Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[Langway]

Very tight. The five remaining head-to-head games against NYI/FLA just might do it one way or another.

 

[g00n]

Very tight. The five remaining head-to-head games against NYI/FLA just might do it one way or another.

This is the same conclusion I came to. They probably need over 60% points % from here on out. Preferably 65%+

 

[BiPolar Caps]

NHL Trade Deadline, Friday March 3 at 3:00 PM.

Capitals have 8 games to play till then. Five home, 3 road. Two against the Hurricanes, two against the Ducks, Panthers, Red Wings, Rangers and Sabres.

I'm envisioning maybe garnering 8 points from those 8 games. The Bruins game from the other day was an anomaly, there'll be no repeat of that if the Caps make the playoffs and face them in the first round.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Regarding the pending UFAs, I like Hathaway as much as everyone else, but he's at the pinnacle of his career right now in value. That value is in what he might return in assets as well as what he's looking for in his next contract which might be his last. This has a Jay Beagle scenario written all over it.

These UFAs are not frozen in time or stuck in amber/tree resin. They're all 30 and older. Get something for them while you can.

Notice I've only been discussing the UFA forwards. I would like them to resign Orlov and Jensen if possible.

 

[bacchist]

Regarding the pending UFAs, I like Hathaway as much as everyone else, but he's at the pinnacle of his career right now in value. That value is in what he might return in assets as well as what he's looking for in his next contract which might be his last. This has a Jay Beagle scenario written all over it.

These UFAs are not frozen in time or stuck in amber/tree resin. They're all 30 and older. Get something for them while you can.

Notice I've only been discussing the UFA forwards. I would like them to resign Orlov and Jensen if possible.

You might be right, but it still pains me to read speculation about shipping one of the few bright spots most nights. Hathaway is one of the few guys you can count on every night.

 

[Hivemind]

Regarding the pending UFAs, I like Hathaway as much as everyone else, but he's at the pinnacle of his career right now in value. That value is in what he might return in assets as well as what he's looking for in his next contract which might be his last. This has a Jay Beagle scenario written all over it.

These UFAs are not frozen in time or stuck in amber/tree resin. They're all 30 and older. Get something for them while you can.

Notice I've only been discussing the UFA forwards. I would like them to resign Orlov and Jensen if possible.

Full support to this post.

 

[Langway]

Rifling through the schedule quickly it's tough to come up with the point totals needed. They're going to have to both pick up the gimmes and show pretty well against playoff level opponents. Hard to expect that on a consistent basis as-is.

Again, they're going to need a depth defender at least...someone capable of playing more than 8-10 minutes a night during a grueling stretch of games so that their top guys aren't gassed. One D injury at this point to one of their top five and it may be curtains.

 

[g00n]

I don't understand the "sell high" mentality wrt pro sports. It's not the stock market. The goal isn't to maximize return in trades it's to build a winning team of players. You're not trying to time the market. You still get value from the players, even if it's not PEAK value, for years beyond their apex.

Hathaway seems like a guy that helps in that goal. Especially with all the injury problems at RW.

 

[pman25]

I'd pull the trigger on trading Hathaway or Sheary. They shouldn't be coming back and teams will value their respective roles. Hathaway will be wanted as an agitator for the 4th line. Maybe an Edmonton or Toronto or Colorado. A guy who can take away the focus from star players and make it about him. It's amazing how teams fall into his trap every single game

Sheary likewise has a versatility and that "Stanley Cup Resume" and could go to a team that likes to shuffle lines. He will fit in anywhere.

Opens up spots to play Protas, Snively, or McMichael or maybe sign Ethen Frank and see what he has to offer

 

[g00n]

I'd pull the trigger on trading Hathaway or Sheary. They shouldn't be coming back and teams will value their respective roles. Hathaway will be wanted as an agitator for the 4th line. Maybe an Edmonton or Toronto or Colorado. A guy who can take away the focus from star players and make it about him. It's amazing how teams fall into his trap every single game

Sheary likewise has a versatility and that "Stanley Cup Resume" and could go to a team that likes to shuffle lines. He will fit in anywhere.

