Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 1: Free Agent Edition

[Roshi]

I think you guys are too critical on JC.

Yeah he hasnt been at his best game last few years for the 4-7 game window. He also was hurt atleast two times, and played with a rookie last year. He has been great regular season and im confident he can hit the gear in poffs too.

JC is one of those guys who need the right setting to excel. He is still offensively elite, and has shown he can be good defensively aswell. Letting him go is a situation where you absolutely need to have a guy to replace him - unless you are rebuilding.

 

[Langway]

It's problematic that they've never focused on replacing the leadership and intangibles Niskanen & Orpik brought. You can't use cap space as an excuse when they had $4M to give Schultz. They're fortunate Jensen has solidified as a solid piece but he's still a bit wanting as a supreme shutdown type. Orlov has also struggled to make the same impact in the playoffs when room through the neutral zone is a lot less open. It's a bit thin. Fehervary brings some of the intensity of those vets but it takes time for most to take charge defensively in the playoffs to that extent. It's asking a lot.

The defensive mix hasn't held up under more intense scrutiny. Goaltending hasn't helped and I can buy perhaps with more reliability their rhythm, consistency and confidence improves. The underlying issue is they haven't had much of an answer executing systematically to buy themselves more room for their skill to make a difference. Their skating isn't great of course but they have to compensate for it structurally and mentally and their experience in general hasn't been enough of an asset. You'd think a team with Tom Wilson would be better at figuring that out just through sheer will. He was a huge absence against Florida but that's one series.

They've not had the smarts to figure out how to not get closed down pretty routinely offensively. Hard to figure Strome & Brown crack that code or that as-is the defense is improved. Goaltending can be the ultimate equalizer but MacLellan himself admitted it hasn't been the entire issue. Some of their breakdowns in front of them have been so poor it very likely wouldn't have mattered. How a pretty set in their ways veteran core group and coaching staff manages to shake up some of those persistent limitations is something I'll be most interested in tracking this season. Mantha alone is perhaps THE test case in how to best maximize a skill set that really should be able to find more ways to get interior and/or create more room.

 

[Ridley Simon]

It's problematic that they've never focused on replacing the leadership and intangibles Niskanen & Orpik brought. You can't use cap space as an excuse when they had $4M to give Schultz. They're fortunate Jensen has solidified as a solid piece but he's still a bit wanting as a supreme shutdown type. Orlov has also struggled to make the same impact in the playoffs when room through the neutral zone is a lot less open. It's a bit thin. Fehervary brings some of the intensity of those vets but it takes time for most to take charge defensively in the playoffs to that extent. It's asking a lot.

The defensive mix hasn't held up under more intense scrutiny. Goaltending hasn't helped and I can buy perhaps with more reliability their rhythm, consistency and confidence improves. The underlying issue is they haven't had much of an answer executing systematically to buy themselves more room for their skill to make a difference. Their skating isn't great of course but they have to compensate for it structurally and mentally and their experience in general hasn't been enough of an asset. You'd think a team with Tom Wilson would be better at figuring that out just through sheer will. He was a huge absence against Florida but that's one series.

They've not had the smarts to figure out how to not get closed down pretty routinely offensively. Hard to figure Strome & Brown crack that code or that as-is the defense is improved. Goaltending can be the ultimate equalizer but MacLellan himself admitted it hasn't been the entire issue. Some of their breakdowns in front of them have been so poor it very likely wouldn't have mattered. How a pretty set in their ways veteran core group and coaching staff manages to shake up some of those persistent limitations is something I'll be most interested in tracking this season. Mantha alone is perhaps THE test case in how to best maximize a skill set that really should be able to find more ways to get interior and/or create more room.

They focused on it (Dillon & Chara), it just didn’t work correctly. Least, not as far as the playoffs are concerned.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

They focused on it (Dillon & Chara), it just didn’t work correctly. Least, not as far as the playoffs are concerned.

