Confirmed with Link: Canucks sign F Jason Dickinson to 3-Year, $7.95M Deal ($2.65M AAV)

[Bojack Horvatman]

Not going to quote everyone as I'm on mobile

My point was that Beagle wasn't a fourth line plug. He played defensive game, great a faceoffs, he was behind a strong Capitals offensive team.

He was playing 12-14 minutes a night, PK, defensive role, he wasn't a 6 minute plug on the fourth line.

Beagle was signed to insulate Horvat, Gagner and Pettersson if he made it to the team. So the offensive guys can go play offense.

Had Pettersson not exploded the way he did, the signing would have been on a perfect timeline, IMO.

Injuries sucks, but no one could have predicted that. Beagle might have an extra year, but that was the cost to sign an UFA.

I still stand by what I said, Benning knew what he was doing, but his plan got messed up because he didn't anticipate the growth and development of multiple Calder level rookies, and Hoglander too.

This Dickinson signing, where Benning wanted term and the agent side didn't, kept this negotiation going longer.
We can judge this signing later, again, like most HF Canucks who judge things as if they can time travel.
But at this moment of signing, the cap hit is less than an average player ($81.5m ÷ 25? Players = $3.26m) and we still have people complain that he was overpaid by $0.5m ???

This was a great RFA signing. Someone who has playoff experience with the Stars, plays a defensive role, and is age aligned with our core.

I had no problems with Beagle as a player here other than his contract. I thought he was somewhat redundant here with Sutter. Giving 4 years to a 33 yo 4th line center isn't a good idea, but if he was the only overpaid player though there would of been no problem. But he wasn't.

This whole Pettersson part is completely wrong though, and definitely not why we had cap issues. Like said above, he was set records in Sweden. Putting up 60-82 points by the 3rd year of his ELC is inline of what you expect of a player of his caliber. Scheifele, Barkov, Marner, Barzal, Nylander, Ehlers, Pastrnak, Laine, Aho and Draisaitl did this before the Beagle signing just off the top of my head, and not naming first overall picks. Some of them signed before the Beagle deal was signed from 8.4% of the cap to 11.3% of the cap. Which is exactly in the range that he will probably sign in.

On to Dickinson. Compared to other contracts that other posters have laid out, he is approximately 0.5m overpaid. Although he is at an age where it is unlikely he will regress, and actually has a chance to be worth more.

I like him as a target though, and would of traded a 3rd for him. My only worries are that Dallas was an excellent defensive team, and if he will be as effective here. Regardless, he is an improvement to our bottom 6.

 

[JAK]

This whole Pettersson part is completely wrong though,

Pettersson weighted maybe 175 with equipment on. His body is not physical mature yet and that simply was a question mark before his training camp.

That was definitely one of my concerns going into the season.

I still don't know why people think $2.65 is overpayment. It's below an average cap hit if we had 25 full time roster players.

It is understandable that it is tough to adjust contract values as the the cap have increased from $50m to $80m in such a relatively short era.

But IMHO, his contract is more than fine even considering his below 50% face off%. If he can improve with the guidance of Horvat, Miller and Sutter, it would help.

 

[rypper]

How much time did he spend as a winger vs center on Dallas?

It used to be easier to find that information on leftwinglock, broken down by percentage etc. Now it just lists the 3 most common lines he played on. Dobber sports has the percentages.

Benn - Dickinson - Gurianov 17.1%
Comeau - Cogliano - Dickinson 13.1%
Robertson - Pavelski - Dickinson 6.0%

Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

 

[Wo Yorfat]

How much time did he spend as a winger vs center on Dallas?

I read some Dallas GDTs because I was also curious, I only saw him referenced at C.

 

[Hit the post]

I read some Dallas GDTs because I was also curious, I only saw him referenced at C.

Yeah I only asked as his body of work doesn't seem that extensive & it was sort of in reply the person who couldn't understand why anyone would have any possible misgivings about Green using him at center. Well, there's your answer. A guy with only a few NHL seasons under his belt, playing a position that he didn't have that role full-time. For example, Bo Horvat, has significantly more experience in that role & responsibility (and is better in the faceoff circle).

Hopefully he works out (seeing as he's signed for three years).

 

[Zippgunn]

I'm just baffled this guy would do this deal before the important ones. This is ok but he just doesn't get it this Jimbo.

Right because Jimbo can pick when the big stars sign their contracts without any input from them or their agents. Methinks it is you who doesn't "get it".

 

[Killer Orcas]

Right because Jimbo can pick when the big stars sign their contracts without any input from them or their agents. Methinks it is you who doesn't "get it". ..

Well, he could actually wait to sign the supporting cast. Mind you I didn't realize there was an arb date as someone mentioned already. However, going along the same line what was the point of signing Pearson to the extension before the off-season? Especially considering the expansion draft. I'm not a hater no need to get defensive if you're for Benning I just don't think he thinks things through as he's shown.

