Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[BFLO]

Hi Caps. Sabres fan coming in peace.

I'm curious about Orlov.

What's his role on the team this season and how is he handling it? What's the plan moving forward, do you want to re-sign him, do you want to dump him? What do you think he's worth at the deadline and UFA?

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Pretty massive if and, even then, in terms of pure goal-scorers behind Ovechkin it's paper thin. The combination of both thin goal-scorers and inconsistent (at best) play-driving and creation from the center position makes it a pretty mediocre group. When they're defending with purpose and have the puck more often than not they've got a shot but they have to work awfully hard for what they get. Whereas truly higher-end teams are better able to dictate at will. They're past that stage now and overall don't quite execute systematically to the point where a more widescreen team approach is likely to carry them all that far.

Despite their issues they've still got a shot at the playoffs. But certainly IMO Florida has a higher top-end thanks to their closer-to-peak impact players. Even Buffalo offers a stiffer top-end group at this stage. So it seems mostly on team-wide engagement, defense and effort as the recipe for modest success. But it's a very thin margin. Maybe adding Klingberg for Mantha+ does more for them than adding a comparable valued forward (say Barbashev or maybe JVR). I can buy that. But it's still pretty far from a group I'd have any confidence in being any sharper or more deadly than recent playoff performances.

... and for playoff success, this means having a group of players who can maintain their form, composure and performance sufficiently well to win 4 of 7, and do so against a first-round opponent whose coach (i.e., Cooper or Montgomery) is more likely to make the right adjustments than Lavi. Looking at their season to date, save for late Nov-Dec, the Caps had one single 7-game spell in which they won 4 of 7. (Yeah, OT is different in the loffs so that limits the relevance of comparisions betw the RS and the playoffs.) And that single spell included Ws against VAN and MTL. So other than their hot spell, there's no evidence they can hold it together against a division winner in a 7-game series. And their hot spell included a few OT Ws that might not have happened in a 5-on-5 format.

I hope mgmt is positioning the team to compete next season moreso than seeking to improve their overhyped 'puncher's chance' in 2023.

 

[YippieKaey]

Hi Caps. Sabres fan coming in peace.

I'm curious about Orlov.

What's his role on the team this season and how is he handling it? What's the plan moving forward, do you want to re-sign him, do you want to dump him? What do you think he's worth at the deadline and UFA?

He is worth exactly one Tage Thompson

 

[Brian23]

I generally wholeheartedly agree with GMBM's assessments of weaknesses on the team, or what he's trying to target, but I'm really not understanding it this year. How do they think the forward group is deep up front? Even if all healthy, I'm counting Conner Brown in this, I'm not sure they're really *that* deep.

Ovi - Strome - Wilson/Sheary
Mantha/Milano/Brown - Kuznetsov - Wilson/Sheary
Mantha/Milano/Brown - Backstrom - Oshie
Mantha/Milano/Brown - Dowd - Hathaway

Is probably their best lineup, unless you want to slide in Mojo and Eller somewhere, which I'm not as sold on but I don't think it changes things up that much. Same with Hagelin. Outside of Ovi, Wilson being your second best goal getter just doesn't feel good too me. Being healthy isn't gonna suddenly make Lavi like Mantha or make Kuznetsov not be a disapointment. Maybe the disconnect in what I, or the fanbase, feels Oshie and Backstrom are capable of vs. what the team believes? I'm not sure that either of them I bank on being one of your top 3 or 4 players anymore.

For defense, all healthy, you're running

Gus - Carlson
Orlov - Jensen
Fehervary - TVR

And outside maybe a really shutdown guy, I really like that lineup. Sure, Carlson is out for some time, but I'm not sure any top 4D you bring back is going to actually be able to replicate his offensive ability. You'd be paying a premium for even less value. If you want to replace his offense, just get forwards instead. The biggest issue I have right now is with them constantly riding Irwin, I'd much rather they go dumpster diving for a safe right show to replace him and pair with Fehervary then I am taking a swing on a big fish.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Pretty massive if and, even then, in terms of pure goal-scorers behind Ovechkin it's paper thin. The combination of both thin goal-scorers and inconsistent (at best) play-driving and creation from the center position makes it a pretty mediocre group. When they're defending with purpose and have the puck more often than not they've got a shot but they have to work awfully hard for what they get. Whereas truly higher-end teams are better able to dictate at will. They're past that stage now and overall don't quite execute systematically to the point where a more widescreen team approach is likely to carry them all that far.

Despite their issues they've still got a shot at the playoffs. But certainly IMO Florida has a higher top-end thanks to their closer-to-peak impact players. Even Buffalo offers a stiffer top-end group at this stage. So it seems mostly on team-wide engagement, defense and effort as the recipe for modest success. But it's a very thin margin. Maybe adding Klingberg for Mantha+ does more for them than adding a comparable valued forward (say Barbashev or maybe JVR). I can buy that. But it's still pretty far from a group I'd have any confidence in being any sharper or more deadly than recent playoff performances.