Opens up spots to play Protas, Snively, or McMichael or maybe sign Ethen Frank and see what he has to offer

Hathaway and Sheary are cheap and underrated so you have to consider keeping them. They're both 1.5M going into UFA. If they're asking north of 2.25M for some long term deal you have to start reconsidering whether to replace them from within, just in case they Hagelin.

$2M/yr for max 3yrs wouldn't be the end of the world for those guys, imo.

 

[pman25]

I'm gonna be upset if Jensen or Orlov are dumped for a 2nd rd pick. Their value should be higher, but we aren't playing in Montreal and don't have the benefit of a mediasphere that can hype up assets to inflate their trade values (see Ben Chiarot)

 

[pman25]

Hathaway and Sheary are cheap and underrated so you have to consider keeping them. They're both 1.5M going into UFA. If they're asking north of 2.25M for some long term deal you have to start reconsidering whether to replace them from within, just in case they Hagelin.

$2M/yr for max 3yrs wouldn't be the end of the world for those guys, imo.

Cheap is also why they are attractive deadline assets. You could extract a high pick from a cap strapped deadline team that needs a quality roster payer. We could even retain down to $750 for each if a team REALLY has no cap space (Edmonton)

Hathaway is unique and I'd probably keep him but also someone mentioned his breed are a bit unique so he could be getting a Beagle/Clutterbuck type contract, so no thanks to that. But Sheary type players shouldn't be too hard to find, probably better off trying an internal promotion like Snively/McMichael/Frank anyway. Also Sheary's offense has really dried up over the last 15 games.

 

[g00n]

Cheap is also why they are attractive deadline assets. You could extract a high pick from a cap strapped deadline team that needs a quality roster payer. We could even retain down to $750 for each if a team REALLY has no cap space (Edmonton)

Hathaway is unique and I'd probably keep him but also someone mentioned his breed are a bit unique so he could be getting a Beagle/Clutterbuck type contract, so no thanks to that. But Sheary type players shouldn't be too hard to find, probably better off trying an internal promotion like Snively/McMichael/Frank anyway. Also Sheary's offense has really dried up over the last 15 games.

We're not selling at the deadline unless we completely tank over the next 2 weeks, though.

And IMO it's unlikely we do that, so we're probably not moving these cheap UFAs unless it's part of some big "hockey deal" that upgrades a position significantly.

I'm not sure why some posters here are insisting we must get value for our UFAs instead of letting them "walk for nothing". We got contracted value from them during their time here. Other teams let contracts expire. There's no GM standard that says you have to sell off all your UFAs if you're not favored to win the Cup.

If it does come down to a selling situation via February bedshitting then we probably won't see a firesale, either. Some guys will be moved and others who they believe are still in their next 3-5yr plan will probably be tendered offers in the offseason. Whether they've priced themselves off the team or not remains to be seen.

IMO Gmbm isn't going to offer stupid Hagelin style contracts to anyone anymore. The next big money, long-term contract could be Orlov but aside from that it might not be anyone even in the organization right now.

 

[pman25]

We're not selling at the deadline unless we completely tank over the next 2 weeks, though.

And IMO it's unlikely we do that, so we're probably not moving these cheap UFAs unless it's part of some big "hockey deal" that upgrades a position significantly.

I'm not sure why some posters here are insisting we must get value for our UFAs instead of letting them "walk for nothing". We got contracted value from them during their time here. Other teams let contracts expire. There's no GM standard that says you have to sell off all your UFAs if you're not favored to win the Cup.

That's why I also only mentioned Sheary/Hathaway. These guys are internally replaceable today. We already have too many forwards and more that are NHL ready down in the AHL. You don't have to go full sell mode (although I'm not necessarily against that either) but if someone offers you a a pair of 2nds for these guys, yeah I'm taking that!

