Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 1: Free Agent Edition

[Hivemind]

Our prospects are gonna be upset that they signed Erik Gustafson? Besides Alexeyev is hurt, who knows what Lucas Johansen is doing, and that leaves Tobias Geisser (unless you want Dylan Mcilrath).

Point is, what defense prospect is ready to compete vs Gustafson? It's not like he can't be sent to AHL if someone beats him out. If they can't beat out Gustafson then they aren't ready

If it was a fair fight between veterans and rookies for spots in the line-up, I would be more open to this mentality. But we’ve seen this team repeatedly favor veterans, and especially so under the current coaching administration.

Do I think Gustafsson, in particular, is a back breaking move in terms of blocking prospects? Not really, with AA hurt it’s a relatively low contest spot (with LuJo being the only serious internet contender for it). But the same mentality has hurt us in the past.

 

[HecticGlow]

I’m hoping that Jensen and Hathaway can both be signed to Sheary/TVR/Dowd-type contracts - maybe a slight pay rise over what they’re getting now, but nevertheless really good value for money for 2-4 years for solid depth pieces who are good guys in the room. Jensen’s toolkit and game should grade out well if he stays healthy, and if they can get him at under $3m AAV he can play anywhere in the top-6 without being seriously overpaid.

Orlov is the one who worries me more, as I can see a scenario in which he gets a significant raise this off season (or mid-season extension) despite the fact that he is probably paid fairly with his current AAV. It feels like we might overpay to stop him going to market, or we’ll sign him to a 6 or 7 year extension to keep the AAV down that will come back to bite us. He doesn’t play on this time like a top-2 defensemen, in terms of ice time or points, and I have a feeling he might be about to get paid like one. We’ll see.

Also noteworthy that Pronman doesn’t see Alexeyev as more than a PK-ing third pair D, and described him as ‘will get some NHL games’ being his most likely ceiling. That’s pretty disappointing, considering we used first round draft picks on him, Johansen and Samsonov without any of them (so far) showing first-round value. Also hoping Protas’s skating improves, as that seemed to be the thing Pronman felt was holding him back from making it as a full-time NHLer.

 

[g00n]

Coaches prefer veterans.

Stunning development.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

@Ridley Simon

Throwback memory that @txpd would recall fondly……

they used to show a regular highlight clip at US Air Arena/Cap Center that would show Rod Langway pinning (I forget exactly, was trying to find the clip) like 2 or 3 Islanders in deep in our zone, to the boards all by himself…..what a horse that guy was…

One of my favorite adult moments at a game was about 2008-10 (guesstimating), my buddies and I met Rod during the game, at a bar on the main concourse (just him and us there for a good 5 mins)…..he was so nice (possibly already enjoying himself lol)…

Not sure if I’ve told this story here before but we did a deal with Monumental a while ago and they hosted us at their VIP box for one of the games. Langway (the player, not the poster… I think) was in there and his entire job was to crush Bud Heavies and take pictures with fans and walk around the concourses before the game and during intermissions.

The dude was enormous and also a lot of fun to talk to. He had a tucked in Caps turtleneck and with light denim jeans and looked like a character straight out of Letterkenny. I should get that picture framed and put it somewhere in my house.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Not sure if I’ve told this story here before but we did a deal with Monumental a while ago and they hosted us at their VIP box for one of the games. Langway (the player, not the poster… I think) was in there and his entire job was to crush Bud Heavies and take pictures with fans and walk around the concourses before the game and during intermissions.

The dude was enormous and also a lot of fun to talk to. He had a tucked in Caps turtleneck and with light denim jeans and looked like a character straight out of Letterkenny. I should get that picture framed and put it somewhere in my house.

I went to school with his daughter - out of wedlock/marriage - from Pre-K through High School. Really cool guy.

 

[twabby]

I thought this was a good summary of playoff vs. non-playoff teams around the league based on GAR.

A few things stand out:

1. Goaltending is paramount. Obvious thing is obvious, but Washington getting Kuemper this offseason should really help their odds. Only Washington, Toronto, and Minnesota made the postseason last year with subpar goaltending. And all three we eliminated in the first round.

2. Washington doesn't really have high-end top 6 forwards, but neither do the other playoff teams in the Metro. I don't think the Strome acquisition will move Washington from a low-end top 6 to a high-end top 6, but he does move the needle. I suspect he will be quite impactful for Washington, and I wouldn't even be surprised if he challenges Kuznetsov for the 1C spot.

3. From a GAR standpoint Washington's top 4 D is legit. They would benefit greatly from an improved Fehervary or if TVR could enter the top 4, but Carlson (regular season version)/Orlov/Jensen are a good enough top 3 to win a Cup. Now if only Carlson would stop shitting the bed every postseason...

