Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 1: Free Agent Edition

[Roshi]

In McMichael's case I'm not trying to overvalue him because he's their only prospect right now that might make an impact. I'm saying it because he is one of their top 4 centers right now. Top 3 depending on if you view Dowd as a 3C or 4C.

I'm the same person who has very little faith in Martin Fehervary going forward and think he's being rushed into duty, so it's not like I'm the guy who's overvaluing youth just because they are young.

As I've said: play the best players. I don't care if they're young or old. And play the players who are likely to get better if it's close.

You really cant see the boxes what playing Eller over CMM checked for the coaching staff, as for how things worked out? Or you just dont agree them? That sometimes effect on the team performance can not, and should not be measured with advanced statistics.

Just saying that the best corsi-guy or the best gar-guy just isnt always the best player. Per60 is not really something that you can vaccuum up in hockey either. Its somewhat same as ”expected goals” for a guy who shoots the same amount of onetimers from Ovie-island and somehow scores 50 goals less with the same statistical expectations, or that you can just hand out all the Art rosses and Harts to Crosby for his ”projected pace” that was higher than the guy who actually put in more points.

With all the injuries and overcoming them to make it to 100pts, you dont think stability and two-way game and experience werent bigger factors than corsigar60? We could easily have folded last year when we were simultaneously missing Mantha, Backstrom, Wilson, Oshie etc etc, and goalies giving us as inconsistent play as it can be. But we didnt because (in my opinion) we have deep & gritty group of veterans who helped the in and out group of Hershey-invitees to adapt and survive the process. We did pretty much optimize the result in reg season and thats a sign of good coaching decisions, for me.

So I really cant get behind the idea that Laviolette somehow ruined the season by not playing CMM more, it was pretty good season under the circumstances. And as far as it goes for the playoffs, we were one EN post away from leading 3-1, and one late meltdown away from leading 3-2. Thats classic playoffs-hockey, momentum. If we had the bounces, would we have been swept by Tampa? Maybe. But thats the three time finalist, two time winner. Thats as tough as it comes.

Im also not sold at all how last years CMM makes the difference. He was ok, id enjoy seeing him more. But he was not a guy you look and go - hey, that guys gonna be difference maker.

And i dont get why Hagelin keeps thrown into the mix, CMM never competed for that spot. None of the rookies did. It doesnt matter if we like it or not, but Hagelin has/had tools that our coaches and office seem to think we urgently need. They throw their ultimate superPK-Hagelin praises anytime they are given chance to talk about it, and instead trying some of the ”kids” there now when he is on the ltir all they talk about trading for Brown was how crucial it was to get a guy like that to replace part of what we miss with Hags. They even sent Hagelin in there to score on his own empty net because they wanted him to be the guy to chase the puck for us, in case they lose the faceoff or need to play a deep corner play or backchek. Thats the speed we are missing and (unfortunately) we dont have many options for that. CMM is not going to be winning that puck for us. - and in all fairness it kind of worked even for that time, Hagelin did get the puck. The rest is history obviously..

But i do think this year is different, and CMM is a bit more polished and a bit closer to claiming his spot. We will see how it goes. Everyone here would like that to happen. But again, rushing it doesnt really gain us much and the scope has always been 23/24 - they have repeatedly even said this much with ”we like where he is now, he is maybe a year ahead in his developement”.

If he comes out on the top of it, i have zero doubt they will give him the spot. If they are equally good with Eller i fully trust our management to know the best which one plays for us to be as good team as we can be. Either way we are screwed when Ovie is done hitting 40+ goals..

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yes that's correct, the coaching staff made a(nother) player evaluation mistake IMO. They decided to etch in stone Fehervary's spot in the top 4 because it was His Time, despite the fact that very little about his play especially in the second half of the season warranted that spot in the top 4. We talk about how a player needs to force his way onto the roster over established veterans, yet Fehervary did...none of that? He was gifted a top 4 spot and it hurt the team immensely. It appears that he is also being gifted a top 4 spot this year despite being below replacement level last year.