I don’t think Dillon was that kind of move….Chara yes.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I don’t think Dillon was that kind of move….Chara yes.

Dillon was known as a leader of the Sharks. Unquestionably. If we want to throw Niskanen into the “leadership and intangible” mix, then Dillon is every bit the same.

Orpik is a whole other level. Guys like him don’t come around often. At least ones that still truly “can play” (and that was highly debated everywhere, whether he could still play).

IMO, Dillon = Niskanen; Chara = Orpik.

But not as well in the end, obviously.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Dillon was known as a leader of the Sharks. Unquestionably. If we want to throw Niskanen into the “leadership and intangible” mix, then Dillon is every bit the same.

Orpik is a whole other level. Guys like him don’t come around often. At least ones that still truly “can play” (and that was highly debated everywhere, whether he could still play).

IMO, Dillon = Niskanen; Chara = Orpik.

But not as well in the end, obviously.

He may have been a “leader“ there but wasn’t brought here for that IMO. He was just part of the long, desperate search for a Carlson partner.

Dillon has won nothing, has no winning pedigree, nor much individual playoff success.

Hard for me to believe this was the guy they expected to be filling an Orpik/Nisky vacuum in that regard.

 

[Langway]

Dillon wasn't fast or well-rounded enough to be a Niskanen type. Both were closer to Orpik type throwbacks. It's not nothing but the biggest financial outlay being Schultz was a miscalculation. They value speed and the ability to close but positional reads are equally important. Skimming on awareness/balance/sense isn't a good idea given deficits elsewhere in that regard.

I'm probably guilty of romanticizing the '18 team, a team that had their share of ups and downs. Timing is everything. That team was great at smothering and it still has to be the primary recipe. It's hard to have faith in them executing at the needed level when their headline D in Carlson hasn't come close lately in displaying that capacity at a high enough level. And then their center play also plays a big hand not linking up all facets of play as fluidly as you'd like.

 

[Ridley Simon]

He may have been a “leader“ there but wasn’t brought here for that IMO. He was just part of the long, desperate search for a Carlson partner.

Dillon has won nothing, has no winning pedigree, nor much individual playoff success.

Hard for me to believe this was the guy they expected to be filling an Orpik/Nisky vacuum in that regard.

What had Niskanen won before he came to DC?

Squadoosh.

Same as Dillon. Sure, they play the game differently, but their pedigree and success levels were very similar. If you don’t see that, then ok. Opinions are opinions.

Remember, all I was quoting was Langways commentary about the Orpik/Niskanen “leadership and intangibles” quotient. Nothing more.

Dillon wasn't fast or well-rounded enough to be a Niskanen type. Both were closer to Orpik type throwbacks. It's not nothing but the biggest financial outlay being Schultz was a miscalculation. They value speed and the ability to close but positional reads are equally important. Skimming on awareness/balance/sense isn't a good idea given deficits elsewhere in that regard.

I'm probably guilty of romanticizing the '18 team, a team that had their share of ups and downs. Timing is everything. That team was great at smothering and it still has to be the primary recipe. It's hard to have faith in them executing at the needed level when their headline D in Carlson hasn't come close lately in displaying that capacity at a high enough level. And then their center play also plays a big hand not linking up all facets of play as fluidly as you'd like.

I wasn’t comparing Dillon to Niskanen in playing styles. Simply your comment that GMBM hasn’t tried to replace the Orpik/Niskanen “leadership and intangibles”.

He did try to replace it. He just didn’t succeed in ways that mattered for the big picture (save the Chara “rub off” on Jensen….which I fully believe is a thing)

 

[twabby]

IMO the problem is and remains their inability to generate sustained offense in the postseason. Over the last 4 postseasons they generate 1.92 xGF/60 at 5v5, and 1.72 GF/60 at 5v5. That's third worst and dead last, respectively. They're more middling defensively, though I suspect this is mainly due to their inability to sustain any sort of offensive zone time rather than lacking a defensively stout blue line. And their postseason goaltending has been comical, though they did pretty much all they could this offseason to address that hole.