Kuemper has to go Tim Thomas in 2011 or JS Giguere in 2003 for them to have a shot with the regressions of Mantha and Kuznetsov and the injuries to Wilson and Carlson. We can mention all the cliches about getting hot at the right time and the best team doesn't always win but there's a ton that has to go right for this team, as constructed, to have a chance at anything.

 

[Langway]

... and for playoff success, this means having a group of players who can maintain their form, composure and performance sufficiently well to win 4 of 7, and do so against a first-round opponent whose coach (i.e., Cooper or Montgomery) is more likely to make the right adjustments than Lavi.

Those teams are also exceedingly likely to add further quality pieces so, yeah, hard to favorable good odds. Even last year with Florida handing them a great opportunity and seemingly veering toward implosion they couldn't take advantage of it. Against this Boston team, perhaps with their Last Dance and after adding further? Tough for anyone I suspect. I'd give them slightly better odds against Carolina but over a seven-game series it's hard to imagine the Caps having the stamina. Something quick and shocking, largely backed by Kuemper is about all I'd think they may have in them. Still have to make it first.

This year so far all that's mainly different is that goalending, Strome, Milano & Gus but those skaters don't really play a playoff style hustle or pace game. They're neither all that physical nor fleet of foot to expect them to be all that beneficial as far as play-driving goes. They could get on a roll, get some bounces and the like but that group on their own I doubt significantly improves their chances.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

When GMBM is referring to the team being deep at forwards, he has to be talking quantity and not quality.

After departing the playoffs last year in the first round courtesy of the Panthers. GMBM addressed one of the glaring issues for the team, the goaltending. However, they never addressed nor could they really what I refer to as the Verhaeghe factor. Speed kills and it killed the Caps last season in the playoffs and will continue to until this team gets younger and faster. Hence, the best way to address this is via the draft and prospects, ours and there's.

 

[YippieKaey]

If this team gets Carlson, Ovi, Bäckström and Kuzy performing at their max levels it's a team that can make a bit of noise in the playoffs. Given that Carlson is out, Kuzy is thinking about something else, Bäckström hasn't skated for a year and Ovi is 37 i dont think that's going to happen.

 

[Jags]

If this team gets Carlson, Ovi, Bäckström and Kuzy performing at their max levels it's a team that can make a bit of noise in the playoffs.

Totally agree. The team has the tools to compete, but some are busted and others haven't been sharpened since 2018.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Hi Caps. Sabres fan coming in peace.

I'm curious about Orlov.

What's his role on the team this season and how is he handling it? What's the plan moving forward, do you want to re-sign him, do you want to dump him? What do you think he's worth at the deadline and UFA?

He’s their best overall defenseman and part of their shutdown pair. He’s been a little shakier since he’s been hurt but he’s been a legitimate top pairing defenseman for years and one of the more underrated players in the league.

We all want him back but if he’s not in their plans they need to trade him. He’d be the best rental defenseman on the market but a sizable margin and would go for a 1st+.

 

[Raikkonen]

Hath is a warrior but if he's resigned it should be very short

If this team gets Carlson, Ovi, Bäckström and Kuzy performing at their max levels it's a team that can make a bit of noise in the playoffs. Given that Carlson is out, Kuzy is thinking about something else, Bäckström hasn't skated for a year and Ovi is 37 i dont think that's going to happen.

Thats not going to happen

Should sell a bit and make the team younger before next season

 

[Ridley Simon]

Pretty massive if and, even then, in terms of pure goal-scorers behind Ovechkin it's paper thin. The combination of both thin goal-scorers and inconsistent (at best) play-driving and creation from the center position makes it a pretty mediocre group. When they're defending with purpose and have the puck more often than not they've got a shot but they have to work awfully hard for what they get. Whereas truly higher-end teams are better able to dictate at will. They're past that stage now and overall don't quite execute systematically to the point where a more widescreen team approach is likely to carry them all that far.

Despite their issues they've still got a shot at the playoffs. But certainly IMO Florida has a higher top-end thanks to their closer-to-peak impact players. Even Buffalo offers a stiffer top-end group at this stage. So it seems mostly on team-wide engagement, defense and effort as the recipe for modest success. But it's a very thin margin. Maybe adding Klingberg for Mantha+ does more for them than adding a comparable valued forward (say Barbashev or maybe JVR). I can buy that. But it's still pretty far from a group I'd have any confidence in being any sharper or more deadly than recent playoff performances.

So….. you’re out on this years team? No need to mince words?

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Jakob Chychrun a healthy scratch for the Yotes tonight. After all the discussions here from Langway and some others about needing to address the D, I wouldn't be surprised that GMBM pull such an acquisition off. He's just 24 (will be 25 in March) but such an acquisition would also be an indicator of how bad Carlson's injury might be.

Curious what it would cost though.

 

[Langway]

So….. you’re out on this years team? No need to mince words?

A hobbled Oshie makes it tough to believe they'd have enough punch without significant further investment. MacLellan did mention that lingering injuries overall are a big X factor. Maybe the trajectory changes with how labored Oshie has been lately and they otherwise show enough for him to be aggressive. It can be argued that at some point for Oshie's betterment it may be better to shut him down. One thing leading to another injury and what seem like could be permanent limitations make it hard to expect more than admirably toughing it out.

