Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 1: Free Agent Edition

[Hivemind]

Fun fact - the last seven Stanley Cups have been won by a head coach on either their first or second NHL Head Coaching gig. Granted, Barry Trotz's first gig did last quite a while. But none of the others have had more than two years of NHL HC experience prior to the team they won it with (with both Sullivan and Berube winning after mid-season takeovers of teams and having two years of experience with previous teams, and Berube still having an interim tag when he won the Cup).

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Fun fact - the last seven Stanley Cups have been won by a head coach on either their first or second NHL Head Coaching gig. Granted, Barry Trotz's first gig did last quite a while. But none of the others have had more than two years of NHL HC experience prior to the team they won it with (with both Sullivan and Berube winning after mid-season takeovers of teams and having two years of experience with previous teams, and Berube still having an interim tag when he won the Cup).

Indeed, to me the overriding consideration has to be "the right man [and eventually, person] for the job." Considering all of the relevant team-determined variables - the roster (individual players, experience, trends), environment (recent history, team culture, owners), division/competition, and so forth - and the attributes, experience, personality &tc of each coaching candidate. Is it a win-now situation or is the team on an upward trajectory and likely to contend in a couple of seasons? You shouldn't rule out a newbie or an old-timer, just have to weigh the relevant factors and come up with what hockey minds think is the optimal solution.

 

[usiel]

First off, the Silent Generation were born in the 1930s and I'm pretty sure the only participation trophy they ever got was just surviving the Great Depression.

Second, being a hockey player is like any other job in that it belongs to the person in it. If you want their job, you better make it impossible for their boss to avoid the unpleasant task of removing them. Nothing CMM did last year achieved that. As much as you want it to be about Eller, it isn't. It's about McMichael. Ellen earned his job years ago, and in the ensuing years, he's done a lot to reward the team's faith in him. CMM has no such cred. He needs to earn it just like Lars did.

I can speak for my Dad, who is part of the silent generation, that the most important participation trophy was all the glorious love making that happened when the birth control pill was released in the 60s. Just sayin...

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Like I don’t know when my generation was from!

I want to see them win another Stanley Cup. In order to do that they need to push every edge they can get. I think gifting veterans spots over less “established” but better players goes counter to building the best team possible. This same logic is why Trevor van Riemsdyk was a healthy scratch in 2020-21 despite being a superior player to Zdeno Chara and Justin Schultz, why Jonas Siegenthaler is excelling as a Devil instead of in DC, why Nate Schmidt was eating healthy scratches in favor of Karl Alzner who could barely skate, etc.

It’s on the coaching staff to determine who is “better“ for a particular roster spot and role within the team structure. TVR earned his spot just fine, no harm no foul. Didn’t cost us a Cup that’s for sure. Siege was a largely one dimensional player who made too much and was a cap casualty. Again….another fringe NHLer move at the time that in no way kept them from winning a Cup that year….Nate Schmidt another fringe NHLer at the time who had no clear role here. (Most certainly not at his stupid contract price).

Tweener city…all of these guys to start their careers.

If CMM is in that same type of group right now, no wonder they’re taking it slow with him. Let the kid develop. When he’s ready, he’ll earn it.

I expect strength and skating are still two holes in his game they’re working on right now…let’s see how he uses the summer.

 

[twabby]

It’s on the coaching staff to determine who is “better“ for a particular roster spot and role within the team structure. TVR earned his spot just fine, no harm no foul. Didn’t cost us a Cup that’s for sure. Siege was a largely one dimensional player who made too much and was a cap casualty. Again….another fringe NHLer move at the time that in no way kept them from winning a Cup that year….Nate Smith another fringe NHLer at the time who had no clear role here.

Tweener city…all of these guys to start their careers.

Chara, Alzner, Schultz, and the other players blocking younger players from progressing were fringe NHLers. at the time. Eller is approaching that fringe NHLer status as well, if last season wasn't an anomaly. Statistically Siegenthaler, TVR, and Schmidt were not fringe NHLers. The coaches opted to make the team worse off in favor of stability or some such claptrap, rather than just icing better players. The team is plenty stable now. They have been stably getting bounced in unceremonious fashion in round 1. Perhaps a little "instability" is needed, unless we're happy with Round 1 exits being the ceiling for this team?