The lack of adaptability when given new information about players' abilities is concerning to me. Almost like a plan is being formed before the season starts, and instead of reacting to what works and what doesn't they just stick to the script written in the preseason. McMichael wasn't a part of this script, as you correctly mentioned for the reasons you mentioned. Thus he was an afterthought despite outplaying others on the roster who did consistently get a sweater. Meanwhile Fehervary kept getting those top 4 minutes over a guy like TVR or a TDL acquisition perhaps because it was part of the script to have him be a top 4 defenseman, even if he was clearly overmatched for most of the season and all of the postseason.

You just don’t understand the sport enough to make actual educated roster decisions as compared to the Professionals. They have access to data and info we don’t.

It‘s your thing, I get it. Using other’s funny math and hindsight…..

 

[twabby]

You just don’t understand the sport enough to make actual educated roster decisions as compared to the Professionals. They have access to data and info we don’t.

It‘s your thing, I get it. Using other’s funny math and hindsight…..

If the retort is always going to be “well they’re the professionals, they must know better” then I guess no one ever disagree with anything the team does because you’re wrong!

 

[Hivemind]

And i dont get why Hagelin keeps thrown into the mix, CMM never competed for that spot. None of the rookies did.

Even if I were to agree with the principle that Hagelins 4LW "spot" has to be occupied by a player with Hagelin's skillset (it doesn't, there's more than one way the 4th line can play), claiming that "none of the rookies" competed for that spot is objectively false. AJF very directly competed for that spot.

As for the rest of that paragraph about Hagelin - that's proof in the pudding that the coaching staff's obsession with veterans was shortsighted and didn't produce the results they were aiming for. It's the perfect example of how their approach is mistaken. (And I've written at length about how their ice time for the rest of the game disproves that the coaching staff was applying a consistent standard with regards to "earning" ice time)

 

[Roshi]

Even if I were to agree with the principle that Hagelins 4LW "spot" has to be occupied by a player with Hagelin's skillset (it doesn't, there's more than one way the 4th line can play), claiming that "none of the rookies" competed for that spot is objectively false. AJF very directly competed for that spot.

As for the rest of that paragraph about Hagelin - that's proof in the pudding that the coaching staff's obsession with veterans was shortsighted and didn't produce the results they were aiming for. It's the perfect example of how their approach is mistaken. (And I've written at length about how their ice time for the rest of the game disproves that the coaching staff was applying a consistent standard with regards to "earning" ice time)

AJF did not compete for that spot, he was the placeholder when Hags got hurt. Though he does have the speed and the hair, but Hags spot was never really in jeopardy last year.

Should Caps play 2018 up&coming Madison Bowey over washed up advanced stats mess called Brooks Orpik? Maybe they should not stand in the way of developement and throw Travis Boyd or Nathan Walker to the fourth line instead of a guy who managed whopping 16 points and nothing special during the reg season, lets call him DSP. Did they mess up the team, and the developement for those young guys? Should Avs have used any of their young guns to play instead of Helm and Jack MF Johnson?

Playing the vets paid off for 100pt season and a close matchup with stacked Panthers. Im not buying we could have done better by playing AFJ over Hagelin. Or CMM over Eller.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If the retort is always going to be “well they’re the professionals, they must know better” then I guess no one ever disagree with anything the team does because you’re wrong!

And your analysis will always be incomplete because you don’t have all the data.

 

[twabby]

And your analysis will always be incomplete because you don’t have all the data.

So no one can ever disagree with the professionals because they have some mystical complete dataset that no one else does? Seems unlikely to me.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

So no one can ever disagree with the professionals because they have some mystical complete dataset that no one else does? Seems unlikely to me.

you can disagree (having only part of the data) all you want….it’s just that your view in
particular is flawed on this subject, and you carry on quite a bit about it lol….

