Canucks News, Rumours, & Fantasy GM | The Hunt for Red June

[Diversification]

The way Briere and Co have been talking it seems they are pleased with the effort this year but almost like they couldn't really care less in contrast with the long term plan to develop a winner. I think Danny boy was hoping they would get at least one more high pick ... so I think they're probably be going to the highest bidder myself. Their playoff position is quite precarious too.

They did get Drysdale in trade as well but they would have to replace anyone traded out. Wouldn't be too difficult though. Walker with his tough play and 21 points is fairly significant but Seeler and his 1 goal 9 assists is pretty replaceable.

They’re 3rd in the Metro Division, 5 points clear of Jersey. Their position isn’t all that precarious, especially since the final 2 wildcards look to be claimed by the Atlantic. The deadline is a week and a half away. Would have to be a ton of movement from a listless NJD to really change the picture.

And it’s not the offensive output that should be considered with defensemen but rather the TOI. Walker and Seelers are 3rd and 4th respectively. Who are the 2 amen they have to pick up ~18-20 minutes a night?

It would absolutely tank them to deal Seelers and Walker and send a terrible message to the room and undermine Torts and the player buy-in he’s managed to wring from this group. And for what? They’re too far ahead to make up ground with the truly garbage teams like SJS, CBJ and CHI. So it’ll be a 11-14OA pick. Yay, I guess?

 

[pitseleh]

I've become a lot more skeptical of the public xG models as the game has evolved in recent years. We've seen games (like against SEA or even BOS) where they just don't create enough.

A lot of the Canucks chances also come via way of deflections/tips, which register as high xG/high-danger chances, but to me are not super reliable methods of chance creation. They are one of the worst teams in the league at creating rush chances.

I do think the Canucks are a good 5v5 team. But being ranked ~10 in category is not as dominant when you're playing the top-16 teams in the playoffs.

They’re only 15th in score adjusted xGF rate in the league according to Natural Stat Trick, so they are basically an average-ish offensive team at 5v5. Their above average xGF% is driven by their good defensive results.

That’s pretty consistent with how I (and I think most) view them.

 

[bossram]

They’re only 15th in score adjusted xGF rate in the league according to Natural Stat Trick, so they are basically an average-ish offensive team at 5v5. Their above average xGF% is driven by their good defensive results.

That’s pretty consistent with how I (and I think most) view them.

1. That's the full season results. They've improved as the season has gone on. Over the last 25 games, per NST, they're 11-12 overall by xG and SCF.

2. I don't think most view them as an average offensive team. I routinely get push back when I say they need to create more offense, and most fans have memories of their earlier shooting benders and think this is an elite offensive team (and point to their total GF as evidence)

3. I've already outlined my reasons for thinking that xG oversells their offensive creation.

 

[andora]

1. That's the full season results. They've improved as the season has gone on. Over the last 25 games, per NST, they're 11-12 overall by xG and SCF.

2. I don't think most view them as an average offensive team. I routinely get push back when I say they need to create more offense, and most fans have memories of their earlier shooting benders and think this is an elite offensive team (and point to their total GF as evidence)

3. I've already outlined my reasons for thinking that xG oversells their offensive creation.

I think you said it better / to be more receptive using the term diversify their chances

Ideally at the very least being able to generate even 3 to 5 more chances by different means would be huge

 

[Vector]

Pettersson
-other teams aren't doing their jobs if they don't inquire
-everyone knows it's a "go-for-it" year
-if Pettersson is traded and a team didn't know he was available an owner would be mad at his GM; cites the Thornton trade as an example of this
-Canucks goal and plan is to sign him
-would be shocked...stunned if Pettersson is traded now
-teams doing their due diligence
-thinks Pettersson loves when Rogers Arena is loud and recognizes how much fun that is
-Pettersson is a pretty private guy and doesn't like how much his words get parsed
-doesn't know how much there is to report on his overall contract negotiation
-has always assumed the talks would get punted to the summer

