Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2020 Offseason Pt. 1

[francaisvolantsparis]

Orlov-???
Fehervary-Carlson
Kempny-Jensen

This 6 will rock.

??? need to be a 1D NHL caliber guy, not a 4/5D guy like Dillon. We have ~$4M..$5M for this ??? guy.

 

[DCRedhawk21]

Orlov-???
Fehervary-Carlson
Kempny-Jensen

This 6 will rock.

??? need to be a 1D NHL caliber guy, not a 4/5D guy like Dillon. We have ~$4M..$5M for this ??? guy.

Where do you get a 1D caliber guy for $4M or $5M? I also don't buy that a coach will have Fehervary playing top-4 minutes with Carlson regularly (but I guess it could happen) and think Kempny will likely be gone to free up some space to chase an upgrade. I think it's more likely we get:

Orlov - Jensen
??? (if they don't bring Dillon back) - Carlson
Siegenthaler - Fehervary/other acquisition

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

From a very simplistic point of view. An NHL team has 1D, 2D, 3D and 4D players on its two top4 pairs. Then you have 5D, 6D and 7D in the mix for the third pair. Let's say, our defense is made of three well balanced pairs 1D-2D, 3D-4D, 5D-6D. X=1+2+3+4+5+6=21. X=21 is the median value for standard NHL defensemen core. To win a SC, we need an X<21. In 2018 Niskanen was 1D, Orlov was 2D, Carlson was 2D, Kempny was 4D, Orpik was 4D and Djoos was 5D. In 2018 our X was = 1+2+2+4+4+5=18<21. We had an OK defense to win a Cup. Today we have: Carlson = 2D, Orlov= 2D, Kempny=4D, Jensen=5D, Fehervary=5D, Dillon=5D, Siegenthaler = 7D.
If you go with the following D pairs:

Orlov-Jensen
Dillon-Carlson
Sieg-Fehervary

your X=2+5+5+2+7+5=26>>>21. This is a TERRIBLE defense not good enough for an NHL team. It has low value. It is terrible. We have to improuve it.

Let's say we can find a 2D to play with Orlov on the shutdown pair. In this case:

Orlov-2D
Fehervary-Carlson
Kempny-Jensen

gives X = 2+2+2+5+4+5=20<21. This defense is much better than the terrible previous one. But not as good as we had in 2018. The only way to have a better defensive core (and we should) is to find 1D and not 2D to play with Orlov and to somehow upgrade Jensen on the third line.

Orlov-1D
Kempny-Carlson
Fehervary-4D

X=1+2+2+4+4+5=18<21. As good as it was in the 2018 Cup run, There is NO place for Dillon or Jensen. Fehervary and Kempny are key pieces as they bring a lot of value at a very low price capwise.

I tried to make it as simple as possible.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

OEL has 7 years left at $8.25mm. That does not fit on this team or in their competitive window.

Would love to pry Dumba out of Minnesota, though. Slotting him behind Carlson and in front of Jensen would be great.

Always liked Dumba myself.....

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yeah I’m not sure how you can credit Reirden and say Trotz had nothing to do with Carlson, Niskanen, Kempny, when their defensive game fell off a cliff after Trotz left.

wow slightly oversimplified....

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

We could have a very good defensive core in actual Cup run. Let's say Gudas=4D. In this case pairs like:

Orlov-2D
Kempny-Carlson
Fehervary-Gudas

gives X=2+2+2+4+4+5=19<21.

But Carlson was hurt and we traded a 2nd round draft pick for a 5D guy Dillon, not a 2D guy. Plus Reirden was terrible to figure out the best D pairs and compositions. He tried to play Dillon on the shutdown pair. It was horrific.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

If Dillon acceptes a $1.5M-$2.5M per season term, he can be useful for us. But if he asks for more, it will hurt us too badly. He is 30y old. At best he is a 4D guy. We do not really need him, and we have same or better players for lower price.

 

[caps4cup]

If Dillon acceptes a $1.5M-$2.5M per season term, he can be useful for us. But if he asks for more, it will hurt us too badly. At best he is a 4D guy. We do not really need him, and we have same or better players for lower price.

