the next two plus weeks. Were that to happen you might as well let Lavi go and bring up Nelson.

More likely they tread water just enough, stay at least relatively close in the standings, don't make much of any significant alterations at the deadline beyond some secondary tweaks and push the time to sort out more major issues for another time. I have my doubts that MacLellan is on top of it and will strike the right balance to adequate enfuse them with the shot in the arm they need. it seems a lot more likely they'll still continue to largely put out variations on the same basic theme until Ovechkin hangs them up and they're force to do some real planning again.

I'm not sure how often it happens this way, but selling guys you are not planning on resigning - for price, performance, or other reasons - and getting picks back would give BMac currency for a) hockey trades over the summer, b) selections during a deep draft this year or c) player acquisitions during next season up to the TDL. A bunch of 1% chances at the Cup isn't as good as a couple of 5-10% chances. Better to gather a few nuts this year for use after the season ends.

And the UFAs they aren't gonna resign will need to be replaced anyway. Deal 'em instead of letting them walk for nothing. Kuemper is certainly an improvement over Swimmin' Sammy but it's hard to imagine this group going anywhere.

Ultimately, I agree that anything they do will likely be tinkering at the margins.

 

[g00n]

I think fans need to start preparing for the reality of the Caps trading away a mid-round pick for a 3rd pairing D, making the playoffs, losing in 5 games, then watching their entire defensive core leave in free agency.

Start preparing? This is basically a summary half of the posts here.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Start preparing? This is basically a summary half of the posts here.

More than half.

 

[Brian23]

They haven't sold since Ovechkin's first two seasons when they were still in the thick of the rebuild and weren't yet a competitive cap ceiling team.

The problem with this thought though is that they've never had a year that's set up perfectly for a quick sell off and turn around. 2013 was a decidedly weak year in the East, and they ended up only 3 points out of the WC spot if I recall correctly. Even then, the only real piece that walked away was Grabovski (which seemed huge at the time), but Kuznetsov coming over softened the blow.

This year, however, they're bound to lose a good chunk of these players in the offseason. You're better off getting something for them now to better set yourself up. Even selling them now, at the deadline, isn't entirely punting on the season. We aren't talking about punting Jensen or Orlov just yet, but guys that'll fetch more middling picks. On Bi-Polar's list, the only two with that might hurt are Mojo and Sheary. Sheary for his ability to play up and Mojo seemingly as the only one who can enter the zone on the power play. Eller's been relegated if Dowd's playing, I think NAK is a dime-a-dozen player and can be replaced, Hathaway might suck some but he's probably gone regardless. He'll fetch more then he's worth in the open market, and some teams would pay handsomly for 30 games and a playoff series with him.

 

[Langway]

While true it's such a drastic change in priorities to sell at all that it's hard to believe a weaker, muddled version would have any more appeal. It's sort of the worst of both worlds only selling off less valuable expiring pieces. (They're not also without their use currently....including Eller even if he's mostly washed 5v5). Either you're selling and taking offers on the entire lot, at least gauging value, or you're looking to buy. And I'd lay far better odds on adding, albeit reasonably.

Why sell only forwards? D often carry a premium at the deadline. A handful of 2/3 round picks won't kickstart much, in part because there's not the alignment to expect the coaching staff to finesse transitioning to a bunch of Hershey Bears down the stretch in secondary roles. If there were additional value impacts a middle ground like that would be more understandable but I don't think that's in their range as-is. Do that and you wonder if they don't lose Lavi. This is a team that deploys NAK on the top line. They're trying to get blood from a stone in pure survival mode. Expect nothing else until it runs its course and becomes thoroughly untenable.

They've battled. They've put it on the line for months. We've seen what Oshie is playing through. Business precedes sentiment but they're not exactly a cut-throat outfit, thoroughly churning through pieces. They are and will remain a country club regardless of how they shuffle about the pending UFAs. So they might as well buy reasonably because the other, theoretically responsible, courses of action seem entirely out of character. Even in a stronger draft year it's hard to really imagine such a drastic pivot. They've consistently over the years resisted taking steps back and I'd expect this deadline to be no different.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Start preparing? This is basically a summary half of the posts here.

We both know commenting to him is useless. In ALL ways.