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I mean shit @twabby, many of us have had issues the goaltending for 2 seasons, and it was habitually minimized In response around here.

It was the easiest of eye tests….if you watch the games.

On point 2, I will be VERY surprised if Strome plays to a level that pushes Kuzy for 1C. I’d be more concerned Kuzy will have regressed badly again if that’s the case.

On point 3, pleasantly surprising.

 

[twabby]

I mean shit @twabby, many of us have had issues the goaltending for 2 seasons, and it was habitually minimized In response around here.

It was the easiest of eye tests….if you watch the games.

On point 2, I will be VERY surprised if Strome plays to a level that pushes Kuzy for 1C. I’d be more concerned Kuzy will have regressed badly again if that’s the case.

On point 3, pleasantly surprising.

I don’t think anyone has ever said goaltending isn’t the most important position. But rather that it’s the most unpredictable and inconsistent position. A guy like Kuemper hasn’t been available the past few offseasons. If someone was, then of course they should have signed him. But would it have been worth it to sign Linus Ullmark to a $5M AAV deal, for instance, last offseason? Even with Vanecek and Samsonov struggling it was difficult to see a UFA goalie that made sense before Kuemper hit the market.

I think Kuznetsov will likely be their best center but I think Strome will likely get time playing with guys like Ovechkin and Wilson, and should also get plenty of PP time. I’d be interested to see how Strome performs alongside these high-end wingers compared to Kuznetsov. Strome did well in Chicago alongside some good wingers, no reason to believe he can’t do the same in DC. Maybe it’d make sense to move Kuznetsov away from Ovechkin at some point during the season for lineup balance purposes if Strome can be a good complement for Ovechkin.

 

[g00n]

I don’t think anyone has ever said goaltending isn’t the most important position. But rather that it’s the most unpredictable and inconsistent position. A guy like Kuemper hasn’t been available the past few offseasons. If someone was, then of course they should have signed him. But would it have been worth it to sign Linus Ullmark to a $5M AAV deal, for instance, last offseason? Even with Vanecek and Samsonov struggling it was difficult to see a UFA goalie that made sense before Kuemper hit the market.

I think Kuznetsov will likely be their best center but I think Strome will likely get time playing with guys like Ovechkin and Wilson, and should also get plenty of PP time. I’d be interested to see how Strome performs alongside these high-end wingers compared to Kuznetsov. Strome did well in Chicago alongside some good wingers, no reason to believe he can’t do the same in DC. Maybe it’d make sense to move Kuznetsov away from Ovechkin at some point during the season for lineup balance purposes if Strome can be a good complement for Ovechkin.

You said goaltending didn't matter because it was random, or something to that effect. Maybe there's a nuance to this argument I missed, but most have said top goaltending (or at least a guy who gets hot in the playoffs) is critical.

 

[Calicaps]

We're officially 1 month from preseason.

 

[twabby]

You said goaltending didn't matter because it was random, or something to that effect. Maybe there's a nuance to this argument I missed, but most have said top goaltending (or at least a guy who gets hot in the playoffs) is critical.

I said that identifying a guy who can be consistently good and likely to get hot in the postseason is a fool’s errand, outside of top-end guys like Vasilevskiy, Shesterkin, Saros, Hellebuyck, and similar. Kuemper being available was a blessing because he belongs in the bottom end of this tier of top goaltenders. No one like him was available the past year or two.

I basically didn’t want them to do what Edmonton did this offseason and throw a 5x$5M contract at a guy with no track record just for the sake of change. Or do what Toronto did and trade for a guy who’s no good. Or entertain the idea of trading for John Gibson just because the current options aren’t cutting it. There’s opportunity cost with acquisitions and no one before Kuemper was really worth upgrading Vanecek/Samsonov, as much as that duo struggled.

 

[Langway]

The big question with Strome will be defensive play. It's why I tend to pencil him in with Mantha & Brown to best insulate him but he's still going to need to do it himself. We'll see if he meets the threshold needed to not be somewhat managed by Lavi. He's bigger and stronger than McMichael but pace and consistency will need to be there all over the ice. He's an intriguing skilled player but we'll see how well that meshes with their style of play. It's a closer to the vest game and may take some time to adjust to. It'd be great if he could make some of their wingers more productive offensively but knowing Lavi he's predominantly more likely to be a sticker for defensive effort compared to stellar offensive play with spotty defense. I'd wager his skating still very likely makes it hard to figure that he'd make for a better option with Ovechkin.

 

[usiel]

We're officially 1 month from preseason.

Had a lot of distractions this second half of August so nice to realize it is that close.

Personally looking forward to this season.

 

[pman25]

Dylan Strome could be very good and "break out" assuming he gets the opportunity to do so here. I could very well see it and then everyone makes fun of Chicago claiming "how could they let him go?!?"