Not saying we should resign Dillon. It depends on the price point. But he is a good defensive top 4 defensemen on a team that isn’t a mess defensively. He’s definitely a 3/4, but could easily play with Carlson. If he wants more than 4mil per year I’m not sure if it’s worth it, but he’s definitely worth more than 2mil/yr.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Not saying we should resign Dillon. It depends on the price point. But he is a good defensive top 4 defensemen on a team that isn’t a mess defensively. He’s definitely a 3/4, but could easily play with Carlson. If he wants more than 4mil per year I’m not sure if it’s worth it, but he’s definitely worth more than 2mil/yr.

We have planty of guys who will be as good as him with Carlson but for much less money.

 

[Corby78]

Not saying we should resign Dillon. It depends on the price point. But he is a good defensive top 4 defensemen on a team that isn’t a mess defensively. He’s definitely a 3/4, but could easily play with Carlson. If he wants more than 4mil per year I’m not sure if it’s worth it, but he’s definitely worth more than 2mil/yr.

I'm still on board with signing him. If we can get him around 4 I would do it. We are going to have some unproved goalies next year, and we need to have some stable guys on the blue line to help out. Yes puck moving/offensive minded guys are needed too, but we need both, and if we can shore up one side of that equation I'm good with it.

 

[illicit]

From a very simplistic point of view. An NHL team has 1D, 2D, 3D and 4D players on its two top4 pairs. Then you have 5D, 6D and 7D in the mix for the third pair. Let's say, our defense is made of three well balanced pairs 1D-2D, 3D-4D, 5D-6D. X=1+2+3+4+5+6=21. X=21 is the median value for standard NHL defensemen core. To win a SC, we need an X<21. In 2018 Niskanen was 1D, Orlov was 2D, Carlson was 2D, Kempny was 4D, Orpik was 4D and Djoos was 5D. In 2018 our X was = 1+2+2+4+4+5=18<21. We had an OK defense to win a Cup. Today we have: Carlson = 2D, Orlov= 2D, Kempny=4D, Jensen=5D, Fehervary=5D, Dillon=5D, Siegenthaler = 7D.
If you go with the following D pairs:

Orlov-Jensen
Dillon-Carlson
Sieg-Fehervary

your X=2+5+5+2+7+5=26>>>21. This is a TERRIBLE defense not good enough for an NHL team. It has low value. It is terrible. We have to improuve it.

Let's say we can find a 2D to play with Orlov on the shutdown pair. In this case:

Orlov-2D
Fehervary-Carlson
Kempny-Jensen

gives X = 2+2+2+5+4+5=20<21. This defense is much better than the terrible previous one. But not as good as we had in 2018. The only way to have a better defensive core (and we should) is to find 1D and not 2D to play with Orlov and to somehow upgrade Jensen on the third line.

Orlov-1D
Kempny-Carlson
Fehervary-4D

X=1+2+2+4+4+5=18<21. As good as it was in the 2018 Cup run, There is NO place for Dillon or Jensen. Fehervary and Kempny are key pieces as they bring a lot of value at a very low price capwise.

I tried to make it as simple as possible.

This is probably the craziest way I've ever seen someone assess a defense. Like DCRedHawk said, you're not gonna find a 1D for 4-5M. The Caps need a RHD to slot in behind Carlson so they can play Jensen on the third line. You don't need to do all these mental gymnastics and assignment of arbitrary number values to figure that out. Jensen was arguably our best D in the playoffs this year. Sure, he definitely got off to a slow start, but for that kinda money he's the best we're gonna get.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

This is probably the craziest way I've ever seen someone assess a defense. Like DCRedHawk said, you're not gonna find a 1D for 4-5M. The Caps need a RHD to slot in behind Carlson so they can play Jensen on the third line. You don't need to do all these mental gymnastics and assignment of arbitrary number values to figure that out. Jensen was arguably our best D in the playoffs this year. Sure, he definitely got off to a slow start, but for that kinda money he's the best we're gonna get.

As you seen some other methods and this one is the craziest, please, give an example of a simple and less crazy method to assess a defense. I am looking for one. What method do you use to evoluate contract value on a contender team? I am sure, your method is not 'we need six guys, three lefthanded, three righthanded and we are good'.

 

[HTFN]

As you seen some other methods and this one is the craziest, please, give an example of a simple and less crazy method to assess a defense. I am looking for one. What method do you use to evoluate contract value on a contender team?

Dude, it's batshit f***ing crazy to write all of that out when all you want to say is "we need one more high quality defenseman to create a mismatch on the second pairing.

You went nuts and worked backwards with a bunch of numbers that only explain what anybody who has been watching hockey for part of a season can figure out with their eyes.