 

[RedRocking]

While true it's such a drastic change in priorities to sell at all that it's hard to believe a weaker, muddled version would have any more appeal. It's sort of the worst of both worlds only selling off less valuable expiring pieces. (They're not also without their use currently....including Eller even if he's mostly washed 5v5). Either you're selling and taking offers on the entire lot, at least gauging value, or you're looking to buy. And I'd lay far better odds on adding, albeit reasonably.

Why sell only forwards? D often carry a premium at the deadline. A handful of 2/3 round picks won't kickstart much, in part because there's not the alignment to expect the coaching staff to finesse transitioning to a bunch of Hershey Bears down the stretch in secondary roles. If there were additional value impacts a middle ground like that would be more understandable but I don't think that's in their range as-is. Do that and you wonder if they don't lose Lavi. This is a team that deploys NAK on the top line. They're trying to get blood from a stone in pure survival mode. Expect nothing else until it runs its course and becomes thoroughly untenable.

They've battled. They've put it on the line for months. We've seen what Oshie is playing through. Business precedes sentiment but they're not exactly a cut-throat outfit, thoroughly churning through pieces. They are and will remain a country club regardless of how they shuffle about the pending UFAs. So they might as well buy reasonably because the other, theoretically responsible, courses of action seem entirely out of character. Even in a stronger draft year it's hard to really imagine such a drastic pivot. They've consistently over the years resisted taking steps back and I'd expect this deadline to be no different.

Yea, I agree, it’s not their MO to admit defeat and sell, unless they are clearly out of the playoff race and absolutely have to.

But I think people fret too much about selling. As if a 4th rounder for Eller, or Mojo is going to make that much of a difference for this franchise. Come on, most people hate on these guys constantly, and yet think they’re gonna bring some great return? Sure, you want to try and maximize all your assets, and if they could get a 1st for Orlov/Jensen then absolutely that makes sense, provided they are out of the hunt. And I get that the blueline is the biggest concern in all of this year’s decisions.

Ultimately, though, having guys walk on expiring contracts - that you didn’t flip for middling picks - isn’t the end of the world. It still brings cap space, and flexibility. Like, in the NBA, expiring contracts are treated as gold. The lack of any appreciable cap space has held the org back from any big moves that might actually shake up this stale core. Maybe some big name, like Tkachuck last year, will materialize this summer (e.g., maybe Detroit can’t re-sign Larkin?), who knows.

With their upcoming schedule maybe they’ll clearly be out of the hunt in a few weeks…but until that happens, we, like BMac, are just gonna have to be patient. I know, an impossible ask, when every loss is accompanied by pages of “Sell Everything!” posts.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Yea, I agree, it’s not their MO to admit defeat and sell, unless they are clearly out of the playoff race and absolutely have to.

But I think people fret too much about selling. As if a 4th rounder for Eller, or Mojo is going to make that much of a difference for this franchise. Come on, most people hate on these guys constantly, and yet think they’re gonna bring some great return? Sure, you want to try and maximize all your assets, and if they could get a 1st for Orlov/Jensen then absolutely that makes sense, provided they are out of the hunt. And I get that the blueline is the biggest concern in all of this year’s decisions.

Ultimately, though, having guys walk on expiring contracts - that you didn’t flip for middling picks - isn’t the end of the world. It still brings cap space, and flexibility. Like, in the NBA, expiring contracts are treated as gold. The lack of any appreciable cap space has held the org back from any big moves that might actually shake up this stale core. Maybe some big name, like Tkachuck last year, will materialize this summer (e.g., maybe Detroit can’t re-sign Larkin?), who knows.

With their upcoming schedule maybe they’ll clearly be out of the hunt in a few weeks…but until that happens, we, like BMac, are just gonna have to be patient. I know, an impossible ask, when every loss is accompanied by pages of “Sell Everything!” posts.

Maybe the 4th round picks and later don’t mean much (Holtby, anyone?) but those 2nd and 3rds definitely do. Fehervary, Protas, Siegenthaler, Vanecek, Stephenson, Orlov, Leason, etc were all second or third round picks. They traded a 2nd for Connor Brown. You can find good players in those earlier rounds and they’re also valuable as currency. If some GM wants to give up a second or third for some of these guys that won’t be hear next year anyway they should definitely pull the trigger.

Fans may not appreciate what some of these guys bring to the table and they may not all bring home 1sts but they could net solid returns. Wouldn’t surprise me if they could get a 1st for Hathaway. He plays a game that every GM drools over for the playoffs, especially a team like New Jersey who is going to get bullied in the playoffs. Nick Foligno got a 1st last year and Hathaway is a better player at this point in their careers. Gustafsson and Eller probably have 2nd round value. If they start to slip in the standings and if it’s clear they’re not going to be on the roster next year it’s a big missed opportunity cost. Eller himself went for two seconds at the draft — getting more picks gives them more options to improve the roster next season.