They'll battle to be sure. But an overtaxed blueline over time to go along with an inconsistent offense leaves little room for error. The break came at a great time but sustaining a high level defensively will be a big challenge. They're going to need some recalibration by the deadline at least to make it a bit easier on themselves.

 

[Raikkonen]

They need defender, thats for sure, and not the reclamation level one

 

[Devil Dancer]

So….. you’re out on this years team? No need to mince words?

Is anyone really in on this year's team? They're only consistently competitive with the best teams in the league when Ovie is playing like a Hart candidate, which happened for a (very entertaining) month this year.

 

[Marshall]

Large thread is large, so I can't find which poster said it before (maybe @Ridley Simon ?) but playing Big against a Big Team in Big Team's barn is exactly why you give Kuempfel the Big . That's what you're paying for.

(Odd capitalizations and goatlender name misspelling are mine. And I may be paraphrasing.)

 

[Ridley Simon]

Is anyone really in on this year's team? They're only consistently competitive with the best teams in the league when Ovie is playing like a Hart candidate, which happened for a (very entertaining) month this year.

I’m always in on the team. Until they are dead (eliminated), I will think they have a chance. Watched hockey for some 45 years now, we all know that anything can happen.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

He’s their best overall defenseman and part of their shutdown pair. He’s been a little shakier since he’s been hurt but he’s been a legitimate top pairing defenseman for years and one of the more underrated players in the league.

We all want him back but if he’s not in their plans they need to trade him. He’d be the best rental defenseman on the market but a sizable margin and would go for a 1st+.

You must be talking about Orlov from 2016 -2021 because he is nowhere close to our top defensemen and shutdown guy this season.

 

[Brian23]

You must be talking about Orlov from 2016 -2021 because he is nowhere close to our top defensemen and shutdown guy this season.

I guess you missed the part about

He’s been a little shakier since he’s been hurt

Nothing he said was false, and as a pure defenseman he's been that guy leading the team for a long time. It wasn't just Niskanen doing the shutting down.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

You must be talking about Orlov from 2016 -2021 because he is nowhere close to our top defensemen and shutdown guy this season.

He absolutely was before he got hurt. And even with his dip in play since he got hurt he's still been very good. You can see how dominant he was last year in the second chart.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

I guess you missed the part about


Nothing he said was false, and as a pure defenseman he's been that guy leading the team for a long time. It wasn't just Niskanen doing the shutting down.

A little shakier since he’s been hurt is an understatement. Most players step it up in their contract season. Still waiting to see that from Orlov, fancy stats graphics be damned.

 

[DWGie26]

Is anyone really in on this year's team? They're only consistently competitive with the best teams in the league when Ovie is playing like a Hart candidate, which happened for a (very entertaining) month this year.

I have been in on the team all year. I think they have the pieces to have a legit punchers choice. I am fully aware of history the last few years that a lot of people point to but a lot is different this year. Right now we aren’t playing well so easy to sway the tide.

I have also been very vocal about not trading first round pick or some of our NHL prospects to get an older player. I’ll add to that point that i don’t want the depth pieces this year either unless JC74 isn’t coming back (which team knows what that answer is) and we need to pick up a RD. But no forwards, and no left dee Needed. We have that depth in hershey.

I am probably more interested now (than early in the year) to sell off one or two pieces if the return is way above expectations. Mantha, Eller, Hath in that order. Wouldn’t trade any dee or goalie. Wouldn’t trade Sheary.

 

[YippieKaey]

I have been in on the team all year. I think they have the pieces to have a legit punchers choice. I am fully aware of history the last few years that a lot of people point to but a lot is different this year. Right now we aren’t playing well so easy to sway the tide.

I have also been very vocal about not trading first round pick or some of our NHL prospects to get an older player. I’ll add to that point that i don’t want the depth pieces this year either unless JC74 isn’t coming back (which team knows what that answer is) and we need to pick up a RD. But no forwards, and no left dee Needed. We have that depth in hershey.

I am probably more interested now (than early in the year) to sell off one or two pieces if the return is way above expectations. Mantha, Eller, Hath in that order. Wouldn’t trade any dee or goalie. Wouldn’t trade Sheary.

What is different? This year feels like a repeat if last year. Better goaltending, worse everything else.

 

[DWGie26]

What is different? This year feels like a repeat if last year. Better goaltending, worse everything else.

Better goaltending is a really big thing. We have some younger legs in lineup with Milano and even NAK. Protas as well even though he is on outside looking in. We are deeper as we have gotten healthy. We need Wilson, Dowd, and JC74 as well, but still seems like we are healthy. Our youth has gotten better and we probably have 5 legit players in AHL who can play in NHL if injuries occur. We are a veteran team that knows how to win.

I still think we can easily get on a roll and find a playoff groove to make some noise. I think we can still move 1 or 2 of the guys I mentioned and still have a punchers choice.