 

[g00n]

A simpler way of looking at it: how many guys played at a level higher or lower than their position/contract values? This is already something analysts look at in various contexts.

To win a championship you almost always have to have a few guys playing well above their contract value or position in the depth chart.

 

[txpd]

A simpler way of looking at it: how many guys played at a level higher or lower than their position/contract values? This is already something analysts look at in various contexts.

To win a championship you almost always have to have a few guys playing well above their contract value or position in the depth chart.

Sprong

 

[illicit]

Sprong

Sprong should hopefully be one of those players. Alongside guys like CMM, Alexeyev and Fever over the next couple years.

 

[txpd]

Sprong should hopefully be one of those players. Alongside guys like CMM, Alexeyev and Fever over the next couple years.

This is why the Caps wont trade their first round pick anymore

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

If the 7D player contract value is $0.8M per year. For every step in the 1D-6D hierarchy you pay an additional $0.9M. In this case, standard 2D contract is around $5.3M, it close to what we see in the League. Defensive core composed of seven defensemen 1D-2D, 3D-4D, 5D-6D, 7D is worth $24.5M. You pay an additional $3.0M to your PP1 guy. Also, in general one of your defensemen has a League entry level contract. This brings you to a ~$24.0M budget for your defensemen. It is close to the actual League average. You pay $24M for six guys worth X=21 (see above).

This is correct for an average team. To be a contender team you have to pay the same money to better players (underpay them). Let's look at our players. 2D Carlson is worth $5.3M+$3.0M=$8.3M. He is underpaid for $0.3M. This is good for our team. 2D Orlov is worth $5.3M. He is underpaid for $0.2M This is also good. 4D Kempny is worth $3.5M. He is underpaid for $1.0M This is excellent, one should be crazy to trade him. 5D Fehervary is worth $2.6M. He is underpaid for $1.8M. Tremendous, one should be dead crazy to not bring him to the roster. 5D Jensen is worth $2.6M. He is underpaid with $0.1M. It is ok, but it can be better on a contender team. 7D Siegenthaler is worth $0.8M. It is exactly where he is. You don't want to see him on the ice in the playoffs to not handicap your overall value.

Let's look at what we have. 1D and 2D are extremely difficult to find, they are generally overpaid by non-contender teams. Carlson and Orlov are on slightly underpaid contracts. They won a Cup in their respective roles. They are in their prime years. They are locks. Kempny and Fehervary are largely underpaid. They are extremely valuable for a contender team looking to create an excess in quality on the roster. They are modern type defensemen. They are indisputably locks. Next. Our team need a 1D or one more 2D to have enough value for a long playoff run. Let's suppose we brought a player like this to the roster. We will discuss his contract later. This gives us a big part of the solution:

Orlov-New guy
Kempny-Carlson
Fehervay-???

-OR-

Orlov-New guy
Fehervary-Carlson
Kempny-???

-OR-

Orlov-New guy
???-Carlson
Kempny-Fehervary

So, we spent $16.4M for four guys plus $0.8M for the 7D (maybe Sieg). It gives us $6.8M for the New guy and the last ??? player. The target X value for the two players on a contender team should be X=5. (X=18 for six defensemen). This means, we have combined $6.8M for a 1D + 4D or 2D + 3D. The problem is that 1D are rare. It is not likely we are getting one for $6.0M or less. The best (only) scenario is to get a 2D guy on a slightly underpaid contract ~$5.2M and hope we can get a rental 3D/4D at the trade deadline. Now we are approaching our last question. What do we do before the trade deadline? We have $6.8M-$5.2M = $1.6M for the last ??? defenseman. We can play Sieg. Or we can try to get a 6RD offensively minded guy like Jerabek for that money. There is no place for Jensen or Dillon on the team as it is if you understand how it works to not doom your playoff chances with the wet dreams. The only way to keep ONE (not two) of the redundant defense only Jensen and Dillon is to find a largely underpaid 2D guy or slightly overpay all our defensive core in detriment or the forward lines. On million can be added here and one of Dillon or Jensen can stay. But we cannot pay Dillon more than $2.5M nor we should for a 5D guy. If you consider he is 4D and he replaces Kempny, it should be for the same money: $2.5M. End of the story.

Last but not least. If for some weird reason we want to repeat the last season's error and run the one trick pony 5D Jensen on the first line:

Orlov-Jensen
Dillon-Carlson
???-???

