Canucks News, Rumours, & Fantasy GM | The Hunt for Red June

[Vector]

You know, Mantha was offered for Garland a few months ago according to Friedman.

Wonder if that’s a Mikheyev team. They must have really soured on Mikheyev and just want to get out of that deal.

Even if they like the guy and believe he'll rebound, similar to Kuzmenko, they recognize that everyone needs to be contributing and maximize their cap expenditures. He's taken a noticeable step back and that's really concerning given that you'd expect his skating to get better not worse.

 

[andora]

I've become a lot more skeptical of the public xG models as the game has evolved in recent years. We've seen games (like against SEA or even BOS) where they just don't create enough.

A lot of the Canucks chances also come via way of deflections/tips, which register as high xG/high-danger chances, but to me are not super reliable methods of chance creation. They are one of the worst teams in the league at creating rush chances.

I do think the Canucks are a good 5v5 team. But being ranked ~10 in category is not as dominant when you're playing the top-16 teams in the playoffs.

The public data has quickly fallen behind after a bunch of flashy ones became pop culture

Chances need to be broke down into certain categories relative to creation - there are so many factors that play into this stuff

Chances wise by data we are mid range - where i do believe we are strong is creating chances while leading a game because our system stays and forces the other team to push - an effective system should make the opponent adjust theirs - but in most other game instances its pretty even

 

[Vector]

Looking at the TOI stats and it's kind of funny how similar Mantha and Garland are. Both have 80 minutes total PP time. Neither PK. Both are pretty exclusively used at even strength. Their offensive production mirrors each other. Same PIMs and hits.

Biggest difference is giveaways and takeaways; 16 & 18 for Mantha while Garland is at a crazy 3 % 41. Garland takes more hits and draws more penalties. This tracks since Garland is such a persistent pest.

 

[UrbanImpact]

Mantha is banged up, game time decision today. That can be an added risk

 

[MS]

Even if they like the guy and believe he'll rebound, similar to Kuzmenko, they recognize that everyone needs to be contributing and maximize their cap expenditures. He's taken a noticeable step back and that's really concerning given that you'd expect his skating to get better not worse.

I like Mikheyev but if I'm given a choice between keeping him for next year and losing either Joshua or Blueger or trading a 2nd to move Mikheyev and keeping one or both of those guys ... that decision is pretty easy.

 

[Nick Lang]

I just don't see it. Especially not both of them. Seeler and Walker is their entire PK2 and #3 and #4 in TOI among d men. It would completely destroy the Flyer's ability to compete unless they receive back contributing players. But how would that work with how the majority of TDL deals are structured?

The way Briere and Co have been talking it seems they are pleased with the effort this year but almost like they couldn't really care less in contrast with the long term plan to develop a winner. I think Danny boy was hoping they would get at least one more high pick ... so I think they're probably be going to the highest bidder myself. Their playoff position is quite precarious too.

They did get Drysdale in trade as well but they would have to replace anyone traded out. Wouldn't be too difficult though. Walker with his tough play and 21 points is fairly significant but Seeler and his 1 goal 9 assists is pretty replaceable.

 

[UrbanImpact]

I think Podkolzin is going to get traded along with our 1st round 2025 pick for a player with term. Buchnevich?

 

[Vector]

I like Mikheyev but if I'm given a choice between keeping him for next year and losing either Joshua or Blueger or trading a 2nd to move Mikheyev and keeping one or both of those guys ... that decision is pretty easy.

He's also the only guy on the current roster who's not pulling their weight. They aren't moving any of the defencemen and all the other forwards are chipping in. We also know that management is willing to trade players they signed. If they want to make more than one depth move without LTIRing someone, then moving Mikheyev is the only path forward that I see.

 

[Vector]

Me at the entire league:

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

He's also the only guy on the current roster who's not pulling their weight. They aren't moving any of the defencemen and all the other forwards are chipping in. We also know that management is willing to trade players they signed. If they want to make more than one depth move without LTIRing someone, then moving Mikheyev is the only path forward that I see.

He's also the most logical piece to move to create cap space. They found a taker for Beauviller, I wonder if they can find a team with cap space to take on Mikheyev.

 

[wonton15]

He's also the most logical piece to move to create cap space. They found a taker for Beauviller, I wonder if they can find a team with cap space to take on Mikheyev.

Let’s just call Chicago again and dump another load on them. Bedard needs players to play with!!

 

[StickShift]

You know, Mantha was offered for Garland a few months ago according to Friedman.

Wonder if that’s a Mikheyev team. They must have really soured on Mikheyev and just want to get out of that deal.

Also, given what he makes, it’s going to have to be one of Myers, Mikheyev, and Cole - even with significant retention.

I don't think souring is the right word. It seems more like a recognition that he hasn't been the same player since coming back from his injury. The tone has definitely changed in the last month.

