Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2020 Offseason Pt. 3

[txpd]

I am extremely disappointed that no one has offer sheeted any RFAs from Tampa or NYI, especially in light of the current cap freeze situation. I thought this would be the year for utter chaos. But then again, I do like to watch the world burn.

(from The Athletic)

The NHL's salary cap crunch: How much do all 31 teams have left to spend?

*- totals are prior to the Sabres signing of Linus Ullmark late Sunday night

Why would you think this would be the year for utter chaos? My read is that this is a year for conservatism. League income has been trashed. Teams have no idea what the future holds. Expecting gunslinger roster/salary cap play seems unlikely

 

[tenken00]

Why would you think this would be the year for utter chaos? My read is that this is a year for conservatism. League income has been trashed. Teams have no idea what the future holds. Expecting gunslinger roster/salary cap play seems unlikely

That was hyperbole, but utter chaos for Tampa and NYI. As in the conditions were ripe with the notion of offer sheeting actually working in favor of the team offering.

 

[HTFN]

That was hyperbole, but utter chaos for Tampa and NYI. As in the conditions were ripe with the notion of offer sheeting actually working in favor of the team offering.

But especially this year, a team doesn't have to make a big move. A big swing is totally one way to make things work, but we've seen before that the swing has to be huge or else it actually sort of helps the negotiating team get the ball rolling. When the contract uncertainty is taken care of the dominoes sort of start moving naturally and the game is more about getting what you can or losing out. Right now, nobody can take a swing big enough due to the bizarre scenario we live in this year, and doing something that seems reasonable for the team's future is about as likely to help Tampa match and move contracts.

It almost seems like GMs, with the help of one big virus, learned that there's really no rush either. Unless I'm mistaken, Tampa's going to have to continue to try to make something work, it doesn't get any easier for them. The fact that nobody's jumped on the opportunity almost means there's going to have to be a better opportunity down the road, or else Tampa just faces penalties outright. Either way works for teams with their own questions going forward.

I think in a world with no shutdown, maybe we'd have seen it again, but it'd probably go about as well as Montreal setting Carolina up to match a comfortable contract.

 

[tenken00]

But especially this year, a team doesn't have to make a big move. A big swing is totally one way to make things work, but we've seen before that the swing has to be huge or else it actually sort of helps the negotiating team get the ball rolling. When the contract uncertainty is taken care of the dominoes sort of start moving naturally and the game is more about getting what you can or losing out. Right now, nobody can take a swing big enough due to the bizarre scenario we live in this year, and doing something that seems reasonable for the team's future is about as likely to help Tampa match and move contracts.

It almost seems like GMs, with the help of one big virus, learned that there's really no rush either. Unless I'm mistaken, Tampa's going to have to continue to try to make something work, it doesn't get any easier for them. The fact that nobody's jumped on the opportunity almost means there's going to have to be a better opportunity down the road, or else Tampa just faces penalties outright. Either way works for teams with their own questions going forward.

I think in a world with no shutdown, maybe we'd have seen it again, but it'd probably go about as well as Montreal setting Carolina up to match a comfortable contract.

I think it has more to do with the total disdain for the idea of offer sheets in general that is pervasive throughout the league more than anything else. Even to the point of organizations not willing to take part even if there are clear benefits. You have rogue players like Bergevin every once in a while to do an offer that even he knows will never work. But even he is cap strapped this year with Montreal being only 500K below the cap.

It feels like the NHL only agreed to offer sheet language in the RFA portion of the CBAs because it looks good on paper for the NHLPA. In fact, the NHL's bastardization of it, unlike the NBA's, goes totally against the original intent of having RFAs in the first place.

Not that I mind. I'm a fan of the Caps organization more so than any one player, but it is what it is.

 

[txpd]

I think it has more to do with the total disdain for the idea of offer sheets in general that is pervasive throughout the league more than anything else. Even to the point of organizations not willing to take part even if there are clear benefits. You have rogue players like Bergevin every once in a while to do an offer that even he knows will never work. But even he is cap strapped this year with Montreal being only 500K below the cap.

It feels like the NHL only agreed to offer sheet language in the RFA portion of the CBAs because it looks good on paper for the NHLPA. In fact, the NHL's bastardization of it, unlike the NBA's, goes totally against the original intent of having RFAs in the first place.

Not that I mind. I'm a fan of the Caps organization more so than any one player, but it is what it is.

Isnt an offer sheet by its definition going to be a max market contract and almost always a bad contract? There are no bargains in offer sheet world

 

[tenken00]

Isnt an offer sheet by its definition going to be a max market contract and almost always a bad contract? There are no bargains in offer sheet world

Nope. From what I understand, the offer sheet is whatever the team offering wants to offer. The compensation then is tied directly to the new AAV in the offer sheet once the new team obtains the player.

You would think that at the very minimum, the offer sheet has to be above the QO. So that sets the base of both the offer sheet and the compensation, but anything can be offered above that.