 

[Hivemind]

AJF did not compete for that spot, he was the placeholder when Hags got hurt. Though he does have the speed and the hair, but Hags spot was never really in jeopardy last year.

Should Caps play 2018 up&coming Madison Bowey over washed up advanced stats mess called Brooks Orpik? Maybe they should not stand in the way of developement and throw Travis Boyd or Nathan Walker to the fourth line instead of a guy who managed whopping 16 points and nothing special during the reg season, lets call him DSP. Did they mess up the team, and the developement for those young guys? Should Avs have used any of their young guns to play instead of Helm and Jack MF Johnson?

Playing the vets paid off for 100pt season and a close matchup with stacked Panthers. Im not buying we could have done better by playing AFJ over Hagelin. Or CMM over Eller.

The Capitals had an alternative to Hagelin for the 4LW spot, and whether or not you want to contend that he "competed" for it or not is a matter of semantics. Heck, he even got claimed on waivers at the beginning of the season (but covid restrictions limited his ability to play and he was waived before he ever got a game with Buffalo), and did well enough in his stint with Washington that they kept him on the roster for fear of losing him on waivers again. The only way you can view him as not competing for it is if you admit that the coaching staff has their bias towards veteran players, and younger players are not going to overcome said bias.

Using the 2018 Capitals as an example of youth not being able to cut it is incredibly hilarious. You realize the 2018 Capitals had more young players than just about any other Caps team in the past decade, right? That "standing in the way" DSP was only 25 years old (only a one year difference compared to Boyd and two to Walker). And guess what, both Walker and Boyd ended up seeing the ice in the playoffs. They had a 21 year old rookie named Jakub Vrana, and they used him in the top six for the last two rounds of the playoffs. 23 year old rookie Christian Djoos was a fixture in the line-up for the bulk of the season, and was instrumental in helping Orpik get the puck out of his own zone. 23 year old rookie Chandler Stephenson got his first full year in the NHL, and two rounds of top six time in the playoffs. In his fourth season in the NHL, the 22 year old Andre Burakovsky was a relative veteran, as was the fifth year pro, 23 year old Tom Wilson. Even Evgeni Kuznetsov and Brett Connolly were only 25.

Trying to use the 2017-18 Captials as an example of why you shouldn't trust youth an inexperience is possibly the worst example you could pick. They won the Cup with a line-up filled with younger players. It was the year AFTER they had let go guys like Justin Williams, Marcus Johansson, Karl Alzner, Daniel Winnik, and Kevin Shattenkirk. Brooks Orpik was literally the only player on the team over the age of 32. By comparison, the Capitals this season could have between 5 and 7 players over that mark (depending on if Backstrom and Hagelin play), plus three more (Dowd, Johansson, Jensen) at age 32.

This team absolutely could have done better, and in fact did do better, when they trusted their youth. It wasn't a mistake that the Capitals best stretch of play in the 2021-22 season was when injuries forced them to play the kids earlier in the season. They looked markedly worse once they were closer to "full strength," and none of the veteran additions they made at the trade deadline to even further bury that youth made the team any better.

 

[zappa4ever]

So no one can ever disagree with the professionals because they have some mystical complete dataset that no one else does? Seems unlikely to me.

ummmmmmmm... does the obvious really need to be pointed out?

The professionals 100% have a completely unique data set that no one else does... they're there and see everything first-hand, directly, with exclusive access

On the ice, on the bench, in the locker room, in the classroom, full video access, access to the players, scouts, trainers, other coaches, even 'fancy stats' staff

You can disagree with anything you want, but your access to data is no comparison

 

[Roshi]

The Capitals had an alternative to Hagelin for the 4LW spot, and whether or not you want to contend that he "competed" for it or not is a matter of semantics. Heck, he even got claimed on waivers at the beginning of the season (but covid restrictions limited his ability to play and he was waived before he ever got a game with Buffalo), and did well enough in his stint with Washington that they kept him on the roster for fear of losing him on waivers again. The only way you can view him as not competing for it is if you admit that the coaching staff has their bias towards veteran players, and younger players are not going to overcome said bias.

