Confirmed with Link: Leafs hire Mark Leach from the Stars as their new director of amateur scouting

[ULF_55]

You don't seem to be too easily impressed with stellar scouting and drafting.

Dallas Leaders for Goals, Assists and +/- in 2023-24

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When your Director of Amateur Scouting can boast that he can put out a starting Line-up that has gone to the final 4 in the playoffs the last couple years.

FORWARDS

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DEFENSE

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GOALTENDER

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Dallas Goal Leaders in 2023- 24 Mark Leach Work.

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I'm ALL IN !!!

We've already looked at his 10 years in Dallas.

Leafs problem hasn't been drafting, it's been trading the drafted players, or having GM's (Lamorielly and Dubas) give them away before knowing who they were. Verhaeghe we hardly knew him ... Grabner we hardly knew him, just wish we didn't.

 

[1specter]

We've already looked at his 10 years in Dallas.

Leafs problem hasn't been drafting, it's been trading the drafted players, or having GM's (Lamorielly and Dubas) give them away before knowing who they were. Verhaeghe we hardly knew him ... Grabner we hardly knew him, just wish we didn't.

Drafting has been a problem though. We had a plethora of picks between 2015-2018 and aside from the obvious lottery selections, we had very little of note come out the depth rounds. This has been a problem as we haven't really developed any impact players outside of the big 3 and Rielly who was drafted from an old regime, which has hurt our depth as we are constantly cap strapped. Knies has some promise as do some of the guys we've drafted 2020 onwards.

 

[ULF_55]

Are these draft results over 10 years that impressive?

First and second rounds are good, but then falls off a cliff.

Games Played	Round
Draft and Player	1​	2​	3​	4​	5​	6​	7​	Grand Total
2014 Entry	87​							87​
Aaron Haydon
Alex Peters
Brent Moran
Brett Pollock
John Nyberg
Julius Honka	87​							87​
Michael Prapavessis
Miro Karjalainen
2015 Entry	298​	392​						690​
Chris Martenet
Denis Gurianov	298​							298​
Joseph Cecconi
Markus Ruusu
Roope Hintz		392​						392​
2016 Entry	18​		8​	41​	36​			103​
Colton Point
Fredrik Karlstrom			8​					8​
Jakob Stenqvist
Nicholas Caamano					36​			36​
Rhett Gardner				41​				41​
Riley Tufte	18​							18​
2017 Entry	618​	292​			83​		3​	996​
Brett Davis
Dylan Ferguson							3​	3​
Jacob Peterson					83​			83​
Jake Oettinger	193​							193​
Jason Robertson		292​						292​
Liam Hawel
Miro Heiskanen	425​							425​
2018 Entry	151​				7​			158​
Adam Mascherin
Albin Eriksson
Curtis Douglas
Dawson Barteaux
Jermaine Loewen
Oskar Back
Riley Damiani					7​			7​
Ty Dellandrea	151​							151​
2019 Entry	119​							119​
Ben Brinkman
Nicholas Porco
Samuel Sjolund
Thomas Harley	119​							119​
2020 Entry	1​							1​
Antonio Stranges
Daniel Ljungman
Evgeniy Oksentyuk
Mavrik Bourque	1​							1​
Remi Poirier
2021 Entry	164​	24​						188​
Albert Sjoberg
Artem Grushnikov
Ayrton Martino
Conner Roulette
Francesco Arcuri
Jack Bar
Jacob Holmes
Justin Ertel
Logan Stankoven		24​						24​
Wyatt Johnston	164​							164​
2022 Entry
Christian Kyrou
Gavin White
George Fegaras
Lian Bichsel
Matthew Seminoff
Maxim Mayorov
2023 Entry
Angus MacDonell
Aram Minnetian
Arno Tiefensee
Brad Gardiner
Sebastian Bradshaw
Tristan Bertucci
2024 Entry
Emil Hemming
Niilopekka Muhonen
William Samuelsson
Grand Total	1456​	708​	8​	41​	126​		3​	2342​

 

[Mess]

 

[ULF_55]

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Look forward to what he can accomplish with very few picks in Toronto.

