Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 1: Free Agent Edition

[twabby]

Carlson will likely decline now but he’s still had really good seasons post 2018 and award voting reveals that. Dude was runner up to the Norris not long ago.

I think it’s a little knee jerky to single out Carlson for his poor playoff play when so many other Caps haven done the same. Even the goat goal scorer.

I'm not saying Carlson is the only Capital that has struggled in the playoffs since 2018, but I do think he has struggled the most relative to expectations and that his struggles have hurt the team the most (at least among skaters).

Ovechkin hasn't been great the past two postseasons either, no doubts there. But he was excellent the two prior years so he gets a bit more slack from me.

I do hope if they have a playoff spot locked up in the final month that they rest players. I don't know if players like Carlson and Ovechkin are simply exhausted by the end of the year but it can't hurt for them to take some maintenance days/weeks at the end of the year if they are a playoff lock already.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It would be one thing if Carlson‘s disappointment in the postseason since ‘18 wasn‘t so widely shared by the majority of the roster players each year….


Until you get us a top offense/top pair replacement….you grin and accept him for what he is.

 

[twabby]

how many healthy and on the right side of the ice? 2-ish? Same place you could argue is fluke territory?

can't have this explained to you too many more times.

He played 40 minutes on the left side of the ice paired with Jensen in 2019. He played 80 minutes on the right side along one of Siegenthaler/Orlov/Orpik/Djoos. It was a stupid coaching decision to have Carlson on the left side, but it didn't last for even half of the series.

Again, if injuries are to blame then maybe he's just injury prone at this point. I don't really care what the explanation is for him falling apart in the postseason, all I see is 4 years of below replacement level play. Are these 4 fluky years, and the 5th time is going to be the charm? It seems hard to believe. I was told that the 4th time would be the charm before the Florida series, and then the Florida series happened.

 

[Cappy76]

I’m with twabs on this one - Carlson has been a shell of what he can be in every post season since the cup I’m not sure anyone else on the team in that span can say that. He was routinely out there for goals against this year vs florida. I can remember multiple times off the top of my head where I said of course Carlson is out there when bone headed mistakes were being made. He’s burned out by the end of every season lately it seems.

 

[twabby]

It would be one thing if Carlson‘s disappointment in the postseason since ‘18 wasn‘t so widely shared by the majority of the roster players each year….


Until you get us a top offense/top pair replacement….you grin and accept him for what he is.

But these struggles and the extent of these struggles aren't shared by any of the other key players except maybe Kuznetsov and Jakub Vrana before he was shipped out. Ovechkin was great in 2018-19 and 2019-20, and was decent against Boston. Orlov was very good until the Florida series. Backstrom was very good in 18-19 and then was injured for the past 3 postseasons, and he even gutted out a decent series against Florida with his hip injury. The 4th line has been good in general. Kuznetsov has had good games here and there.

Other players have shown flashes at the very least. Other players have had great games. Other players have performed even when injured. When's the last time Carlson has impressed in the postseason? It's been a long time! Long enough where I think it's not a fluke.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

But these struggles and the extent of these struggles aren't shared by any of the other key players except Kuznetsov (maybe) and Vrana, the latter having been shipped out. Ovechkin was great in 2018-19 and 2019-20, and was decent against Boston. Orlov was very good until the Florida series. Backstrom was very good in 18-19 and then was injured for the past 3 postseasons. The 4th line has been good in general.

Other players have shown flashes at the very least. Other players have had great games. When's the last time Carlson has impressed in the postseason? It's been a long time! Long enough where I think it's not a fluke.

A more detailed analysis with production would easily show many players struggled.

 

[g00n]

Carlson was dogshit in the playoffs almost every year the last few postseasons and he was doubly dogshit down the stretch vs FLA.

If he has another playoff series like that he needs to go. I'm skeptical.

 

[Corby78]

There has been very little positive about caps playoff hockey at all since 2018. So while pointing out flaws in carlson is valid, he is far from a scapegoat.

 

[twabby]

A more detailed analysis with production would easily show many players struggled.

Carlson had a combined 1.5 points/60 at 5v5 in the regular season from 2018-19 to 2021-2022. He's at 0.3 points/60 in those 4 postseasons. That's Ben Chiarot territory.

The only player who has seen a dropoff similar to that has been Kuznetsov, who went from 2.23 to 1.06. But again, Kuznetsov at least showed something this postseason with 2 goals and an assist at 5v5. Carlson had another bagel.

Players regular season -> postseason 5v5 points/60 since 2018:

Carlson: 1.50 to 0.30 (-1.20)
Kuznetsov: 2.23 to 1.06 (-1.17)
Ovechkin: 2.36 to 2.12 (-0.24)
Backstrom: 1.86 to 1.74 (-0.12)
Wilson: 1.88 to 1.3 (-0.58)
Oshie: 1.86 to 1.81 (-0.07)
Eller: 1.72 to 0.87 (-0.85)
Orlov: 1.00 to 1.04 (+0.04)

So again, most players have struggled to meet their regular season scoring rates. But Carlson's scoring rate has dropped the most, and the only player close to him (Kuznetsov) at least did something to buck the trend this postseason and maybe give us hope going forward.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Regular season to postseason comparisons mean nothing….if they’re not hitting their career playoff production averages, it’s a down year in my eyes in the postseason.