Using the 2018 Capitals as an example of youth not being able to cut it is incredibly hilarious. You realize the 2018 Capitals had more young players than just about any other Caps team in the past decade, right? That "standing in the way" DSP was only 25 years old (only a one year difference compared to Boyd and two to Walker). And guess what, both Walker and Boyd ended up seeing the ice in the playoffs. They had a 21 year old rookie named Jakub Vrana, and they used him in the top six for the last two rounds of the playoffs. 23 year old rookie Christian Djoos was a fixture in the line-up for the bulk of the season, and was instrumental in helping Orpik get the puck out of his own zone. 23 year old rookie Chandler Stephenson got his first full year in the NHL, and two rounds of top six time in the playoffs. In his fourth season in the NHL, the 22 year old Andre Burakovsky was a relative veteran, as was the fifth year pro, 23 year old Tom Wilson. Even Evgeni Kuznetsov and Brett Connolly were only 25.

Trying to use the 2017-18 Captials as an example of why you shouldn't trust youth an inexperience is possibly the worst example you could pick. They won the Cup with a line-up filled with younger players. It was the year AFTER they had let go guys like Justin Williams, Marcus Johansson, Karl Alzner, Daniel Winnik, and Kevin Shattenkirk. Brooks Orpik was literally the only player on the team over the age of 32. By comparison, the Capitals this season could have between 5 and 7 players over that mark (depending on if Backstrom and Hagelin play), plus three more (Dowd, Johansson, Jensen) at age 32.

This team absolutely could have done better, and in fact did do better, when they trusted their youth. It wasn't a mistake that the Capitals best stretch of play in the 2021-22 season was when injuries forced them to play the kids earlier in the season. They looked markedly worse once they were closer to "full strength," and none of the veteran additions they made at the trade deadline to even further bury that youth made the team any better.

I did not use Team 2018 Caps as example, come on. I picked couple great adv stat spitballs who had a huge impact.

For me age has nothing to do in a win now team. I am not saying CMM is too young to have the spot, im saying he hasnt outplayed Eller yet.

 

[g00n]

So no one can ever disagree with the professionals because they have some mystical complete dataset that no one else does? Seems unlikely to me.

This is a slippery slope fallacy used in an attempt to make occupational expertise and exclusive access appear to be an appeal to authority fallacy.

You can disagree with professionals all you want but the value of your opinion is going to be weighted in ways Zappa already mentioned.

-There are known-knowns that stat people use to make their decisions BUT... the pros also have access to those. We also don't know exactly what they're looking at but it's reasonable to assume they're aware of the public sources while having their own tables. Possible advantage to staff whose jobs are based on those data.

-There are known-unknowns that the pros and staff benefit from while we don't. Clear advantage to staff.

-There are unknown-unknowns in the equation as well, and those must always be at least considered. Massive advantage to staff.

If you disagree on something we all have equal access to, such as the legality of a play we all see on a video screen, then you can disagree with the pros on nearly equal footing. The slippery slope is unnecessary. It's one opinion about an event vs another.

But if you disagree on something with a high probability of x-unknowns, and a lot more potential subjectivity, then you're not likely in position to make a fully-informed call.

At best you have to limit your assessment to "I believe in my interpretation of this specific data over what I assume is the team's interpretation" rather than using the public data to draw down specific judgments about player moves, coaching ability, GM stupidity, etc.

 

[SherVaughn30]

Just a question regarding signing Kuemper in FA. Is this the first time the Caps signed a big name goalie in FA? From my recollection, all the other goalies acquired in the teams history from outside the team have been through trades.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Just a question regarding signing Kuemper in FA. Is this the first time the Caps signed a big name goalie in FA? From my recollection, all the other goalies acquired in the teams history from outside the team have been through trades.

