Canucks & NHL News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | Summer Doldrums

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

Getting something of value for him, sure. Make the trade. Let him walk? I think that'd be terrible asset mgmt.

No, overpaying a pure complimentary piece on the strength of numbers inflated by riding shotgun with a superstar center is terrible asset management.

 

[Josepho]

whoops

 

[credulous]

hoglander is everything people accused kuzmenko of except he isn't good enough to help the power play. i dunno why anyone wants him back at any price

 

[arttk]

hoglander is everything people accused kuzmenko of except he isn't good enough to help the power play. i dunno why anyone wants him back at any price

pretty sure nobody is arguing that

 

[krutovsdonut]

i think people projecting what to do with players after this coming season should go look at their calls from this time last year on stuff like that and weep or laugh as the case may be.

i have enough trouble projecting the starting lineup for game 1.

 

[credulous]

pretty sure nobody is arguing that

i meant he's not even really worth his qualifying offer imo. not that people want to give him 5m

 

[Bleach Clean]

i think people projecting what to do with players after this coming season should go look at their calls from this time last year on stuff like that and weep or laugh as the case may be.

i have enough trouble projecting the starting lineup for game 1.

So don't project at all?

We can only make projections based upon the information we have at the time. Last year, they looked like a lower end bubble team on paper. They went out and maxed out their potential and were lucky with injuries. They finished above expectations. But that doesn't mean the expectation was erroneous.

A lot had to go right for them to hit, and it did.

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

i meant he's not even really worth his qualifying offer imo. not that people want to give him 5m

Nobody is saying that, they're saying he isn't worth his potential arbitration award, which is what a qualifying offer would commit you to.

 

[vancityluongo]

hoglander at ~$2m short term is fine, but when better versions of the same player, like heinen, are already on the roster and/or clearly interested in playing here, there's no reason to give him any sort of premium to keep him. i'd keep hog at blueger money, even while agreeing with the comment that his stats will likely crater this season. not surprised though that some of the same people that were ready to give zadorov a blank cheque are losing their minds the opposite way over the same sample of poor play from hog.

boeser is a tough one. ihe deserves a raise in terms of salary, and that's fine, but the term they give him could be scary. an ideal contract imo would be like, 8x3, but there's no reason for him to take that. between his health and inconsistency, anything more than 4 or 5 years and i think we're accepting a boat anchor that will need to be bought out at some point. huberdeau feels like an apt comparison.

 

[Vector]

 

[VanillaCoke]

I like Boeser at $7 mil per for 6 years... $6.5 per for 8.

Ain't gonna be a pay cut cmon now.

Boeser will be at JTM money plus or minus five hundred grand, either here or in Minnesota.

 

[krutovsdonut]

hoglander at ~$2m short term is fine, but when better versions of the same player, like heinen, are already on the roster and/or clearly interested in playing here, there's no reason to give him any sort of premium to keep him.

hoglander is not a guy i would gamble and extend now. we just can't afford any more dead cap or lost draft picks to get rid of bad gambles.

 

[Phrasing]

If Boeser isn’t extended, is he traded by the deadline?

 

[Hansen]

If Boeser isn’t extended, is he traded by the deadline?

I doubt it, he would be looked at as an “internal rental” or whatever coined phrase they use. Keep him for the playoff run and then he walks unless he takes a sweetheart deal.

 

[TruGr1t]

If Boeser isn’t extended, is he traded by the deadline?

If he won't take a hometown discount, with Allvin and Rutherford in charge, it wouldn't surprise me. They do need to recoup picks somewhere along the line here, and they could also try to grab a prospect close to the NHL if they trade him as a rental. Depends how DeBrusk works out, the rest of the off-season acquisitions, and if Joshua continues to trend up.

No way they extend him into his mid-30s at $7M+ AAV, imo.

 

[MS]

If Boeser isn’t extended, is he traded by the deadline?

Only if we're out of the playoff picture, which would be very surprising.

 

[Canucks LB]

Ain't gonna be a pay cut cmon now.

Boeser will be at JTM money plus or minus five hundred grand, either here or in Minnesota.

