Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 3: Drop the puck!

[bacchist]

Power play needs work.

 

[Corby78]

New beat writer incoming. Pell was great, interested to see where she lands.

She did a good job, liked her better than Tariq or whatever his name was. Wish the post could keep good writers

 

[Hivemind]

She did a good job, liked her better than Tariq or whatever his name was. Wish the post could keep good writers

The Post can keep good writers.... in the positions it actually pays for. The Caps beat writer gig is clearly not one of their salary priorities.

 

[usiel]

New beat writer incoming. Pell was great, interested to see where she lands.

Wonder if the potential WaPo staff cuts are a factor but my gut tells me probably not. Being a capitals fan since '89 I feel she had a good stint as a beat writer. Wish her all the success moving forward and I sincerely enjoyed her articles (maybe a slight step forward into a bit sharper a pen but she is early in her career).

This might be antiquated but I do remember the days beat writers stayed longer and could really have the confidence, based on their tenure, to be able to pin down with good questions, because of their tenure, that give an extra juice to their articles. Also NOT when they are about to exit stage left.

 

[Devil Dancer]

My only complaint about Pell is we didn't get a bombshell expose on her way out the door like the legend Katie.

Maybe they're just a better run org now and there's no juicy story to report. But that's so boring.

 

[Marshall]

Unpopular opinion warning:

I think Lavi and the coaching staff have done a great job keeping this team afloatish. This team with a lesser staff would be completely in the shitter (which it feels like some folks want, for whatever reason.) Do I always agree with his decisions? Of course not - I'd like to see Proto get a longer look in the top six, much like @usiel, but overall not catering to my prospect nerd wishes is the best course of action given the team-stated goal of contending for the Cup.

The coaching has not been perfect. The injuries have been - you come up with the word. But at least massive, and with a massive effect on the team. A shortage is usually followed by a surplus, so for a bit the Caps had almost too many forwards, and the balance can't be easy to find, nor can the right fits. Meanwhile, the he defense has been solid, and the the goatlending showed the Caps still have an eye for talent. Working in the new guys from the beginning of the season? Not as hard as trying to re-integrate high-value pieces back into the working mix, taking short-term pain in the hope of long-term gain.

I digress.

The Caps have had a metric shitload of issues this season - a few known, most not. That they are holding a WC spot, no matter how tenuously, is an accomplishment in my eyes, and the coaching has been a constant in that. Given the rope-a-dope posture the team has been in all season, I don't think the Caps could be in a much better position.

(Sorry for the half-rant, just been on my mind the past week.)

Unpopular opinion warning end. Please enjoy your day.

 

[Brian23]

It is kinda interesting the thoughts people had on the team coming in, and I feel like that's probably the decider on whether you think Lavi's and Co have done a good job or not.

Personally, I actually thought they had a really good team coming in and felt as if, even with the game lost to injury, had under preformed. It was probably also less that they were losing and more how they were losing.

 

[twabby]

Since it's a while until the next game, I think now is probably a good time to take a look at how all of the players are doing this year:

Spoiler: GAR chart for all Capitals

Spoiler: xGAR chart for all Capitals

Some slight differences between the two metrics, but overall the pattern is similar: Washington's depth is carrying them and their stars have struggled. No surprises of course, but it is pretty stark to see exactly how much this team is carried by guys like Dowd, Hathaway, Gustafsson, and Johansson.

I think Backstrom and Wilson should still be seen as "incomplete" because they've still only played a handful of games each. But guys like Eller, Oshie, Kuznetsov, and Mantha have all been varying degrees of bad. Given their current performances I think they need to find a way to move on from all 4 of the latter players by this offseason. The room might need a shakeup, but also these guys are just bad players nowadays. Freeing up $22.75M in cap space, even if it costs some futures to have teams take on these contracts, is probably worth it.

 

[Brian23]

Since it's a while until the next game, I think now is probably a good time to take a look at how all of the players are doing this year:

Spoiler: GAR chart for all Capitals

View attachment 644661

Spoiler: xGAR chart for all Capitals

View attachment 644663

Some slight differences between the two metrics, but overall the pattern is similar: Washington's depth is carrying them and their stars have struggled. No surprises of course, but it is pretty stark to see exactly how much this team is carried by guys like Dowd, Hathaway, Gustafsson, and Johansson.

I think Backstrom and Wilson should still be seen as "incomplete" because they've still only played a handful of games each. But guys like Eller, Oshie, Kuznetsov, and Mantha have all been varying degrees of bad. Given their current performances I think they need to find a way to move on from all 4 of the latter players by this offseason. The room might need a shakeup, but also these guys are just bad players nowadays. Freeing up $22.75M in cap space, even if it costs some futures to have teams take on these contracts, is probably worth it.

I was told AA was under cooked, that's why we have to keep playing Irwin.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I was told AA was under cooked, that's why we have to keep playing Irwin.

Maybe watch him in the games?

 

[twabby]

Maybe watch him in the games?

Under no circumstances should one watch the games.

 

[Peeri]

It's getting really ugly, our high paid vets are anchoring this team to the point that we could probably be better off. Also you have to give props for our last summer trade window, without guys like Milano and Strome we would be very likely be fighting for that last spot in the Metro.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Under no circumstances should one watch the games.

Agreed. What is wrong w people? Just look at the graphs and charts like any good capitalist.