I expect ~6/7+ pts a series from Ovy, Backstrom, Kuzy, on average, Carlson ~5 per series and so on down the lineup.

 

[HTFN]

I’m with twabs on this one - Carlson has been a shell of what he can be in every post season since the cup I’m not sure anyone else on the team in that span can say that. He was routinely out there for goals against this year vs florida. I can remember multiple times off the top of my head where I said of course Carlson is out there when bone headed mistakes were being made. He’s burned out by the end of every season lately it seems.

I'm not on team Carlson either, I think I said after this year I was done with it but it's still a little irksome to lump all the performances together, including some really bad coaching decisions en route to losing a series, when talking about the player. Carlson being burnt out and limping into the playoffs isn't exactly a Carlson only problem. I might also be done watching it but I'm not blaming him and him alone.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'm not on team Carlson either, I think I said after this year I was done with it but it's still a little irksome to lump all the performances together, including some really bad coaching decisions en route to losing a series, when talking about the player. Carlson being burnt out and limping into the playoffs isn't exactly a Carlson only problem. I might also be done watching it but I'm not blaming him and him alone.

this…

 

[Cappy76]

I'm not on team Carlson either, I think I said after this year I was done with it but it's still a little irksome to lump all the performances together, including some really bad coaching decisions en route to losing a series, when talking about the player. Carlson being burnt out and limping into the playoffs isn't exactly a Carlson only problem. I might also be done watching it but I'm not blaming him and him alone.

I don’t blame the playoff failures purely on him just not a fan of paying a dman 8 million for what he brings in the playoffs the last 4 years

 

[DWGie26]

No doubt JC74 has been worn out. To me to shelter his minutes, play him and Fever as second pair with JC74 getting a lot of PP time. Orlov and Jensen are in contract years so play the shit out of them. Maybe you create situation where they crush it and then have high salary demands. To me that is the biggest risk, but I’m still not convinced either of them get top pair dollars because neither play on the PP.

 

[Cappy76]

No doubt JC74 has been worn out. To me to shelter his minutes, play him and Fever as second pair with JC74 getting a lot of PP time. Orlov and Jensen are in contract years so play the shit out of them. Maybe you create situation where they crush it and then have high salary demands. To me that is the biggest risk, but I’m still not convinced either of them get top pair dollars because neither play on the PP.

My problem with that is we shouldn’t have to shelter our dman that’s paid like a #1

 

[um]

My problem with that is we shouldn’t have to shelter our dman that’s paid like a #1

I don't think we need to shelter him, but I also don't understand why older NHL players have to play as many games as possible when the teams playoff position is already secure.

Can't we do a tiny version of load management like the NBA?

I'm still pissed off we squeezed everything possible out of Chara before the playoffs even began, I will never understand that.

 

[Cappy76]

I don't think we need to shelter him, but I also don't understand why older NHL players have to play as many games as possible when the teams playoff position is already secure.

Can't we do a tiny version of load management like the NBA?

I'm still pissed off we squeezed everything possible out of Chara before the playoffs even began, I will never understand that.

The post I replied to said to shelter and even play him 2nd line minutes. Paying him that much and not being able to put him out in all situations at any time is not good.

 

[um]

The post I replied to you said to shelter and even play him 2nd line minutes. Paying him that much and not being able to put him out in all situations at any time is not good.

Yea I don't think that is necessary, he doesn't need to be sheltered.

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

What happened to Hags eye? Did they have to put it back in its socket?

 

[Rayquaza64]

hope to see alexeyev in a contact jersey soon, would like to see one of him or lujo win the 3LD battle, would be pretty disappointed to see gustafsson win it (although i expect him too because it would kill laviolette to cut a veteran for a rookie)

 

[Calicaps]

hope to see alexeyev in a contact jersey soon, would like to see one of him or lujo win the 3LD battle, would be pretty disappointed to see gustafsson win it (although i expect him too because it would kill laviolette to cut a veteran for a rookie)

If the rookie legitimately outplays the veteran, Levi will play the rookie. But it doesn't count if the rookie is only better in sheltered minutes, tailored to foster their success (which is where a rookie should start in order to build confidence). The kids will have to grow into the role and prove they can be better in all situations. If they can, they'll get the job. But if not, you go with the vet because duh.

 

[Langway]

 

[twabby]

So is Horvat gone now?

I didn’t expect Miller to sign in Vancouver after all of the smoke about him getting traded.

 

[Devil Dancer]

Looks like he has two right feet.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

So is Horvat gone now?

I didn’t expect Miller to sign in Vancouver after all of the smoke about him getting traded.

Combination of buyer beware with the flake Miller + no buyers at fair value + Miller realizing he’s not coveted League-wide by GMs (no greener grass)….