Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[g00n]

Report: Capitals willing to listen to offers for Lars Eller

The Washington Capitals got forwards Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson back from long-term injuries on January 8 and it has created a…

russianmachineneverbreaks.com

 

[Artie Fufkin]

Big picture:
Caps being the oldest team, have had the busiest schedule, with the most man-games lost (2nd most now), and 3 more road games played than home, are still somehow well-positioned to make the Playoffs;
down the stretch they'll have 16 home and 13 away games

Before the season most predicted 3rd/WC/Bubble team (and that's without the constant cavalcade of injuries), and that's right where we're at

10 gm splits:
01-10 games: 5-4-1 (11 pts.)
11-20 games: 2-6-2 (6 pts.)
21-30 games: 7-2-1 (15 pts.)
31-40 games: 7-1-2 (16 pts.)
41-50 games: 4-6-0 (8 pts.)
51-60 (in progress): 2-1-0 (4 pts.)

if Caps can average 12 pts per split that'll put them at 95 pts. (granting them 3 of the 4 pts from gms 81/82)
Anything better than that and it'll be looking pretty good for Playoff positioning

Yes, they have performed admirably, but a deeper dive needs to be done on the schedule. The Caps played 5 back to backs in the first 53 games, but will play 5 back to backs in the last 29 games. The first two back to backs after the break are afternoons. That’s when age and injuries will have an impact.

They are also running out of games against weak opponents. Even then, those aren’t gimmes. Case in point, the San Jose game on Super Bowl Sunday. The Caps will be playing the second game of a back to back, less than 24 hours after playing the best team on the road, while the Sharks will have been off for 2 days.

They may be set up to be in the playoffs right now, but it could change very quickly.

 

[um]

Yes, they have performed admirably, but a deeper dive needs to be done on the schedule. The Caps played 5 back to backs in the first 53 games, but will play 5 back to backs in the last 29 games. The first two back to backs after the break are afternoons. That’s when age and injuries will have an impact.

They are also running out of games against weak opponents. Even then, those aren’t gimmes. Case in point, the San Jose game on Super Bowl Sunday. The Caps will be playing the second game of a back to back, less than 24 hours after playing the best team on the road, while the Sharks will have been off for 2 days.

They may be set up to be in the playoffs right now, but it could change very quickly.

its surprising they have so many back to backs left given they've played more games than most teams.

It certainly doesn't bode well for the Caps. That and afternoon games.

 

[Peeri]

Report: Capitals willing to listen to offers for Lars Eller

The Washington Capitals got forwards Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson back from long-term injuries on January 8 and it has created a…

russianmachineneverbreaks.com

Can't post in the roster thread so posting here.

“Washington, I’m told, would entertain offers for [Eller] if they could get help on defense, where the injury to John Carlson has really thinned the ranks,” Duhatschek writes.

I don't know about you, but I want help in the offensive department over defense. I would probably rather keep Eller who can chip in on PK and faceoffs. Then move on from him in the summer rather than overpaying for some defenseman at the deadline.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

“Washington, I’m told, would entertain offers for [Eller] if they could get help on defense, where the injury to John Carlson has really thinned the ranks,” Duhatschek writes.

I don't know about you, but I want help in the offensive department over defense. I would probably rather keep Eller who can chip in on PK and faceoffs. Then move on from him in the summer rather than overpaying for some defenseman at the deadline.

Yup….this concerns me….yes D is an issue, but scoring is also a problem. Maybe Eller for a D is just low hanging fruit in sports reporting/prognostication….

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I would love to see AA play more. But agree he hasn’t looked good. I said when he came off of IR they should have sent him to Hershey So he could play games. I still don’t think he would get claimed and JC74 comes back they should definitely send him down

I mean I know some are looking to shit all over every decision Lavi and Co make, but damn….watch the games people (not you). Irwin is steady and shitty…..AA undercooked and is unsteady….he looks damn good on one shift, and looks like a bobble head on the next.

Honestly what I almost always want when a rookie D is playing…..is that the guy isn’t noticeable…..he’s quietly doing his primary job (play D) and not making glaring errors….AA was noticeable at times for the bad rookie reasons……Irwin is just what he is……a 7 NHL D…..you know what you’re getting from him…it’s known, expected and you can manage around him usually…

I think Lavi gave him (AA) the looks earlier and they may continue to shuffle those two around for now as the other flops for a game or 2…

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

“Washington, I’m told, would entertain offers for [Eller] if they could get help on defense, where the injury to John Carlson has really thinned the ranks,” Duhatschek writes.

I don't know about you, but I want help in the offensive department over defense. I would probably rather keep Eller who can chip in on PK and faceoffs. Then move on from him in the summer rather than overpaying for some defenseman at the deadline.

