Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2020 Offseason Pt. 1

[francaisvolantsparis]

the only words that came to mind.. unabomber and manifesto.

Man, you do not need to be PhD in maths from Harvard to understand hockey GM things and stuff. But you need a minimum of logic.

 

[HecticGlow]

Man, you do not need to be PhD in maths from Harvard to understand hockey GM things and stuff. But you need a minimum of logic.

I think most Harvard mathematicians would confirm a PhD in mathematics is no help to understanding your use of ‘logic’.

I think there’s a fair chance GMBM makes no significant move on D, at least until the TDL. Carlson and Orlov are both proven top-4 D and cup winners. Kempny has been a top-4 D (and a cup winner) pre-injury, and there’s a decent chance he can round back into form with a proper off-season. He showed promising signs in his first couple of games back in the bubble. Jensen at 2RD is probably pushing it a little come the playoffs, but would be a very solid 3RD who can move up if needed (in a similar vein to Orpik). He could stay at 2RD until the TDL to bank cap space for an upgrade.

The key problems the D had this year were a lack of structure and lack of discipline. Those are both things that are, to a decent extent at least, on the coaching staff. With so little room to work against the cap, I wouldn’t be surprised if GMBM wants to see how this group of players can perform when properly coached.

You keep Dillon and lose Kempny, you potentially improve defensively but lose your third (and last) D who can actually put up decent points across a season - you’re not getting many assists, let alone goals, from Dillon, Siegenthaler or Jensen, and Fehervery isn’t exactly an offensive-minded D either.

Dillon-Carlson
Orlov-Jensen

is considerably weaker in two-way game than

Kempny-Carlson
Orlov-Niskanen.

If we keep shedding talent up front, we can’t afford to have so few D on the backend capable of pitching in offensively. On the other hand if you keep both Dillon and Kempny, you’ve no money to spend up front or in goal, and limit yourself for another couple of years. I wouldn’t be surprised if GMBM initially makes no significant changes to the D save for replacing Gudas with Fehervery.

 

[g00n]

Man, you do not need to be PhD in maths from Harvard to understand hockey GM things and stuff. But you need a minimum of logic.

I see what you were trying to do but it still might not be accurate.

If you had a solid lineup with every D in the correct position, and I were to offer you a trade of 2x2D for your 1D, would you take it? This would bump everyone down one step and you would have a 2D instead of a 1D up top, so your best total would be 2,2,2,3,4,5. In your system that scores an 18 which is several points better than the perfect 21. So you'd HAVE to take that deal, right?

But really all you've done is remove the usually borderline 6/7D and lost your 1D, who could be MILES better than anyone else and the key to your power play (and maybe success in the regular season, thus making or missing the playoffs and keeping your job as GM). There's also the salary cap to consider.

I think the reason teams don't do it this way is because it's not simple, and requires various means of weighting values.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

I see what you were trying to do but it still might not be accurate.

If you had a solid lineup with every D in the correct position, and I were to offer you a trade of 2x2D for your 1D, would you take it? This would bump everyone down one step and you would have a 2D instead of a 1D up top, so your best total would be 2,2,2,3,4,5. In your system that scores an 18 which is several points better than the perfect 21. So you'd HAVE to take that deal, right?

But really all you've done is remove the usually borderline 6/7D and lost your 1D, who could be MILES better than anyone else and the key to your power play (and maybe success in the regular season, thus making or missing the playoffs and keeping your job as GM). There's also the salary cap to consider.

I think the reason teams don't do it this way is because it's not simple, and requires various means of weighting values.

If 2x2D together are making the same money as one 1D than yes, you do the trade. I'll trade Seth Jones for two Dmitry Orlovs with 50% retained in a heartbet. It is not only about value but also about how much this value costs to you. How much the players you have are underpaid. Not all people here are aware of it. In my model you have two equations. Total value you get and the underpayment amount. You have an agenda for both of these values.

I told it from the start, the model is simple, simplistic. It doesn't reflect realty exactly as it is. But it shows why we do not need Dillon for $2.5M+ money, why Siegenthaler have nothing to do in the playoffs or why Kempny and Fehervary are priceless in the regular season roster.

A wasted year starts from bad decisions. But as you say we actually do not need to take a lot of decisions now. Only thing we need is a first pair guy. There are some good names on the UFA market. Everyone else can stay. The new coach can make his decisions later. The only problem is that we have two places for three players: Kempny, Dillon and Jensen. If Dillon doesn't take $2.5M per year, he is the odd man out. If he takes it, you have to trade Jensen or Kempny. But Jensen, Dillon, Fehervary and Siege are all defense first redundant players. Chimistry will be hard to find.