It might be difficult finding a taker for Mikheyev. A change of scenery can't repair an ACL. If that is the case, I think he is a candidate for a buy-out this off-season. I know another buy-out is the last thing that this club should be doing, but it might be rationalized if they determine they can't effectively replace Blueger or Joshua on the 3rd line.

His buy-out isn't the most painful either. But it stacks at exactly the wrong time of the OEL buyout.

 

[bossram]

Agree to disagree I guess. I keep looking at Bost last year getting knocked out in the 1st round, and how tough the west path to the SCFs is. Do you really want this to be a one shot deal?

And do you think FA is really happy with the idea that after this year there is no need to buy seasons tickets? After 10 crappy years you would think people would learn that its better to have a contender year after year. Other teams manage to do it.

Unless a deal is a clear steal for us, I don't want to give up our prime assets. On top of that, we are going to have cap problems for a few years yet, and we just beat the No 2 team in the league. Do we really need to put ourselves in the cellar for the sake of a borderline player that we can barely afford to acquire. There will be the cost to acquire him, and the cost to dump salary as well.

Bolded, no, I don't.

But if you believe (as you've seemed to indicate) that the future competitiveness of the team will be pretty uncertain given the UFA/RFA situations, then it makes sense to prioritize this season over others, as you know you'll have a decent shot now, but not in the future. If you think the team is currently set up for long-term, sustainable contention, then going all-in makes less sense.

I don't know what Frankie wants. But he seemingly and consistently is committed to short-termism and is probably salivating at the chance for the revenue from a long playoff run right now.

I've also never said to give up our "prime assets". I have been pretty clear about not trading Willander. And to trade Lekkerimaki, it would take a very specific piece.

Yeah haula the player would be a great add but the term nah

I like Nosek though as the boring 4th line center role

Nosek would be totally fine for depth, but I don't think he's additive on top of Lafftery/Suter/Blueger or whoever ends up as 4C.

And like I said, Lazar has had the more impressive season so far.

 

[Vector]

Canucks currently have 22/23 contracts and could send down Bains. They won't activate Soucy and Joshua until after the trade deadline. If I were to guess, they'd like to swap Mikheyev for another player, acquire another depth piece, and sign and call-up Kessel. That would put them 23/23 by the end of the deadline without having to waive anyone.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Canucks keeping tabs on Duhaime.

 

[bossram]

Let’s just call Chicago again and dump another load on them. Bedard needs players to play with!!

You say that kinda jokingly, but I actually do think Chicago is (again!) a realistic out with Mikheyev.

 

[wonton15]

Canucks keeping tabs on Duhaime.

Duhaime has been a player that multiple posters here have mentioned for the entire year as a high motor depth target. I like him a lot as depth

 

[MS]

Canucks keeping tabs on Duhaime.

The interesting thing with any Minnesota deal is that there are still a few Brackett guys in the system, Podkolzin in particular.

Podkolzin is too high a price for a Duhaime rental, though.

 

[LemonSauceD]

In before Joseph Nathan (or whatever his name is) comes in here and demands nothing short of a 1st round pick and a prospect for Duhaime

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

I think Podkolzin is going to get traded along with our 1st round 2025 pick for a player with term. Buchnevich?

Dont see it..JR pretty much said that after the Lindholm trade, they will only make a trade if a deficiency pops up...All they really need is another depth D man..Friedman concurred.

When Soucy and Joshua return from injury, that makes the squad pretty formidable IMO

 

[andora]

The interesting thing with any Minnesota deal is that there are still a few Brackett guys in the system, Podkolzin in particular.

Podkolzin is too high a price for a Duhaime rental, though.

What you need is another guy in the middle.. who can play a ton

Then we can talk

 

[rypper]

@Izzy Goodenough Not a taker on this?

I'd like to get in on this action.

Izzy can get double the "winnings" from Bossram and I.

 

[Nick Lang]

He’d have such limited value you can grab him for nothing and maybe with retention just as depth.

Great little player who can play with purpose and some skill. He might also make a decent partner with one of the giants in Soucy, and Zadorov. Soucy and Myers, with Zadorov and Stetcher would work if we're giving Cole a rest. Would probably look good with Cole too, as he can provide the wheels on that pair. Certainly would be a nice depth get.

I've been musing a bit on Tarasenko.

The previous thread had speculation about Mikheyev for Tarasenko, and I'm considering the likelihood of that here.

He wanted to sign with a contender for term, that was NYR to him. They couldn't afford him and so others circled: CAR, OTT, FLA, SJ and NSH. Curiously, he rejected other contenders like FLA and CAR to sign with OTT. He may have thought at that point to go for the money.

And so, I went through looking for contenders with the ability to re-sign him for 2 years at $5m per. As well, the teams that may be willing to give up a middle-6 forward in exchange. This is what OTT is speculated to want. Almost none would consider a middle-6 player swap for a rental, except VAN. What's more, they're the only team that could re-sign a $5m~ AAV player in turn. FLA would re-sign Reinhart instead. CAR would look at bringing Teravainen back first. And so on...