Canucks' Deadline Plans:
-have to expect the unexpected from Jim Rutherford
-Canucks management believe they can win the Stanley Cup
-looking around and considering a lot
-Rutherford has mentioned they have to be careful with the chemistry of the team
-looking at things big and small
-if they are going to give away more good assets, similar to what they traded away for Lindholm, it won't be for a rental; would be for someone with term or can extend
-in on a lot of stuff and considering a lot of possibilities

Chris Tanev:
-not surprised he hasn't moved yet
-teams waiting for the cap hit to go down
-Flames are trying to build up a market
-there is an injury risk but hasn't actually missed a lot of games
-Flames have waivered between trading and extending him

 

[pitseleh]

1. That's the full season results. They've improved as the season has gone on. Over the last 25 games, per NST, they're 11-12 overall by xG and SCF.

Once you start chopping things down into smaller samples, there’s going to be more noise. They may not have been the 11th best team in the league at generating chances the last 25 games, but they also probably weren’t the 22nd best team prior to that as the numbers peg them.

2. I don't think most view them as an average offensive team. I routinely get push back when I say they need to create more offense, and most fans have memories of their earlier shooting benders and think this is an elite offensive team (and point to their total GF as evidence)

No dispute they aren’t an elite offensive team at even strength.

But their xG numbers are consistent with them being an average-ish team at generating EV chances, so unless you think they are much worse than that the numbers are generally aligned with how I think most reasonable people view them.

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

Friedman actually has legitimate sources, so I believe what he's saying here.

 

[VanillaCoke]

It's such a relief to know that something is going to happen, and that the target is most likely going to be someone good to very good.
This year they've hit home run after home run, acquiring alot of the players I've liked/wanted, and even the rumored players they're looking at are good ones I also like.
The first year of sitting on their hands is forgotten.


Also funny Calgary thinks they can extend Tanev. He ain't staying in Alberta, will be a canuck in six months or less one way or another.

 

[Peen]

Duhaime is interesting

I mentioned a few months ago how another physical F was 3rd on my list behind top six f/ top four d.

Two reasons why that’s 10x’d for me.

1. With Hoglander and Suter moving up in the lineup, that fourth line has had a big identity hit.

2. What the lineup has looked like post-Joshua injury. Two of our faster guys in Mikheyev and Lafferty have slumped hardest when Joshua’s been out.

Needs an identity again. I’m of the mindset that your 4th line, unless it’s glowing with quality, should be playing like 5 minutes a night come playoff time.

I don’t buy Blueger sticking on the fourth line. He’s a better player than Mikheyev, Suter, Hoglander, Bains.

My guess is that by the time the pieces move around that Suter is down there again.

Duhaime - Suter - Lafferty

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Duhaime is interesting

I mentioned a few months ago how another physical F was 3rd on my list behind top six f/ top four d.

Two reasons why that’s 10x’d for me.

1. With Hoglander and Suter moving up in the lineup, that fourth line has had a big identity hit.

2. What the lineup has looked like post-Joshua injury. Two of our faster guys in Mikheyev and Lafferty have slumped hardest when Joshua’s been out.

Needs an identity again. I’m of the mindset that your 4th line, unless it’s glowing with quality, should be playing like 5 minutes a night come playoff time.

I don’t buy Blueger sticking on the fourth line. He’s a better player than Mikheyev, Suter, Hoglander, Bains.

My guess is that by the time the pieces move around that Suter is down there again.

Duhaime - Suter - Lafferty

I think upgrading on PDG / Aman for the playoffs and having those guys be injury relief is the type of shrewd tinkering that is needed for a contending team. Duhaime would fit one of those roles.

The question for me is whether the Canucks add another top-six forward, thus pushing Suter to 4C, or whether they straight up acquire a 4C.

 

[LemonSauceD]

Duhaime is interesting

I mentioned a few months ago how another physical F was 3rd on my list behind top six f/ top four d.

Two reasons why that’s 10x’d for me.

