Confirmed with Link: Canucks sign F Jason Dickinson to 3-Year, $7.95M Deal ($2.65M AAV)

[JAK]

Ryan Hartman is basically the same player, just signed for $1.7.

Teddy Blueger is a substantially better player, just signed for $2.2.

Dickinson leads both players you compared in hits, blocked shots, and take aways.
Fenwick and Corsi in advanced stats.
In last year.

Compare Players - Frozen Tools

So, not sure where you get the substantially better player comment from.

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

We know it's Benning so we know it's bad but it's not Maximum Benning Bad so it's actually OK is such a depressing state of apathy I can't even ...

After 8 years, is it that surprising, though?

I don't think this contract is a backbreaker, given that we have (presumably) Podkolzin on an ELC, Sutter on a cheaper deal, plus Motte and MacEwen occupying space in the bottom six.

The real challenge (for Benning) is going to be finding replacement players or signing the aforementioned to similar deals. All while hoping Dickinson is going to project into being the 3C he wants him to be.

On an off note, what are your thoughts on Evolving Wild? They had Dickinson projected for ~$2.85 IIRC.

 

[JAK]

Yes I didn't disagree with you on the value you placed on Dickinson. I do acknowledge the fact that Dickinson signed for where many expected him to sign. So while I totally see your point and agree with the comparables you put forth, I also acknowledge the fact that the other two may have signed bad contracts.

If you go over to the Pens and Wild boards, many posters were expecting Dickinson like contracts for the two players they mentioned. So yes, it would have been nice if the team squeezed Dickinson more in negotiations, but it's not terrible simply because other players signed bad contracts. Hartman's contract, in particular, was stupid. He could have just taken his QO or went to arbitration and went to UFA but he didn't. Instead he took a pay cut. But hey good for him. He has bounced around and obviously wanted to stay (protection from the expansion draft was likely part of the deal). The same thing with Blueger. He should have went to arbitration and bet on himself given his age.

And I would probably argue that it could be their agent's fault, but I don't want to spend time to find out who their agents are.

But. Canadian tax for sure too may have contributed a little to it.

 

[logan5]

It's amazing how many people are fine with such an obviously poor contract.

The Blueger and Hartman contracts should have set this player solidly in the $1.8 - $2.0 million range.

Yet another overpayment of a bottom-6 player. It's not as bad as garbage like the Beagle/Roussel contracts, but it's not good.

For myself, and probly most of us, having not seen a lot of Dickenson or the comparables you listed, it is very difficult to gauge a players worth, especially difficult when you are trying to discern the difference between a 2.65 million dollar player and a 2 million dollar player, so most of us have to rely on outside sources, ie, media, Dallas fans etc.

I don't know how much you've watched the players mentioned here, but my guess is you have not seen these players enough to discern the difference either, and besides that almost all of your judgements on things Canuck related is very negative - to the point that it looks like you have an obvious bias.

The consensus is that the contract is about right, so it's probly a fair payment.

 

[Melvin]

1) Before any comparables were presented most of our fans immediately went to '$2.5 seems fair' which is probably where Dallas fans were at. I don't know that 'what fans think' is a great barometer.

2) Continuing on from that, I think people weren't factoring in that he had two remaining RFA years and were calculating his deal at pure UFA prices.

3) The Twitter projections of his contract were done by the same people doing the same calculations that came out with him being a defensive superstar, so not surprising that people overrating his effectiveness were also overrating his value.

I was talking about this in another thread. Fans pull numbers out of their asses based on "feel" which is usually biased by UFA prices, and then they group-think themselves into thinking the number is reasonable because everyone else says it is, then they are "pleased" when the number comes in at or under that number, which it almost always is because RFA < UFA. You would be hard pressed to find a single thread in the history of this board where the consensus of an RFA signing was that it was poor.

 

[Vector]

I just can't bring myself to care about Jason Dickinson nor what Canucks management does anymore. They've wasted enough of my time and emotional investment.