 

[txpd]

Nope. From what I understand, the offer sheet is whatever the team offering wants to offer. The compensation then is tied directly to the new AAV in the offer sheet once the new team obtains the player.

You would think that at the very minimum, the offer sheet has to be above the QO. So that sets the base of both the offer sheet and the compensation, but anything can be offered above that.

I know what an offer sheet is. To get a player by an offer sheet you have to offer more contract than the original team is willing to pay and more than any other team on the market knowing the player is going to sign an offer sheet in an attempt to move. Its a heavy contract

 

[tenken00]

I know what an offer sheet is. To get a player by an offer sheet you have to offer more contract than the original team is willing to pay and more than any other team on the market knowing the player is going to sign an offer sheet in an attempt to move. Its a heavy contract

Well, it depends on who the player is and who the team is that the player is an RFA with. For a Barzal, yes it's going to be a heavy contract. But for a Sergachev, Cernak or a Cirelli? Not so much.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Well, it depends on who the player is and who the team is that the player is an RFA with. For a Barzal, yes it's going to be a heavy contract. But for a Sergachev, Cernak or a Cirelli? Not so much.

Well, we won’t know. Unless it happens.

I think what Tex is saying is that any offer sheet will likely be an overpay. Which makes sense, 95% of the time.

perhaps due to circumstances, this is the 5% of the time. Right now.

 

[txpd]

Well, it depends on who the player is and who the team is that the player is an RFA with. For a Barzal, yes it's going to be a heavy contract. But for a Sergachev, Cernak or a Cirelli? Not so much.

Its going to be a heavy contract for the player involved. If its easily matchable, the team matches and then trades off less valuable assets to create the cap room. Teams are not going to let parts of their team walk away for next to nothing when they have control.

 

[tenken00]

Well, we won’t know. Unless it happens.

I think what Tex is saying is that any offer sheer will likely be an overpay. Which makes sense, 95% of the time.

perhaps due to circumstances, this is the 5% of the time. Right now.

Its going to be a heavy contract for the player involved. If its easily matchable, the team matches and then trades off less valuable assets to create the cap room. Teams are not going to let parts of their team walk away for next to nothing when they have control.

True. But players like an Aho or a Barzal are always going to get paid. No matter if it was from an offer sheet or not. And those are players that teams would definitely match whatever the cost (and feel animosity about)

It's the mid-range tier and lower that would benefit the most and it wouldn't break the bank for most teams.

 

[txpd]

True. But players like an Aho or a Barzal are always going to get paid. No matter if it was from an offer sheet or not. And those are players that teams would definitely match whatever the cost (and feel animosity about)

It's the mid-range tier and lower that would benefit the most and it wouldn't break the bank for most teams.

The mid range and lower rfa's would still be an overpay to offer sheet. The holding team would still match. You arent going to steal an NHL player for a bargain off another team's roster. A secondary rfa means a secondary rfa overpay. Not a bargain

 

[Ridley Simon]

The mid range and lower rfa's would still be an overpay to offer sheet. The holding team would still match. You arent going to steal an NHL player for a bargain off another team's roster. A secondary rfa means a secondary rfa overpay. Not a bargain

I guess the mindset is Tampa can’t really match anything. But I agree with your overall premise

 

[txpd]

I guess the mindset is Tampa can’t really match anything. But I agree with your overall premise

If its known among the other teams that Tampa cant match and that they are defenseless with their rfa's then there will be a ufa like bidding war for the players in question

 

[tenken00]

The mid range and lower rfa's would still be an overpay to offer sheet. The holding team would still match. You arent going to steal an NHL player for a bargain off another team's roster. A secondary rfa means a secondary rfa overpay. Not a bargain

Well not exactly. If another team looked at Siegenthaler and thought the moon of him and signed him to an offer sheet of $1.5 million for him, you wouldn't just take the 3rd rounder?

 

[txpd]

Well not exactly. If another team looked at Siegenthaler and thought the moon of him and signed him to an offer sheet of $1.5 million of him, you wouldn't just take the 3rd rounder?

No. Pretty damn sure that MacLellan has no interest in trading Siegenthaler for a 3rd rounder. A 3rd rounder is almost always a waste of time. Its nothing but a lottery ticket. The thing is that Siegenthaler isnt going to want a 5 year deal at 1.5m and he isnt going to want to leave the Capitals over $500k in a one year deal.

For most of these players there are really easy reasons why it makes no sense for the player until it reaches the point where it makes no sense for the offer sheeting team

 

[tenken00]

No. Pretty damn sure that MacLellan has no interest in trading Siegenthaler for a 3rd rounder. A 3rd rounder is almost always a waste of time. Its nothing but a lottery ticket. The thing is that Siegenthaler isnt going to want a 5 year deal at 1.5m and he isnt going to want to leave the Capitals over $500k in a one year deal.