1. With Hoglander and Suter moving up in the lineup, that fourth line has had a big identity hit.

2. What the lineup has looked like post-Joshua injury. Two of our faster guys in Mikheyev and Lafferty have slumped hardest when Joshua’s been out.

Needs an identity again. I’m of the mindset that your 4th line, unless it’s glowing with quality, should be playing like 5 minutes a night come playoff time.

I don’t buy Blueger sticking on the fourth line. He’s a better player than Mikheyev, Suter, Hoglander, Bains.

My guess is that by the time the pieces move around that Suter is down there again.

Duhaime - Suter - Lafferty

This might be an unpopular opinion but I can totally see Lafferty being moved to clear some extra cap space for a much large acquisition or part of one at least.

Because PDG has another year @ 750k with us and is the perfect depth/extra guy that can bounce in and out of lineup, they might be more inclined to move Lafferty who is likely not going to be re signed to address a need (Tanev, depth defenseman/forward, clearing cap space for a top 9 forward etc).

 

[wonton15]

Announce a trade cowards

 

[SelltheTeamFrancesco]

Friedman actually has legitimate sources, so I believe what he's saying here.

What is he saying sounds like a whole lot nothing.

 

[Nick Lang]

They’re 3rd in the Metro Division, 5 points clear of Jersey. Their position isn’t all that precarious, especially since the final 2 wildcards look to be claimed by the Atlantic. The deadline is a week and a half away. Would have to be a ton of movement from a listless NJD to really change the picture.

And it’s not the offensive output that should be considered with defensemen but rather the TOI. Walker and Seelers are 3rd and 4th respectively. Who are the 2 amen they have to pick up ~18-20 minutes a night?

It would absolutely tank them to deal Seelers and Walker and send a terrible message to the room and undermine Torts and the player buy-in he’s managed to wring from this group. And for what? They’re too far ahead to make up ground with the truly garbage teams like SJS, CBJ and CHI. So it’ll be a 11-14OA pick. Yay, I guess?

I get what you're saying but I'm also just going by the tone of the message from Briere and the org. They've been consistently on record saying it's all about the development and the future. Even in the off-season and very early in the season when they were at or near the top of the table, and they just re-iterated it the other day again.

Here's an interesting article that's kind of all over the place but hits on the general talking points. (Torts comments in both of these are somewhat telling)

The Flyers should stay the course even with the recent rash of injuries - FLYERS NITTY GRITTY

The NHL trade deadline will commence on March 8, 2024. It’s coming fast, it’s coming like a speed of lightning. In all seriousness, I can’t believe March is

flyersnittygritty.com

(One about Seeler, apparently talks of an extension)

Nick Seeler, Flyers reportedly working on contract extension

Nick Seeler was once thought to be a trade deadline target. With a few weeks to go, the Flyers are looking at keeping Seeler around past this season.

broadstreetbuzz.com

I know points isn't the best metric, especially dmen, but I was just going at a quick glance. Walker definitely playing a major role, and Seeler is playing lots of minutes and games. But, I really do believe they are fully committed to their plan and this year hasn't really changed that at all. I guess we'll see soon.

I know @bossram has all but written Jersey off but they are still in very close striking distance imo. Same as Pittsburgh. They haven't gotten it together consistently all year but they have 4 games in hand, and they are sitting at +15, which is usually an indicator of a good team and a possible late riser. I'm surprised the Isles have slowly slipped but they are only 7 back with 2 games in hand. Washington 6 back with 3 games in hand. A lot of hockey left to be played. I wouldn't be overly confident in their shoes myself.

Very fair post though all in all.

 

[bossram]

Once you start chopping things down into smaller samples, there’s going to be more noise. They may not have been the 11th best team in the league at generating chances the last 25 games, but they also probably weren’t the 22nd best team prior to that as the numbers peg them.



No dispute they aren’t an elite offensive team at even strength.

But their xG numbers are consistent with them being an average-ish team at generating EV chances, so unless you think they are much worse than that the numbers are generally aligned with how I think most reasonable people view them.

Even if we take their xG rank as given, average is not "good". They should be looking to improve in their chance creation.