There’s no reason to keep Eller on this team past the deadline. He’s not going to make a difference for this team this year and he doesn’t have a role when the team is healthy. He’s on track for his worst season statistically in Washington as he’s pacing for 11 goals and 25 points this year. His time is done here and even if they trade him for futures that’s a win as Protas can take his role this season and do a better job at it. Being a few percentage points higher than Dowd at face offs and being able to play a minute or two of PK time per game is not worth keeping him.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

If we can get a 2nd rounder back that we traded for Connor Brown in a Eller trade I’ll say that’s a win

 

[g00n]

I don't want to see 2022 playoffs Eller again. I'm ok with just about any return...whatever's the going rate for a boat anchor.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

If we can get a 2nd rounder back that we traded for Connor Brown in a Eller trade I’ll say that’s a win

Not likely.

 

[twabby]

Unless negotiations with Jensen and/or Orlov aren't going well I simply don't see the need for a defender outside of maybe a 6D they trust more than Irwin. But that really shouldn't hinge on what they do with Eller.

It's going to be a tough deadline because they really shouldn't be in the market for rentals. Even if they sneak into the postseason this year they're longshots to do any damage so they really need to look at players that can help get them into the postseason this year but more importantly be a foundational piece going forward for the next few years.

In that respect I think they should move Eller ASAP so that they clear cap space and have time to make a significant trade. Horvat was just moved so you have to think some other dominos are going to start to fall soon. Washington can't be left in the dust by other teams making moves in advance of the TDL.

 

[Langway]

Not for nothing but one of Washington's stronger team rankings is the PK, where Eller is second to Dowd is SHTOI per game among forwards. His GA/60 is quite good in that role as well. So as much as there's a center logjam and he's not likely in their plans going forward it's hard to see subtracting him for a token, modest 6D upgrade as a worthwhile swap. If it's for a more significant upgrade, someone that would supplant TVR on the top pair again and allow Carlson the entire regular season to recover, then that makes sense. Otherwise it's still hard to see the logic. Mantha relatively speaking is even less essential at this point and clearing him out now serves additional cap planning purposes.

Maybe there's no dump market for Mantha without either taking a contract back or attaching assets. Who knows. But that's probably still the ticket to move.

 

[twabby]

Not for nothing but one of Washington's stronger team rankings is the PK, where Eller is second to Dowd is SHTOI per game among forwards. His GA/60 is quite good in that role as well. So as much as there's a center logjam and he's not likely in their plans going forward it's hard to see subtracting him for a token, modest 6D upgrade as a worthwhile swap. If it's for a more significant upgrade, someone that would supplant TVR on the top pair again and allow Carlson the entire regular season to recover, then that makes sense. Otherwise it's still hard to see the logic. Mantha relatively speaking is even less essential at this point and clearing him out now serves additional cap planning purposes.

Eller's PK impact is largely neutral according to GAR models. He also takes a ton of penalties which also neutralizes his PK ability to an extent. I don't really think they should be holding onto Eller because of his PKing ability.

I suspect the market for Mantha is going to be only tanking teams who will be hoping for a bit of a sweetener to take on his contract. Hard to see any playoff teams wanting to take Mantha's contract at this point, though I could be wrong. Eller at least theoretically should return something positive in a trade, even if it's not much.

 

[Langway]

Yeah but I would think if Lavi has any say he's going to want to keep Eller for now. The main problem is that PK role, particularly in light of uncertainty around Wilson and more or less needing to not use Oshie & Backstrom in those roles to reduce further wear and tear. Subtract them and serious candidates for prominent roles thin pretty fast. I don't think they're going to want to lean too heavily on Sheary or Kuznetsov. Johansson could do more but it's Wilson probably not being ready to be a top unit guy this season (even when "healthy") that makes it suspect.

Had they tried and felt more confident in using either Protas or a theoretically functional Mantha they might be able to swing it. There's also Malenstyn but then he's largely untested as well. They could sacrifice the PK reverting more toward average for the sake of more offense but I don't know if it would pay off. With Lavi I'm not sure it makes any sense to deviate too much from the ultra-simplified checking style anyway. Upgrade over Irwin with someone more skilled and that might be about it.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

There’s no reason to keep Eller on this team past the deadline. He’s not going to make a difference for this team this year and he doesn’t have a role when the team is healthy. He’s on track for his worst season statistically in Washington as he’s pacing for 11 goals and 25 points this year. His time is done here and even if they trade him for futures that’s a win as Protas can take his role this season and do a better job at it. Being a few percentage points higher than Dowd at face offs and being able to play a minute or two of PK time per game is not worth keeping him.

If we want to back door tank, trading the only guy who can win a face off will help.


I’m curious of his value…..

 

[twabby]

Yeah but I would think if Lavi has any say he's going to want to keep Eller for now. The main problem is that PK role, particularly in light of uncertainty around Wilson and more or less needing to not use Oshie & Backstrom in those roles to reduce further wear and tear. Subtract them and serious candidates for prominent roles thin pretty fast. I don't think they're going to want to lean too heavily on Sheary or Kuznetsov. Johansson could do more but it's Wilson probably not being ready to be a top unit guy this season (even when "healthy") that makes it suspect.