Yes, it's up to the coaches to make the right decisions. I am not fully confident they will do so, as evidenced by past poor choices when faced with similar decisions. I agree TVR playing over Chara or Schultz in 2021 against Boston wasn't the difference between winning and losing, but maybe there will be a close 7 game series in the future where a seemingly small edge is the difference between winning and losing. How many times are games and series seemingly coin flips?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Chara, Alzner, Schultz, and the other players blocking younger players from progressing were fringe NHLers. at the time. Eller is approaching that fringe NHLer status as well, if last season wasn't an anomaly. Statistically Siegenthaler, TVR, and Schmidt were not fringe NHLers. The coaches opted to make the team worse off in favor of stability or some such claptrap, rather than just icing better players. The team is plenty stable now. They have been stably getting bounced in unceremonious fashion in round 1 pretty consistently. Perhaps a little "instability" is needed?

Yes, it's up to the coaches to make the right decisions. I am not fully confident they will do so, as evidenced by past poor choices when faced with similar decisions. I agree TVR playing over Chara or Schultz in 2021 against Boston wasn't the difference between winning and losing, but maybe there will be a close 7 game series in the future where a seemingly small edge is the difference between winning and losing. How many times are games seemingly coin flips?

Your opinion vs the professionals….it always comes down to that. Guess who’s matter?


…at some point maybe you’ll get it.


Those 3 absolutely were fringe NHLers, mostly 3rd pair/ 5/6/7 guys…largely replaceable. Still are (replaceable).

 

[g00n]

Fun fact - the last seven Stanley Cups have been won by a head coach on either their first or second NHL Head Coaching gig. Granted, Barry Trotz's first gig did last quite a while. But none of the others have had more than two years of NHL HC experience prior to the team they won it with (with both Sullivan and Berube winning after mid-season takeovers of teams and having two years of experience with previous teams, and Berube still having an interim tag when he won the Cup).

So what? Almost 1/2 of the teams in the league at the start of last season had HCs with less than 3 full seasons experience. There's a lot of turnover.

Plus, your stat isn't exactly a huge sampling of coaches. Four of those 7 wins were two coaches with 2 teams (Pens and Bolts both repeating).

So if half the league is inexperienced, chances are some inexperienced coaches will win sometimes if half of them, especially since experienced coaches tend to be shuffled around among teams looking to fix problems.

But the majority of the coaches that make the finals in the salary cap era seem to be fairly or at least have a few years under their belts.

In the cap era and aside from the 7 years you examined: Lavi took 4 seasons to win, MacTavish needed 5 to get there, Carlyle won in his 2nd year, Babcock won his 5th year, Therrien got there in 6, Bylsma won his first year and did shit the rest of his career, Quenneville took 11 years to win the first of his 3, Julien took 8 years to win, Vigneault had 9 years before making the finals, Sutter took 10 years to win his first of two, DeBoer needed 4yrs to make the finals and is still looking for his first Cup after losing twice.

 

[HeyMattyB]

After the Capitals hire a series of first-time NHL coaches (Cassidy, Hanlon, Boudreau, Hunter, Oates), Caps fans are like: "No more rookie NHL coaches! The window is closing! Hire a veteran coach!"
After the Capitals hire a veteran coach (Trotz): "Fire the veteran coach!"
After the Capitals hire a rookie coach (Reirden): "Fire the rookie coach! Hire a veteran coach!"
After the Capitals fire the rookie coach and hire a veteran coach (Lavi): "Fire the veteran coach! Hire a rookie coach!"

Caps fans are like:

 

[SherVaughn30]

As much as I would love Carbery to be given serious consideration as the next head coach of the Washington Capitals (as soon as this season), I would like to avoid another "heir apparent" situation like we had with Trotz and Reirden. That manifested itself poorly and closed off other options from the HC gig.

Kevin lacked balls as a head coach and it reflected on how the team played. Carbery is a much better candidate to be a head coach than what Kevin ever was. Carbery was doing a very good job of developing the Caps prospects in Hershey. Carbery has that Dominic Torreto look like, "don't mess with me" sort of thing.

 

[twabby]

Your opinion vs the professionals….it always comes down to that. Guess who’s matter?


…at some point maybe you’ll get it.


Those 3 absolutely were fringe NHLers, mostly 3rd pair/ 5/6/7 guys…largely replaceable. Still are (replaceable).

If I never questioned what the so-called experts said then I wouldn’t be where I am today (deeply in debt from investing in a chain of “can’t-fail” sports bars).

 

[RandyHolt]

On aspect of CCM vs Eller... cheap rookie vs expensive vet part infinity.

