Speculation: Caps Roster General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2022-23 Season Part 1: Free Agent Edition

[Empty Goal Net]

I'm not saying I have access to better data than them. I'm saying that whatever data they do have they aren't using to make good decisions. I'd be very interested to see what information they had that pointed to Martin Fehervary being the best option in the top 4 alongside John Carlson for the last 5 months of the season and postseason, for instance.

We all need to keep in mind that it's not only about having (or having access to) data. How those data are interpreted matters as much as, if not more than, the data themselves. Even wiser hockey minds than ourselves can look at the same set of data and draw different conclusions. So it's not really surprising that we often see things differently on these boards.

 

[Jags]

Only the people prematurely pushing CMM for 3C are making it Eller vs CMM. Different roles. The biggest thing standing in the way of CMM seizing a spot is his own readiness. Hell he might be competing with Strome in reality…..not Eller.

You don’t think there‘s a cost to move a 3.5 mil bottom-6er, coming off a terrible year? Based on what we’ve seen from the market so far, I disagree.

I mean maybe we could give him away for nothing today (at best), but it seems much more likely that as camps shake out around the league, that he might become an actual trade asset and not a liability assuming he shows well in preseason.

I agree with all of this. Whether or not he's tradeable at the moment with floor teams still low and him still being a worthwhile player? I think if they're shopping him at all (and it's possible they're not) they're in, "if we're not going to get something decent for him we may as well keep him" mode. I don't think they're as willing to part with him as we are, and that makes the market even thinner.

Waiting to see if that changes is fine with me. And again, I'm fine if they keep him so long as they don't have anything better to spend on and don't use him as an excuse to force McMichael to wing or Hershey. Eller is definitely good to have around because of his versatility. I just don't want to indulge that luxury if it's going to keep the kid from getting reps.

To put it simply, I really don't care if Eller is better. I want McMichael at center in DC because I don't think he gains anything by playing at wing or at any position in the AHL. I don't care how early it is for him or how COVID changed his timetable. If he starts at C up to December 1 and shits the bed, I'll gladly let you guys kick my ass up and down the board.

For me, it's not about gifting him anything. It's about him getting unsheltered minutes at center in actual games. Camp, preseason, practice, wing, Hershey -- he's had enough experience now that none of that is any kind of substitute for actually playing his natural position with and against NHL players in games that count.

 

[g00n]

Again the implication is that one can never question a player move or coaching decision in this case because we don't have all of the data, and never will. But how do we know this extra data is worth anything, assuming it's even being tracked?

It is an appeal to authority argument because we are relying on the authority figure to say that their data is better. There's no way for us to independently verify the data. My contention is that these authority figures are not making correct decisions in the first place, so you can see why I'm not willing to just trust that they are correctly using some more effective private data.



I'm not saying I have access to better data than them. I'm saying that whatever data they do have they aren't using to make good decisions. I'd be very interested to see what information they had that pointed to Martin Fehervary being the best option in the top 4 alongside John Carlson for the last 5 months of the season and postseason, for instance.

This is just you digging in your heels and ignoring what was said to you.

 

[Silky mitts]

The is Fehervary the Caps best D thread from November

Is Fehervary the best Cap d-man?

Felt like starting a thread about this guy main boards style. Im very impressed and surprised. He seems to fit so well in the Lavi system of full on D activation. Also plays with an edge and got a nice goal against the Pens. So yeah, what are your thoughts? Is he the best D at the moment? Or...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Only the people prematurely pushing CMM for 3C are making it Eller vs CMM. Different roles. The biggest thing standing in the way of CMM seizing a spot is his own readiness. Hell he might be competing with Strome in reality…..not Eller.

You don’t think there‘s a cost to move a 3.5 mil bottom-6er, coming off a terrible year? Based on what we’ve seen from the market so far, I disagree.

I mean maybe we could give him away for nothing today (at best), but it seems much more likely that as camps shake out around the league, that he might become an actual trade asset and not a liability assuming he shows well in preseason.

Eller didn’t have a terrible year, I don’t think. It wasn’t up to his usual standard but he wasn’t far off points wise from other years either on an aggregate or a per game level and he still had decent underlying stats.