 

[JAK]

I was talking about this in another thread. Fans pull numbers out of their asses based on "feel" which is usually biased by UFA prices, and then they group-think themselves into thinking the number is reasonable because everyone else says it is, then they are "pleased" when the number comes in at or under that number, which it almost always is because RFA < UFA. You would be hard pressed to find a single thread in the history of this board where the consensus of an RFA signing was that it was poor.

Everyone is wrong, only you are right.

Okay.

 

[MS]

Dickinson leads both players you compared in hits, blocked shots, and take aways.
Fenwick and Corsi in advanced stats.
In last year.

Compare Players - Frozen Tools

So, not sure where you get the substantially better player comment from.

"I don't understand how to use advanced stats"

Blake Comeau (playing for the same team as Dickinson) absolutely dominates Brock Boeser in all 5 categories you list last season. Is Blake Comeau a better hockey player than Brock Boeser?

Teddy Blueger is a fantastic hockey player who actually plays C most of the time, unlike Dickinson.

 

[Melvin]

I just can't bring myself to care about Jason Dickinson nor what Canucks management does anymore. They've wasted enough of my time and emotional investment.

I mean, yeah. 27 year old Dickinson @ 2.65M is obviously an improvement over 34 year old Beagle @ 3M. So it's easy to see why people are excited.

 

[MS]

I was talking about this in another thread. Fans pull numbers out of their asses based on "feel" which is usually biased by UFA prices, and then they group-think themselves into thinking the number is reasonable because everyone else says it is, then they are "pleased" when the number comes in at or under that number, which it almost always is because RFA < UFA. You would be hard pressed to find a single thread in the history of this board where the consensus of an RFA signing was that it was poor.

Absolutely.

RFA contracts are basically the NHL GM equivalent of putting your pants on in the morning. They're hard to screw up.

And even when you do screw it up and overpay by 30%, that number still looks reasonable compared to big UFA screw-ups.

Dickinson is better than Beagle and costs less? SOUNDS GOOD TO ME. Ugh.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

I mean, yeah. 27 year old Dickinson @ 2.65M is obviously an improvement over 34 year old Beagle @ 3M. So it's easy to see why people are excited.

He just turned 26 last month...why embellish that?

 

[JAK]

I just can't bring myself to care about Jason Dickinson nor what Canucks management does anymore. They've wasted enough of my time and emotional investment.

Then why are you spending time in a Dickinson thread on a Canucks forum?

Seriously, are you purposely spending your time just to complain???

"I don't understand how to use advanced stats"

Blake Comeau (playing for the same team as Dickinson) absolutely dominates Brock Boeser in all 5 categories you list last season. Is Blake Comeau a better hockey player than Brock Boeser?

Teddy Blueger is a fantastic hockey player who actually plays C most of the time, unlike Dickinson.

Yes. You really don't. Comeau is deployed differently compared to Boeser as their roles are different. When comparing three similar players, on their defensive contributions, hits, blocked shots, take aways, are pretty solid stats to look at, and the advanced stats would also say similar stories as they, again, play similar roles.

I mean, yeah. 27 year old Dickinson @ 2.65M is obviously an improvement over 34 year old Beagle @ 3M. So it's easy to see why people are excited.

Can't you just be happy about something?

 

[bandwagonesque]

1) Before any comparables were presented most of our fans immediately went to '$2.5 seems fair' which is probably where Dallas fans were at. I don't know that 'what fans think' is a great barometer.

Various contract predictions around that value, including the Stars' own internal valuation, were made public immediately after the trade. You seem to be suggesting that fans paying attention to the team and the trade simultaneously did not read or pay attention to these predictions, which doesn't make any sense.

2) Continuing on from that, I think people weren't factoring in that he had two remaining RFA years and were calculating his deal at pure UFA prices.

Pretty much every article about the trade mentions that he's an RFA and explicitly discusses his value in this context. I don't think anyone valued him as a UFA, I never saw this happen, and I will be surprised if you can point to any conversation where this seems to be the case or where this misconception is discussed or corrected.

 

[MS]

Yes. You really don't. Comeau is deployed differently compared to Boeser as their roles are different. When comparing three similar players, on their defensive contributions, hits, blocked shots, take aways, are pretty solid stats to look at, and the advanced stats would also say similar stories as they, again, play similar roles.