Especially considering he performed in the playoffs, so many people thought it wouldn’t happen, but it did, he proved himself

 

[Ernie]

Still ethan bear truthers out there !?

hahah wow ok.

If he is coming off the player assistance program and the Caps will eat 50% of his salary, would be a no-brainer to trade for him. He seemed to do well here.

As for Boeser, if he scores 40 goals next season, I have no problem paying $9m (he won't).

 

[Hammman]

i meant he's not even really worth his qualifying offer imo. not that people want to give him 5m

Ridiculous.

 

[Vector]

Ridiculous.

crediculous.

 

[Deeds26]

crediculous.

Fergalicious

 

[F A N]

If he won't take a hometown discount, with Allvin and Rutherford in charge, it wouldn't surprise me. They do need to recoup picks somewhere along the line here, and they could also try to grab a prospect close to the NHL if they trade him as a rental. Depends how DeBrusk works out, the rest of the off-season acquisitions, and if Joshua continues to trend up.

No way they extend him into his mid-30s at $7M+ AAV, imo.

If Boeser plays like he did last season and is scoring at a 30-40 goal pace, I don't see how they don't extend him. Debrusk is from the same draft and we gave Debrusk a 7 year deal with 3 years NMC then limited NTC. I get fans are scared of the past (and I belong in that camp and so is management right now), but 30+ goal scorers come at a price. If we don't pay it, someone else would. We'll then be searching for someone to score those 30+ goals (which we have been trying to do even now).

 

[beachcomber]

Only if we're out of the playoff picture, which would be very surprising.

This is actually one of the rare times in my 53 years of following this general fiasco of a franchise where I actually have a very good feeling about the upcoming season. I think they will be a very hard team to deal with and management will add again before the playoffs.

 

[biturbo19]

Probably walk on all 4 (or trade in Hoglander's case).

Also that Suter projection is horrific. His resume/profile hasn't changed since he signed his deal here and he'd be looking at a contract similar to Heinen.

Yeah. That projected Suter contract is laughable. It's clearly an analytics projection based on his scoring rates/underlying stats...rather than actually considering context and properly assessing what he is as a player.

The same reason he was available to us on a 2-year sub $2M "bargain deal" is the reason he'll be available to somebody for a relatively cheap "bargain" contract again after this one. Same reason Chicago walked away from him when faced with the prospect of paying him more, and let him wander off to Detroit...who also cut him loose.

He's a useful "utility player". That's it. His numbers aren't really a reflection of anything that he does particularly well. They're a reflection of the fact that he's versatile and just good enough to make himself an option for playing "3rd wheel" on a Top-6 line with much better players in the absence of actual Top-6 scorers.

As we've seen with him, and just saw again with the price for Heinen...teams don't pay these guys. They don't tend to give them term or dollars, and they're generally loathe to make any major commitment to guys that they fully view as temporary "filler".

I'm a bit confused, Hoglander scores 24 ES goals last season. Why exactly do you guys want to walk away from him at 2.5m? That's tied withgguys like Aho, Keller and Boeser.

I get he wasn't great in his first playoffs, but he plays a style that should thrive there and I don't put a lot of stock into a young player's first post season. We spend a lot of time talking about guys providing excess production for their contract, and even at 2.5m that seems like a very good deal.

The thing is...Hoggy's game isn't really built that well for the playoffs. It's built to be a little buzzsaw in the regular season, where he's only effective at all when he's running at absolute maximum intensity and effort at all times. But when the playoffs hit...he simply doesn't have another gear to get to. He's not big enough, fast enough, or skilled enough to elevate from there when the speed and physicality all ramp up and everyone else starts to join him up there at 110% effort.

Nobody is saying that, they're saying he isn't worth his potential arbitration award, which is what a qualifying offer would commit you to.

Technically though, once you set that process in motion with a guy like Hoglander by submitting his QO...you're on the hook for potential player elected salary arbitration. Where things can get super goofy with a player boasting Hoggy's potential stat line. It can put you in a really awkward spot where you're paying well north of what he's worth...but not meeting the "walk away" threshold. So you're stuck with him. At a price that could be something stupid like $4M+ if he somehow replicates his unsustainable goal-scoring again.