Sure the coach may not trust the rookie come playoff time but a GM can spend money elsewhere and perhaps fill the void the rookie creates with an upgrade at another position. Saving $$$ plus that vet may fetch a better return than a failing prospect wasting away scratched. Its not always a straight 1:1 comparison. Maybe other fat cat complacent vets will stop slacking when they see one slacker get cut for a kid.

I hated the Hagelin signing.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

 

[pman25]

For Huberdeau and Weegar?? Goodness

 

[The Instigator]

Wild wild return.

 

[Cush]

Give up a 100 point player for another 100 point player? Not sure how it makes sense, but sure, why not?

 

[pman25]

Florida got a younger, better player and locked him in for 8 years. Huberdeau and Weegar were upcoming UFAs as well, probably couldn’t keep both anyway. I like the move for both squads

 

[zappa4ever]

Breaking...

by Tom Gulitti / NHL.com Staff Writer
July 22, 2022

The NHL and Gary Bettman are excited to announce a change to the 2022-23 NHL Playoffs:
"The 2022-23 NHL Playoffs will consist of 10 Eastern Conference teams and 6 Western Conference teams due to recent trades to encourage competition amongst the Eastern teams since the West will be... quote: 'The Suck' end quote"

 

[Midnight Judges]

Florida got a younger, better player and locked him in for 8 years. Huberdeau and Weegar were upcoming UFAs as well, probably couldn’t keep both anyway. I like the move for both squads

yeah when I first saw the headline I was like WTF and then I saw the contract status for Weeger and Huberdeau and it all made sense.

 

[Roshi]

Chara, Alzner, Schultz, and the other players blocking younger players from progressing were fringe NHLers. at the time. Eller is approaching that fringe NHLer status as well, if last season wasn't an anomaly. Statistically Siegenthaler, TVR, and Schmidt were not fringe NHLers. The coaches opted to make the team worse off in favor of stability or some such claptrap, rather than just icing better players. The team is plenty stable now. They have been stably getting bounced in unceremonious fashion in round 1. Perhaps a little "instability" is needed, unless we're happy with Round 1 exits being the ceiling for this team?

Yes, it's up to the coaches to make the right decisions. I am not fully confident they will do so, as evidenced by past poor choices when faced with similar decisions. I agree TVR playing over Chara or Schultz in 2021 against Boston wasn't the difference between winning and losing, but maybe there will be a close 7 game series in the future where a seemingly small edge is the difference between winning and losing. How many times are games and series seemingly coin flips?

You say things like this like it really happened in some other statistics-universe or something, and you know how it went there.

There might also be a close 7 game series where a guy like Chara comes out big, finds that greatness he once possessed for one last game and wins it alone. Now as we are talking what ifs.

Legendary quote ”hockey is a momentum game”. It can make a big difference in the backbone of your teams confidence, whether you sit next to a rookie or soon to be hoffer in the locker room. Or it might not, if the rookie has played himself there and forced the Chara or Alzner out of his way. Schmidt was refreshing, Siegs was fine, but you are making it sound like they were hyper-studs at the time. They would not have made the difference.

And its not like we didnt think Schmidt was breaking out next year. They had a path him and they were following it, and it was going just as planned. We didnt just throw him out. We lost him in expansion draft. And Siege we lost because he wanted out for a bigger role. They had a path for him aswell, but he didnt have the patience to wait for it. And im happy it worked out for him, but he isnt quite as superstar as people here keep singing songs. Im not sure if he is all so much better than TVR, maybe by some margin, but Trevor is happy here and knows his spot. Not sure what role Siegs would play today if he stayed as a Cap.

I like CMM and with patience he might have a long and good run with the Caps and will be solid middle-six player if things go right for him. But many here maybe have a bit of a rush and want to desperately to overvalue him because of our thin prospect pool. He is most likely not going to be an all star, and thats fine. We dont have much of a reason to rush him to a certain spot, as long as we have competition.

He will force his way into that spot, or not, but in the big picture it likely changes from little to nothing if this isnt the year that CMM breaks out. The scope and developement plan has been on 23/24 from the start, when Ellers contract runs out, and CMM hasnt yet shown a big enough reason to not keep on that route. Id be more than happy if he does though!