 

[Langway]

Opens up spots to play Protas, Snively, or McMichael or maybe sign Ethen Frank and see what he has to offer

More likely it would be Protas & Malenstyn or some other generic waiver wire grinder rather than giving a softer, untested skilled player a shot down the stretch. The thing about strategically selling is they don't seem to have the confidence in internal solutions to seamlessly integrate them in any sort of significant role. They lack the finesse, attention to detail and high grade options to execute that. They'd just be rotational players mostly, half-heartedly getting a shot but probably not cementing a key role.

They could maybe patch together Hathaway's roles alright. Malenstyn could kill penalties and perhaps agitate a bit. Sheary's production has dropped significantly. He's got a mere goal and two assists in the last 15 games and seems hardly noticeable. But Lavi having faith in any Hershey scorer seems pretty unlikely. They'd top out at 10 minutes a night and quickly be stapled to the bench in any meaningful game late. The alignment for a flexible shuffling of priorities in-season is not really present so hard to expect anything but more of the same. They don't seem to have the capacity to operate in any other fashion.

Back to the playoff picture, one thing in their favor is that Florida is both asset and cap space poor. They may need to even subtract a player to activate Hornqvist/Duclair. Still possible they make a cheap pick-up or two but not a team poised to add much. Buffalo has loads of flexibility to add for the hell of it. They probably should absorb some salary strategically and give their developing core a chance. NYI may not be done quite yet up front either. Still some room left, even if it's likely not another big fish.

 

[g00n]

That's why I also only mentioned Sheary/Hathaway. These guys are internally replaceable today. We already have too many forwards and more that are NHL ready down in the AHL. You don't have to go full sell mode (although I'm not necessarily against that either) but if someone offers you a a pair of 2nds for these guys, yeah I'm taking that!

Sure I'd possibly take a high 2nd for either guy if we're trending downward by the TDL and it's looking like a playoff miss. But I doubt those things all happen. We'll see.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

My value and perhaps a bit conservative for the pending UFAs would be:

Hathaway - a 2nd and a third, I'm using the Curtis Glencross comparison (yeah we gave up too much for him and they're not the same style of player) as his style has value to teams competing in the playoffs. What he'll be looking for in his next contract, the Capitals will not be interested, hence Jay Beagle.​

Eller - 3rd rounder, he's not a top 6 forward. His ship needs to sail.​

Sheary - 3rd rounder, I think his size my be a detriment to his value. Our Swiss Army knife but we may have similar players coming up in the likes of Snively and Frank.​

Johansson - 3rd rounder and I could still see MAJO resigning with the Caps if they're interested at the same salary that he's currently getting. I think he wants to finish his career as a Capital and with his buddy Backstrom.​

​

So that's one 2nd and 4 thirds.​

 

[Devil Dancer]

Has The Post named Pell's replacement yet?

 

[BiPolar Caps]

This is all about the management of assets. It's already been demonstrated what bad management of assets looks like with trading Chandler Stephenson to Vegas for a 5th round pick for salary cap reasons because GMBM opted to sign the likes of Richard Panik and Brendan Leipsic the previous off season and the trading of Jonas Siegenthaler for a third round pick for cap reasons and Chara blocking his playing time.

Clue #1, just because you can doesn't mean you need to spend to the cap.
Clue #2, if you trusted to draft players, then trust them to play for you and not wallow in the AHL or in the press box.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

I know the Rangers Vitali Kravtsov has been in Drury's dog house, but what's the story with him? Is he a head case, the Rangers version of Anthony Mantha or just in need of a change of scenery?

 

[Jags]

I think the question remains: do they believe they're obligated to Ovechkin to not punt on a season?
To sell would be an admission and an acceptance that the party is over

I think we should give Ovi more credit than that. If we're trending in the wrong direction and are strategic sellers at the deadline, I think he'd be okay with that if Mac got out a whiteboard and showed him how we parlay that into a stronger position next year.

So if he lays out the plan and says -- just a hypothetical example here -- that we can't afford to keep Jensen next season but could get a serious asset or two that we can turn into an overall upgrade, I think Ovi would be good with that kind of move. As long as he's aware of the plan and the plan is compete, he'll be okay. If he was a MeMeMe kind of guy like some stars seem to be, maybe he'd take it wrong, but we know Ovi is a team guy. He celebrates hard for everyone. He's also no dummy -- he'll understand if you take the time to lay out our best way to take a real shot at a Cup.