Had they tried and felt more confident in using either Protas or a theoretically functional Mantha they might be able to swing it. There's also Malenstyn but then he's largely untested as well. They could sacrifice the PK reverting more toward average for the sake of more offense but I don't know if it would pay off. With Lavi I'm not sure it makes any sense to deviate too much from the ultra-simplified checking style anyway. Upgrade over Irwin with someone more skilled and that might be about it.

I’d hope MacLellan wouldn’t give Laviolette much if any say in these types of decisions any more. He still doesn’t have a contract next year for one. And also the last time a trade was made where he likely had significant input was the Vrana for Mantha swap. Say what you will about Vrana’s personal troubles and his clashing with coaches, but clearly Mantha wasn’t the guy they should have targeted and as a result are out at least a first round pick as a result. Laviolette also personally lured Chara to DC, to the overall detriment of the team in the medium to long term.

A longer term vision is needed, and coaches pretty much by definition are only interested in the short-term. If an Eller trade at or before the TDL positions them to make a more significant move then it has to be done.

 

[Brian23]

Report: Capitals willing to listen to offers for Lars Eller

The Washington Capitals got forwards Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson back from long-term injuries on January 8 and it has created a…

russianmachineneverbreaks.com

Can't post in the roster thread so posting here.

Man, I am just so curious what this team pictures as what they want back, how they plan to replace him, or what they view as their "ideal" team going forward. Feel like the last few big swings by GMBM have not gelled with how Lavi views/wants to play the game so I'm also curious if this is something Lavi really wants or is supportive of. Feel like, if he's soured on Eller, it must have happened pretty quickly with the return of Backstrom.

 

[Rayquaza64]

I don't want to see 2022 playoffs Eller again. I'm ok with just about any return...whatever's the going rate for a boat anchor.

a footlong from subway

 

[g00n]

a footlong from subway

Deal.

 

[Raikkonen]

random thought

their three solid RWs with PK capabilities aren't functioning actually

Wilson
brown
oshie

big blow

 

[Langway]

A longer term vision is needed, and coaches pretty much by definition are only interested in the short-term. If an Eller trade at or before the TDL positions them to make a more significant move then it has to be done.

I don't see much from the front office suggesting any larger a scope. They're fixated on remaining a playoff team and if that requires ignoring multiple elephants in the room so be it I guess. Clearing out Mantha's salary for next season is probably wise, killing more birds with one trade than an Eller deal would. Other than that it seems like everything of more lasting scope is getting punted until the off-season (if then even).

Their first big question is the plan for Carlson. His check-up at the end of the month should determine next steps. If he's to return during the regular season then at least Eller will need to go (if not a bigger salary like Mantha). But if they rule him out for safety's sake or they plan to take it very slow that may open up a fair bit of flexibility. Overall I don't expect them to be boxed in by being unwilling to move someone like Eller. It seems more likely they just aren't decisive enough to aim that high to begin with. Or else they'd operate differently on a variety of levels. But, as far as this season goes, Lavi is likely consulted at least and they very likely are mindful of the importance of roles and the increased limitations of some of the vet forwards in capably covering for Eller.

We'll see. NYI adding Horvat ups the ante a tad. You know Boston & Carolina will be adding further. Buffalo should add modestly for the hell of it. Pittsburgh will be motivated. The Caps will need to follow suit to some extent. But I'm not expecting something massive unless circumstances continue to slide and they're more pressured into it.

 

[Raikkonen]

Carlson sitting half a season isn't good for his playoff performance too
I bet he plays at some moment

is Wilson expected to play again this season?

 

[Brian23]

Carlson sitting half a season isn't good for his playoff performance too
I bet he plays at some moment

Would actually disagree to an extent. Feel like the constant 22 to 24 minutes a night he's ridden throughout the year wears him down come playoff time.

He's got his own warts, but gotta think how hard he's ridden might be part of his playoff woes the last few years.

 

[Corby78]

Big picture:
Caps being the oldest team, have had the busiest schedule, with the most man-games lost (2nd most now), and 3 more road games played than home, are still somehow well-positioned to make the Playoffs;
down the stretch they'll have 16 home and 13 away games

Before the season most predicted 3rd/WC/Bubble team (and that's without the constant cavalcade of injuries), and that's right where we're at

10 gm splits:
01-10 games: 5-4-1 (11 pts.)
11-20 games: 2-6-2 (6 pts.)
21-30 games: 7-2-1 (15 pts.)
31-40 games: 7-1-2 (16 pts.)
41-50 games: 4-6-0 (8 pts.)
51-60 (in progress): 2-1-0 (4 pts.)

if Caps can average 12 pts per split that'll put them at 95 pts. (granting them 3 of the 4 pts from gms 81/82)
Anything better than that and it'll be looking pretty good for Playoff positioning

Problem if my math is correct, 0-50 games we didn’t meet that average

 

[Corby78]

Chasing the Horvat trade isn’t going to be a good idea. We are coming up to an important off-season and need to really look at what this team will be in the next couple years. I don’t want to go chase some TDL deal to lose more futures and maybe lose to Boston 4-1 if we are lucky.