Eller’s got value. $3.5M for a middle six center with a ring who can PK and sub in temporarily as your 2C in a pinch is solid value, especially in this cap world. Would be very surprised if they would need to pay to get rid of him. They could ship him to a team like Buffalo or Seattle or someone else who wants to take that next step and needs some solid veterans to insulate their young guys but doesn’t want to commit to a long-term FA solution because they have young players that need time to develop. If I was running one of those teams I’d take flier on Eller for a pick and if we weren’t in contention I’d flip him at the deadline since teams always want center reinforcements and Eller at 50% retention could probably net a pretty decent return from a contender.

My issue is I want more speed and creativity in the lineup, and Eller doesn’t really provide either of those two things at this point. I think they have enough of the two-way, limited-offensively depth forwards and they need space in the lineup for guys who can create offense consistently.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

You don’t have to sell me on in form Eller. His last year was poor because he wasn’t. agree to disagree on value today.


Besides that, I already suggested moving him later when his value has had a chance to rebound. We’re talking about his value currently and why he hasn’t already been moved to clear room for CMM, assuming he’s ready.

 

[RedRocking]

All this talk about earning the spot is nonsensical to me. Eller vs. McMichael is an apples and oranges comparison at best. One guy figures to make us better defensively and the other offensively, and it's almost mutually exclusive. Eller is an offensive vacuum and McMike hasn't shown us anything notable defensively and doesn't kill penalties

This is my biggest concern with the Strome/Eller/CMM competition. You can’t have only one defensive capable center, in Dowd, playing every night. And yes, we do have a lot of defensive utility type middle 6 forwards to help shelter CMM/Strome. But that can only go so far - they need to be able to defend their own position.

Maybe if Mojo is 3LW, he could step in as C in PK2 or in late game defensive zone starts (or even Oshie?). But generally, it seems risky to kneecap the team in that way until Strome/CMM demonstrates some defensive ability.

With Backstrom’s injury, and no real replacement (like a JT Miller) that can play in all situations, there are too many question marks to get rid of a known quantity in Eller. If we had pre-injury Backy, I’d be all for getting Eller out of town and presumptively giving the job to CMM.

Worst case, Eller just plays out his contract and is gone next year, when the team will have a clearer picture of Backstrom’s future and cap money. CMM, if he shows improvement this year, will probably be the unquestioned 3C to start 23-24 (hence BMac’s, “he’s a year ahead of schedule” refrain). It’s not like Eller is going to block CMM, or LaPierre for that matter, for several years - we just have one strange (center position) year coming up.

So, imho, It’s not so bad having Eller around for this year. I don’t think there will be a trade worthwhile out there, and don’t want to throw in future considerations to dump him. If CMM beats him out in camp, then great! If Eller starts the season, but CMM works his way in and takes the job - great! If Lavi works with Strome on his defensive game (a la Kuzy last year), allowing them to only need CMM for his offensive abilities - great!

But, if there’s an injury or CMM/Strome falters, Eller is a solid option to have.

And in general, maybe we can save the freaking out about Lavi screwing the kids until we actually get through training camp and see what happens?

 

[Devil Dancer]

Again the implication is that one can never question a player move or coaching decision in this case because we don't have all of the data, and never will. But how do we know this extra data is worth anything, assuming it's even being tracked?

It is an appeal to authority argument because we are relying on the authority figure to say that their data is better. There's no way for us to independently verify the data. My contention is that these authority figures are not making correct decisions in the first place, so you can see why I'm not willing to just trust that they are correctly using some more effective private data.



I'm not saying I have access to better data than them. I'm saying that whatever data they do have they aren't using to make good decisions. I'd be very interested to see what information they had that pointed to Martin Fehervary being the best option in the top 4 alongside John Carlson for the last 5 months of the season and postseason, for instance.

There's a certain set of posters that always take management's side. It's been this way as long as I've been here. I still remember the arguments against firing GMGM and even Hanlon!

 

[g00n]

There's a certain set of posters that always take management's side. It's been this way as long as I've been here. I still remember the arguments against firing GMGM and even Hanlon!

I was for firing both of those guys well before most. Who is this certain set of posters who always favor mgmt? I don't see anyone like that here.

One can believe stats are only the tip of the iceberg and still be unbiased about mgmt, yes?