Vokoun. But that wasn’t a large $$$ signing

 

[Jags]

They decided to etch in stone Fehervary's spot in the top 4 because it was His Time

Not really. If the personnel were different he could easily have ended up at 3LD. They were cool with him in the lineup, period. Him ending up on Carlson's hip was just how the chemistry shook out.

This is one of those things it's easy to be irked at MacLellan over. In a world where he constantly gets redundant veterans to fill spots that he has/had solid young players for, going into the season last year with a rookie 1LD and a righty playing 3LD was just weird, especially when that righty could have played on his strong side and saved us four million dollars. And that money could have gotten us a good LD so we wouldn't have had to lean on Fever so hard.

It's the same exact issue we've been discussing with Eller/McMichael.

 

[Jags]

So I really cant get behind the idea that Laviolette somehow ruined the season by not playing CMM more

I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but this is some misleading hyperbole. Twabby never said Laviolette ruined the season by not playing McMichael, just that McMichael should have played more and been utilized more effectively. It's easy to focus on Eller, the insurance he brings when we have C injuries, and the things he generally does well. But it's also easy to zoom out and admit that the team played fine without Eller in the lineup at all last year; that he doesn't move the needle nearly as much as he used to.

And this shouldn't be an Eller vs. McMichael debate. It should be simple questions about McMichael's development. Is there any point developing him at wing in any league? Can he play center in the NHL at an acceptable level compared to our alternatives? Is there upside to him playing center in Hershey?

In my opinion, whatever falloff there might be at 3C with McMichael would be negligible. Some of it is offset by acquiring Brown. Overall, I think it's better for the team to develop McMike as a center in the NHL. But like CCF said, my opinion doesn't count for much. I just believe we're paying a lot to provide C insurance, and that those resources could be better utilized elsewhere.

rushing it doesnt really gain us much

3.5 million to spend elsewhere. And it's arguable that it'd be rushing anything. Playing Wilson as a 4th line plug who can only help you with his fists was an example of mismanaging a young player. Playing McMichael at his natural position in a situation where we need the help, he's shown some real promise, and costs 75% less is pretty low-risk from a cost/benefit standpoint.

We need him to develop, and I don't think the AHL helps him gain what he's missing. If he can fill that spot well -- not be a superstar, just do a yeoman's job -- then he's a capable 3C centering two good wings at $860K for the next two years.

Do you want to be able to afford an impact replacement for Backstrom (or a big impact player at any other position if Strome/CMM work out)? Wanna keep Orlov and Jensen? Then this is exactly the kind of risk you need to take. The closer we get to the end of Ovi, the more we'll need the cap savings that come with playing young, cost-controlled players.

Maybe Eller is a better player right now. My point is that even if he is, it's not a landslide. If we want to be competitive, I'd rather spend 3.5m swinging for the fences than being temporarily 10% better at one spot in the lineup.

 

[John Price]

 

[HeyMattyB]

Using the 2018 Capitals as an example of youth not being able to cut it is incredibly hilarious. You realize the 2018 Capitals had more young players than just about any other Caps team in the past decade, right?

This reminded me of the photo on the WaPo sports page cover when the Caps won in 2018. Ovi's holding the Cup, and half of the other players highlighted in the shot are, uh... Boyd, Gersich, and Bowey.

I have that article framed and hanging up in my office, and their presence still makes me laugh a little whenever I look at it.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but this is some misleading hyperbole. Twabby never said Laviolette ruined the season by not playing McMichael, just that McMichael should have played more and been utilized more effectively. It's easy to focus on Eller, the insurance he brings when we have C injuries, and the things he generally does well. But it's also easy to zoom out and admit that the team played fine without Eller in the lineup at all last year; that he doesn't move the needle nearly as much as he used to.