Last, going after Tarasenko vs Guentzel, or even just re-signing Tarasenko over retaining Lindholm, allows VAN to maintain their cap flexibility. It's the type of move that can work very well from many angles.

I've liked Tarasenko for awhile now. Even dating back a couple years. Nice size at 210 and a genuine sniper with 6 30 goal seasons. Only 15 so far this year, about a 23 goal pace but he's also capable of playing a pretty heavy role in the playoffs too and would bring some of that SC experience as well.

To do it in season, with where they are in the standings.

The trade would have to be a clear win IMO.

I don’t disagree with what you’re saying, but still can’t see it. Can you imagine them trading Petey and this team having a rough finish to the season and a first round exit. All the good will they have would be gone in an instant/

The idea itself is so silly and out of touch with basic hockey knowledge it doesn't really deserve a response ... but yet here I am lol. So yeah, that 100% isn't happening.

Agree to disagree I guess. I keep looking at Bost last year getting knocked out in the 1st round, and how tough the west path to the SCFs is. Do you really want this to be a one shot deal?

And do you think FA is really happy with the idea that after this year there is no need to buy seasons tickets? After 10 crappy years you would think people would learn that its better to have a contender year after year. Other teams manage to do it.

Unless a deal is a clear steal for us, I don't want to give up our prime assets. On top of that, we are going to have cap problems for a few years yet, and we just beat the No 2 team in the league. Do we really need to put ourselves in the cellar for the sake of a borderline player that we can barely afford to acquire. There will be the cost to acquire him, and the cost to dump salary as well.

I agree in general. I've been a fan of this team forever it would be nice to see them build properly for once and not throw away the future every time they get anywhere close. Unfortunately we are in tough the next couple of years so it's very tempting to go for it while we're having this great season. Honestly I'm not sure what I want or what the best approach is. I'm just going to sit back and see what happens at this point.

The public data has quickly fallen behind after a bunch of flashy ones became pop culture

Chances need to be broke down into certain categories relative to creation - there are so many factors that play into this stuff

Chances wise by data we are mid range - where i do believe we are strong is creating chances while leading a game because our system stays and forces the other team to push - an effective system should make the opponent adjust theirs - but in most other game instances its pretty even

Yeah, I personally like the eye test and have really grown tired of the "advanced stats". It's like someone fell asleep while watching the game and you asked them for a recap. They don't bother to actually delve into the game or tell you something meaningful. Like how about rating every chance from a 1 to 5 (10) based on how good it was as compared to just a binary generated a chance of some sort or not, useless type of info we get now. Seems super lazy and incomplete to me.

As far as the 5v5 I agree with @bossram. I too am aware that the way we generate chances 5v5 has the possibility of drying up come playoff time. We already play a playoff style game but other teams will adopt that style in the second season as well so it's hard to know how that will playout when the checking gets tighter.

I don't think souring is the right word. It seems more like a recognition that he hasn't been the same player since coming back from his injury. The tone has definitely changed in the last month.

It might be difficult finding a taker for Mikheyev. A change of scenery can't repair an ACL. If that is the case, I think he is a candidate for a buy-out this off-season. I know another buy-out is the last thing that this club should be doing, but it might be rationalized if they determine they can't effectively replace Blueger or Joshua on the 3rd line.

His buy-out isn't the most painful either. But it stacks at exactly the wrong time of the OEL buyout.

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I was not a fan of this signing and I'm even less of one now. I figured the last thing they needed was another $5 million dollar tweener with our cap situation. I'm sure he would have been better without the injury but still never felt he was the type of player we needed imo. I always felt lack of a tough top 6 player was our biggest weakness.

 

[supercanuck]

Is there a good website that summarizes who is on the ice when a player scores a goal or gets a point? (i.e. Hughes is on the ice for 50 of EP's 70 points)

 

[bossram]

Generally grown tired of the "advanced stats". It's like someone fell asleep while watching the game and you asked them for a recap. They don't bother to actually delve into the game or tell you something meaningful. Like how about rating every chance from a 1 to 5 (10) based on how good it was as compared to just a binary generated a chance of some sort or not, useless type of info we get now. Seems super lazy and incomplete to me.

As far as the 5v5 I agree with @bossram. I too am aware that the way we generate chances 5v5 has the possibility of drying up come playoff time. We already play a playoff style game but other teams will adopt that style in the second season as well so it's hard to know how that will playout when the checking gets tighter.

To be clear, I am probably one of the biggest proponents of the new-age analytics and stats here.

I'm just saying that the expected goal models were trained on goal/shot location data from many seasons ago now. The nature of the game and how offense is created has changed, and we know there are some things the public models can't capture (e.g. passing) because the data doesn't exist publicly for the model to capture.

But yes, I think the Canucks need to either generate more chances, or diversify how they create chances. Like you said, other teams will adjust and we're already starting to see that.