 

[SherVaughn30]

This is my biggest concern with the Strome/Eller/CMM competition. You can’t have only one defensive capable center, in Dowd, playing every night. And yes, we do have a lot of defensive utility type middle 6 forwards to help shelter CMM/Strome. But that can only go so far - they need to be able to defend their own position.

Maybe if Mojo is 3LW, he could step in as C in PK2 or in late game defensive zone starts (or even Oshie?). But generally, it seems risky to kneecap the team in that way until Strome/CMM demonstrates some defensive ability.

With Backstrom’s injury, and no real replacement (like a JT Miller) that can play in all situations, there are too many question marks to get rid of a known quantity in Eller. If we had pre-injury Backy, I’d be all for getting Eller out of town and presumptively giving the job to CMM.

Worst case, Eller just plays out his contract and is gone next year, when the team will have a clearer picture of Backstrom’s future and cap money. CMM, if he shows improvement this year, will probably be the unquestioned 3C to start 23-24 (hence BMac’s, “he’s a year ahead of schedule” refrain). It’s not like Eller is going to block CMM, or LaPierre for that matter, for several years - we just have one strange (center position) year coming up.

So, imho, It’s not so bad having Eller around for this year. I don’t think there will be a trade worthwhile out there, and don’t want to throw in future considerations to dump him. If CMM beats him out in camp, then great! If Eller starts the season, but CMM works his way in and takes the job - great! If Lavi works with Strome on his defensive game (a la Kuzy last year), allowing them to only need CMM for his offensive abilities - great!

But, if there’s an injury or CMM/Strome falters, Eller is a solid option to have.

And in general, maybe we can save the freaking out about Lavi screwing the kids until we actually get through training camp and see what happens?

It is what it is now. Just have to hope Kuemper is a better goalie on the PK, than what we got from Vitek/Sammy. Why am I saying this? Well goaltending can cover up deficiencies on a teams PK.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Again the implication is that one can never question a player move or coaching decision in this case because we don't have all of the data, and never will. But how do we know this extra data is worth anything, assuming it's even being tracked?

It is an appeal to authority argument because we are relying on the authority figure to say that their data is better. There's no way for us to independently verify the data. My contention is that these authority figures are not making correct decisions in the first place, so you can see why I'm not willing to just trust that they are correctly using some more effective private data.



I'm not saying I have access to better data than them. I'm saying that whatever data they do have they aren't using to make good decisions. I'd be very interested to see what information they had that pointed to Martin Fehervary being the best option in the top 4 alongside John Carlson for the last 5 months of the season and postseason, for instance.

Never question dear leader.

There's a certain set of posters that always take management's side. It's been this way as long as I've been here. I still remember the arguments against firing GMGM and even Hanlon!

Indeed. They seem to always have a problem questioning any decisions made by the team ops.

 

[Ridley Simon]

There's a certain set of posters that always take management's side. It's been this way as long as I've been here. I still remember the arguments against firing GMGM and even Hanlon!

That’s silly. Name one? Just one…..

Never question dear leader.


Indeed. They seem to always have a problem questioning any decisions made by the team ops.

Again. Who is “they”?

 

[trick9]

I really like our cap situation after this upcoming season. Will like it even more if some of our youngsters take a step forward. These are the signed guys:

Ovechkin (9.5m) - Kuznetsov (7.8m) - Wilson (5.1m)
? - ? - Mantha (5.7m)
Lapierre (0.863m) - McMichael (0.863m) - ?
? - Dowd (1.3m) - ?
Snively (0.8m) - Protas (0.789m) - Leason (0.775m)
Malenstyn (0.762m) - Rybinski (0.859m)

RFA's: Strome, AJF, Borgstrom, Pilon, Clark, Sutter
Questionable: Backstrom (9.200m)

? - Carlson (8.0m)
? - ?
? - ?
Johansen (0.763m) - Iorio (0.845m)

RFA's: Fehervary, Alexeyev, Carlsson

Kuemper (5.2m)
Lindgren (1.1m)
Stevenson (0.855m)

Listed Backstrom as questionable, we'll see how that goes.

Big decisions looming but lots to work with. I'd hope that Orlov extension is agreed as early as possible. For next summer i hope Wilson extension is on the top of the list, assuming he recovers fully. I didn't start to put the rookies and kids into the line-up, that will shape itself during the season but there are lots of spots to win. Hopefully at both forward and D some of the kids take their chance and run with it. Cheap contributors would be exactly what we need to try and keep our window open.