 

[Vector]

I'm really really really struggling to have any sort of opinion about this signing. I don't recall ever watching him play. Numbers indicate he's a perfectly fine no-offense third line winger and, probably, a fine third line centre. Number seems high for a guy that's never played on the team before. Buying out a UFA year is good when the player is a high performer but Dickinson has just sort of existed.

 

[canuckking1]

If he sticks at 3C the contract is fine with the potential to be good.

 

[F A N]

Well, he could actually wait to sign the supporting cast. Mind you I didn't realize there was an arb date as someone mentioned already. However, going along the same line what was the point of signing Pearson to the extension before the off-season? Especially considering the expansion draft. I'm not a hater no need to get defensive if you're for Benning I just don't think he thinks things through as he's shown.

Negotiations with star players can be difficult. Certainly, the Canucks haven't been the only team that "signed the supporting cast" first. In recent years, teams and players have waited for a comparable to sign. In 2019, Marner signed in early September. That led to Rantanen, Tkachuk, Barzal, and Point signing afterwards.

Pearson was signed before the trade deadline. Either you re-sign him or you trade him is common strategy.

 

[MS]

It's amazing how many people are fine with such an obviously poor contract.

The Blueger and Hartman contracts should have set this player solidly in the $1.8 - $2.0 million range.

Yet another overpayment of a bottom-6 player. It's not as bad as garbage like the Beagle/Roussel contracts, but it's not good.

 

[Johnny Canucker]

yea but youd also get giveaways galore and horrible possession/defense compared to dickinson.
theres a reason petan cant stick in the nhl, and why highmore has been a 4th liner/ahl callup

Ummm who exactly do you think Dickenson is? lol.

 

[Johnny Canucker]

Your post seems to be predicated on the idea that Dickinson is no more valuable than Petan or Highmore. Do you actually believe this to be true?

Not “no more valuable” but not 4x the price and 3x the term more valuable.

 

[F A N]

It's amazing how many people are fine with such an obviously poor contract.

Why are you amazed? You were literally debating people who were fine with this AAV since the guy was acquired.

 

[MS]

Why are you amazed? You were literally debating people who were fine with this AAV since the guy was acquired.

There are certain usual suspects who would have been defending this if we'd paid him $3.5 million. Those were generally the people I was debating at the time of acquisition and I'm not surprised by that. You were not one of those people and we've been in more agreement on this player than we usually are on anything.

I'm surprised that so many people who should know better are rolling over on this as 'fine' when it's clearly a 25-30% overpayment relative to recent comparables.

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

There are certain usual suspects who would have been defending this if we'd paid him $3.5 million. Those were generally the people I was debating at the time of acquisition and I'm not surprised by that. You were not one of those people and we've been in more agreement on this player than we usually are on anything.

I'm surprised that so many people who should know better are rolling over on this as 'fine' when it's clearly a 25-30% overpayment relative to recent comparables.

For me, it's not so much being 'fine' with it, as just accepting that this was more or less going to be the outcome. $2.0-$2.2 was the dream, but I wasn't expecting this contract to be Benning Tax exempt.

 

[JAK]

NHL Stats

Weirdly, Dickinson's neutral zone FO% is above 50%.

 

[alternate]

It's amazing how many people are fine with such an obviously poor contract.

The Blueger and Hartman contracts should have set this player solidly in the $1.8 - $2.0 million range.

Yet another overpayment of a bottom-6 player. It's not as bad as garbage like the Beagle/Roussel contracts, but it's not good.

You've laid out your comparables, but there just seems to be something missing. All the predictions had Dickinson coming in around where he did. And this includes before he was a Canuck, so it's not just because Benning.

I dunno, the comparables you and Melvin laid out make sense, but when the contract comes in basically as expected, and most non Canuck fans (and especially Dallas fans) feel it is a fair deal, there seems to be something your comparables aren't catching.

 

[MS]

For me, it's not so much being 'fine' with it, as just accepting that this was more or less going to be the outcome. $2.0-$2.2 was the dream, but I wasn't expecting this contract to be Benning Tax exempt.

We know it's Benning so we know it's bad but it's not Maximum Benning Bad so it's actually OK is such a depressing state of apathy I can't even ...

 

[JAK]

There are certain usual suspects who would have been defending this if we'd paid him $3.5 million. Those were generally the people I was debating at the time of acquisition and I'm not surprised by that. You were not one of those people and we've been in more agreement on this player than we usually are on anything.

I'm surprised that so many people who should know better are rolling over on this as 'fine' when it's clearly a 25-30% overpayment relative to recent comparables.

I think this is the right cap hit considering that over the next few seasons, the escrow would be eating into the salary hugely for the players.

In a regular year without COVID, maybe you could get a $250k-$350k lowered. But I just don't see how anyone can be angry at this contract at all.