I don't really understand how getting another Niskanen or Orpik solves these scoring problems. Niskanen drove offense a bit, but a player like him is hardly the missing piece for eliminating these scoring woes. The most important blue line addition they could make is to trade for pre-2018 John Carlson.

 

[Langway]

Yes, the defensive mix is hardly the entire inventory of their issues. I made no such claim. The leadership angle is mostly about fortitude in maybe hanging around a bit longer. It isn't a game-changer but realistically I don't know what is in the realistic realm of possibility in that regard. Players decline. There's a buy-in needed that you wonder if they have in them minus the existential pressure faced pre-2018. It was such a burden for them to carry for so long that without it it's a different organizational dynamic. It should have liberated them to play more loose and confident but they seem to have steered too far into complacency instead. The fundamentally flat 5v5 offense against teams that can defend in the playoffs is an issue that's hard to see a solution to without something drastic in scope. I don't know if there's a realistic solution absent more significant roster changes and even I'm not sure their approach isn't also problematic. Absent genius from MacLellan it may be too much to ask them to elevate to the level needed both due to the absence of that pressure to perform/improve and also their own unavoidable decline.

They need ascending talents in the worst way from an energy and enthusiasm standpoint. Strome was a very worthwhile gamble but they need much more. I'm not sure Brown can be that gamer gem for them but I'd be happy to be proven wrong. He's got some of the elements. At 28 he's likely done improving but maybe with a competitive team in a contract year there's a bit more there.

The biggest thing that stands out in their approach to roster construction is that if they're going to be locked into the core they need to be extremely selective how they complement. It needs to be something forward-looking, realistic about age curves and continually tweaked as needed. It's a really tough line to walk. Mostly they really need to hit on some picks again. It's got to be the lifeblood that gives them the shot in the arm they'll need.

 

[Roshi]

If we like to romantisize the 18 team, im not sure it was much about sustained offense or puck control. That team was deadly on counter attacks and broken plays, while like Langway put it, smothering the center ice and our blue line for quick rushes against. We were opportunistic. Enemy needed to decide if they wanted to take a risk at losing the puck in the danger zone, or dump it in and battle in the corners.

Trotz even said he encouraged guys to play passive with the puck when we had the possession. And play agressive when we didnt have the puck.

Kempny and Niskanen both played their prime hockey and were doing lots of good stuff for the way the defence played out. I dont think either of them was especially fast or strong or skilled, just readed the game and especially the system very well which gave their pairings some more leash to do what they were great at.

Since that we havent really found a guy who would compliment Carlsons strenghts the same way, but atleast Jensen is stepping up big way and if Fehervary keeps growing we might be capable to copy some of that, but one thing was also how they d’ed up as a team. The distances, the communication, the chemistry. The style as a whole. Some of that falls into to leadership of what a guy like Orpik brings in, some for the trust in your backbone towards your goalie, some just overall confidence and comfort level. We were a bit too comfortable after the cup, and we have been a bit too uncomfortable the past couple years.

As for offence, we could still be a bad ass counter attack team for some of the personnel choices, but we have had a shift to more of a puck possession thinking. We have been moving the puck battles from our blueline into the deep corner of enemy, and that obvously gives less open ice for rushes. Its also less risky. And we have the guys for that too (Mantha, Willy,
Brown, Oshie etc) but im not sure it compliments snipers like Ovie as much, as that possession thing isnt really his game. But then again we also had Vrana, Bura and Connolly who were more about rushes than control, so the change up is natural as the personnel changes.

I think Trotz system was kind of luring enemy to trap themself in our blueline or below it, pressure the puck and strike back fast. Laviolette is more about grinding it the ”old school”, protect the net and attack as a group. Reirden was a jack of all trades and master of none, which worked poorly for our set of highly profilic player types.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

What had Niskanen won before he came to DC?

Squadoosh.