2 - first rounders (Burke would have chosen some goons)

Leafs second rounders

 

[LeafEgo]

I've wondered how similar drafting in rounds two and up are compared to the stock market, and whether or not the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) holds.

Are there obvious scouts out there with a long track record of making superior picks? And enough names over the years that overcome the odds of a few just flipping tails enough times in a row? Is success even tracked publicly?

Another thought is that the biggest difficulty in predicting a players potential is whether or not they can process the game at the extra fractional speed required in the nhl. And that you simply don't know.

Not well versed, just trying to pressure test theories, if anyone knows and is interested enough. I'm not confident rounds two and up are anything more than luck - albeit based on limited knowledge.

 

[Mess]

Look forward to what he can accomplish with very few picks in Toronto.

2 - first rounders (Burke would have chosen some goons)

Leafs second rounders

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For the most part what you're showing here is Director to Amateur Scouting Mark Hunter's brutal record.

Toronto Maple Leafs​

On October 21, 2014, Hunter was announced as the director of player personnel for the Toronto Maple Leafs.[1] On April 12, 2015, after the firing of general manager Dave Nonis, Hunter along with Kyle Dubas were named as co-interim general managers of the Maple Leafs, and they continued as assistant general managers after the Maple Leafs hired Lou Lamoriello. Lamoriello left the Maple Leafs in April 2018 and Dubas was named Toronto general manager. Shortly afterwards, Hunter agreed to mutually terminate the contract with the Maple Leafs.[2]

 

[Mess]

Here is a NY Times article referencing the Athletic where they ranked

Which NHL teams have drafted the best and worst since 2007? Ranking 16-1​

By Harman Dayal and Dom Luszczyszyn Nov 24, 2023

Link : https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5084336/2023/11/24/nhl-draft-ranking-best-picks/

• We’ll be analyzing data from 2007-2018. The 2019 to 2023 drafts won’t be included in our main data set because it’s too early to fully judge those results. Yes, some of those players are already obvious difference-makers but it’s still going to take a bit longer to get a clear grasp on just how good everybody in those draft classes is. It wouldn’t be right to statistically judge those picks this early.

• A club with tons of lottery picks and extra top-two-round selections should be judged differently than a contender that drafts late. Because of that, we’ll be using a model to determine each team’s “expected wins added” based on the picks they had each year and the historical worth of those selections.

• Players belong to their originally drafted team for the purpose of this exercise. Amateur scouting staffs don’t trade or sign draftees, they just need to target the right prospects.

Results

#1 Dallas Stars - under Mark Leach Director of amateur scouting

#2 Calgary Flames (under GM Treliving guidance)

 

[Racer88]

Hope he brings some of that Dallas Drafting Magic with him.

Why, do we have any picks left in this decade?

 

[ULF_55]

Here is a NY Times article referencing the Athletic where they ranked

Which NHL teams have drafted the best and worst since 2007? Ranking 16-1​

By Harman Dayal and Dom Luszczyszyn Nov 24, 2023

Link : https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5084336/2023/11/24/nhl-draft-ranking-best-picks/

• We’ll be analyzing data from 2007-2018. The 2019 to 2023 drafts won’t be included in our main data set because it’s too early to fully judge those results. Yes, some of those players are already obvious difference-makers but it’s still going to take a bit longer to get a clear grasp on just how good everybody in those draft classes is. It wouldn’t be right to statistically judge those picks this early.

• A club with tons of lottery picks and extra top-two-round selections should be judged differently than a contender that drafts late. Because of that, we’ll be using a model to determine each team’s “expected wins added” based on the picks they had each year and the historical worth of those selections.

• Players belong to their originally drafted team for the purpose of this exercise. Amateur scouting staffs don’t trade or sign draftees, they just need to target the right prospects.