Hoglander is going to be a really tricky deal to figure out. I love the guy, he's a good player who is currently providing crazy value at $1.1M. But he's also an awkward "misfit" who doesn't play well with Top-6 players, but isn't suited to a checking role and doesn't contribute anything at all to STs either. He's also more of a fringe 15-20G guy. He's always going to shoot at a higher rate than most, simply because of the type of goals he scores. But that's still going to fluctuate and dip from the insane SH% bender he was on last year.


So what is a small, slowish, defensively mediocre, non-STs contributing ~15G - 30pt winger really worth going forward? He's an infectious pesty little buzzsaw when he's "on" so there's value added there. But it's tough to commit a lot of salary and term to a player like that. As much as he's a personal favourite of mine to watch, when he's going.


I think there's a very high likelihood that unless he opts to take a super team-friendly deal that makes sense, he ends up trade bait. Maybe even sooner, rather than later. He's just unfortunately in that sort of mushy part of the roster without a well-defined role, where you ideally want to be able to continue churning guys over and trying to bring in "homegrown" talent to replace him on cheap ELCs/starter contracts like the one he's on now, and Podz just got.

 

[LandfiII]

Yeah. That projected Suter contract is laughable. It's clearly an analytics projection based on his scoring rates/underlying stats...rather than actually considering context and properly assessing what he is as a player.

The same reason he was available to us on a 2-year sub $2M "bargain deal" is the reason he'll be available to somebody for a relatively cheap "bargain" contract again after this one. Same reason Chicago walked away from him when faced with the prospect of paying him more, and let him wander off to Detroit...who also cut him loose.

He's a useful "utility player". That's it. His numbers aren't really a reflection of anything that he does particularly well. They're a reflection of the fact that he's versatile and just good enough to make himself an option for playing "3rd wheel" on a Top-6 line with much better players in the absence of actual Top-6 scorers.

As we've seen with him, and just saw again with the price for Heinen...teams don't pay these guys. They don't tend to give them term or dollars, and they're generally loathe to make any major commitment to guys that they fully view as temporary "filler".



The thing is...Hoggy's game isn't really built that well for the playoffs. It's built to be a little buzzsaw in the regular season, where he's only effective at all when he's running at absolute maximum intensity and effort at all times. But when the playoffs hit...he simply doesn't have another gear to get to. He's not big enough, fast enough, or skilled enough to elevate from there when the speed and physicality all ramp up and everyone else starts to join him up there at 110% effort.



Technically though, once you set that process in motion with a guy like Hoglander by submitting his QO...you're on the hook for potential player elected salary arbitration. Where things can get super goofy with a player boasting Hoggy's potential stat line. It can put you in a really awkward spot where you're paying well north of what he's worth...but not meeting the "walk away" threshold. So you're stuck with him. At a price that could be something stupid like $4M+ if he somehow replicates his unsustainable goal-scoring again.


Hoglander is going to be a really tricky deal to figure out. I love the guy, he's a good player who is currently providing crazy value at $1.1M. But he's also an awkward "misfit" who doesn't play well with Top-6 players, but isn't suited to a checking role and doesn't contribute anything at all to STs either. He's also more of a fringe 15-20G guy. He's always going to shoot at a higher rate than most, simply because of the type of goals he scores. But that's still going to fluctuate and dip from the insane SH% bender he was on last year.


So what is a small, slowish, defensively mediocre, non-STs contributing ~15G - 30pt winger really worth going forward? He's an infectious pesty little buzzsaw when he's "on" so there's value added there. But it's tough to commit a lot of salary and term to a player like that. As much as he's a personal favourite of mine to watch, when he's going.


I think there's a very high likelihood that unless he opts to take a super team-friendly deal that makes sense, he ends up trade bait. Maybe even sooner, rather than later. He's just unfortunately in that sort of mushy part of the roster without a well-defined role, where you ideally want to be able to continue churning guys over and trying to bring in "homegrown" talent to replace him on cheap ELCs/starter contracts like the one he's on now, and Podz just got.

i would not object in the least were the management group to decide both hoglander and podkolzin just aren't long term fits