Canucks News, Rumours, and & Fantasy GM | Will they stay or will they go, now?

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Last one was over 1,000. Continue here.

Vector's NHL Transaction Tracker.

Some Important Off-Season Dates

Buyout Period: 48 hours after the SCF; players without NMCs must be placed on unconditional waivers 24 hours prior (another buyout period opens if a team has a player file for arbitration)
Team-Elected Arbitration: 48 hours after the SCF
Draft Day 01: June 28th
Draft Day 02: June 29th
Qualifying Offer Date: July 1st
Free Agency Opens: July 1st
Player-Elected Arbitration: July 5th
Young Stars Classic Tournament: Sep. 13th-16th

Click to read more...

 

[theguardianII]

This argument really isn’t about Mikheyev or Joshua + Zadorov. They want to bring in Guentzel and there isn’t enough $$ for all 4.

Guentzel doesn't want to be here.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

I'm still not convinced Zadorov will be back.

Just too much interest in the open market.

But if he does, I'd expect a Hronek trade almost immediately thereafter.

 

[theguardianII]

So should they also get rid of Pettersson, because he was pretty far from being a needle moving contributor over the last half of the season and into the playoffs?

I think the fall off with Pettersson is like comparing falling off a mountain and jumping off a chair. Which had the biggest effect?

 

[Szechwan]

A lot of people here were cool with letting Tanev go. Maybe they can learn the hard way again.

A lot of people are idiots.

A bit of hindsight/revisionist history, no?

Tanev's last 4 years here he played 53, 42, 55, 69 games. He was considered by almost everyone to be in a stage of his career where injuries were inevitable.

No one wanted to jetison Tanev because of the way he played - it just did not look like he had much left in his career.

I don't really think this situation is similar.

 

[theguardianII]

I'm still not convinced Zadorov will be back.

Just too much interest in the open market.

But if he does, I'd expect a Hronek trade almost immediately thereafter.

I worry about that.
In two years the Canucks could be signing a 3/4/5 dman for 5+ mil and then it turns out to be Gudbranson.

 

[Nuckles]

Joshua at anywhere north of $2.5M is a mistake to me. Anywhere north of $3M and ranging into that $4M+ range is just Clarkson shit. He's a good player and we need his size and physicality...but you can't pay a 10-12G guy that much because he had a wild, unsustainable year at age 28. This was very likely his "high water mark" on his career. He's not shooting 21.5% next year or any of the other years of whatever this deal is. And he doesn't really generate his own scoring opportunities. Garland did that for him.

Clarkson was signed to a $5.25M cap hit back in 2013 when the salary cap was $64.3M. The comparable cap hit in 2024 would be $7.15M. So no, ~$3.5M isn't Clarkson shit.
And Clarkson was certainly not good enough defensively to be relied on as a PKer. He had also been a long-time established NHLer, and this was Joshua's 2nd full NHL season.

I want to bring up another player. Now I'm not saying he's the same player, but...Alex Burrows.
Back in March 2009, at the age of 28 Burrows signed a 4 year contract extension with a $2M AAV (that everyone agreed was a generous discount) during his first season posting top 6 forward numbers.
In today's cap that would be $3.1M.

I think we can all agree he's likely not shooting 20%+ next season, but he provides so much more than that. Also there's value in a player that can finish plays and knows where to be on the ice to do so.

 

[Szechwan]

Just wanna say the moment Zadorov signs im ordering his jersey. Too bad it's only Fanatics garbage now.

There are still a couple sites out there with excess Adidas jerseys, you just gotta look. I bit the bullet and grabbed a black skate Adidas last month.

 

[Wisp]

just go to the team store. will filter that quality control for you. do not under any circumstances order from fanatics.

I mean, we would almost certainly have been in the Conference Finals if we hadn't been forced to play our 3rd string goalie in the playoffs instead of the guy who was 2nd in Vezina voting.

This was a very good team last year.

I think the fairest way to put it is they were a very good team but not quite good enough.

 

[MS]

A bit of hindsight/revisionist history, no?

Tanev's last 4 years here he played 53, 42, 55, 69 games. He was considered by almost everyone to be in a stage of his career where injuries were inevitable.

No one wanted to jetison Tanev because of the way he played - it just did not look like he had much left in his career.

I don't really think this situation is similar.

He played every game in his last season and still appeared to be in top form, and there were tons of us that wanted to bring him back and realized what a difficult asset he was to replace.

I think the fairest way to put it is they were a very good team but not quite good enough.

It's really hard to say since we have no idea what would have happened without Demko.

We surely would have made it past Edmonton with Demko and who knows past that?

When you look at our regular season + playoffs we were a top-5 team in the NHL last season. Things were close.

 

[racerjoe]

Has Vegas or TB ever dumped a player with as much negative value as Mikheyev. I don’t think it’s about being cutthroat, I think it’s about the Canucks have very little futures and not wanting to buy him out because the OEL buy out.

Probably need to attach the 2025 first, or if we are lucky EP 2 and a second or third to get rid of him. And the reality is this management team absolutely isn’t willing to burn everything for a 2-3 year stretch and get fired in 4-5 years. Almost all management teams at this stage in their cycle are tiring to catch lightning in a bottle and be that consistent playoff team ala Carolina.