Same as Dillon. Sure, they play the game differently, but their pedigree and success levels were very similar. If you don’t see that, then ok. Opinions are opinions.

Remember, all I was quoting was Langways commentary about the Orpik/Niskanen “leadership and intangibles” quotient. Nothing more.


I wasn’t comparing Dillon to Niskanen in playing styles. Simply your comment that GMBM hasn’t tried to replace the Orpik/Niskanen “leadership and intangibles”.

He did try to replace it. He just didn’t succeed in ways that mattered for the big picture (save the Chara “rub off” on Jensen….which I fully believe is a thing)

Niskanen’s leadership was but a fraction of what he was brought here for.…..so no, they were not seeking to replace that which others brought/bring. Orpik created an obvious vacuum in leadership, not so much from Nisky IMO.

Anyway it wasn’t me who lumped them into the leadership thing. We miss Nisky’s top-4 ability far more than anything like his leadership….

 

[Langway]

Niskanen led by example sacrificing and putting the team first. He led all skaters in blocks in the '18 run and ate every match-up they threw at him. IMO anyone that plays such a role is a leader by default. Niskanen & Orpik both were key cogs in the culture shift that started in '15. Dillon & Chara were similar in terms of toughness but less athletic, less capable of playing a highly effective shutdown game and limited offensively.

It's that jack-of-all-trades hard minute type that they've lacked. Jensen had a very strong regular season emulating that and is a fine top 4 defenseman. He just couldn't really carry it over so much against Florida. At 32 in a few weeks he's a tough extension candidate. He got started relatively late so maybe there's less wear but can they go past 3/4 years? How he follows up last season will help dictate their approach. He's probably going to need a repeat of last regular season if they're going to commit. Even then you'd think the open market could be more lucrative.

 

[RandyHolt]

There has been very little positive about caps playoff hockey at all since 2018. So while pointing out flaws in carlson is valid, he is far from a scapegoat.

Our fall from grace has been pretty impressive. We have all been forced to lower expectations just like in our first round flops of yesteryear / can't make it out of the division after dominating the regular season. We have choked so much since 2018 I now only expect a cup every 40 years or so.

Nisky was a badass and think many fans took him for granted when he was here.

 

[g00n]

Pointing to the overall results is misleading. We can evaluate individual player performance even in that context.

Carlson has been shit. Even if others have been shit he's been extra shit. Super deluxe shit.

It's not acceptable for that amount of money. Fin.

 

[twabby]

JFresh just released his WAR projections for the 2022-23 season. These projections are based on the last 3 seasons of WAR + microstat data, along with using an aging curve. I'll post a few that seem most relevant, but if there are any requests I'll take them as well:

Spoiler: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Not really surprising. Kuznetsov isn't projected to be a good driver of play in either direction but he's such a good playmaker that he still ends up being a net positive. Still, a ton to be desired in a 1C.

Spoiler: Dylan Strome

More of a playdriver than Kuznetsov but not nearly the playmaker. Not great defensively, but his reputation for being a poor defensive player seems a bit misplaced given recent results.

Spoiler: Connor McMichael

Perhaps could be their best playdriving center next season, if given the opportunity. Obviously the finishing and playmaking need improvement.

Spoiler: Nick Jensen

Something something Zdeno Chara. Jensen is good, has always been good, and will likely continue to be good. His offensive contributions last year appear to be an outlier, but he should be defensively stout as always, dating back to his days in Detroit.

Spoiler: Martin Fehervary

Along with my own personal projection, this projection doesn't look very good for Fehervary either. At his age in his peer group there typically isn't much improvement. If last season wasn't an outlier due to various reasons, he could be in for another rough year this year.

 

[Langway]

Strome's projection for a, what, 20% decline defensively YOY isn't something I expected given previous system/linemates/coaching. I expect Carlson's defense is also projected to be worse?