 

[Empty Goal Net]

It wouldn't have taken a "hyper-stud" non-veteran to outplay Chara, Alzner, Hagelin, or even Eller in the situations being discussed. Whatever those players may've been in their primes (one a HOFer), they were no longer those players during the times they blocked young'uns from getting ice time.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It wouldn't have taken a "hyper-stud" non-veteran to outplay Chara, Alzner, Hagelin, or even Eller in the situations being discussed. Whatever those players may've been in their primes (one a HOFer), they were no longer those players during the times they blocked young'uns from getting ice time.

All the youngins have to do is be better. Simple formula.

They block themselves by not making the choices more obvious and easy for Management.

 

[Hivemind]

It wouldn't have taken a "hyper-stud" non-veteran to outplay Chara, Alzner, Hagelin, or even Eller in the situations being discussed. Whatever those players may've been in their primes (one a HOFer), they were no longer those players during the times they blocked young'uns from getting ice time.

Preach.

 

[twabby]

You say things like this like it really happened in some other statistics-universe or something, and you know how it went there.

There might also be a close 7 game series where a guy like Chara comes out big, finds that greatness he once possessed for one last game and wins it alone. Now as we are talking what ifs.

Legendary quote ”hockey is a momentum game”. It can make a big difference in the backbone of your teams confidence, whether you sit next to a rookie or soon to be hoffer in the locker room. Or it might not, if the rookie has played himself there and forced the Chara or Alzner out of his way. Schmidt was refreshing, Siegs was fine, but you are making it sound like they were hyper-studs at the time. They would not have made the difference.

And its not like we didnt think Schmidt was breaking out next year. They had a path him and they were following it, and it was going just as planned. We didnt just throw him out. We lost him in expansion draft. And Siege we lost because he wanted out for a bigger role. They had a path for him aswell, but he didnt have the patience to wait for it. And im happy it worked out for him, but he isnt quite as superstar as people here keep singing songs. Im not sure if he is all so much better than TVR, maybe by some margin, but Trevor is happy here and knows his spot. Not sure what role Siegs would play today if he stayed as a Cap.

I like CMM and with patience he might have a long and good run with the Caps and will be solid middle-six player if things go right for him. But many here maybe have a bit of a rush and want to desperately to overvalue him because of our thin prospect pool. He is most likely not going to be an all star, and thats fine. We dont have much of a reason to rush him to a certain spot, as long as we have competition.

He will force his way into that spot, or not, but in the big picture it likely changes from little to nothing if this isnt the year that CMM breaks out. The scope and developement plan has been on 23/24 from the start, when Ellers contract runs out, and CMM hasnt yet shown a big enough reason to not keep on that route. Id be more than happy if he does though!

In McMichael's case I'm not trying to overvalue him because he's their only prospect right now that might make an impact. I'm saying it because he is one of their top 4 centers right now. Top 3 depending on if you view Dowd as a 3C or 4C.

I'm the same person who has very little faith in Martin Fehervary going forward and think he's being rushed into duty, so it's not like I'm the guy who's overvaluing youth just because they are young.

As I've said: play the best players. I don't care if they're young or old. And play the players who are likely to get better if it's close.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Please not even the same thing. The coaching staff said Fever was NHL ready the season BEFORE we finally had room for him to play.

CMM is a year premature of a typical development path due to Covid and being allowed to play in the AHL early.

 

[twabby]

Please not even the same thing. The coaching staff said Fever was NHL ready the season BEFORE we finally had room for him to play.

CMM is a year premature of a typical development path due to Covid and being allowed to play in the AHL early.

Yes that's correct, the coaching staff made a(nother) player evaluation mistake IMO. They decided to etch in stone Fehervary's spot in the top 4 because it was His Time, despite the fact that very little about his play especially in the second half of the season warranted that spot in the top 4. We talk about how a player needs to force his way onto the roster over established veterans, yet Fehervary did...none of that? He was gifted a top 4 spot and it hurt the team immensely. It appears that he is also being gifted a top 4 spot this year despite being below replacement level last year.

The lack of adaptability when given new information about players' abilities is concerning to me. Almost like a plan is being formed before the season starts, and instead of reacting to what works and what doesn't they just stick to the script written in the preseason. McMichael wasn't a part of this script, as you correctly mentioned for the reasons you mentioned. Thus he was an afterthought despite outplaying others on the roster who did consistently get a sweater. Meanwhile Fehervary kept getting those top 4 minutes over a guy like TVR or a TDL acquisition perhaps because it was part of the script to have him be a top 4 defenseman, even if he was clearly overmatched for most of the season and all of the postseason.