I agree, but I think if that is the cost, you have to look instead at moving him another person who hopefully just needs a new fresh start.

I get that. They've done the right things so far.

But Mikheyev is 'their guy' and it's a bit easier to take the safe route out with him rather than admit your first big signing is a negative-value donkey at this point.

As I mentioned above I think the most likely outcome is moving him for other not great salary, or an asset that hopefully just needs a fresh start. So either something like the Dickinson trade where we bring in something to cut the cost down, or a trade like to the Canes for Kotkaniemi, or something like that where he plays a more important role and you hope you can get a guy that just needed a fresh start.

 

[tradervik]

My gut is telling me that Zadorov is going to sign. Millstein is trying to squeeze as much as he can out of the Canucks but he’ll take the “final offer”.

 

[theguardianII]

My gut is telling me that Zadorov is going to sign. Millstein is trying to squeeze as much as he can out of the Canucks but he’ll take the “final offer”.

If he waits until Hronek is resolved then Zadorov's value could increase by 10%.
Hronek goes and then Soucy and Hughes are the heavy weights and the rest are 5/6 dmen. Soucy gets promoted to #2.

How's that gonna make the team better?

I am not sure that it isn't the Canucks trying to not usurp the NHL playoffs. I think teams were sternly talked to in the past for diverting attention away from the playoffs.

 

[MS]

My gut is telling me that Zadorov is going to sign. Millstein is trying to squeeze as much as he can out of the Canucks but he’ll take the “final offer”.

I have basically the same feeling. Both parties mutually want to re-sign but both are trying to make the other party blink first.

 

[Vector]

Mikheyev:
-Mikheyev was offered to two teams not long after the Lindholm trade
-they are back to trying to get rid of him and don't love the feedback they have got
-Canucks feel the next version of Mikheyev is going to be much better
-teams are less worried about his knee and more about his confidence
-retaining salary on Mikheyev goes against what the Canucks are trying to do
-Canucks feel they should be able to get rid of Mikheyev without paying but teams are asking for assets; Seravalli says something like a 2nd round pick or equivalent

Laine:
-teams are not comfortable with Laine
-probably not a Tocchet player but no one would have the same about Kessel

Zadorov:
-Canucks are well aware of his demands
-unless there's a significant movement from Zadorov, Canucks are not willing to pay the dollars and term
-thinks it's more likely Zadorov and Milstein blinks before the Canucks but he'll most likely go to market

Hronek:
-deadline is not the draft but arbitration filing date
-thinks arbitration is absolute nonsense for this player
-either re-sign him or trade him over the next three weeks

Guentzel:
-doesn't think the Canucks are a long shot
-familiarty is hugely important
-playing on a team with a chance to win is important

Duhaime:
-would assume interest is still there but haven't heard anything concretely
-what are the Canucks willing to pay bottom of the line-up guys is the question about Duhaime

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Mikheyev:
-Mikheyev was offered to two teams not long after the Lindholm trade
-they are back to trying to get rid of him and don't love the feedback they have got
-Canucks feel the next version of Mikheyev is going to be much better
-teams are less worried about his knee and more about his confidence
-retaining salary on Mikheyev goes against what the Canucks are trying to do
-Canucks feel they should be able to get rid of Mikheyev without paying but teams are asking for assets; Seravalli says something like a 2nd round pick or equivalent

Laine:
-teams are not comfortable with Laine
-probably not a Tocchet player but no one would have the same about Kessel

Zadorov:
-Canucks are well aware of his demands
-unless there's a significant movement from Zadorov, Canucks are not willing to pay the dollars and term
-thinks it's more likely Zadorov and Milstein blinks before the Canucks but he'll most likely go to market

Hronek:
-deadline is not the draft but arbitration filing date
-thinks arbitration is absolute nonsense for this player
-either re-sign him or trade him over the next three weeks

Guentzel:
-doesn't think the Canucks are a long shot
-familiarty is hugely important
-playing on a team with a chance to win is important

Duhaime:
-would assume interest is still there but haven't heard anything concretely
-what are the Canucks willing to pay bottom of the line-up guys is the question about Duhaime

Again with Mikheyev, there's two options:
1. Take back another crap contract
2. Pay assets to move him

If they don't like #2 they have to do #1 unless they wait which I don't believe they can afford to do.

 

[Jerry the great]

Yeah, I find it very frustrating when people act like signing some 15-point 4th liner for $2 million is somehow 'replacing Joshua' or '80% of Joshua' or good math in any way.

Joshua was basically a quality 2nd liner here last year. You aren't replacing him by overpaying 4th liners.



One of the reports about 2 weeks ago was that 'the Canucks weren't willing to go to $3 million for Joshua'. I thought that implied that was what it would take but maybe it was the team's ceiling.

I don't know if that 15 point 4th liner comment is because i brought up Blais earlier, but I never suggested he could replace anything other than Joshua's physicality and i SAF didn't say anything about paying him $2MM. he's an NHL min candidate.

I like Joshua and want him back.