 

[twabby]

The big question with Strome will be defensive play. It's why I tend to pencil him in with Mantha & Brown to best insulate him but he's still going to need to do it himself. We'll see if he meets the threshold needed to not be somewhat managed by Lavi. He's bigger and stronger than McMichael but pace and consistency will need to be there all over the ice. He's an intriguing skilled player but we'll see how well that meshes with their style of play. It's a closer to the vest game and may take some time to adjust to. It'd be great if he could make some of their wingers more productive offensively but knowing Lavi he's predominantly more likely to be a sticker for defensive effort compared to stellar offensive play with spotty defense. I'd wager his skating still very likely makes it hard to figure that he'd make for a better option with Ovechkin.

I share your concern with how Laviolette will view Strome. I could easily see him getting the 20-21 Kuznetsov treatment even if it really isn't earned.

I guess I'm still not sold on him being the defensive liability that Chicago fans say he is. The numbers see him as a perfectly cromulent defensive player, and certainly an improvement over Kuznetsov and Eller over the past 3 years in regards to 5v5 defense. Hopefully Laviolette doesn't have any pre-conceived notions of him being someone who needs to be sheltered.

You do bring up a good point regarding possibly needing a good skater centering Ovechkin. Probably more importantly they need someone who can carry the puck into the zone centering Ovechkin. According to the microstats Ovechkin was one of the least successful forwards in the league in terms of entering the zone last year, ranking in the 6th percentile of entry success percentage. Strome was pretty good at this same metric (70th percentile), however it was usually Kane or DeBrincat who entered the zone with the puck so Strome's overall entry effectiveness is probably not as good as the 70th percentile suggests.

Either way I assume they'll try Strome/Ovechkin at some point. Whether due to injury or just mid-game line blender, I'm interested to see how it works out. I think Strome is underrated by quite a few people and it wouldn't shock me to see him really solidify a top 6 role going forward if he's given a chance.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Really interested to see where CMM ends up fitting in.

He needs top-nine minutes every game. Better fit at C than Wing.

I would personally sell high on him and take an over-the-top move by grabbing someone like Miller with an extension in place.

If he is outplayed in camp by Laps or Protas, we are looking at a situation where his value will really fall if we send him back to Hershey after essentially graduating from the minors (even though he should probably have been there last season).

 

[Kuz]

Really interested to see where CMM ends up fitting in.

He needs top-nine minutes every game. Better fit at C than Wing.

I would personally sell high on him and take an over-the-top move by grabbing someone like Miller with an extension in place.

If he is outplayed in camp by Laps or Protas, we are looking at a situation where his value will really fall if we send him back to Hershey after essentially graduating from the minors (even though he should probably have been there last season).

If he doesnt deliever and management gets Low on him. I hope they try and use him up the lineup and hope he gets some production to boost his value and try to do a trade. StillnI dont think it will be a problem I believe CMM will be good and hope he gets enough minutes this year.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Had a lot of distractions this second half of August so nice to realize it is that close.

Personally looking forward to this season.

Agreed on all counts.

 

[Ridley Simon]

The big question with Strome will be defensive play. It's why I tend to pencil him in with Mantha & Brown to best insulate him but he's still going to need to do it himself. We'll see if he meets the threshold needed to not be somewhat managed by Lavi. He's bigger and stronger than McMichael but pace and consistency will need to be there all over the ice. He's an intriguing skilled player but we'll see how well that meshes with their style of play. It's a closer to the vest game and may take some time to adjust to. It'd be great if he could make some of their wingers more productive offensively but knowing Lavi he's predominantly more likely to be a sticker for defensive effort compared to stellar offensive play with spotty defense. I'd wager his skating still very likely makes it hard to figure that he'd make for a better option with Ovechkin.

Perhaps. But let’s not pretend Backstrom was a speedster….and Ovechkin did ok with him centering his line.

I’d like to see a lot of experimentation. IF Kuznetsov IS truly a top line C, I’d like to think he could make his line mates better. So mixing and matching for optimal results makes sense.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Really interested to see where CMM ends up fitting in.

He needs top-nine minutes every game. Better fit at C than Wing.

I would personally sell high on him and take an over-the-top move by grabbing someone like Miller with an extension in place.

If he is outplayed in camp by Laps or Protas, we are looking at a situation where his value will really fall if we send him back to Hershey after essentially graduating from the minors (even though he should probably have been there last season).

I’m not against a CMM trade. But I’d rather it be for a defenseman. Miller seems like overkill at this point, and that assume a “we never see Backstrom again” mindset, IMO.

Strome is an RFA. So he’s essentially ours if we want him. Eller isn’t, but that’s ok. Dowd and Kuz are locked up. We may not need another C. Much less a top 6 one.