 

[Ridley Simon]

2+5+5+2+7+5=26 It is not 23. You are wrong.
Dillon is a 5D. Not 4D. Here is why:



I consider Carlson as 2D and Pietrangelo 1D. The difference is not their offensive ability, but all the rest.

You consider Carlson 1D or 2D change nothing in my reasoning. Carlson was with the team in 2018 and would be next year. All what I do is comparing 2018 roster to the 2021 one.

You consider Dillon 4D or 5D change nothing in my reasoning. You can only give him $1.5M-$2.5M per year money anyways. Read my post.

Sigh.

If you are going to be cocky about it. At least be accurate.

Again, you are using Siegenthaler and not Kempny. Siegs is the 7th D in your “scenario”. Look at it again. Where is Kempny? Your “4D”? You left him off and added Siegs.

Orlov (2), Carlson (2), Kempny (4), Dillon (5), Jensen (5), Fehervery (5). Thats 6 players. Your dumb math here makes 23. Siegs isn’t even playing. So why count him?

who exactly is WRONG here?

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Sigh. Again, you are using Siegenthaler and not Kempny. Siegs is the 7th D in your “scenario”. Look at it again. Where is Kempny? Your “4D”? You left him off and added Siegs.

Orlov (2), Carlson (2), Kempny (4), Dillon (5), Jensen (5), Fehervery (5). Thats 6 players. Your dumb math here makes 23. Siegs isn’t even playing. So why count him?

who exactly is WRONG here?

If you go with the following D pairs:

Orlov-Jensen
Dillon-Carlson
Sieg-Fehervary

your X=2+5+5+2+7+5=26

Are you blind? There is no Kempny here.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Are you blind? There is no Kempny here.

Exactly. Why. Why are you cherry picking the worst D Corp you can? Where is Kempny?

Why not put Lewington and or Hobbs in as well? The 9&10?

it’s stupid

 

[maacoshark]

You guys are arguing about Kempny?

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Exactly. Why. Why are you cherry picking the worst D Corp you can? Where is Kempny?

Why not put Lewington and or Hobbs in as well? The 9&10?

it’s stupid

It was an example. Many users of these boards suggested this exact line-up. I show that it is terrible. Here we do agree stupid me and you. If you change Siege with Kempny, the value gets better. But X=23 is still terrible as hell. We need to do MUCH better to pass the first round of playoffs.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

the only words that came to mind.. unabomber and manifesto.

hahahaaaaaaaaaa!

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

You guys are arguing about Kempny?

People are thinking rigidly. They think only about value, when they want Dillon for no matter money he asks, or they think about money only then they want to get rid of Kempny no matter value we lose. They are unable to solve an equation with two variables. Thinking is a stupid prosess they say.

 

[txpd]

Did I miss it? We are not getting the post playoffs report on who was playing with an injury and so forth? Are we going to get nothing on Carlson or did i miss it?

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

 

[VaCaps Fan]

What is the mathematical formula for the Stanley Cup?

 

[Ridley Simon]

It was an example. Many users of these boards suggested this exact line-up. I show that it is terrible. Here we do agree stupid me and you. If you change Siege with Kempny, the value gets better. But X=23 is still terrible as hell. We need to do MUCH better to pass the first round of playoffs.

Again, your values are subjective. Carlson is absolutely a 1D. He’s probably going to win the Norris, or at worst be #2. Sure, we can talk about the Norris etc, and who should win it — but if you think there are 30 defensemen that NHL GM’s would take over Carlson, you are crazy. He may not be top 10 (could argue he is though), but he’s absolutely top 20 and at worst top 30. He’s a #1.

and if Kempny is a 4D, Dillon is as well. Could argue for Jensen. I think as fairer depiction is all 3 are 4.5’s, by your metric.

1+2+4.5+4.5+4.5+5 = 21.5. With room for improvement on Fever.

I said to trade for Brodin. He’s a 2.5. Trade Kempny, resign Dillon.

1+2+2.5+4.5+4.5+5 = 19.5

 

[g00n]

It's definitely cherrypicking to say you'll trade for 2 Orlovs at 50% retained and call them both 2D when most of your other posts/stats suggest he's the greatest D man in the league. A more consistent assessment of the lineup from that perspective would have both Orlov and Carlson as 1D, not both as 2D. Norris contenders are not 2Ds, they're elite.

I'm exaggerating a bit for effect, but you get the idea.

 

[VaCaps Fan]

I think we need the right coach and few tweaks to solve our problems.

 

[pman25]

Dillon doesn't seem worth the money. He's fine, i guess, but does he bring that much more to the table than a Siegenthaler? $4 million for a shot blocker that takes a lot of penalties and scores 15 points is not good in my opinion. Roll with Kempny/Fehervary/Siegenthaler/ and may mix in some AA.