Results

#1 Dallas Stars - under Mark Leach Director of amateur scouting

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#2 Calgary Flames (under GM Treliving guidance)

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Not sure how 2007 was starting point for evaluation for someone hired in 2014?

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Why, do we have any picks left in this decade?

All the more reason for him to hit on the picks we do have.

 

[Mess]

All the more reason for him to hit on the picks we do have.

Lets hope Mark Leach can repeat his 2017 draft class with Dallas. No Wonder Dallas has been in the final 4 the past 2 seasons competing for the Cup.

 

[Maple Leaf]

Lets hope Mark Leach can repeat his 2017 draft class with Dallas. No Wonder Dallas has been in the final 4 the past 2 seasons competing for the Cup.

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Wow

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

I've wondered how similar drafting in rounds two and up are compared to the stock market, and whether or not the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) holds.

Are there obvious scouts out there with a long track record of making superior picks? And enough names over the years that overcome the odds of a few just flipping tails enough times in a row? Is success even tracked publicly?

Another thought is that the biggest difficulty in predicting a players potential is whether or not they can process the game at the extra fractional speed required in the nhl. And that you simply don't know.

Not well versed, just trying to pressure test theories, if anyone knows and is interested enough. I'm not confident rounds two and up are anything more than luck - albeit based on limited knowledge.

I would say it compares very favourably.

I believe in the free market system. And the NHL draft is as laissez-faire as it gets. There's thousands and thousands of scouts all over the world watching these kids.

With everything being recorded so the video can be analyzed by computer programs.

Sounds the exact same as projecting stocks to me. Fundamental analysis (scouts) coupled with technical analysis (statistics). The same tools are being used for the same reason.

To predict blue chip prospects and find hidden gems.

With so much information readily available on every prospect it's an open market. Any "inefficiencies" quickly become moot because of copycats. It's impossible to arbitrage and the value of the assets changes daily as new information becomes available.

I'd say it's an awful lot like the stock market that way.

 

[LeafEgo]

I would say it compares very favourably.

I believe in the free market system. And the NHL draft is as laissez-faire as it gets. There's thousands and thousands of scouts all over the world watching these kids.

With everything being recorded so the video can be analyzed by computer programs.

Sounds the exact same as projecting stocks to me. Fundamental analysis (scouts) coupled with technical analysis (statistics). The same tools are being used for the same reason.

To predict blue chip prospects and find hidden gems.

With so much information readily available on every prospect it's an open market. Any "inefficiencies" quickly become moot because of copycats. It's impossible to arbitrage and the value of the assets changes daily as new information becomes available.

I'd say it's an awful lot like the stock market that way.

Yeah that's my hypothesis in a nutshell. It's a much smaller ecosystem though, so just curious how well it holds up, and with sports.

I likely wouldn't know if there have been a string of scouts, and enough of them, with a proven record of beating the market. Probably some folks on here that would know though.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

Yeah that's my hypothesis in a nutshell. It's a much smaller ecosystem though, so just curious how well it holds up, and with sports.

I likely wouldn't know if there have been a string of scouts, and enough of them, with a proven record of beating the market. Probably some folks on here that would know though.

The best scouts usually go on to become AGM's and GM's.

You will find an all star cast of scouts among the guys who have worked their way up through the system.

 

[LeafEgo]

The best scouts usually go on to become AGM's and GM's.

You will find an all star cast of scouts among the guys who have worked their way up through the system.

When you say an all star cast do you mean that there are always numerous folks that reliably beat the market over time drafting in the nhl?

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

When you say an all star cast do you mean that there are always numerous folks that reliably beat the market over time drafting in the nhl?

It would imply that, though I wouldn't say "numerous" or "always".

Correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation. If the draft was truly laissez-faire then over an extended period of time the results should even out. It's entirely possible some scouts are just really that much better at their job than everyone else.

It doesn't eliminate the possibility they're just lucky either though.