And as I said, I think how they generate chances is oversold by xG. They need to diversify their chance creation (i.e. more rush or "quick strike" types of chances off a neutral zone change of possession).

 

[bossram]

I know @bossram has all but written Jersey off but they are still in very close striking distance imo. Same as Pittsburgh. They haven't gotten it together consistently all year but they have 4 games in hand, and they are sitting at +15, which is usually an indicator of a good team and a possible late riser. I'm surprised the Isles have slowly slipped but they are only 7 back with 2 games in hand. Washington 6 back with 3 games in hand. A lot of hockey left to be played. I wouldn't be overly confident in their shoes myself.

Very fair post though all in all.

NJ just hasn't put together any type of consistent winning stretch all season. And now there's a let down after losing the biggest game of the season. I watch them a lot. And they just don't have it this year. The defensive mistakes compound, guys like Luke Hughes are simply overleveraged, and even though they're as healthy as they're going to get, the offense looks less imposing.

I normally would pick PIT as a team that I think can catch PHI or TB, but with Guentzel and now Rust out, it will be very tough sledding.

WAS I don't rate at all. They're not good. Same with NYI.

 

[arttk]

Announce a trade cowards

it;s not friday

 

[Hooz]

This might be an unpopular opinion but I can totally see Lafferty being moved to clear some extra cap space for a much large acquisition or part of one at least.

Because PDG has another year @ 750k with us and is the perfect depth/extra guy that can bounce in and out of lineup, they might be more inclined to move Lafferty who is likely not going to be re signed to address a need (Tanev, depth defenseman/forward, clearing cap space for a top 9 forward etc).

There was no way Lafferty was going to sustain the energy and physicality of his early season play for the whole year. I don’t put too much stock into the dip in his play honestly. I think he’ll be impactful come playoff time and a pretty significant upgrade on a PDG type. He was good in the playoffs for the Leafs last year. I wouldn’t be down with moving him to save a couple 100k.

 

[Vector]

Announce a trade cowards

Last year, things really started to kick off on the Saturday before. There was a consistency of trades every couple of days before that crazy week. This season, pretty much nothing has happened.

2022-2023: March 3rd Deadline

Jan 30th - Bo Horvat trade
Feb 5th - Jaycob Megna trade
Feb 9th - Vladimir Tarasenko trade
Feb 17th - Ryan O'Reilly trade
Feb 19th - Tyler Motte trade
Feb 22nd - Nikita Zaitsev trade
Feb 23rd - Dmitri Orlov trade
Feb 25th - 3 trades
Feb 26th - 6 trades
Feb 27th - 2 trades
Feb 28th - 10 trades
Mar 1st - 9 trades
Mar 2nd - 7 trades
Mar 3rd - 19 trades

2023-2024: March 8th Deadline

Jan 31st - Elias Lindholm trade
Feb 2nd - Sean Monahan trade
Feb 22nd - Bemstrom trade

 

[Peen]

This might be an unpopular opinion but I can totally see Lafferty being moved to clear some extra cap space for a much large acquisition or part of one at least.

Because PDG has another year @ 750k with us and is the perfect depth/extra guy that can bounce in and out of lineup, they might be more inclined to move Lafferty who is likely not going to be re signed to address a need (Tanev, depth defenseman/forward, clearing cap space for a top 9 forward etc).

I agree.

My TDL tiers -

Player(s) I think they’d like to move:
- Mikheyev

Player(s) I think they’re open to moving / have to move if they’re going to do a lot in terms of money coming in
- Myers
- Cole
- Lafferty
(All expiring and make decent money. None seem even remotely likely to return)

AHL guys:
Everyone but Bains and Raty, you would assume. Feel like there’s some good filler/sweetener guys there, most notably Podkolzin & Silovs

Guys I wouldn’t 100% shut the door on them moving before the playoffs:
Hoglander, Voldemort

 

[oceanchild]

Duhaime is interesting

I mentioned a few months ago how another physical F was 3rd on my list behind top six f/ top four d.