And this shouldn't be an Eller vs. McMichael debate. It should be simple questions about McMichael's development. Is there any point developing him at wing in any league? Can he play center in the NHL at an acceptable level compared to our alternatives? Is there upside to him playing center in Hershey?

In my opinion, whatever falloff there might be at 3C with McMichael would be negligible. Some of it is offset by acquiring Brown. Overall, I think it's better for the team to develop McMike as a center in the NHL. But like CCF said, my opinion doesn't count for much. I just believe we're paying a lot to provide C insurance, and that those resources could be better utilized elsewhere.



3.5 million to spend elsewhere. And it's arguable that it'd be rushing anything. Playing Wilson as a 4th line plug who can only help you with his fists was an example of mismanaging a young player. Playing McMichael at his natural position in a situation where we need the help, he's shown some real promise, and costs 75% less is pretty low-risk from a cost/benefit standpoint.

We need him to develop, and I don't think the AHL helps him gain what he's missing. If he can fill that spot well -- not be a superstar, just do a yeoman's job -- then he's a capable 3C centering two good wings at $860K for the next two years.

Do you want to be able to afford an impact replacement for Backstrom (or a big impact player at any other position if Strome/CMM work out)? Wanna keep Orlov and Jensen? Then this is exactly the kind of risk you need to take. The closer we get to the end of Ovi, the more we'll need the cap savings that come with playing young, cost-controlled players.

Maybe Eller is a better player right now. My point is that even if he is, it's not a landslide. If we want to be competitive, I'd rather spend 3.5m swinging for the fences than being temporarily 10% better at one spot in the lineup.

It seems quite possible (based on other moves we’ve seen league-wide; poor trade returns for good players and decent players not even getting qualified) that moving Eller would cost us vs getting a pick in return.

Would you attach a 2nd to move him today? I’d rather just let him pull off a likely contract year bounce back season, then decide later….if the cost to move on from him is prohibitive today.

I assume GMBM and Co. have kicked those tires and at least right now, it’s best to wait in their opinion. Lots could happen still and even into camps.

 

[Roshi]

I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but this is some misleading hyperbole. Twabby never said Laviolette ruined the season by not playing McMichael, just that McMichael should have played more and been utilized more effectively. It's easy to focus on Eller, the insurance he brings when we have C injuries, and the things he generally does well. But it's also easy to zoom out and admit that the team played fine without Eller in the lineup at all last year; that he doesn't move the needle nearly as much as he used to.

And this shouldn't be an Eller vs. McMichael debate. It should be simple questions about McMichael's development. Is there any point developing him at wing in any league? Can he play center in the NHL at an acceptable level compared to our alternatives? Is there upside to him playing center in Hershey?

In my opinion, whatever falloff there might be at 3C with McMichael would be negligible. Some of it is offset by acquiring Brown. Overall, I think it's better for the team to develop McMike as a center in the NHL. But like CCF said, my opinion doesn't count for much. I just believe we're paying a lot to provide C insurance, and that those resources could be better utilized elsewhere.



3.5 million to spend elsewhere. And it's arguable that it'd be rushing anything. Playing Wilson as a 4th line plug who can only help you with his fists was an example of mismanaging a young player. Playing McMichael at his natural position in a situation where we need the help, he's shown some real promise, and costs 75% less is pretty low-risk from a cost/benefit standpoint.

We need him to develop, and I don't think the AHL helps him gain what he's missing. If he can fill that spot well -- not be a superstar, just do a yeoman's job -- then he's a capable 3C centering two good wings at $860K for the next two years.

Do you want to be able to afford an impact replacement for Backstrom (or a big impact player at any other position if Strome/CMM work out)? Wanna keep Orlov and Jensen? Then this is exactly the kind of risk you need to take. The closer we get to the end of Ovi, the more we'll need the cap savings that come with playing young, cost-controlled players.