 

[RandyHolt]

I feel like a cup winner needs 2 rocks on D. Solid. Thick. Eats a puck on the PK and doesn't have to pause to show pain or feign injury, to clear it. 1 right side and 1 left to handle which ever wing the opposition stud patrols.

Carlson is more offensive than defensive and is our top rock but is needed on the PP. Gudas didn't really pan out but is cut from the mold needed. Siggy is a few years away but hopefully absorbed a lot watching Orpik. Orlov and Jensen can shake and bake but aren't your shutdown end of game rock star types. Fever and a healthy Kemps are movers. Dillon is intriguing maybe a bit gangly but may be the best we have behind Carly. AA is gangly too heck most of our D can stand to add 10 pounds of muscle.

The D below is not cup worthy unless the rest of the league runs out of throwback rocks and the modern day D becomes Ice Capaders writhing on the ice after every shot block.

Throwing Darts
Dilly Carls | Siggy Jensen | Kemps/Fever ROCK

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

I feel like a cup winner needs 2 rocks on D. Solid. Thick. Eats a puck on the PK and doesn't have to pause to show pain or feign injury, to clear it. 1 right side and 1 left to handle which ever wing the opposition stud patrols.

Carlson is more offensive than defensive and is our top rock but is needed on the PP. Gudas didn't really pan out but is cut from the mold needed. Siggy is a few years away but hopefully absorbed a lot watching Orpik. Orlov and Jensen can shake and bake but aren't your shutdown end of game rock star types. Fever and a healthy Kemps are movers. Dillon is intriguing maybe a bit gangly but may be the best we have behind Carly. AA is gangly too heck most of our D can stand to add 10 pounds of muscle.

The D below is not cup worthy unless the rest of the league runs out of throwback rocks and the modern D day becomes Ice Capaders writhing on the ice after every shot block.

Throwing Darts
Dilly Carls | Siggy Jensen | Kemps/Fever ROCK

We do not qualify for playoffs with such terrible defense.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Again, your values are subjective. Carlson is absolutely a 1D. He’s probably going to win the Norris, or at worst be #2. Sure, we can talk about the Norris etc, and who should win it — but if you think there are 30 defensemen that NHL GM’s would take over Carlson, you are crazy. He may not be top 10 (could argue he is though), but he’s absolutely top 20 and at worst top 30. He’s a #1.

and if Kempny is a 4D, Dillon is as well. Could argue for Jensen. I think as fairer depiction is all 3 are 4.5’s, by your metric.

1+2+4.5+4.5+4.5+5 = 21.5. With room for improvement on Fever.

I said to trade for Brodin. He’s a 2.5. Trade Kempny, resign Dillon.

1+2+2.5+4.5+4.5+5 = 19.5

You consider Carlson 1D or 2D. It doesn't change anything. He was with Caps in 2018, he will be with us the next season. The goal is to do as good as we did in 2018: X=18 if you consider Carlson be 2D or X=17 is you consider Carlson be 1D. It change nothing for other players.

Dillon, Jensen and Kempny are close in value. I personally consider Kempny higher than the other two. He is a SC champion. I explained multiple times why Kemply has more value.

X=21.5 is terrible. You improve it to X=19.5 it still does not pass the first round of playoffs. We have to do much better.

You say resign Dillon. but at what price? This is the question.

 

[Langway]

[URL=https://www.tsn.ca/trade-bait-winnipeg-jets-sniper-patrik-laine-on-the-board-1.1517697]Adam Larsson at 15 on TSN's trade bait board[/URL]. They're not getting Taylor Hall back but that's a player whose salary would slot in pretty well for the Caps. Only one year left but that's roughly what they need at RD the next few years.

 

[twabby]

Adam Larsson at 15 on TSN's trade bait board. They're not getting Taylor Hall back but that's a player whose salary would slot in pretty well for the Caps. Only one year left but that's roughly what they need at RD the next few years.

Don't really like this idea at all. They already have Nick Jensen who fills a similar role for cheaper, and he's probably just as good if not a bit better. If they are going to target a RD I think they need to target one with some sort of offensive upside.

 

[pman25]

Vince Dunn from St. Louis worth a look. RFA with no arbitration rights, but that might be advantage for St Louis to keep him. Left handed offensive D. Jake Allen will probably be moved too, one year left on his deal. Getting a good goaltender for a year on a reasonable contract would make me feel better, considering Samsonov's status.

 

[crab]

What is the mathematical formula for the Stanley Cup?

Step 1: Collect underpants
Step 2: ?
Step 3: Win Stanley Cup