The role doesn't matter.

If these are stats that mean you're a good player, then Comeau must be a better player in the way you used them.

Hits/blocks/takeaways are absolute garbage stats that mean nothing about how actually effective a player is.

Dallas' system clearly inflates the advanced stats of players inside of it, as we see when old average journeymen like Comeau and Cogliano come up as Corsi superstars.

Also, those players didn't play the same roles. Blueger is actually a C who actually played C. Dickinson played mostly wing last year.

 

[DonnyNucker]

Harman Dayal was just on the radio and he is surprised with the contract. Said market was $2.8M -$2.9MM based on the fact they bought two UFA years

 

[strattonius]

Harman Dayal was just on the radio and he is surprised with the contract. Said market was $2.8M -$2.9MM based on the fact they bought two UFA years

Nah dude. Melvin told me I'm just a sheep in group think purgatory. We are all duped in to believing this is a fair deal.

 

[DonnyNucker]

Nah dude. Melvin told me I'm just a sheep in group think purgatory. We are all duped in to believing this is a fair deal.

There is no way he should earn more than Gaunce or Biega. This is criminal

 

[JAK]

He just turned 26 last month...why embellish that?

That's because it's his MO, to make numbers suit his argument

 

[m9]

Harman Dayal was just on the radio and he is surprised with the contract. Said market was $2.8M -$2.9MM based on the fact they bought two UFA years

Isn't it only one UFA year?

 

[MS]

Harman Dayal was just on the radio and he is surprised with the contract. Said market was $2.8M -$2.9MM based on the fact they bought two UFA years

They didn't buy 2 UFA years. They bought 1.

Dickinson is born on July 4 1995, which is 4 days too late to qualify as an UFA in 2022.

Note Dominik Kubalik (born August 1995) is listed as a RFA on expiration of his deal next summer for the same reason :

Dominik Kubalik Contract, Cap Hit, Salary and Stats - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[DonnyNucker]

Isn't it only one UFA year?

I have no idea/ just listened to him on the radio. If Harman is wrong he should be embarrassed

 

[JAK]

The role doesn't matter.

If these are stats that mean you're a good player, then Comeau must be a better player in the way you used them.

Hits/blocks/takeaways are absolute garbage stats that mean nothing about how actually effective a player is.

Dallas' system clearly inflates the advanced stats of players inside of it, as we see when old average journeymen like Comeau and Cogliano come up as Corsi superstars.

Also, those players didn't play the same roles. Blueger is actually a C who actually played C. Dickinson played mostly wing last year.

Roles absolutely matters because it dictates who your opponents are, the quality of competition matters.

If you are #1D in Calgary and Edmonton during Sedins prime years, your stats stunk in possessions, but it wasn't exactly your fault.

If hits, blocks, take aways are garbage stats, then what games are you actually watching? I mean, these are all essential stats in all major physical sports, football, soccer, basketball, rugby....

And playing C vs Wing doesn't differ as much as long as they are in the defensive role.... Most teams employ tactics that doesn't differ between C or W. The C just means the player is taking the faceoff.

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

lol

 

[F A N]

I'm surprised nobody mentioned that this deal set a bad precedence for Motte's next contract should the Canucks want to extend him.

 

[Canucker]

Arguing over a 4th line center (yes, he's a 4th line center) in August...must be the dog days of summer in Vancouver. lol

For me, it's about $500k-$700k too much...but this is just Benning's MO, he's a soft negotiator...there is nothing in Dickinson's history that would lead one to believe he's a burgeoning 3rd line center...he's a quality 4th line center who will likely be thrust into a 3rd line role, and when he doesn't put up the offensive numbers he'll likely be one of the new whipping boys in town....and I like the guy, but as a 3rd line center I think he'll be underwhelming. No idea why people think this was a "tidy piece of business", it was a soft signing where Benning gave up what was probably a negotiating advantage and gave in to the agent/player to make him feel welcome right off the bat instead of going to arbitration where the team probably would have come away with a better deal...I could see doing that for a top player, not a 4th line depth player....typical Benning.