Maybe Eller is a better player right now. My point is that even if he is, it's not a landslide. If we want to be competitive, I'd rather spend 3.5m swinging for the fences than being temporarily 10% better at one spot in the lineup.

Like CapitalsCupReality said, its not just about ”lets trade for Eller assets and get a stud for his 3,5m”. Its not likely there currently is any sort of market for Lars. Its a lot more likely there might be market him on the TDL though, and as it stands we dont really have much to put that 3,5 mills in for. Who provides better value for that money now? Eller will be out of his contract next season when we need more cash for Orlov and Jensen. Thats what i mean by ”we dont gain much”, we dont have the target on sight where we would use the 3,5.

I mean, if you can pull out a deal for Miller or Chychrun you dont have to ask me twice if Eller is the first one to go on my list. But between that and now, depth should not be overlooked either based on couple last years.

Btw I appreciate your post, its good argumenting.

…And Wilson turned out to be great! As much as one can think it was a mistake, one can also see that the years spent as fourth line plug brought some elements to his game that he might not have catched if he was playing in Hershey. Those years maybe werent ideal to his developement, but they did not go totally wasted either.

 

[Jags]

”lets trade for Eller assets and get a stud for his 3,5m”

I don't think anyone's saying we can get a stud for that price. But it's space that can be added to other space. So you could trade Mantha and take on a 9.2m salary, for example 5.7 + 3.5. That's the power of cap space.

Maybe you guys are right that the market is lean for Eller, but if that's the case it's likely that it's only if they're trying to get something substantial for him. If all you want is the space and are willing to deal him for future considerations, I can't imagine there wouldn't be takers. The TDL has been mentioned a bunch, but I'm not convinced. If he has a bounce-back year maybe, but as-is? Maybe if a contender is in desperate need of a PKer?

The idea of losing him for nothing is immaterial to me. It's exactly what's going to happen if there isn't a TDL contender with a weird need.

And you're right that it's possible we don't have a move to make right now, or at least until we're in camp for a bit and identify weaknesses. I'm not saying, "We have to move Eller RIGHT NOW!!!" I'm saying this year is the time to let him go. Even if he stays all season, I wouldn't let him get in the way of properly developing McMichael.

All this talk about earning the spot is nonsensical to me. Eller vs. McMichael is an apples and oranges comparison at best. One guy figures to make us better defensively and the other offensively, and it's almost mutually exclusive. Eller is an offensive vacuum and McMike hasn't shown us anything notable defensively and doesn't kill penalties.

For me it's simple: McMichael currently appears to figure heavily into our future plans and Eller doesn't. I don't think we'd have to pay to trade him, but it seems likely we'd have to trade him for next to nothing. I'm okay with that IF we have our eye on a trade/acquisition/need that could use a 3.5m infusion.

If we're cool standing pat, we don't use Eller as an excuse to not ice McMike as a center, and don't mind a 3.5m 4LW who may be no better than AJF at 750K, great. Keep him around as a luxury depth piece. He is nice insurance to have around.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don't think anyone's saying we can get a stud for that price. But it's space that can be added to other space. So you could trade Mantha and take on a 9.2m salary, for example 5.7 + 3.5. That's the power of cap space.

Maybe you guys are right that the market is lean for Eller, but if that's the case it's likely that it's only if they're trying to get something substantial for him. If all you want is the space and are willing to deal him for future considerations, I can't imagine there wouldn't be takers. The TDL has been mentioned a bunch, but I'm not convinced. If he has a bounce-back year maybe, but as-is? Maybe if a contender is in desperate need of a PKer?

The idea of losing him for nothing is immaterial to me. It's exactly what's going to happen if there isn't a TDL contender with a weird need.

And you're right that it's possible we don't have a move to make right now, or at least until we're in camp for a bit and identify weaknesses. I'm not saying, "We have to move Eller RIGHT NOW!!!" I'm saying this year is the time to let him go. Even if he stays all season, I wouldn't let him get in the way of properly developing McMichael.