If it was closer to $3m I would have an issue with it.

Heck, I wish Benning dangled a 10 team NTC to him to get the AAV to lower.

 

[JAK]

You've laid out your comparables, but there just seems to be something missing. All the predictions had Dickinson coming in around where he did. And this includes before he was a Canuck, so it's not just because Benning.

I dunno, the comparables you and Melvin laid out make sense, but when the contract comes in basically as expected, and most non Canuck fans (and especially Dallas fans) feel it is a fair deal, there seems to be something your comparables aren't catching.

Some people just want to watch the world burn.

 

[MS]

You've laid out your comparables, but there just seems to be something missing. All the predictions had Dickinson coming in around where he did. And this includes before he was a Canuck, so it's not just because Benning.

I dunno, the comparables you and Melvin laid out make sense, but when the contract comes in basically as expected, and most non Canuck fans (and especially Dallas fans) feel it is a fair deal, there seems to be something your comparables aren't catching.

1) Before any comparables were presented most of our fans immediately went to '$2.5 seems fair' which is probably where Dallas fans were at. I don't know that 'what fans think' is a great barometer.

2) Continuing on from that, I think people weren't factoring in that he had two remaining RFA years and were calculating his deal at pure UFA prices.

3) The Twitter projections of his contract were done by the same people doing the same calculations that came out with him being a defensive superstar, so not surprising that people overrating his effectiveness were also overrating his value.

 

[MS]

I think this is the right cap hit considering that over the next few seasons, the escrow would be eating into the salary hugely for the players.

In a regular year without COVID, maybe you could get a $250k-$350k lowered. But I just don't see how anyone can be angry at this contract at all.

If it was closer to $3m I would have an issue with it.

Heck, I wish Benning dangled a 10 team NTC to him to get the AAV to lower.

Ryan Hartman is basically the same player, just signed for $1.7.

Teddy Blueger is a substantially better player, just signed for $2.2.

 

[F A N]

There are certain usual suspects who would have been defending this if we'd paid him $3.5 million. Those were generally the people I was debating at the time of acquisition and I'm not surprised by that. You were not one of those people and we've been in more agreement on this player than we usually are on anything.

I'm surprised that so many people who should know better are rolling over on this as 'fine' when it's clearly a 25-30% overpayment relative to recent comparables.

Yes I didn't disagree with you on the value you placed on Dickinson. I do acknowledge the fact that Dickinson signed for where many expected him to sign. So while I totally see your point and agree with the comparables you put forth, I also acknowledge the fact that the other two may have signed bad contracts.

If you go over to the Pens and Wild boards, many posters were expecting Dickinson like contracts for the two players they mentioned. So yes, it would have been nice if the team squeezed Dickinson more in negotiations, but it's not terrible simply because other players signed bad contracts. Hartman's contract, in particular, was stupid. He could have just taken his QO or went to arbitration and went to UFA but he didn't. Instead he took a pay cut. But hey good for him. He has bounced around and obviously wanted to stay (protection from the expansion draft was likely part of the deal). The same thing with Blueger. He should have went to arbitration and bet on himself given his age.

 

[alternate]

1) Before any comparables were presented most of our fans immediately went to '$2.5 seems fair' which is probably where Dallas fans were at. I don't know that 'what fans think' is a great barometer.

2) Continuing on from that, I think people weren't factoring in that he had two remaining RFA years and were calculating his deal at pure UFA prices.

3) The Twitter projections of his contract were done by the same people doing the same calculations that came out with him being a defensive superstar, so not surprising that people overrating his effectiveness were also overrating his value.

Yeah, I don't know. Just seems the value is what was predicted, so don't really see how there can be too much Benning bashing over the deal.

In either case, this is likely either a two or three year deal in the $2.5 to $2.8 million range.

https://www-defendingbigd-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.defendingbigd.com/platform/amp/2021/6/24/22547577/analysis-dallas-stars-2021-2022-salary-cap-trade-free-agency-heiskanen-dickinson-oleksiak?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw==#aoh=16291384103298&referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://www.defendingbigd.com/2021/6/24/22547577/analysis-dallas-stars-2021-2022-salary-cap-trade-free-agency-heiskanen-dickinson-oleksiak

Contract projections from Evolving Hockey predict a three-year deal for Dickinson worth approximately $2.8 million per year.

https://www-vancouverisawesome-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.vancouverisawesome.com/amp/canucks-hockey/canucks-trade-for-centre-jason-dickinson-minutes-before-expansion-draft-roster-freeze-3964654?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw==#aoh=16291384103298&referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/canucks-hockey/canucks-trade-for-centre-jason-dickinson-minutes-before-expansion-draft-roster-freeze-3964654

A couple examples to show what I mean. Not sure where evolving hockey gets their predictions from, but again, this deal is in line with ehatbwas expected.

(Excuse the monster links, on my phone)