For most of these players there are really easy reasons why it makes no sense for the player until it reaches the point where it makes no sense for the offer sheeting team

So you are saying that Siegenthaler would rather sign a 1 year 800K contract to stay with the Caps instead of signing say a 2 to 3 year x $1.5 million offer sheet?

 

[Roshi]

So you are saying that Siegenthaler would rather sign a 1 year 800K contract to stay with the Caps instead of signing say a 2 to 3 year x $1.5 million offer sheet?

That question is purely hypothetical in a way that its unrealistic (and not for me, but anyways). At current league wide situation nobody was going to give Siegenhalert 2 to 3 year x 1,5 million offer sheet.

Even without the COVID lurking around, everyone has their own prospects/valued veterans that they favour for 6-7D spot. These guys dont get offer sheeted. Its like us offer sheeting Travis Dermott.

 

[tenken00]

That question is purely hypothetical in a way that its unrealistic (and not for me, but anyways). At current league wide situation nobody was going to give Siegenhalert 2 to 3 year x 1,5 million offer sheet.

Even without the COVID lurking around, everyone has their own prospects/valued veterans that they favour for 6-7D spot. These guys dont get offer sheeted. Its like us offer sheeting Travis Dermott.

Well that was my point. Offer sheets are so rarely used and looked down upon that it just sounds unnatural even thinking about it. Unlike in the NBA where it's a lot more common and no one bats an eye.

 

[pman25]

I wonder if the Avs "threatened" to offer sheet Toews, or perhaps more likely another team was getting ready to, so the Isles opted to send him for two 2nd rd picks to Colorado? That's my theory. Probably wrong, but I do wonder if that situation is more likely than an actual offer sheet. Just propose a trade first then feel them out to see if an offer sheet is worth it, maybe that happens more than we think.

 

[CapsYeti12]

Iˈm only interested in your opinion on this trade proposal for clear cap space before start of the new season. It seems like we have to trade one of our D-man and Jensen is mentioned the most. But IMO weˈll have to add some assets to trade to be completed. So what about... Jensen + Vanecek for e.g. 3rd round pick 2021. Since Vitek isnˈt waiver exempt, weˈll risk his departure. What do you think? And which team could be interested in this couple?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

So you are saying that Siegenthaler would rather sign a 1 year 800K contract to stay with the Caps instead of signing say a 2 to 3 year x $1.5 million offer sheet?

for now, yes. Next time around it could be different. He’s betting on himself this year.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Iˈm only interested in your opinion on this trade proposal for clear cap space before start of the new season. It seems like we have to trade one of our D-man and Jensen is mentioned the most. But IMO weˈll have to add some assets to trade to be completed. So what about... Jensen + Vanecek for e.g. 3rd round pick 2021. Since Vitek isnˈt waiver exempt, weˈll risk his departure. What do you think? And which team could be interested in this couple?

I don’t think they pull a trigger on a deal like that. Basically giving away 2 assets that they like. I don’t see it.

they are cap compliant now. They don’t have any true “holes”. Sure, they’d love another top 9 scoring winger, but who doesn’t?

There are still a LOT of quality players out there, the smart play is to see which vet F (that you value) will sign a yr “prove it” deal to get a chance for to play top 9 minutes for you....at the vet min of 750k. A la Thornton w Tor. Maybe a Brassard. Or a Perry, or a Haula. There are lots. Let them wage war vs Sprong to see who sticks as 9RW and or 13F.

won’t hurt the Cap at all. And won’t need to deal Jensen “just because”.

then during the season, see how TVR, LaDue, Fever, Alexeyev are doing. If all are adapting to Lavy’s system and playing well, then you have the freedom to deal Jensen for value. Not “just because”. By then injuries will have happened and people will need D depth (heck, we could easily as well and want to keep him then)

I’d do nothing save sign a few more vet F for the minimum. More the merrier

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I think they're probably done unless they get a deal they really like. Most likely they'll wait and see how 3RW plays out in camp and over the first few months of the season before making a move, if they deem one necessary. Maybe Sprong turns into the next Connolly or maybe Panik finds his footing next to Eller. I also think they'll want to see how the new pairs gel before moving out any defensemen.

They have a new coach, no glaring holes (outside of 3RW, potentially) and they're cap compliant... unless something out there is a can't-miss transaction they'll likely just sit tight and evaluate how it plays out.

Now of course since I just said that, we'll hear about a trade soon.

 

[tenken00]

for now, yes. Next time around it could be different. He’s betting on himself this year.

Of course that is entirely possible and valid. That is all on the player. And all on the team, both old and new. Offer sheets are just a tool, like any other. It can be a tool to not only help players, but also teams looking to improve. It just gives decisions more options.

It should be a valid avenue to pursue without the negative connotations as long as it makes sense from a team construction and financial standpoint without fear of retribution. But its not utilized at all, not because its obsolete, but because its frowned upon. That's all.