 

[Dayjobdave]

Drafting is a crapshoot, and the overall hit rate is pretty low for everyone. It is good to add an experienced talent evaluator to replace the guy who left, and hopefully we get our share of hits.

I’m generally not a fan of trading down to get more picks which seems to be our permanent strategy, fuelled by how many picks we deal away. This strikes me as an admission that the team isn’t sold on anyone. I’ll be happy if we hit on a few, we need the depth.

 

[ULF_55]

Drafting is a crapshoot, and the overall hit rate is pretty low for everyone. It is good to add an experienced talent evaluator to replace the guy who left, and hopefully we get our share of hits.

I’m generally not a fan of trading down to get more picks which seems to be our permanent strategy, fuelled by how many picks we deal away. This strikes me as an admission that the team isn’t sold on anyone. I’ll be happy if we hit on a few, we need the depth.

Bergman, 76 years old ... how much longer will he scout?
Maybe Leach will poach his replacement.

This is interesting, and is it why they drafted Johansson this year ...
“(Bergman) used to love to draft a boy and not a man. In his mind, if they were a boy there was tons of physical and mental potential for them to grow as players,” Morrisson said.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5053008/2023/11/15/maple-leafs-thommie-bergman/

Pastrnak eh?
Leafs and Stars both missed, but Leafs Nylander has earned his first round selection.

SCOUTING STAFF​

Amateur Scouts | Viktor Alm, Scott Bell, Thommie Bergman, Victor Carneiro, Christoffer Hedlund, Radim Jelinek, Olegs Koreskovs, Garth Malarchuk, Real Paiement, Darren Ritchie, Chris Roque, Grigori Shafigulin, Tony Salmelainen, Jim Vesey
Pro Scouts | Jackson Maxwell, Mike Penny, Richard Pollock, Jim Roque, Tom Watt
College Free Agent Scout | Chris Bourque

 

[Menzinger]

Bergman, 76 years old ... how much longer will he scout?
Maybe Leach will poach his replacement.

This is interesting, and is it why they drafted Johansson this year ...
“(Bergman) used to love to draft a boy and not a man. In his mind, if they were a boy there was tons of physical and mental potential for them to grow as players,” Morrisson said.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5053008/2023/11/15/maple-leafs-thommie-bergman/

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Pastrnak eh?
Leafs and Stars both missed, but Leafs Nylander has earned his first round selection.

SCOUTING STAFF​

Amateur Scouts | Viktor Alm, Scott Bell, Thommie Bergman, Victor Carneiro, Christoffer Hedlund, Radim Jelinek, Olegs Koreskovs, Garth Malarchuk, Real Paiement, Darren Ritchie, Chris Roque, Grigori Shafigulin, Tony Salmelainen, Jim Vesey
Pro Scouts | Jackson Maxwell, Mike Penny, Richard Pollock, Jim Roque, Tom Watt
College Free Agent Scout | Chris Bourque

Mirtle has said Bergman is essentially just part time at the moment but is apparently mentoring his replacement

 

[ULF_55]

Mirtle has said Bergman is essentially just part time at the moment but is apparently mentoring his replacement

Let's hope they integrate well.

 

[SprDaVE]

Mirtle has said Bergman is essentially just part time at the moment but is apparently mentoring his replacement

Years ago I believe it was said that he had no interest in being the head of the department as well. He was content in staying in Sweden doing his thing.

 

[stickty111]

Years ago I believe it was said that he had no interest in being the head of the department as well. He was content in staying in Sweden doing his thing.

He's been probably the most underrated part of this organization for a long time

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Mark Leach drafted Jason Robertson

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While Leafs drafted Nick Robertson

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1 single draft pick difference like that alone (even talking Brothers), could push the Leafs over the top.

Jason Robertson -- Auston Matthews -- Mitch Marner
vs.
Nick Roberson --- Auston Matthews -- Mitch Marner

This is a weird comparison considering they aren't even from the same draft.....

If you are trying to make a point based on size, that same scouting staff drafted 5'8 Logan Stankoven, who looks like a potential star in the making.