You have to find a 2D and 3D guys for the third line to have a chance at the playoffs. It brings you to the same problem. Only difference is that the value is oddly distributed between the pairs. Top4 like Dillon-Carlson Orlov-Jensen will NEVER pass the first round of playoffs.

 

[Calicaps]

If the 7D player contract value is $0.8M per year. For every step in the 1D-6D hierarchy you pay an additional $0.9M. In this case, standard 2D contract is around $5.3M, it close to what we see in the League. Defensive core composed of seven defensemen 1D-2D, 3D-4D, 5D-6D, 7D is worth $24.5M. You pay an additional $3.0M to your PP1 guy. Also, in general one of your defensemen has a League entry level contract. This brings you to a ~$24.0M budget for your defensemen. It is close to the actual League average. You pay $24M for six guys worth X=21 (see above).

This is correct for an average team. To be a contender team you have to pay the same money to better players (underpay them). Let's look at our players. 2D Carlson is worth $5.3M+$3.0M=$8.3M. He is underpaid for $0.3M. This is good for our team. 2D Orlov is worth $5.3M. He is underpaid for $0.2M This is also good. 4D Kempny is worth $3.5M. He is underpaid for $1.0M This is excellent, one should be crazy to trade him. 5D Fehervary is worth $2.6M. He is underpaid for $1.8M. Tremendous, one should be dead crazy to not bring him to the roster. 5D Jensen is worth $2.6M. He is underpaid with $0.1M. It is ok, but it can be better on a contender team. 7D Siegenthaler is worth $0.8M. It is exactly where he is. You don't want to see him on the ice in the playoffs to not handicap your overall value.

Let's look at what we have. 1D and 2D are extremely difficult to find, they are generally overpaid by non-contender teams. Carlson and Orlov are on slightly underpaid contracts. They won a Cup in their respective roles. They are in their prime years. They are locks. Kempny and Fehervary are largely underpaid. They are extremely valuable for a contender team looking to create an excess in quality on the roster. They are modern type defensemen. They are indisputably locks. Next. Our team need a 1D or one more 2D to have enough value for a long playoff run. Let's suppose we brought a player like this to the roster. We will discuss his contract later. This gives us a big part of the solution:

Orlov-New guy
Kempny-Carlson
Fehervay-???

-OR-

Orlov-New guy
Fehervary-Carlson
Kempny-???

-OR-

Orlov-New guy
???-Carlson
Kempny-Fehervary

So, we spent $16.4M for four guys plus $0.8M for the 7D (maybe Sieg). It gives us $6.8M for the New guy and the last ??? player. The target X value for the two players on a contender team should be X=5. (X=18 for six defensemen). This means, we have combined $6.8M for a 1D + 4D or 2D + 3D. The problem is that 1D are rare. It is not likely we are getting one for $6.0M or less. The best (only) scenario is to get a 2D guy on a slightly underpaid contract ~$5.2M and hope we can get a rental 3D/4D at the trade deadline. Now we are approaching our last question. What do we do before the trade deadline? We have $6.8M-$5.2M = $1.6M for the last ??? defenseman. We can play Sieg. Or we can try to get a 6RD offensively minded guy like Jerabek for that money. There is no place for Jensen or Dillon on the team as it is if you understand how it works to not doom your playoff chances with the wet dreams. The only way to keep ONE (not two) of the redundant defense only Jensen and Dillon is to find a largely underpaid 2D guy or slightly overpay all our defensive core in detriment or the forward lines. On million can be added here and one of Dillon or Jensen can stay. But we cannot pay Dillon more than $2.5M nor we should for a 5D guy. If you consider he is 4D and he replaces Kempny, it should be for the same money: $2.5M. End of the story.

Last but not least. If for some weird reason we want to repeat the last season's error and run the one trick pony 5D Jensen on the first line:

Orlov-Jensen
Dillon-Carlson
???-???

You have to find a 2D and 3D guys for the third line to have a chance at the playoffs. It brings you to the same problem. Only difference is that the value is oddly distributed between the pairs. Top4 like Dillon-Carlson Orlov-Jensen will NEVER pass the first round of playoffs.

Mother of God...

 

[txpd]

Hail Mary, full of grace...

 

[chilimac]

the only words that came to mind.. unabomber and manifesto.