He won't want to go all-in with a pair of threes if you can show him a real plan to assemble a better hand next year.

 

[crazy8888]

I know the Rangers Vitali Kravtsov has been in Drury's dog house, but what's the story with him? Is he a head case, the Rangers version of Anthony Mantha or just in need of a change of scenery?

Not sure what you mean by head case. Everyone's issue with Mantha is laziness and reluctance to use his size.

As for Kravstov, who knows. Not sure why Mantha is a comparison. But yes change of scenery is desperately needed. Not sure about Rangers fans and Kravtsov but i sure am tired of seeing Mantha.

 

[Jags]

Come on, most people hate on these guys constantly, and yet think they’re gonna bring some great return?

If you're riding hide into a solid playoff position, you keep your Connollys and DSPs and look to add more. If we continue to play as we have so far this calendar year -- overall less than the pace we need to make it -- then selling those guys is a no-brainer. Sheary, MoJo, and Hathaway could easily have the kind of impact to a contender that those guys had for us in 2018.

It wouldn't be a firesale. We wouldn't move ALL of the guys we'd realistically be willing to trade. We'd keep a team together and just move the most valuable pieces we figure to lose next year anyway and whatever depth we don't need that could generate return.

And make no mistake, a number of those guys would fetch better than a 4th, anything better than that is good in this year's draft, and acquiring a number of those picks would be a great way to move up for the right player(s), or swap for assets we can use now. I don't think anyone here really advocates moving good players for nothing, just because. The "Trade everyone you can for whatever you can" comments are the fringe nuts that just like making noise.

 

[Jags]

Spending their way out of it isn't the solution either. Spend $9M on Larkin and it's just going to create structural issues elsewhere.

If all you're doing is taking on that salary and jettisoning whatever you have to to pay for it, sure. You're absolutely right. But if you strategically offload Kuznetsov and Mantha, or there are behind-the-scenes indicators that Oshie or Backstrom may retire, or there's a taker for Carlson, and so on...?

There are so many things that might be in play in the coming months in addition to our litany of expiring contracts. Spending could become a viable approach. Might even become necessary.

I wouldn't mind seeing BMac demonstrate some willingness to part with the many parts of our current "core" that are no longer getting it done. I like our GM, but I'd like him even more if a saw him aiming to correct his weaknesses.

You might be right, but it still pains me to read speculation about shipping one of the few bright spots most nights. Hathaway is one of the few guys you can count on every night.

He'll be 32 this year. IF we trend in the wrong direction over the next 2+ weeks, he's a guy that could yield a nice pick along with a roster spot we could use in a more future-facing and cost effective way.

 

[g00n]

This is all about the management of assets. It's already been demonstrated what bad management of assets looks like with trading Chandler Stephenson to Vegas for a 5th round pick for salary cap reasons because GMBM opted to sign the likes of Richard Panik and Brendan Leipsic the previous off season and the trading of Jonas Siegenthaler for a third round pick for cap reasons and Chara blocking his playing time.

Clue #1, just because you can doesn't mean you need to spend to the cap.
Clue #2, if you trusted to draft players, then trust them to play for you and not wallow in the AHL or in the press box.

Every single fanbase can pluck out a few examples of good and bad moves by their GMs. Doesn't mean ours is somehow shitty at "management of assets".

Again, I think part of that management is getting value from your players while not sending the message "you are a commodity we're going to flip as soon as we can".

RE: Clue 1, this fanbase bitched about spending for years. Now we have an owner who opens up the pocketbook every single season, and that's a bad thing? Why??

Clue 2: There are several reasons to draft a player. Not all draft picks are going to play for the big club.

What I see is many people going by some guiding principles and f*** everything else: nobody over 30 is worth a contract, and nobody who isn't blazing fast should have a spot on the roster. Everything else is rationalized around those principles.