I suspect Jensen is due some regression and not just offensively. It would be great if this past regular season were the norm but that pair is bound to have at least some down spells. Add in Ovechkin being slightly under a point-per-game in CY2022 and minus Wilson there's potential for a mediocre start. They'll need Mantha & Brown to provide tough minute difference-making to have enough horses to remain competitive IMO. The checking line will be key again but those two and probably Strome stand out as needing to excel in key secondary roles.

I'm not confident they'll opt for McMichael at center over Eller as-is but perhaps he'll have made some strength gains enabling a more capable battle level. As one of their few ascending players how they'll manage him will be very interesting.

There should be a lot more parity in the East with a couple exceptions. Something near 100 points seems likely in the range of 5-8 in the East I'd wager. What stands out as most at issue is whether the Ovechkin/Kuznetsov/Oshie/Carlson nucleus still has enough in the tank to be difference makers in the regular season. If goaltending and depth have to be more of the recipe I'm not sure the mix will be firm enough. They very likely can't get away with Sheary fifth in scoring and just three 20 goal scorers again.

 

[twabby]

Strome's projection for a, what, 20% decline defensively YOY isn't something I expected given previous system/linemates/coaching. I expect Carlson's defense is also projected to be worse?

I suspect Jensen is due some regression and not just offensively. It would be great if this past regular season were the norm but that pair is bound to have at least some down spells. Add in Ovechkin being slightly under a point-per-game in CY2022 and minus Wilson there's potential for a mediocre start. They'll need Mantha & Brown to provide tough minute difference-making to have enough horses to remain competitive IMO. The checking line will be key again but those two and probably Strome stand out as needing to excel in key secondary roles.

I'm not confident they'll opt for McMichael at center over Eller as-is but perhaps he'll have made some strength gains enabling a more capable battle level. As one of their few ascending players how they'll manage him will be very interesting.

There should be a lot more parity in the East with a couple exceptions. Something near 100 points seems likely in the range of 5-8 in the East I'd wager. What stands out as most at issue is whether the Ovechkin/Kuznetsov/Oshie/Carlson nucleus still has enough in the tank to be difference makers in the regular season. If goaltending and depth have to be more of the recipe I'm not sure the mix will be firm enough. They very likely can't get away with Sheary fifth in scoring and just three 20 goal scorers again.

Strome’s individual impact is independent of his linemates, though it is possible that he’ll continue his upward trajectory defensively if the system and coaching helps him become a better defensive player. Either way I think projecting him to be an average defensive player seems fair for now.

Carlson is indeed projected to regress defensively, though overall he is still projected to be very good (in the regular season, at least):

I don’t really agree that we’ll see Jensen regress defensively, mainly because aside from his acclimation period when he was traded to DC he’s always put up great defensive numbers. He and Orlov won’t get the PDO luck they got last year, but their impact should still be quite good as a shutdown pair.

I hope McMichael isn’t squeezed out of the lineup again, but I suspect he’ll be the odd one out to start the season. Hard to see him supplant Eller initially, despite their respective performances last year and despite their trajectories. Hopefully he’ll cement himself in the lineup by midseason.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Eller vs CMM is the most interesting training camp battle….

Eller is probably going to come into camp in fantastic shape in a contract year. If CMM can earn that C spot, he will likely have REALLY earned it. It’s an uphill battle this year.

 

[John Price]

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

what is this picture?

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

what is this picture?

Slafkovsky, Wright take part in NHLPA Rookie Showcase | NHL.com

Canadiens left wing, Kraken center among 29 to sign trading cards, have goal celebrations recorded

www.nhl.com

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Slafkovsky, Wright take part in NHLPA Rookie Showcase | NHL.com

Canadiens left wing, Kraken center among 29 to sign trading cards, have goal celebrations recorded

www.nhl.com

Damn I would have so watched this prospect game

 

[John Price]

All the angst over the capitals Caesars ad on their jerseys this year is misguided - - it is a very legitimate ad, and very strong!

 

[Corby78]

All the angst over the capitals Caesars ad on their jerseys this year is misguided - - it is a very legitimate ad, and very strong!

I hate it