Two reasons why that’s 10x’d for me.

1. With Hoglander and Suter moving up in the lineup, that fourth line has had a big identity hit.

2. What the lineup has looked like post-Joshua injury. Two of our faster guys in Mikheyev and Lafferty have slumped hardest when Joshua’s been out.

Needs an identity again. I’m of the mindset that your 4th line, unless it’s glowing with quality, should be playing like 5 minutes a night come playoff time.

I don’t buy Blueger sticking on the fourth line. He’s a better player than Mikheyev, Suter, Hoglander, Bains.

My guess is that by the time the pieces move around that Suter is down there again.

Duhaime - Suter - Lafferty

I disagree with your Blueger take, Suter and Hoglander are better imo. Blueger has chemistry with his line mates for sure and that matters. Hoglander should stay up the line up, he has earned it. Suter as 4C is a better option for the team as a whole and his spot needs to be filled with Miller and Boeser. Lafferty has gone cold, Mikheyev won’t be in the lineup post deadline if he doesn’t find his game (I think they are praying he can get going so they can trade him). I think Kessel ends up playing more than we currently anticipate and we swing hard for a top 6 player ths costs us Lekk + and that player
Is either got years on contract or is controlled (RFA) or has a deal in place before the trade.

 

[wonton15]

Last year, things really started to kick off on the Saturday before. There was a consistency of trades every couple of days before that crazy week. This season, pretty much nothing has happened.

2022-2023: March 3rd Deadline

Jan 30th - Bo Horvat trade
Feb 5th - Jaycob Megna trade
Feb 9th - Vladimir Tarasenko trade
Feb 17th - Ryan O'Reilly trade
Feb 19th - Tyler Motte trade
Feb 22nd - Nikita Zaitsev trade
Feb 23rd - Dmitri Orlov trade
Feb 25th - 3 trades
Feb 26th - 6 trades
Feb 27th - 2 trades
Feb 28th - 10 trades
Mar 1st - 9 trades
Mar 2nd - 7 trades
Mar 3rd - 19 trades

2023-2024: March 8th Deadline

Jan 31st - Elias Lindholm trade
Feb 2nd - Sean Monahan trade
Feb 22nd - Bemstrom trade

Thanks for that. I think we can expect a few mid to big trades this week around the league. See you all here Friday at 3pm for a Canucks trade! I’ll keep my eyes open on Reddit for the insiders

 

[oceanchild]

Last year, things really started to kick off on the Saturday before. There was a consistency of trades every couple of days before that crazy week. This season, pretty much nothing has happened.

2022-2023: March 3rd Deadline

Jan 30th - Bo Horvat trade
Feb 5th - Jaycob Megna trade
Feb 9th - Vladimir Tarasenko trade
Feb 17th - Ryan O'Reilly trade
Feb 19th - Tyler Motte trade
Feb 22nd - Nikita Zaitsev trade
Feb 23rd - Dmitri Orlov trade
Feb 25th - 3 trades
Feb 26th - 6 trades
Feb 27th - 2 trades
Feb 28th - 10 trades
Mar 1st - 9 trades
Mar 2nd - 7 trades
Mar 3rd - 19 trades

2023-2024: March 8th Deadline

Jan 31st - Elias Lindholm trade
Feb 2nd - Sean Monahan trade
Feb 22nd - Bemstrom trade

Your missing the Nylander blockbuster

 

[Vector]

Your missing the Nylander blockbuster

I am not because Bemstrom is the only guy in the trade that may actually matter.

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

This might be an unpopular opinion but I can totally see Lafferty being moved to clear some extra cap space for a much large acquisition or part of one at least.

Because PDG has another year @ 750k with us and is the perfect depth/extra guy that can bounce in and out of lineup, they might be more inclined to move Lafferty who is likely not going to be re signed to address a need (Tanev, depth defenseman/forward, clearing cap space for a top 9 forward etc).

Very possible and might actually be a wise move. Lafferty has slowed down a lot in the 2nd half of the season