 

[Ridley Simon]

From a very simplistic point of view. An NHL team has 1D, 2D, 3D and 4D players on its two top4 pairs. Then you have 5D, 6D and 7D in the mix for the third pair. Let's say, our defense is made of three well balanced pairs 1D-2D, 3D-4D, 5D-6D. X=1+2+3+4+5+6=21. X=21 is the median value for standard NHL defensemen core. To win a SC, we need an X<21. In 2018 Niskanen was 1D, Orlov was 2D, Carlson was 2D, Kempny was 4D, Orpik was 4D and Djoos was 5D. In 2018 our X was = 1+2+2+4+4+5=18<21. We had an OK defense to win a Cup. Today we have: Carlson = 2D, Orlov= 2D, Kempny=4D, Jensen=5D, Fehervary=5D, Dillon=5D, Siegenthaler = 7D.
If you go with the following D pairs:

Orlov-Jensen
Dillon-Carlson
Sieg-Fehervary

your X=2+5+5+2+7+5=26>>>21. This is a TERRIBLE defense not good enough for an NHL team. It has low value. It is terrible. We have to improuve it.

Let's say we can find a 2D to play with Orlov on the shutdown pair. In this case:

Orlov-2D
Fehervary-Carlson
Kempny-Jensen

gives X = 2+2+2+5+4+5=20<21. This defense is much better than the terrible previous one. But not as good as we had in 2018. The only way to have a better defensive core (and we should) is to find 1D and not 2D to play with Orlov and to somehow upgrade Jensen on the third line.

Orlov-1D
Kempny-Carlson
Fehervary-4D

X=1+2+2+4+4+5=18<21. As good as it was in the 2018 Cup run, There is NO place for Dillon or Jensen. Fehervary and Kempny are key pieces as they bring a lot of value at a very low price capwise.

I tried to make it as simple as possible.

Yeah but your own number are wrong. The top 6D (by your estimates, which are highly debatable) = 23. Not 26. You counted Siegs and not Kempny.

Carlson and Dillon are 1 and 4. So it’s really 21 out of 21.

cone on man. Your metrics are based on your bias. So they are imminently fallible (and most would consider flat out wrong)

try again please

 

[RVACapsFan]

Sign Dylan DeMelo, 4x3.5MM or something.

Siegenthaler-Carlson
Orlov-DeMelo
Fehervary-Jensen

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Yeah but your own number are wrong. The top 6D (by your estimates, which are highly debatable) = 23. Not 26. You counted Siegs and not Kempny.

Carlson and Dillon are 1 and 4. So it’s really 21 out of 21.

cone on man. Your metrics are based on your bias. So they are imminently fallible (and most would consider flat out wrong)

try again please

2+5+5+2+7+5=26 It is not 23. You are wrong.
Dillon is a 5D. Not 4D. Here is why:

In last three regular seasons Dillon played only 26.59% of 5v5 time vs best opposing line with SJ. He was NOT a top4 defenseman on their team. And even the rare occasions he was defending vs best players he averaged 4.37 goals against. A terrible result. Sorry guys, your Messiah is an imposter. He is NOT a top4 D. He is NOT a shutdown defenseman. He is an excellent 5-6D who speaks a lot and can hit and nothing else special. He replaces preretirement Orpik on the third line. We wasted our 2nd round draft pick. Time to move on.

Player Team TOI % vs best GA/60 vs best
Justin Braun S.J 55.46 3.83622062
Marc-Edouard Vlasic S.J 54.8 3.07683653
Erik Karlsson S.J 46.91 2.88044836
Brent Burns S.J 31.08 4.40103277
Brenden Dillon S.J 26.59 4.37428184
Radim Simek S.J 25.54 6.85430204

I consider Carlson as 2D and Pietrangelo 1D. The difference is not their offensive ability, but all the rest.

You consider Carlson 1D or 2D change nothing in my reasoning. Carlson was with the team in 2018 and would be next year. All what I do is comparing 2018 roster to the 2021 one.

You consider Dillon 4D or 5D change nothing in my reasoning. You can only give him $1.5M-$2.5M per year money anyways. Read my post.

 

[francaisvolantsparis]

Sign Dylan DeMelo, 4x3.5MM or something.

Siegenthaler-Carlson
Orlov-DeMelo
Fehervary-Jensen

X=7+2+2+5+5+5=26. We will not qualify for playoffs with such defense. It is to bad.