With the way the D is set up at end of year, a signed top 4D would be massive (and better for this year, IMO).

 

[Langway]

Perhaps. But let’s not pretend Backstrom was a speedster….and Ovechkin did ok with him centering his line.

I’d like to see a lot of experimentation. IF Kuznetsov IS truly a top line C, I’d like to think he could make his line mates better. So mixing and matching for optimal results makes sense.

Sure but it's not just about speed but also positional layering, anticipation and consistent focus. Backstrom had all of that in spades from the very beginning whereas I don't know if that's ever been Strome's forte. He's got a nice frame to work with and certainly all of the offensive upside you'd want. It's the tenacity, consistency and all-around game where we'll need to see the necessary commitment to be a key piece on a winner. He'll have all of the support he needs to excel so it's really up to him. You'd hope the environment itself is enough to spur him on to at least an acceptable level.

One aspect that could work with Strome+Ovechkin is a heavier offensive zone start percentage, which Strome was very used to in CHI on their top line. It's a very similar usage to that of 8/92 the past few years. So instead perhaps they could try to use Kuznetsov more defensively. I don't tend to think that Strome was a mere byproduct of Kane/DeBrincat but it's also somewhat hard to judge given the lack of quality linemate options otherwise. His most frequent linemates otherwise the past couple seasons were Kubalik & Dach. His underlying performance away from the top line seems fine but the outcomes weren't there and it's very likely not just his fault. Either way in this case certainly you'd gamble on the offensive upside and hope to teach the defensive end rather than squeeze offense out of a more limited option.

 

[Raikkonen]

I think both "Kuz is not on 1C level of play" or "they try to use Kuz more defensively" will mean season goes down the drain. He needs to be driving offense anyhow.

 

[Jags]

Dylan Strome could be very good and "break out" assuming he gets the opportunity to do so here. I could very well see it and then everyone makes fun of Chicago claiming "how could they let him go?!?"

There's definitely reason for optimism, but we do have to keep in mind both that he was playing alongside crazy talent in Chicago and that a good part of his appeal in free agency was the low-risk nature of him being restricted. If the league saw him as a can't-miss guy worthy of centering that kind of talent, he'd have been gone on day one of free agency and received way more money and term.

So the optimism just needs to be measured. I've watched him play a bunch and it never seemed to me that he was being carried. He had the offensive IQ to run with those guys, no question. We've seen plenty of players at 1RW here in DC that were just plain out of their depth playing beside the likes of 8/19/92, regardless of effort. That's not the case with Strome. He sees all the moving pieces, moves intelligently to space with and without the puck, and can dish and finish as needed. It just remains to be seen what his compete level will be and how he'll gel here with his linemates and coaches.

 

[Jags]

Sure but it's not just about speed but also positional layering, anticipation and consistent focus.

True. I've been thinking about this a lot recently in regard to Kuznetsov. We talk so much about making sure we get the most out of Ovechkin, but I wonder how much of a disservice that does to his skilled linemates. We know for a fact that Backstrom has another gear and a nice shot when it comes to scoring goals, but the overall versatility of his offensive game was no doubt limited by the no-brainer "Get it to Ovi!" mission whenever that dude is on the ice.

It worked out fine for all involved, of course, but as long as Ovi keeps getting his looks, I'd be interested in making sure that we're using Kuznetsov to maximum benefit, too. He's an enigmatic, off-tempo, versatile guy that's easily one of the shiftiest skaters in the league. I'm not sure how wise it is to always deploy him on a line whose approach is so one-dimensional. I think it limits his creativity. We saw the downsides of letting him do his own thing during the Rierden years, but I wonder if he wouldn't be better supervised by a better coach but playing alongside more versatile wings.

So if Ovi/Strome can keep Ovi's 5v5 production where it needs to be, our offense might be more dynamic with our most skilled center playing away from 8. Maybe not, but food for thought...

 

[Langway]

I'm not sure I buy that centers are overly deferential to Ovechkin when playing with him. Earlier on last season when that line was pumping it was all three going and playing balanced, taking what teams gave them. Backstrom has declined 5v5 and Kuznetsov is on record admitting he does take it relatively easy day-to-day compared to some desperate to be great. Kuznetsov is more of an aesthetics guy. Not to suggest they should try to force him into a Selke type role but he does have the skill set to pivot to being more of a Fedorov-like two-way player if he wants to. We've seen it very briefly at times like when he's been tasked to go up against McDavid and it's already started to some extent with his PK role. The past few years 8/92 have been very heavily tilted toward OZ starts and I mainly wonder if 92 can handle something more balanced in that regard, esp. with more sound two-way wingers and with Backstrom out. Again, if he wants to he's capable of driving offense while handling some tougher minutes.