$84MM payroll (including Mikheyev) is enough to pay Joshua $4MM, Zadorov $5MM, Blueger $2.05MM, Hronek $7.5MM and Myers $2.75MM. with $4MM left over to upgrade 3RHD from Juulsen to something better. giving term on the bigger deals might shave enough off the cap hits to upgrade the top 6 without moving Mikheyev. Someone like Victor Arvidsson can probably be squeezed in and might not require more than a 1 or 2 year deal.

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

Trade 5M Garland with 5M Mikheylev and resign Joshua and Lindholm.

 

[Wisp]

Trade 5M Garland with 5M Mikheylev and resign Joshua and Lindholm.

lol you could do a lot better with 10mill of flex than that.

 

[SelltheTeamFrancesco]

A lot of people here were cool with letting Tanev go. Maybe they can learn the hard way again.

It’s not as simple as who you let go but who you bring in. They were okay letting Markstrom go because they had Demko. They tried to replace Tanev with Hamonic good luck with that. And they did not even bother replacing Toffoli.

 

[JT Milker]

Paying a 2nd to move Mikheyev is an absolute no brainer and hopefully we’re just posturing.

 

[Donuts]

Mik + 3rd or 4th to chicago

 

[overboard]

I don't see much similarity in our situation this off-season and the 2020 off-season.

First, these are radically different front offices in terms of competence and execution. Also, just the raw available man-hours of attention differs wildly. 'Nuff said on that.

Second, Benning and Co showed no interest in even engaging the players they let go. By all reports, they didn't even make a phone call to Tanev's agent. They had pretty clearly moved on from these assets and had other targets in mind.

Conversely, our current overlords have shown that they not only understand the value of our impending UFA's (add Hronek in here too), but that they are actively pursuing all of them and are trying to get them to commit at numbers that make sense for the team to be competitive. So - the total opposite of Benning's FO.

Lastly, Rutherford and Allvin have been very clear that they won't abandon the future health of the club to go for the Cup. They're not willing to empty the tank completely for this, as they want performance longevity for the franchise. We may or may not agree with this, but they've been pretty clear communicators on this front.

The Benning regime were awful communicators in every way, and never explicitly stated any such plan. But they certainly acted as if they were willing to burn it all down every year to shove all their chips in with a "make the playoffs and anything can happen" philosophy.

So yeah - while some of our UFA's may walk, it won't be because of anything like 2020.

As Vector pointed out - there has to be a ceiling for every guy...and if their agents aren't willing to sit below that, there's not much more they can do.

 

[Tact]

I think Zadorov, Hronek and Blueger are priorities to re-sign imo especially now that we’ve conceded on Lindholm.

Mikheyev must be dumped. If that report of a 2nd round pick is true, I’m not sure why there is any hesitation - that’s a steal.

Depending on Joshua’s number - I’m ok with playing hardball and letting him walk if it’s 4M+. I’d rather use that money on trying to get Guentzel here for Pettersson.

 

[Burke's Evil Spirit]

I'm someone who is a big believer in momentum, 'vibe' around the team, sense of direction playing into the results a team generates more than just looking at names on paper and trying to project.

If the team loses warriors like Joshua and Zadorov while keeping a non-contributor like Mikheyev, I'd bet we'll see a massive sag in performance next year. This is what happened in 2007 when management didn't back up the players, and this is what happened in 2020 when management didn't back up the players.

There is a 0% chance that you'd see Mikheyev back if he was on TB or Vegas. This is a litmus test for management to get shit done and be a cutthroat big boy club, and if they end up bringing back Mikheyev over Zadorov/Joshua it's just a massive failure.

I see your point but I don't see the situations as exactly comparable. A big problem with the 2020 situation is cap space freed by not re-signing anyone was completely blown - on Holtby, Schmidt, Hamonic and Virtanen.

You know who else had good vibes? The 2021 Florida Panthers. First playoff series win in 25 years, a young team on the rise, etc, etc. Then they dumped off Huberdeau and Weegar to land Tkachuk, and now they're gonna win a Cup.

All that matters for the Canucks next year is to bring in more high-end pieces.

If Joshua and Zadorov are gone, but like, Duhaine, Dillon, and Guentzel are here next year, nobody's going to care.

 

[MS]

I see your point but I don't see the situations as exactly comparable. A big problem with the 2020 situation is cap space freed by not re-signing anyone was completely blown - on Holtby, Schmidt, Hamonic and Virtanen.

You know who else had good vibes? The 2021 Florida Panthers. First playoff series win in 25 years, a young team on the rise, etc, etc. Then they dumped off Huberdeau and Weegar to land Tkachuk, and now they're gonna win a Cup.

All that matters for the Canucks next year is to bring in more high-end pieces.

If Joshua and Zadorov are gone, but like, Duhaine, Dillon, and Guentzel are here next year, nobody's going to care.

I said as much in a follow-up post.

If they bring in Guentzel or Brady Tkachuk or something then obviously that's fine.

If Mikheyev is still here, Joshua/Zadorov are gone, and the big offseason acquisition with that money is ... Teravainen, or something, the guys in the room are not going to be in a good place going into next year.