All this talk about earning the spot is nonsensical to me. Eller vs. McMichael is an apples and oranges comparison at best. One guy figures to make us better defensively and the other offensively, and it's almost mutually exclusive. Eller is an offensive vacuum and McMike hasn't shown us anything notable defensively and doesn't kill penalties.

For me it's simple: McMichael currently appears to figure heavily into our future plans and Eller doesn't. I don't think we'd have to pay to trade him, but it seems likely we'd have to trade him for next to nothing. I'm okay with that IF we have our eye on a trade/acquisition/need that could use a 3.5m infusion.

If we're cool standing pat, we don't use Eller as an excuse to not ice McMike as a center, and don't mind a 3.5m 4LW who may be no better than AJF at 750K, great. Keep him around as a luxury depth piece. He is nice insurance to have around.

Only the people prematurely pushing CMM for 3C are making it Eller vs CMM. Different roles. The biggest thing standing in the way of CMM seizing a spot is his own readiness. Hell he might be competing with Strome in reality…..not Eller.

You don’t think there‘s a cost to move a 3.5 mil bottom-6er, coming off a terrible year? Based on what we’ve seen from the market so far, I disagree.

I mean maybe we could give him away for nothing today (at best), but it seems much more likely that as camps shake out around the league, that he might become an actual trade asset and not a liability assuming he shows well in preseason.

 

[Silky mitts]

Just a question regarding signing Kuemper in FA. Is this the first time the Caps signed a big name goalie in FA? From my recollection, all the other goalies acquired in the teams history from outside the team have been through trades.

Jose Theodore

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Jose Theodore

Good pull….

 

[twabby]

This is a slippery slope fallacy used in an attempt to make occupational expertise and exclusive access appear to be an appeal to authority fallacy.

You can disagree with professionals all you want but the value of your opinion is going to be weighted in ways Zappa already mentioned.

-There are known-knowns that stat people use to make their decisions BUT... the pros also have access to those. We also don't know exactly what they're looking at but it's reasonable to assume they're aware of the public sources while having their own tables. Possible advantage to staff whose jobs are based on those data.

-There are known-unknowns that the pros and staff benefit from while we don't. Clear advantage to staff.

-There are unknown-unknowns in the equation as well, and those must always be at least considered. Massive advantage to staff.

If you disagree on something we all have equal access to, such as the legality of a play we all see on a video screen, then you can disagree with the pros on nearly equal footing. The slippery slope is unnecessary. It's one opinion about an event vs another.

But if you disagree on something with a high probability of x-unknowns, and a lot more potential subjectivity, then you're not likely in position to make a fully-informed call.

At best you have to limit your assessment to "I believe in my interpretation of this specific data over what I assume is the team's interpretation" rather than using the public data to draw down specific judgments about player moves, coaching ability, GM stupidity, etc.

Again the implication is that one can never question a player move or coaching decision in this case because we don't have all of the data, and never will. But how do we know this extra data is worth anything, assuming it's even being tracked?

It is an appeal to authority argument because we are relying on the authority figure to say that their data is better. There's no way for us to independently verify the data. My contention is that these authority figures are not making correct decisions in the first place, so you can see why I'm not willing to just trust that they are correctly using some more effective private data.

ummmmmmmm... does the obvious really need to be pointed out?

The professionals 100% have a completely unique data set that no one else does... they're there and see everything first-hand, directly, with exclusive access

On the ice, on the bench, in the locker room, in the classroom, full video access, access to the players, scouts, trainers, other coaches, even 'fancy stats' staff

You can disagree with anything you want, but your access to data is no comparison

I'm not saying I have access to better data than them. I'm saying that whatever data they do have they aren't using to make good decisions. I'd be very interested to see what information they had that pointed to Martin Fehervary being the best option in the top 4 alongside John Carlson for the last 5 months of the season and postseason, for instance.