Geez. It doesn’t need to be too hard, gang. Stop trying to take the fun and intrigue out of things.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

It is kinda interesting the thoughts people had on the team coming in, and I feel like that's probably the decider on whether you think Lavi's and Co have done a good job or not.

Personally, I actually thought they had a really good team coming in and felt as if, even with the game lost to injury, had under preformed. It was probably also less that they were losing and more how they were losing.

Yeah, this is good perspective. I think people see the names on the uniforms and expect that those guys will be the same guys that they’ve watched for 5, 10+ years. When that’s not the case the initial reaction is to blame the coach, blame the system, etc. The reality is, those guys are the same players in name and number only. Nick, Oshie, and Kuznetsov are not what they used to be. Mantha has gone from being a good two-way player who was really unlucky to a dud. Wilson has played in eight games since April. Ovechkin is a mutant but he’s best served now as a primary support piece. Carlson has been wrecked with injuries.

The irony in all of this is that this is the exact opposite problem that plagued them for years. For years they failed to surround their stars with an adequate supporting cast and now the supporting cast is championship caliber and the stars are old and broken.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It is kinda interesting the thoughts people had on the team coming in, and I feel like that's probably the decider on whether you think Lavi's and Co have done a good job or not.

Personally, I actually thought they had a really good team coming in and felt as if, even with the game lost to injury, had under preformed. It was probably also less that they were losing and more how they were losing.

They were a puncher‘s chance team BEFORE massive injury issues hit…..so…..yeah, I think he’s done pretty decent given the roster and events.

 

[Carlzner]

My only complaint about Pell is we didn't get a bombshell expose on her way out the door like the legend Katie.

Maybe they're just a better run org now and there's no juicy story to report. But that's so boring.

There's obviously an endless stream of things to argue about on here right now but it's nowhere near the level of disfunction that caused the Katie C article.

 

[HTFN]

Maybe watch him in the games?

Maybe you can explain what makes Irwin so much better since you're watching them both? Or is it as simple as "not playing = reasons" again?

Irwin's fully cooked and bad so what are we doing here?

 

[trick9]

What’s our record with Backstrom on and off the line-up? For this and last season. Feels deja vu that we somehow overcome his injury to have a great start to the season and the wheels come off when he comes back.

 

[crazy8888]

What’s our record with Backstrom on and off the line-up? For this and last season. Feels deja vu that we somehow overcome his injury to have a great start to the season and the wheels come off when he comes back.

Good point. Its pretty crazy how well the whole team speaks of him and how shitty they play when he is inserted back into the line up. Maybe they all just secretly do not like him? Joking of course. Im sure more realistic explanation is that its a combination of things, seasons usually go up and down its never really smooth sailing through 82 games. Odds are that they would be sucking now with or without him in the lineup.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Maybe you can explain what makes Irwin so much better since you're watching them both? Or is it as simple as "not playing = reasons" again?

Irwin's fully cooked and bad so what are we doing here?

I just thought AA looked a bit over his head his last few games….not that Irwin is “soooo much better”…..

 

[Brian23]

Maybe watch him in the games?

I have, I don't see a top 4 guy but he's easily good enough to be a 6th D on a team with it's 1D out. There's nothing Irwin does that's magically so much better then AA in my eyes. If all things are equal between them (or equal out) then you play the younger player.

 

[zappa4ever]

Big picture:
Caps being the oldest team, have had the busiest schedule, with the most man-games lost (2nd most now), and 3 more road games played than home, are still somehow well-positioned to make the Playoffs;
down the stretch they'll have 16 home and 13 away games

Before the season most predicted 3rd/WC/Bubble team (and that's without the constant cavalcade of injuries), and that's right where we're at

10 gm splits:
01-10 games: 5-4-1 (11 pts.)
11-20 games: 2-6-2 (6 pts.)
21-30 games: 7-2-1 (15 pts.)
31-40 games: 7-1-2 (16 pts.)
41-50 games: 4-6-0 (8 pts.)
51-60 (in progress): 2-1-0 (4 pts.)

if Caps can average 12 pts per split that'll put them at 95 pts. (granting them 3 of the 4 pts from gms 81/82)
Anything better than that and it'll be looking pretty good for Playoff positioning

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I have, I don't see a top 4 guy but he's easily good enough to be a 6th D on a team with it's 1D out. There's nothing Irwin does that's magically so much better then AA in my eyes. If all things are equal between them (or equal out) then you play the younger player.

That’s not what I see from him recently…I see an unready guy here who should be playing full time in Hershey (if not for waivers).

 

[DWGie26]

That’s not what I see from him recently…I see an unready guy here who should be playing full time in Hershey (if not for waivers).

I would love to see AA play more. But agree he hasn’t looked good. I said when he came off of IR they should have sent him to Hershey So he could play games. I still don’t think he would get claimed and JC74 comes back they should definitely send him down

 

[trick9]

Good point. Its pretty crazy how well the whole team speaks of him and how shitty they play when he is inserted back into the line up. Maybe they all just secretly do not like him? Joking of course. Im sure more realistic explanation is that its a combination of things, seasons usually go up and down its never really smooth sailing through 82 games. Odds are that they would be sucking now with or without him in the lineup.

I'm not sure what it is, but there is a noticeable difference in how they played before and after that.

Maybe they've been pushing ''win for Backstrom -thing'' all season long and now that he actually came back, they've taken their foot off the gas a little bit. Effort level seems to have gone down, all around. It did go down last season too when he came back but then it was more about replacing youth with older vets.