 

[g00n]

That’s silly. Name one? Just one…..


Again. Who is “they”?

I think if you don't spread derm n glerm every day while demanding IMMEDIATE and decisive action to make this team as young and fast as possible then you're considered pro-management. Or something.

 

[Langway]

 

[John Price]

Got me a bit excited at first that we had someone to work on the pp (until I saw PK). Think Forsythe is still there lol

 

[hb13xchamps]

Kind of expected the Allen hire. He is a solid assistant coach but left a lot to be desired as the HC of the Bears. I believe his last NHL duty was in Arizona where he was also in charge of the PK. I think he’ll do fine in the role.

 

[ClevelandCapsfan]

 

[twabby]

Some serious Nick Jensen hate here!

 

[Devil Dancer]

That’s silly. Name one? Just one…..


Again. Who is “they”?

I wish I remembered specifics! Alas, Hanlon was a decade and a half ago. But I do specifically remember some folks arguing that Hanlon wasn't the problem, and that the personnel wasn't capable of making a playoff push. I'm around 75% sure a couple of our current posters were in that bunch, but I'm not certain enough to call them out. And we had a few GMGM supporters even after the Forsberg trade, too.

And really, is it so surprising given the "if you knew the game you'd be in it" posts from the last few pages?

 

[g00n]

I wish I remembered specifics! Alas, Hanlon was a decade and a half ago. But I do specifically remember some folks arguing that Hanlon wasn't the problem, and that the personnel wasn't capable of making a playoff push. I'm around 75% sure a couple of our current posters were in that bunch, but I'm not certain enough to call them out. And we had a few GMGM supporters even after the Forsberg trade, too.

And really, is it so surprising given the "if you knew the game you'd be in it" posts from the last few pages?

I joined this board instead of lurking specifically to celebrate Hanlon being fired and comment on it.

I can't think of who you might be talking about other than maybe Tex and as you should be aware he's gone.

My perception is the opposite of yours. For the last few years this board has become increasingly dominated by demands for changes to the GM, the coaches, and all the older or slower players. It's been relentless and is sometimes completely unreasonable.

It's not "pro-management" to pump the brakes when angry, wasted fans howl for the head of a 2nd year HC or Cup-winning GM after a few bad losses.

Or debate the thinking behind X or Y move (or non-move).

Or correctly point out that a bunch of amateurs and kids reading blogs and looking at stats aren't qualified to run a professional hockey club simply because they believe in data

Or that one bad decision by the GM means they're completely incompetent and anyone can do the job.

But this is the kind of shit that's posted here every day now. And we're complaining about some suppsedly pro-management posts from 15 years ago?

This isn't the most annoying offseason by a long shot but I really can't wait for the games to begin.

 

[traparatus]

If your reaction to a statement 'some fans always side with the management' is to immediately become very defensive, you can stop wondering who they are talking about. It's you.

Another good indicator is if you conclude most discussions by saying that the people running the team know better just because they are running the team. You know who you are. Ever start a sentence with 'I don't mean to appeal to authority but....'?

 

[John Price]

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Tex used to take a ton of heat here because he would try to explain why coaching decisions and roster decisions were made. I happen to think he had a pretty good handle on the “why” and instead people would just bash him for being a Management apologist.

There are no full out pro management posters here. Mostly there are a handful of radicals who think they know better than the professionals (who have more complete data), and want radical changes to staff and roster pretty regularly, and the rest of the posters here are more even keeled and want measured approaches and responses to Team issues.


If you want radical changes, go be a Flyers fan. They’re willing to blow it all up annually it seems.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

Tex used to take a ton of heat here because he would try to explain why coaching decisions and roster decisions were made. I happen to think he had a pretty good handle on the “why” and instead people would just bash him for being a Management apologist.

There are no full out pro management posters here. Mostly there are a handful of radicals who think they know better than the professionals (who have more complete data), and want radical changes to staff and roster pretty regularly, and the rest of the posters here are more even keeled and want measured approaches and responses to Team issues.


If you want radical changes, go be a Flyers fan. They’re willing to blow it all up annually it seems.

Just to be clear, I’m liking the part about tex, not the part about becoming a Flyers fan because that’s gross and uncalled for.