They don’t have to play any back to backs in the postseason but you have to wonder, given their atrocious records in back to backs, if it’s an indictment on their ability to withstand the grind of the playoffs, assuming they even get there.

 

[Langway]

While mid-round picks aren't trash--and they certainly need to draft and develop their way to solutions--they do require patience and taking the long view. And as we've seen lately they're hardly a sure thing. Even if they sold Orlov/Jensen/Hathaway they might be looking at adding a few rookies in Ovechkin's final year or two of his contract. Hard to say if they'd be able to develop them on the fly and not represent a step back in some facets. And mostly hard to believe they've firmly got that long view front of mind at the expense of breaking up maybe over half the roster. If it was utterly broke, sure, but they're not there quite yet.

Spending their way out of it isn't the solution either. Spend $9M on Larkin and it's just going to create structural issues elsewhere. They can take some big swings if it's essential. A pace-y, younger two-way center would be one of them but after extending Strome it seems unlikely (if Larkin even makes it to market). The Caps media have pointed to the ages of Strome & Milano (26) as a turn to getting younger but they're on their third teams. They're like a year away from UFA so...only young on a pretty tilted scale. They're also not really what you'd consider shot-in-the-arm types or guys that you know have the ability to be tonesetters and playoff performers. They're fine value perhaps but certainly at this stage it's hard to see what they're seeking to build. It looks decidedly mediocre, mostly because their drafting and development have largely dried up.

They're going to need to be extremely resourceful to creatively piece it together and add more workmanlike top nine wingers and finishers. At this point it's not clear there are any Hershey players ready to make the jump in significant roles next season and provide surplus value. Then there's sorting the blueline and so much of the strong value they've received there. It's an awful lot to sort without much in the way of high grade reliability beyond Ovechkin & Kuemper. Given their impatience I'd wager they'll be right back picking through the scrap heap. MacLellan did just fine there last off-season but a lot of the qualities lacked are very hard to find.

 

[g00n]

We have 2 weeks to TDL.

If they're in a playoff spot they're not selling. Nobody does that, except maybe Lou Lamoriello I dunno. Maybe they make a "hockey trade" and upgrade a position (Eller or Mantha).

If they're just out of a playoff spot they might try the same approach.

If they've shit the bed over the next 8 games and taken themselves out of contention, it's anyone's guess.

The LTIR probably won't be resolved until after that. The smart thing to do is have sympathetic doctors prolong recovery times for another few weeks "to allow full healing" or whatever so they can get to the playoffs without dumping cap space.

Looking at the other teams in the hunt they seem to be coming back down to Earth a little.

• OTT were pacing to be a threat but have slowed. They have a brutal schedule with FOUR B2B stints prior to the TDL.
• BUF have lost 3 in a row, the last two by a margin of 12-3. They're on a WC swing this week before coming back East to some tough EC matchups.
• FLA stumbled before the break and have been unpredictable. They may be the biggest threat. We play them on Thursday, and they'll be coming off a b2b matchup tonight and tomorrow. Must-win game. FLA's schedule after that is very light with just 5 games in the final 2 weeks prior to the TDL.
• NYI followed a 6 game losing streak with 2 wins prior to the ASG, won 2 more after, then dropped 2 to "bottom feeder" teams at home. It's anyone's guess what they do.
• DET are another question mark with 10 games leading into the deadline. Like BUF they're on a WC jag this week.
• PIT have a weird travel schedule that sees them bouncing around the country, including a 5 day period with 1 game in SJ (tomorrow) that could be a vacation mentality trap game despite the Sharks horrid home record.
• PHI seem to be dropping and are the only team in striking distance who isn't sitting on a 10 game trend that's right around .500. They also head West later this week.

Despite the games in hand for BUF, DET, and OTT I think NYI and FLA are still the biggest threats to knock us out of a spot. We'll be watching them closely.

 

[bacchist]

MoneyPuck is still giving the Caps a 3% chance of winning the cup. That's higher than the Devils with a 2.8% chance.

It's hard to imagine we'd be sellers at the trade deadline unless we don't win any games before then.

Ovie needs to score some goals and everything will work out.